2020 Presidential Election

[sagegrouse]

I know she is barely on the fringes of the election but if I were Klobuchar's staff, I would be spending a lot of time figuring out how to make her appealing to African-Americans and other minorities (noting that these groups do not vote as a homogeneous block, as much as many would like us to think they do). Buttigieg clearly has his challenges in this area, as does Bloomberg. If she can wait out Biden and capture this constituency from him if he eventually runs out of money or steps aside for another reason, it could really launch her campaign. Minnesota actually has a fairly large minority population, though she would have to tread very carefully around Ellison and Omar (who likely wouldn't support her anyway) as they are potential lightning rods.

I agree about Klobuchar. Moreover, she is actually qualified to be President, with her wide-ranging experience, good relations with both parties on the Hill, and feisty nature. Can't say as much about Mayor Pete, who is amazing well-spoken and insightful but being a consultant in Afghanistan or a military intelligence officer are impressive bullets on a resume but not qualifications for dealing with affairs of state. I find Biden appealing -- must be the age thing -- but find weaknesses with both Sanders and Warren that go beyond their policy positions. Bloomberg -- let's see if he wins some votes somewhere first.

[DUKIECB]

I would go further and say the Democratic Party is not ready for Sanders. He has a great stump speech of totally unrealistic proposals not supported by the majority of the country

You have a source to cite on that? My take on Sanders proposals is this - while many of them may be unrealistic, isn't it better to dream big and then compromise to hopefully something meaningful that will pass? In other words if you begin your argument more conservatively where do you bargain from there? I think there is an argument to be made that we need many of his proposals but I am also realistic and realize it will never happen at least in the current political climate. However, that doesn't mean as a candidate you shouldn't try to move the needle towards making major change and if elected use your influence to accomplish as much as you can. Do you really think Obama wanted the version of the ACA that passed? Of course not, he wanted much more but you have to start somewhere.

[dukebluesincebirth]

You have a source to cite on that? My take on Sanders proposals is this - while many of them may be unrealistic, isn't it better to dream big and then compromise to hopefully something meaningful that will pass? In other words if you begin your argument more conservatively where do you bargain from there? I think there is an argument to be made that we need many of his proposals but I am also realistic and realize it will never happen at least in the current political climate. However, that doesn't mean as a candidate you shouldn't try to move the needle towards making major change and if elected use your influence to accomplish as much as you can. Do you really think Obama wanted the version of the ACA that passed? Of course not, he wanted much more but you have to start somewhere.

I agree, and the most important part of Bernie having success with his ideas in the White House would be a Senate flip to majority Dem. Some say he's not friendly with Dems, and this may be true, but there's going to be some strong Trump backlash if/when he leaves office. I could see Bernie riding that angry wave, just as I feel Trump has done with the Obama backlash. How likely are the Dems to flip the Senate?? I have absolutely no idea.

[budwom]

You have a source to cite on that? My take on Sanders proposals is this - while many of them may be unrealistic, isn't it better to dream big and then compromise to hopefully something meaningful that will pass? In other words if you begin your argument more conservatively where do you bargain from there? I think there is an argument to be made that we need many of his proposals but I am also realistic and realize it will never happen at least in the current political climate. However, that doesn't mean as a candidate you shouldn't try to move the needle towards making major change and if elected use your influence to accomplish as much as you can. Do you really think Obama wanted the version of the ACA that passed? Of course not, he wanted much more but you have to start somewhere.

Ha, I was just going to post something like this...there are MANY compromise positions that can be taken in the areas of student loan affordability, tax equity, climate change and of course health care.

A lot of people are still waiting for the administration's cheaper and better health care plan...there's a whole lot of room between Sanders' stated goals and what's happening today.

[mkirsh]

You have a source to cite on that? My take on Sanders proposals is this - while many of them may be unrealistic, isn't it better to dream big and then compromise to hopefully something meaningful that will pass? In other words if you begin your argument more conservatively where do you bargain from there? I think there is an argument to be made that we need many of his proposals but I am also realistic and realize it will never happen at least in the current political climate. However, that doesn't mean as a candidate you shouldn't try to move the needle towards making major change and if elected use your influence to accomplish as much as you can. Do you really think Obama wanted the version of the ACA that passed? Of course not, he wanted much more but you have to start somewhere.

I agree that anchoring high is a good tactic when you are willing to negotiate, but I assume Sanders's positions are viewed as "unrealistic" because of 1) his self-proclaimed dislike for compromise, and 2) the entrenched nature of current politics where any concession to the other side is viewed as a loss, despite any win your side can secure. It's therefore hard to see either side budging on these issues under a Sanders presidency, unless there is a massive blue wave flipping the Senate back to the Ds.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Agreed. Klobuchar is nicely positioned as the "other" moderate candidate. Her platform is middle of the road, she has lots of experience in DC, she can break some barriers of her own if she wins, and she's in inoffensive midwesterner who might make a difference in Ohio, Michigan, and other swing states.

I actually think Klobuchar has one of the best paths forward of any of the candidates. She should be out there talking about how she is the logical choice for folks who are fleeing Biden and should spend every day surrounded by as many AfAm leaders as she can find.

-Jason "want to be bold, Amy... announce Cory Booker as your running mate right now. That would be a really strong ticket, I think" Evans

I agree on Klobuchar. Before Iowa, I was putting her on the back burner, pretty much dismissing her chances. Now that Biden is slipping, and Mayor Pete is about to face reality when he heads South, I'm leaning towards her becoming the moderate front runner (and thus...the front runner). She would be tough opponent for Trump. And going in to the general, she could stick her "I've never lost an election" routine.

[luburch]

I agree on Klobuchar. Before Iowa, I was putting her on the back burner, pretty much dismissing her chances. Now that Biden is slipping, and Mayor Pete is about to face reality when he heads South, I'm leaning towards her becoming the moderate front runner (and thus...the front runner). She would be tough opponent for Trump. And going in to the general, she could stick her "I've never lost an election" routine.

Klobuchar has similar, if not worse, polling numbers among black voters.

In a Washington Post poll of black voters earlier this month, Klobuchar was at 0% to Buttigieg’s 2%. And while she has racked up endorsements from scores of current and former elected officials — among the most of any candidate in the race — just 18 are from people of color, most of them from her home state of Minnesota.

[Acymetric]

I know she is barely on the fringes of the election but if I were Klobuchar's staff, I would be spending a lot of time figuring out how to make her appealing to African-Americans and other minorities (noting that these groups do not vote as a homogeneous block, as much as many would like us to think they do). Buttigieg clearly has his challenges in this area, as does Bloomberg. If she can wait out Biden and capture this constituency from him if he eventually runs out of money or steps aside for another reason, it could really launch her campaign. Minnesota actually has a fairly large minority population, though she would have to tread very carefully around Ellison and Omar (who likely wouldn't support her anyway) as they are potential lightning rods.

We might have different definitions of "fairly large" here, 6.8% of the population being Black/African American is right around the national median but would qualify for most observers as "pretty white".

Klobuchar has similar, if not worse, polling numbers among black voters.

In a Washington Post poll of black voters earlier this month, Klobuchar was at 0% to Buttigieg’s 2%. And while she has racked up endorsements from scores of current and former elected officials — among the most of any candidate in the race — just 18 are from people of color, most of them from her home state of Minnesota.

Yeah, I just don't think there is much good reason to expect African American voters to coalesce around a candidate from a rural midwest state with a fairly small AA population.

[JasonEvans]

A poster has attacked my moderation of this thread as biased, uneven, and improper. In the interest of transparency, I am recusing myself from moderating or posting in this thread for the moment.

Technically, that means the thread is unmoderated... but, obviously, a different moderator could choose to come here and deal with you if you cross the line. Additionally, if it is decided that I continue to moderate, I could come back and pop you for an infraction for something you post during my hiatus which could be long or short, depending on what other mods think). I suspect the best course of action for everyone is for all of you to be exceedingly careful about your posts until the mod team gets this worked out. If things spiral at all, we will temporarily or perhaps permanently shut the thread down... but I hope it does not come to that.

-Jason

[CameronBornAndBred]

Klobuchar has similar, if not worse, polling numbers among black voters.

In a Washington Post poll of black voters earlier this month, Klobuchar was at 0% to Buttigieg’s 2%. And while she has racked up endorsements from scores of current and former elected officials — among the most of any candidate in the race — just 18 are from people of color, most of them from her home state of Minnesota.

At some point, I feel there is going to be compromise. It is possible that a moderate gets the nomination and the black vote simply doesn't show up, but I don't think so. I think regardless of who the nominee is, whether currently they have support from whatever demographic, in the end, being a Democrat is going to bring people out in the general. And of course it is well possible that the nominee is on the far side, such as Warren or Sanders, I just don't think that is going to shake out. As the race moves forward, "Being able to beat Trump" is going to be the foremost trait that people focus on, no matter what color you are. I can see Klobuchar being the one that carries that mantle.

[OldPhiKap]

I am not sure why Nevada is not being talked about as a test of Biden's ability to attract the votes of non-white citizens.

I do not have the demographics for Democrats only, but the state has (per Wikipedia):

51.3% White Non-Hispanic
16.8% Hispanic
8.6% African American
7.8% Asian
15.5% -- other categories

While not a pure test of the candidate's strength amongst African-Americans, this is a pretty diverse state. Certainly compared to Iowa and New Hampshire.

(Category names from the site -- if not politically correct terms feel free to edit the Wiki entry. For South Carolina, it states "White 68.5%" and "Black 27.3%" with just 4.2% other, so Nevada seems to have much greater diversity than SC does)

[sagegrouse]

You have a source to cite on that? My take on Sanders proposals is this - while many of them may be unrealistic, isn't it better to dream big and then compromise to hopefully something meaningful that will pass? In other words if you begin your argument more conservatively where do you bargain from there? I think there is an argument to be made that we need many of his proposals but I am also realistic and realize it will never happen at least in the current political climate. However, that doesn't mean as a candidate you shouldn't try to move the needle towards making major change and if elected use your influence to accomplish as much as you can. Do you really think Obama wanted the version of the ACA that passed? Of course not, he wanted much more but you have to start somewhere.

Ain't pickin' a fight with you, DukieCB! And didn't tend to be dismissive to Sanders, but took a shortcut. I just don't think that Medicare-for-all is a reasonable proposal when the American system has evolved with employer-provided health insurance covering 150 million people. No, I do not think that Americans believe that big corporations are the enemy. The business of America is "business," per Harding or Coolidge. The pharmaceutical companies are not the enemy either, although they do need reining in and regulation. Government-paid higher education does not have majority support among Dems, much less the citizenry as a whole (although less ambitious plans could garner support). I could go on (and on and on)...

[DUKIECB]

Ain't pickin' a fight with you, DukieCB! And didn't tend to be dismissive to Sanders, but took a shortcut. I just don't think that Medicare-for-all is a reasonable proposal when the American system has evolved with employer-provided health insurance covering 150 million people. No, I do not think that Americans believe that big corporations are the enemy. The business of America is "business," per Harding or Coolidge. The pharmaceutical companies are not the enemy either, although they do need reining in and regulation. Government-paid higher education does not have majority support among Dems, much less the citizenry as a whole (although less ambitious plans could garner support). I could go on (and on and on)...

Ha it's all good Sage and after I posted I realized my comment about citation came off more snooty than as a simple jest which I intended it to be. I just wanted to make the point about asking for everything so you have room to bargain which I think I got across. Apologies for a poor attempt at a joke.

[sagegrouse]

Ha it's all good Sage and after I posted I realized my comment about citation came off more snooty than as a simple jest which I intended it to be. I just wanted to make the point about asking for everything so you have room to bargain which I think I got across. Apologies for a poor attempt at a joke.

I am sure the other candidates are envious of Bernie's stump speech -- it's really hard to do. You don't have to take extreme positions to have a great, resonant 4-5 minute speech, but no other candidate in the race has mastered it.

In my original post I made a horse-race prediction that, if Bernie were to win both NH and SC, the Democratic party leaders, individually and collectively, would go nuts -- and who knows what will happen?

[bundabergdevil]

Updated 538 polling analysis of the latest Quinnipac national poll. Excerpts below --- more bad news for Biden.


But today Quinnipiac University released a national survey conducted entirely after Iowa voted, and it found a new polling front-runner: Sen. Bernie Sanders, who led the field with 25 percent support.

Former Vice President Joe Biden, meanwhile, fell nine points since Quinnipiac last conducted a national survey in late January. This is the first time Sanders has led in a national Quinnipiac survey during the 2020 cycle. As you can see in our national polling average, the gap between Biden and Sanders is shrinking, too — they’re essentially tied at 22 percent.

[Jeffrey]

In my original post I made a horse-race prediction that, if Bernie were to win both NH and SC, the Democratic party leaders, individually and collectively, would go nuts -- and who knows what will happen?

I agree with your prediction - - and prudence to expect the unexpected. In 2014, I thought 2016 would be Clinton/Bush. In 2014, I never thought 2020 could be Trump/Sanders.

[OldPhiKap]

AfAm voters, per Quinnipiac polls:

Late January:

Biden - 49%
Sanders - 17%
Bloomberg - 7%

new poll today:

Biden - 27%
Bloomberg - 22%
Sanders - 19%



Uh oh, Joe. The firewall may have less asbestos than you're thinking.

[OldPhiKap]

Also new Quinnipiac - 2020 head to head matchups vs Trump:

Bloomberg 51-42
Sanders 51-43
Biden 50-43
Klobuchar 49-43
Warren 48-44
Buttigieg 47-43

Sort of margin-of-error-ry, but undermines the argument that Sanders is unelectable or that Biden has the best chance to win.

(Yes, popular vote does not equate to electoral votes — but still)

[Acymetric]

Also new Quinnipiac - 2020 head to head matchups vs Trump:

Bloomberg 51-42
Sanders 51-43
Biden 50-43
Klobuchar 49-43
Warren 48-44
Buttigieg 47-43

Sort of margin-or-error-ry, but undermines the argument that Sanders is unelectable or that Biden has the best chance to win.

(Yes, popular vote does not equate to electoral votes — but still)

To be fair to Sanders, that argument had already been undermined with the same type of head to head polling 4 years ago.

[OldPhiKap]

To be fair to Sanders, that argument had already been undermined with the same type of head to head polling 4 years ago.

True. But since Iowa, it has been ramped up by the moderate candidates directly in debates and on the stump. Biden, Klobuchar and Buttigieg have all made this a centerpiece of attack. So far, it seems to be an ineffectual attack.