2020 Presidential Election

[YmoBeThere]

Religious freedom is near the top of the list.

I'm curious as to what extent this is perceived as being under should Biden win?

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

See my earlier point regarding changing the subject from Trump’s handling of COVID. White evangelical support for Trump has slipped during the COVID crisis. More time talking about Trump’s record on judges and less time talking about swallowing bleach and UV lightbulbs is a net positive.

A few other considerations:

1 The last SCOTUS term made it far from clear that the court is one vote from overturning Roe.

2. Disaffected social conservatives care about a range of court issues, not just abortion. Religious freedom is near the top of the list.

This election is going to come down to turn out. This bumps the needle in both directions.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Contested election. States with legal challenges. Uncertainty about how to count votes and so on... and here we are with an 8 person Supreme Court that can be deadlocked 4-4.
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So the push from GOP Senators in favor of voting is that it will be so that IF the election is contested, it will before a 9 member court.

[YmoBeThere]

This election is going to come down to turn out. This bumps the needle in both directions.

I would think it has less of an impact, albeit slight, if a nomination is put out earlier and seen as a likely confirmation by inauguration day. To the extent that the nomination could be viewed as being in jeopardy, it bolsters the incumbent's chandes at higher turnout in his favor.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I would think it has less of an impact, albeit slight, if a nomination is put out earlier and seen as a likely confirmation by inauguration day. To the extent that the nomination could be viewed as being in jeopardy, it bolsters the incumbent's chandes at higher turnout in his favor.

Except that in the incumbent loses in a landslide, the ability to push a nominee through during a lame duck session (should be) nigh impossible.

[Furniture]

This election is going to come down to turn out. This bumps the needle in both directions.

We were watching tv when the news broke. My son was on his iPad not paying attention. He somehow subconsciously heard and said “what?”. He was a Bernie fan and isn’t too excited about Biden. I really believe that this will motivate the young voters even more...

[mph]

This election is going to come down to turn out. This bumps the needle in both directions.

There are two factors at play. First, does this provide a roughly equal bump in Democrats’ and Republicans’ motivation to turn out? Probably. Second, how motivated are Democrats and Republicans in the status quo. Democrats are already very motivated to turn out, if not for their love of Biden, then for their hatred of Trump. That, plus changing the subject from COVID makes this a positive development for Trump.

[CameronBornAndBred]

There are two factors at play. First, does this provide a roughly equal bump in Democrats’ and Republicans’ motivation to turn out? Probably. Second, how motivated are Democrats and Republicans in the status quo. Democrats are already very motivated to turn out, if not for their love of Biden, then for their hatred of Trump. That, plus changing the subject from COVID makes this a positive development for Trump.

People are dying. They will continue to die. That isn't going to change. Tonight and this week, the SCOTUS will play heavy in the election, but COVID is not going away. Not in the long run.

[mph]

People are dying. They will continue to die. That isn't going to change. Tonight and this week, the SCOTUS will play heavy in the election, but COVID is not going away. Not in the long run.

I agree. I’m not saying that people will stop talking and caring about COVID. That’s still going to be the primary election issue. But an ongoing confirmation process is the middle of an election is unprecedented and will demand a lot of media coverage as well as discussion in the presidential debates. Is that enough to swing the election? I have no idea.

[tommy]

First thought: Of course Trump and McConnell will jam a nominee through, and get him or her (probably her) confirmed in between Election Day and mid-January when the new President (if Biden wins) takes over and a new Senate is sworn in. Lame duck status be damned. What McConnell did and said around Merrick Garland will be irrelevant, and the hypocrisy of it be damned.


Timing is not an issue. It was 2 months between nomination and confirmation for Gorsuch. For Kavanaugh, even with all the extra stuff, it was 3 months. They have 4 months now. There’s time. It’s done.


Three things I have thought about (and some of this has been mentioned by other posters already) though that could possibly — possibly — derail this.


One: Trump would be much smarter to leave the issue on the table, and be able to argue to the Republicans who he needs to “come home” in order for him to win the election that they need to get out there and give me your vote so I can fill the spot rather than Biden. Counter: The next smart thing Trump does will be the first. He’ll listen to the pointy heads from the Federalist Society telling him to fill it while you can.


Two: The Chair of the Judiciary Committee is Lindsey Graham. Graham of course is Trump’s BFF, and you would think he’d do what he’s told. Two related issues on that. One is that Graham is on record in 2018 stating that if a SCOTUS seat opens in 2020, it should not be filled until after the election. Graham is in a difficult fight to retain his seat in South Carolina. His opponent’s main line of attack is that Graham is a flip flopper, with some well-done ads showing Graham highly critical of Trump during 2016, and now with him singing Trump’s praises as his BFF now. This would be the mother of all flip flops, right in the middle of his fight for his own political life. McConnell has already (!) come out and said the nominee will get a vote in the Senate, but what if Graham won’t schedule hearings?


Three: There are a number of other Republican Senators who are up for re election now who could seal their own fates by getting on board with this. Susan Collins is one. She's already said she's a "no" in fact. McSally in AZ is another, though she may be finished anyway. That could motivate her in either direction. Gardner largely the same in Colorado. If he goes along with this, he’s buried 12 feet underground, not 6. Tillis in NC would have a very difficult decision as well.

And then there are those GOP Senators who are not on the ballot this year. What about Murkowski? I could certainly see her as a “no” on this. (is she already?). Others who I could certainly see putting their foot down on this are Romney (who did vote to convict Trump) and Alexander, an old lion of the Senate, who also has respect for the traditions and for fairness, and who has nothing to fear from Trump. Also worth noting is that Chuck Grassley, former Chair of Judiciary, is also on record from 2018, in the same article in which Graham is quoted, as opposing the confirmation of a new SCOTUS justice in 2020. Will certainly be interesting to see what these folks say in the next few days as the media sticks microphones in their faces and tries to pin them down to a position.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I agree. I’m not saying that people will stop talking and caring about COVID. That’s still going to be the primary election issue. But an ongoing confirmation process is the middle of an election is unprecedented and will demand a lot of media coverage as well as discussion in the presidential debates. Is that enough to swing the election? I have no idea.

This actually has me thinking about the predicted "October Surprise", which is Barr releasing a public statement on the Durham report. As of tonight, it would be almost laughable if he does that. Hard to muddy the waters any more than they are right now. Getting hard to focus on anything through all the silt.

[Furniture]

I think it’s a tricky situation for Trump. If he goes ahead and nominates someone how does he speak about it on the election trail without it not being inflammatory. What I mean is I think that sort on inflammatory discourse would probably energize Biden voters even more than his own base...

[PackMan97]

The outcome of the election could extend at least 14 days.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mic...marked-on-time

[CameronBornAndBred]

The outcome of the election could extend at least 14 days.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mic...marked-on-time

I've got no complaints with that. Technically, the voters decided to go stand in line at the post office instead of the polls, but they still voted by the third.
I wonder how many people will think that merely putting it into a mailbox on the third (or even the second) will get their envelope stamped.

[duke2x]

Nah, you don’t know that. It could just as easily hurt a Republican in a close race, They (Republican candidate) are in a close race because a lot of people in their constituency vote Democratic. Why assume that what Markey said would influence more people to choose to vote for Republicans rather than Democrats?

Most Americans are centrist and a bit lazy at heart. Centrist and lazy voters don't want to make major changes to American government structure. While you might get broad support for a Constitutional amendment to modify judicial appointments after the past 2 elections, Markey goes miles beyond what FDR was criticized for doing. It's a goldmine opportunity to look like a centrist even if Trump ends up nominating a conservative judge.

The election--across the board--has not shifted from a referendum on Trump to issues. How Trump handles the Supreme Court vacancy could very well determine the outcome. All 3 branches are still very much up for grabs.

[CameronBornAndBred]

The outcome of the election could extend at least 14 days.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/mic...marked-on-time

PS...I doubt the election hinges on Michigan. At least on their last minute mail in ballots.

[duke2x]

So the push from GOP Senators in favor of voting is that it will be so that IF the election is contested, it will before a 9 member court.

The real issue with the vacant seat is that it guarantees 3 Democrat appointees could hear any case involving the election. 4-4 means the decision of the lower court stands. 5-3 means it is overruled. John Roberts, the swing vote at the moment, might have the sole decision of the President of the United States.

[Bostondevil]

See my earlier point regarding changing the subject from Trump’s handling of COVID. White evangelical support for Trump has slipped during the COVID crisis. More time talking about Trump’s record on judges and less time talking about swallowing bleach and UV lightbulbs is a net positive.

A few other considerations:

1 The last SCOTUS term made it far from clear that the court is one vote from overturning Roe.

2. Disaffected social conservatives care about a range of court issues, not just abortion. Religious freedom is near the top of the list.

OK, maybe not just announced. If the Republicans push through a nomination and get a new justice seated, then covid takes center stage and there isn't any Court buffer. As you said, evangelical support for Trump is slipping. If they don't need to vote for him to get the Court anymore, why would they change their minds back?

[Skydog]

Even if 3 Republican Senators say they won’t confirm the 4th one would be committing political suicide if he denied his conservative constituents a SC seat. He would have to switch parties.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Even if 3 Republican Senators say they won’t confirm the 4th one would be committing political suicide if he denied his conservative constituents a SC seat. He would have to switch parties.

(S)he might be welcomed with open arms. 20 years ago that would not be out of the question; it is now though.