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  1. #16121
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by mkirsh View Post
    Based on fallout from the last debate they are probably doing him a favor
    He should be thrilled. He gets to spend his first two minutes of the debate saying literally anything he wants to, without interruption.

    The rule I like is that further interruptions count against your time, so if Trump blabs constantly like last time, Biden will have about 5 minutes to himself to close out.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  2. #16122
    Join Date
    Jun 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    He should be thrilled. He gets to spend his first two minutes of the debate saying literally anything he wants to, without interruption.

    The rule I like is that further interruptions count against your time, so if Trump blabs constantly like last time, Biden will have about 5 minutes to himself to close out.
    5 (minutes)??? Biden would prefer 55. And he still might not finish in the allotted time. 😉

  3. #16123
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Steven43 View Post
    5 (minutes)??? Biden would prefer 55. And he still might not finish in the allotted time. 😉
    Joe Biden is a human filibuster.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  4. #16124
    In my state of FL, Republicans have almost 150,000 more new registered voters than Democrats do. Still calling my state a coin flip. Iíll be shocked if Biden wins by some of the numbers Iíve been reading in recent polls (where heís up by 4-7 points). But we shall see.

  5. #16125
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    He should be thrilled. He gets to spend his first two minutes of the debate saying literally anything he wants to, without interruption.

    The rule I like is that further interruptions count against your time, so if Trump blabs constantly like last time, Biden will have about 5 minutes to himself to close out.
    So I misread the rules. It's not JUST the first two minutes of the debate, it's the first two minutes that each candidate is given to reply to every answer. That is going to make for some interesting split screen faces throughout the night.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  6. #16126
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    So I misread the rules. It's not JUST the first two minutes of the debate, it's the first two minutes that each candidate is given to reply to every answer. That is going to make for some interesting split screen faces throughout the night.
    Right it's two minutes for the initial reply to the question and then open mic for back and forth after each person gets his first response.

  7. #16127
    Quote Originally Posted by SouthernDukie View Post
    In my state of FL, Republicans have almost 150,000 more new registered voters than Democrats do. Still calling my state a coin flip. Iíll be shocked if Biden wins by some of the numbers Iíve been reading in recent polls (where heís up by 4-7 points). But we shall see.
    Thatís a fascinating fact. What does ďnewĒ mean in this case ó since the 2018 election? I donít recall everything that happened in FL in the mid-terms, but I do recall the Dems falling short of nabbing the Governorís office and the Reps flipping a Senate seat.

    I agree that a 4-7 point Biden lead seems off. The 538 average is currently 3.7:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/florida/

    Add some regular polling error and the possibility that Trump voters are still being undercounted, and youíre prediction of a coin toss seems right to me.

  8. #16128
    Join Date
    Nov 2016
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    Thatís a fascinating fact. What does ďnewĒ mean in this case ó since the 2018 election? I donít recall everything that happened in FL in the mid-terms, but I do recall the Dems falling short of nabbing the Governorís office and the Reps flipping a Senate seat.

    I agree that a 4-7 point Biden lead seems off. The 538 average is currently 3.7:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...neral/florida/

    Add some regular polling error and the possibility that Trump voters are still being undercounted, and youíre prediction of a coin toss seems right to me.


    Polling errors can go either way. Nate Silver has Biden with 71% chance in Florida. Not a lock, but a little better than a coin flip.

  9. #16129
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    That’s a fascinating fact. What does “new” mean in this case — since the 2018 election? I don’t recall everything that happened in FL in the mid-terms, but I do recall the Dems falling short of nabbing the Governor’s office and the Reps flipping a Senate seat.

    I agree that a 4-7 point Biden lead seems off. The 538 average is currently 3.7:

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...neral/florida/

    Add some regular polling error and the possibility that Trump voters are still being undercounted, and you’re prediction of a coin toss seems right to me.
    Quote Originally Posted by curtis325 View Post
    Polling errors can go either way. Nate Silver has Biden with 71% chance in Florida. Not a lock, but a little better than a coin flip.
    Cato's question is important. Upthread, we wondered about the same with all of the new GOP registrations. That's wonderful and all that they are getting voters out, but do the new folks outnumber the gullywasher of Dems that 2018 produced?
    Also..."registered" does not equal "voter". Let's see how those folks do with a long line at the polls staring them in the face. (Under the Florida sun.)
    I truly believe Trump has shot himself in the foot with his discouraging mail in voting. (Which Florida is really good at doing, I hear.)
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  10. #16130
    Quote Originally Posted by curtis325 View Post
    Polling errors can go either way. Nate Silver has Biden with 71% chance in Florida. Not a lock, but a little better than a coin flip.
    Do you happen to recall what 538 said about DeSantis in 2018? He was not a favorite leading up to the election, but it turned out to be a coin toss.

  11. #16131
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    Do you happen to recall what 538 said about DeSantis in 2018? He was not a favorite leading up to the election, but it turned out to be a coin toss.
    Last forecast 538 had which was just a few days before the election had Gillum as a 4-point favorite, with a 78% likelihood of winning. He lost by about half a point, in what was deemed one of the biggest upsets of the night.

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