2020 Presidential Election

[JasonEvans]

Gillibrand announced her exploratory committee a few days ago, so she should be in the first group. And I think Harris should still be in the second group (unless I missed her announcement).

I foolishly got Gillibrand and Harris confused for a moment. I've been sorta buried in Brexit news this week at CNN-international so I am less plugged in than usual when it comes to U.S. politics.

[lotusland]

Apparently Maryland Governor Larry Hogan is an actual potential GOP primary candidate who is testing the water. I don’t know anything about the guy but I doubt Bill Kristol’s hand picked candidate has much of a shot.

https://apple.news/AHZc1F-RNQAKUyuAcPC2wpA

[RPS]

(I'm not counting crackpots and others who have no shot)

Any number of people on that list (or almost any list) might be considered a crackpot or as having no shot.

This wasn't that long ago.



In my voting lifetime (which for president began in 1976), the only winning presidential candidate a significant number of people didn't think had no shot was probably George H.W. Bush.

[OldPhiKap]

Any number of people on that list (or almost any list) might be considered a crackpot or as having no shot.

This wasn't that long ago.



In my voting lifetime (which for president began in 1976), the only winning presidential candidate a significant number of people didn't think had no shot was probably George H.W. Bush.

Good point. In ‘92, many major Democratic candidates (Mario Cuomo comes to mind) skipped the race because GHWBush “could not be beat” and had a crazy high favorabilitiy rating. Clinton, a rising Democratic star but still not a made man, was able to win the primary. Then the economy collapsed . . . .

Game, Clinton.

[Rich]

Any number of people on that list (or almost any list) might be considered a crackpot or as having no shot.

This wasn't that long ago.



In my voting lifetime (which for president began in 1976), the only winning presidential candidate a significant number of people didn't think had no shot was probably George H.W. Bush.

Wow, that video is fantastic. I love the reaction of the ABC commentators. If I was a leader in the Democrat party I would plaster that video all over the place as a "Never Forget" type of thing.

[Mike Corey]

To be fair, most Republican leaders were just as stupefied.

(And still are.)

[BandAlum83]

Well, we can just cut and paste it into a new post every now and then as the list grows/shrinks:

• Declared or already have exploratory committee (I'm not counting crackpots and others who have no shot): Sen. Warren, Secy. Castro, Rep. John Delaney, Rep. Tusli Gabbard, Sen. Kamala Harris (5)
• Major politicians who look really, really likely to run: Beto, Biden, Booker, Brown, Bloomberg (the five Bs), Gillibrand, Klobuchar(7)
• Lesser known politicians who have expressed some interest in running: South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg; Washington Gov. Jay Inslee; LA Mayor Eric Garcetti; Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper; fmr. Attorney Gen. Eric Holder; Va Gov. Terry McAuliffe; Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan; CA Rep. Eric Swalwell; losing FLA/GA governor candidates Stacy Abrams and Andrew Gillum; New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu (11)
• Celebs/Businessmen who look likely to run: Fmr. Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz; Oprah; Angelina Jolie; George Clooney; the Rock; Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg (6)

That "Lesser known politicians" group could easily be expanded if I wanted to. I could add NY Mayor De Blasio, Terry McAuliffe, Sen. Michael Bennett, Sen. Jeff Merkley, Rep. Adam Schiff (his profile could soar as he presides over Trump investigations, and probably a few more.

-Jason "I think the field will get to be close to 20 with folks who actually have the credentials to be considered serious candidates... though most won't get enough money or attention to even leave the starting gate" Evans

my over/under of 18.5 is looking like a good opening line.

[BandAlum83]

Wow, that video is fantastic. I love the reaction of the ABC commentators. If I was a leader in the Democrat party I would plaster that video all over the place as a "Never Forget" type of thing.

It's the Democratic party. Members of the Democratic party are Democrats.

[PackMan97]

[*]Celebs/Businessmen who look likely to run: Fmr. Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz; Oprah; Angelina Jolie; George Clooney; the Rock; Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg (6)

I would vote for the Rock straight up...then watch the Pay-per-view wrestling match between him and Putin with a nuclear arms treaty as the prize! Could be a lot of fun!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

No surprise, but Kamala Harris is officially in.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Buttigieg from South Bend is in. As the article notes at the end, it is somewhat surprising that he chose to go national before going for governor, but perhaps he feels that his message plays better nationally than in Indiana.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/23/u...gtype=Homepage

[elvis14]

Buttigieg from South Bend is in. As the article notes at the end, it is somewhat surprising that he chose to go national before going for governor, but perhaps he feels that his message plays better nationally than in Indiana.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/23/u...gtype=Homepage

That article had a link to another article which is a Democratic Candidate Tracker.
I didn't see a link for the GOP's candidate tracker yet, should be interesting to see who runs on that side and when they start announcing.

[Acymetric]

That article had a link to another article which is a Democratic Candidate Tracker.
I didn't see a link for the GOP's candidate tracker yet, should be interesting to see who runs on that side and when they start announcing.

I would think it would be advantageous for a Republican candidate to wait as long as possible to declare. Among other reasons, running against a sitting candidate from your own party is a hard line to walk between attracting voters and alienating them. The closer you are to the primaries, the less a problem that is.

[RPS]

The Bulwark is a new and unabashedly conservative site, begun from the ashes of The Weekly Standard. Since it is also aggressively anti-Trump, it offers an interesting perspective on the presidential race.

Power Rankings start here. It opens Bernie, Kamala, Beto...

A very interesting analysis of campaign logos is here.

[Nick]

Does anybody know what the Clintons are going to do this cycle? Do they have any favorites in the race they're likely to support? How much sway do they have left?

[luvdahops]

Bloomberg weighs in

https://www.apnews.com/514f2670506b44e599e076ff49f8d25e

If he runs as a Democrat, he will be formidable in my view

[left_hook_lacey]

Does anybody know what the Clintons are going to do this cycle? Do they have any favorites in the race they're likely to support? How much sway do they have left?

I thought there was a lot in the tea leaves that Hillary would run again? http://fortune.com/2018/11/12/hillar...resident-2020/


I wonder how Kamala Harris entering the race will affect Hillary's decision to run or not run? I could see it really bothering her if after all these years of trying and coming so close, some Johnny-Kamala-lately just prances right in and becomes the first female president in her first try.

[mattman91]

I thought there was a lot in the tea leaves that Hillary would run again? http://fortune.com/2018/11/12/hillar...resident-2020/


I wonder how Kamala Harris entering the race will affect Hillary's decision to run or not run? I could see it really bothering her if after all these years of trying and coming so close, some Johnny-Kamala-lately just prances right in and becomes the first female president in her first try.

Hillaryious

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Does anybody know what the Clintons are going to do this cycle? Do they have any favorites in the race they're likely to support? How much sway do they have left?

I think that there are many who will see them as toxic and try to keep their distance, while others will embrace them, particularly because they can help raise a ton of money.

[OldPhiKap]

I thought there was a lot in the tea leaves that Hillary would run again? http://fortune.com/2018/11/12/hillar...resident-2020/

I always assumed this was just a trial balloon, and that the response was unfavorable. But who knows.

I doubt HRC would finish in the top 3 in Iowa or NH this time around.