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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!

    2020 Presidential Election

    It is with great sadness that I find myself on January 1st of 2019 opening the 2020 Presidential Election thread. Sigh... the process of running for the highest office in the land is a long one.

    For those of you who have not read the previous political threads on the DBR, I feel some explanation is necessary. Under most circumstances, political talk is illegal on the DBR and will result in infractions. However, we do allow it here with one very, very important caveat.

    You posts cannot be partisan in nature. This is a thread for dispassionate analysis and discussion. Ideally, no one should be able to tell from your posts if you are a D or an R; if you are Red or Blue or Green; if you are liberal or conservative.

    If that sounds like a challenge for you, my advice is simple... stay away!! Infractions are handed out swiftly in this thread and they are typically much harsher than in other threads. I often bypass the "Warning" stage and get right to putting people in time out if they cross the partisan line.

    With that out of the way, I welcome all of you to the conversation. Have at it and enjoy!

    -Jason "Lizzie Warren is in... and that is a bad sign for her chances. Typically, the strongest candidates wait as long as they can to get in the race. I expect Biden, Beto, Booker, Bloomberg, Harris, and Gillibrand to wait until at least February to join the fray" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    -Jason "Lizzie Warren is in... and that is a bad sign for her chances. Typically, the strongest candidates wait as long as they can to get in the race. I expect Biden, Beto, Booker, Bloomberg, Harris, and Gillibrand to wait until at least February to join the fray" Evans
    I could have counted at least 10 other candidates that I would have predicted to announce before Warren, especially with all of her talk about how she wasn't interested in running. I think you are correct that the stronger candidates wait; they don't need to jump in so early and introduce themselves.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  3. #3
    God help us and save us.

    What a dreadful thread to see...
    Nothing incites bodily violence quicker than a Duke fan turning in your direction and saying 'scoreboard.'

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post

    Lizzie Warren is in... and that is a bad sign for her chances. Typically, the strongest candidates wait as long as they can to get in the race. I expect Biden, Beto, Booker, Bloomberg, Harris, and Gillibrand to wait until at least February to join the fray.
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I could have counted at least 10 other candidates that I would have predicted to announce before Warren, especially with all of her talk about how she wasn't interested in running. I think you are correct that the stronger candidates wait; they don't need to jump in so early and introduce themselves.
    Quoting the very first two posts of this thread. Back then, we were surprised that Warren jumped in so early, and several of us were prognosticating her losing effort.

    Maybe she knew what she was doing.
    Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders have broken out as frontrunners for young liberal voters, according to a new straw poll conducted by the progressive group NextGen, pulling ahead of former Vice President Joe Biden, who retains his lead in national polls as the first Democratic debates are about to begin here.

    The polling results to be released Tuesday afternoon, first viewed and reported by Yahoo News, show Warren with a huge lead among respondents ages 18 to 35, with 39 percent, compared with 26 percent for Sanders, the runner-up.
    Note that Biden still has the lead in the overall polls, but with the younger crowd it appears that Warren and Sanders are the ones to beat.
    Of course, this only matters if the younger voters actually get off the couch and vote, which is something they tend not to do.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/warren-ha...133454147.html
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
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    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Quoting the very first two posts of this thread. Back then, we were surprised that Warren jumped in so early, and several of us were prognosticating her losing effort.

    Maybe she knew what she was doing.

    Note that Biden still has the lead in the overall polls, but with the younger crowd it appears that Warren and Sanders are the ones to beat.
    Of course, this only matters if the younger voters actually get off the couch and vote, which is something they tend not to do.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/warren-ha...133454147.html

    As a person in the middle of that age group, that is really surprising to me. I don't think I know a single person who prefers Warren against the field.

    Edit:

    Those figures were from a total of 4,418 of participants who had signed on to the email and text-message lists for NextGen, a PAC run by billionaire liberal activist Tom Steyer. The results cannot be extrapolated to the electorate as a whole, or even Democratic primary voters
    I'm going to suggest this poll is not very representative.

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    I'm going to suggest this poll is not very representative.
    Ooooh, I missed that part. Yeah, that's like polling if K or Roy is the better coach at a game in Cameron.
    K would only win by a slight margin if they asked the same thing in Chapel Hill.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    It is with great sadness that I find myself on January 1st of 2019 opening the 2020 Presidential Election thread. Sigh... the process of running for the highest office in the land is a long one.
    You make it sound like your hands are bound here.

    You COULD, if you wanted to, wait until the 10th candidate has announced.

    OR, instead of doing it by candidate, you could just set a date like June 1, 2019 for when the thread will be started.

    OR, I could just ignore this thread if I don't like it. Which I'll do for several months. Catch up with y'all on June 1, 2019. Maybe. If the midterm thread is still open by then, I might just laugh and call if off.

  8. #8
    Only Shakespeare (translated from it's original Klingon) could do the first page of this thread justice.

    O, pardon me, thou bleeding piece of earth,
    That I am meek and gentle with these butchers!
    Thou art the ruins of the noblest man
    That ever lived in the tide of times.
    Woe to the hand that shed this costly blood!
    Over thy wounds now do I prophesy,--
    Which, like dumb mouths, do ope their ruby lips,
    To beg the voice and utterance of my tongue--
    A curse shall light upon the limbs of men;
    Domestic fury and fierce civil strife
    Shall cumber all the parts of DBR;
    Blood and destruction shall be so in use
    And dreadful objects so familiar
    That mothers shall but smile when they behold
    Their infants quarter'd with the hands of war;
    All pity choked with custom of fell deeds:
    And Jason's spirit, ranging for revenge,
    With Ate by his side come hot from hell,
    Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice
    Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war;
    That this foul deed shall smell above the earth
    With carrion men, groaning for burial.

  9. #9
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Only Shakespeare (translated from it's original Klingon) could do the first page of this thread justice.
    In Jason's thread-starter post, he also "doth protest too much, methinks." :-)

  10. #10
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    I'd tell ya, but then I'd have to kill ya
    Quote Originally Posted by Troublemaker View Post
    In Jason's thread-starter post, he also "doth protest too much, methinks." :-)
    I thought you were going to ignore this thread for 6 months. Didn't even last 2 hours. So much for resolutions.

  11. #11
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Anyone want to handicap whether there's a primary challenge on the republican side? Romney's op-ed seems to indicate it's not impossible.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    Anyone want to handicap whether there's a primary challenge on the republican side? Romney's op-ed seems to indicate it's not impossible.
    It could happen, but it would be political suicide.
    2015 DBR Rosterbation Champion

  13. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by mattman91 View Post
    It could happen, but it would be political suicide.
    Perhaps. I could see someone who has rock solid support in their own state challenging Trump and then surviving to retain their senate seat 4 years later.

  14. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by mattman91 View Post
    It could happen, but it would be political suicide.
    I could see an R throwing their name in the ring before eventually picking up a third party bid. That would make for fascinating drama over the next, uh, 22 months.

  15. #15
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    I think some Republicans will try to build out the infrastructure of a campaign organization very quietly in case Trump does not run in 2020.

    It is really sad for our country that much as a number of Republicans spent a large amount of time away from their jobs as public servants to spend many months campaigning in 2016, we will now have a number of Democrats spending almost two years campaigning and raising money rather than doing their day jobs. Though I guess some might argue that this is a good thing.

  16. #16
    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    Anyone want to handicap whether there's a primary challenge on the republican side? Romney's op-ed seems to indicate it's not impossible.
    I had posted this in an earlier, but it's interesting enough to post again.

    An ELECTED President has only ever been "primaried" (that is lost in their party's primary) once. That was Franklin Pierce (#14) who lose the 1856 Democratic primary to James Buchanan. Pierce's appeasement of the south led many northern abolitionists to seek another candidate.

    Four other Presidents did not win their primary, but none of them were elected.
    * John Tyler who lost the 1844 Whig primary after assuming the Presidency after the death of William Henry Harrison.
    * Millard Fillmore who lost the 1852 Whig primary after assuming the Presidency after the death of Zachary Taylor.
    * Andrew Johnson who lost the 1868 Democratic primary after assuming the Presidency after the assassination of Abraham Lincoln. We was also impeached and *barely* avoided being convicted by a Republican congress.
    * Chester Arthur who lost the 1884 Republican primary after assuming the Presidency after the assassination of James Garfield.

    A number of Presidents have had strong challenges that caused them to drop out before the nomination was decided. Namely Presidents Johnson and Truman.

    In recent history, it looks like Presidents who have a strong primary challenge usually end up losing the General election. I imagine party division is a factor here, hence the strong challenge.

    Ford (challenged by Reagan in 1976), Carter (challenged by Kennedy) in 1980, George H Bush (challenged by Buchanan) in 1992 all left the sitting Presidents vulnerable and a party somewhat divided, enough for them all to lose the election.

    Nixon (challenged by McCloskey) in 1972 appears to be the exception...and upon further review, I question if he were really challenged in the primary.

    [edit] to correct info on Nixon.
    Last edited by PackMan97; 01-02-2019 at 11:41 AM.

  17. #17
    Join Date
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    Norfolk, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Nixon (challenged by McCloskey) in 1972, Ford (challenged by Reagan in 1976), Carter (challenged by Kennedy) in 1980, George H Bush (challenged by Buchanan) in 1992 all left the sitting Presidents vulnerable and a party somewhat divided, enough for them all to lose the election.
    Nixon won the 1972 election. He defeated McGovern.
    Bob Green
    DBR Survivor Football Champion
    2010 & 2016

  18. #18
    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    Nixon won the 1972 election. He defeated McGovern.
    updated the post. I need to do my own research instead of relying on the interwebs. /facepalm

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    updated the post. I need to do my own research instead of relying on the interwebs. /facepalm
    You might be thinking Eugene McCarthy in 1968 against Nixon, although Nixon was not a sitting president.

    Turns out, there is a movement amongst some Republicans to basically cancel the primary and declare Trump the candidate. Will likely come to some sort of vote next month when the GOP meets in New Mexico. The Chairperson? Mitt's niece, who slapped Mitt this morning on Twitter for his op-ed against Trump.

    So, there's all that. Fun times.
    Last edited by OldPhiKap; 01-02-2019 at 12:14 PM.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  20. #20
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    I took a look at our 2016 thread (which was started in Feb of 2015, so we aren't that far off for 2020) and I had opened it with a prediction from Nate Silver.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/clint...151120593.html

    He did get it correct that HRC (unannounced at the time) would be the Dem candidate, but Trump was nowhere in his future. In fact, Jeb Bush and Scott Walker were tied for his bet. Pretty fun to look back at that, and put it in perspective where we are now.
    Long story short, predict now all you want, you will likely be wrong.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

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