Originally Posted by
OldPhiKap
Fair point.
If I had to pick a bet right now, I still think that Kamala Harris has a big upside that is not showing up in the polls yet. I see Warren winning out the most progressive wing of the party over Bernie (they seem to be fighting over the same 30%-35% or so), but Bernie staying in forever and basically diluting Warren all the way through. Someone has to hope that Biden stumbles, and that they can ride right through the center of the party. Which leads me back to Kamala.
Trump looks to be 99.9999999999% sure of getting his nomination, and then I would guess around 35%-40% of getting reelected. Which is still pretty high, but not pick-'em against the field.