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  1. #2641
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap
    Because I am substantially invested in the market for the long term and I am not smart enough to figure out precise short-term variations. (Which I assume is part of your point, no?) But to the extent I took some profits recently and am holding those proceeds in safer assets for the moment I guess I have hedged ('lightly wagered") in that direction.
    Communication breakdown. I never meant you should consider trying to time the market! That's usually a loser's game and there are many players.

    I was merely addressing your post below, which I think is unlikely to occur. I was merely offering a DBR wager. The stock market usually increases in the 18 months after an inversion. Just trying to play the odds.

    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap
    Having said that, this president has repeatedly held the rising stock market out as the measure of his economic prowess. Live by the sword, die by the sword as the old saying goes. If the market tanks, I don't think people will buy his argument that it is all the Fed's fault (and also ignore that Trump appointed the Fed Chief against whom he now rails).

    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap
    To the topic of the thread, do we both agree that a sagging economy makes it more difficult for Trump to get re-elected? And if so, that there is a risk that a trade war could cause the chance of such a sag to increase? Or that there are plenty of causes outside of any president's control which could cause such a sag? That's really the point I was hoping to make.
    Yes, to all.

  2. #2642
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Durham-- 2 miles from Cameron, baby!
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post

    The global economy is slowing, and there are some incredibly disruptive possibilities out there such as Brexit, which can tank the economy wholly independent of Trump. And while an inverted yield curve has preceded those recessions, in some instances I believe that it preceded it by more than a year so it is not a direct correlation thing.
    Yield curve inversion = recession within 18 months. At least thatís what they say on Planet Money / The Indicator.

    This economy has been boosted by a huge tax cut and a boost in spending. But those dogs are pretty gassed at this point.

    A recession is coming, but my guess is it doesnít get real until after the election. Voters need about 6 months before a recession becomes a factor in their voting, anyway. JMHO.

  3. #2643
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Durham-- 2 miles from Cameron, baby!
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    4. One of the most prudent ways to stop or minimize the probable recession is to borrow substantial 30 year money (@ ~ 2%) and substantially repair US infrastructure.
    Odds on this actually happening in the current political environment?

    About the same as those that UNC will either quit cheating or will be punished when they do cheat.

  4. #2644
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Durham-- 2 miles from Cameron, baby!
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    It's been many years (a couple decades) since I've paid any attention to the Dow. I prefer the S&P 500.
    Youíre right about the Dow, but I donít think that was dudogís point. I may be wrong about that, however.

  5. #2645
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    would Republicans consider a primary challenge against Trump?
    Mark Sanford keeps on making noise... but even if he gets in (and I think he will) I'm not sure the GOP will even stage a debate for him. Heck, I think some state parties have declared they will not even have a primary and they are fully pledged to Trump.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  6. #2646
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    An elected president has only failed to earn his partyís renomination once:

    https://www.npr.org/sections/politic...nominatio.html

    Any challenge would be symbolic. But there is a world after Trump and the GOP will have to figure out who will lead it, so ...

  7. #2647
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Looks like Politico is reading DBR:

    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/...n-risk-1661317

  8. #2648
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Dow down 800 points for the day. It's about the same place it was the first week of January 2018.

    Recession or no, flat isn't especially good for a president either.

    Just this year, it's been below 22,000 and above 27,000. I assume big business likes stability, though not as much as tax cuts. I've always wondered when talking heads spout recommendations (say Cramer or Motley Fool) if they are just making money off the bumps and dips they cause. Think of what the president could do with a tweet if he were so inclined.

  9. #2649
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Dow down 800 points for the day. It's about the same place it was the first week of January 2018.

    Recession or no, flat isn't especially good for a president either.

    Just this year, it's been below 22,000 and above 27,000. I assume big business likes stability, though not as much as tax cuts. I've always wondered when talking heads spout recommendations (say Cramer or Motley Fool) if they are just making money off the bumps and dips they cause. Think of what the president could do with a tweet if he were so inclined.
    You know, if the stock market or job numbers or some other major economic indicator takes a prolonged hit, it will be interesting to see how Trump reacts. He was lashing out everything today, including the "CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!" While I don't know it personally, I assume the yield curve is ashamed of its current inversion and would like as much as anyone to see itself righted. Anyway, I guess its not necessarily a hot take but we could be in for a wild presidential ride if things don't go Trump's way and I find myself wondering how Democratic candidates respond to and message around some of these drops and issues when Trump has more or less charted out the territory that everything is to blame...

    ...on the flip side, the Fed is probably a good thing for Trump to attack from a political standpoint. It is the very definition of an opaque, rigged system to many Americans and that's assuming they have a general understanding of what it does.

    ..Spread is way too much as other countries say THANK YOU to clueless Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. Germany, and many others, are playing the game! CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE! We should easily be reaping big Rewards & Gains, but the Fed is holding us back. We will Win!

  10. #2650
    Quote Originally Posted by alteran View Post
    Odds on this actually happening in the current political environment?

    About the same as those that UNC will either quit cheating or will be punished when they do cheat.
    Agreed, odds of doing the prudent/right thing are pathetically low.

    It is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the USA, which any prudent CFO would capitalize upon.

  11. #2651
    This illustrates the 18-24 month delay.

    -1x-1.jpg

  12. #2652
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    Think of what the president could do with a tweet if he were so inclined.
    Given that he is in the real estate business, and is highly leveraged in it,* what would he want to do — maybe badger the Fed to keep borrowing costs low? Hmmm?

    Nah, couldn’t be.


    * at least he was. His tax returns would bear out his current debt but we’re never going to see those.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  13. #2653
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Given that he is in the real estate business, and is highly leveraged in it,* what would he want to do ó maybe badger the Fed to keep borrowing costs low? Hmmm?

    Nah, couldnít be.


    * at least he was. His tax returns would bear out his current debt but weíre never going to see those.
    C'mon, you're not that old! Maybe in our lifetime. Has to work it's way through our courts. Right to a speedy trial and all.

  14. #2654
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Jeffrey View Post
    Agreed, odds of doing the prudent/right thing are pathetically low.

    It is a once in a lifetime opportunity for the USA, which any prudent CFO would capitalize upon.
    Much of the blame for the failure to act also lies downstream at the state and local level. There is tremendous demand for municipal debt and a lack of corresponding supply right now so state and local governments can finance projects at record low levels, but though there are definitely some projects getting done, there are not nearly enough. Future mayors and governors (and taxpayers) will regret this inactivity.

    One of Trump's key campaign promises was focusing on infrastructure, and this was something that both sides seemed to actually agree on. Both other than a wall project I occasionally hear about, there has been very little done and infrastructure seems to have become a very low priority.

  15. #2655
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    Much of the blame for the failure to act also lies downstream at the state and local level. There is tremendous demand for municipal debt and a lack of corresponding supply right now so state and local governments can finance projects at record low levels, but though there are definitely some projects getting done, there are not nearly enough. Future mayors and governors (and taxpayers) will regret this inactivity.

    One of Trump's key campaign promises was focusing on infrastructure, and this was something that both sides seemed to actually agree on. Both other than a wall project I occasionally hear about, there has been very little done and infrastructure seems to have become a very low priority.
    Strongly agree. Exactly why I bought shares in a concrete company the day after Trump was surprisingly elected. My former neighbor, who runs a very large PE firm, made many substantial infrastructure purchases. So far, all dogs!

  16. #2656
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Will be official Thursday. Hickenlooper out of POTUS race (no chance) and will run for Senate representing Colorado (where he has a very good chance).
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  17. #2657
    Join Date
    Dec 2014
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    The Mooch says Trump won't run in 2020 (end of article). Where the heck did that come from?

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...qnN?li=BBnb7Kz

    That would be entertaining.

  18. #2658
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Will be official Thursday. Hickenlooper out of POTUS race (no chance) and will run for Senate representing Colorado (where he has a very good chance).
    PS...Hickenlooper running for the seat in Colorado is more of a threat to Donald Trump than if he had miraculously taken the Dem nomination.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  19. #2659
    Well, this is going to add fuel to the Epstein conspiracy fire. WaPo reporting that autopsy revealed neck breaks more commonly associated with homicide by strangulation.

    Here's another article summarizing the WaPo story since it's behind a pay wall.

  20. #2660
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Durham-- 2 miles from Cameron, baby!
    Quote Originally Posted by dudog84 View Post
    The Mooch says Trump won't run in 2020 (end of article). Where the heck did that come from?

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...qnN?li=BBnb7Kz

    That would be entertaining.
    The Mooch and Trump are not exactly on speaking terms these days.

    I donít think Trumpís personality is such that he would willingly not run.

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