2020 Presidential Election

[CrazyNotCrazie]

"Hi, I'm bajillionaire Mike Bloomberg, and I need a slogan. Top dollar to whoever comes up with the best one!"

Attachment 10102

"Sold!!!"

(The Life cereal commercial tagline would have been better.)

"Mike will git er done" would have done a much better of speaking to the portion of the population with whom he has very little in common.

[Nick]

Warren is going after Bernie for being a sexist:

The two agreed that if they ultimately faced each other as presidential candidates, they should remain civil and avoid attacking one another, so as not to hurt the progressive movement. They also discussed how to best take on President Donald Trump, and Warren laid out two main reasons she believed she would be a strong candidate: She could make a robust argument about the economy and earn broad support from female voters.

Sanders responded that he did not believe a woman could win.

The description of that meeting is based on the accounts of four people: two people Warren spoke with directly soon after the encounter, and two people familiar with the meeting.

That evening, Sanders expressed frustration at what he saw as a growing focus among Democrats on identity politics, according to one of the people familiar with the conversation. Warren told Sanders she disagreed with his assessment that a woman could not win, three of the four sources said.
Sanders denied the characterization of the meeting in a statement to CNN.

[CameronBornAndBred]

The two agreed that if they ultimately faced each other as presidential candidates, they should remain civil and avoid attacking one another

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!
Politics is politics. Everyone is civil until someone is in your way.

[bundabergdevil]

Warren is going after Bernie for being a sexist:

Can't speak to most of that but I would agree with Sanders with regard to fearing Democratic focus on identify politics. This is well-trod territory now but that's one angle on why HRC lost in 2016, she over-invested in stitching together a coalition of various identity-oriented political groups and under-invested in getting to parts of the world that she perceived as being unfriendly, namely white working class voters. Her "average bubba" husband notably disagreed with this strategy and told her not to ignore the white working class.

Democrats seem to have to walk a finer line than Republicans today because they are, according to their voters' demographics, the bigger tent party. They have all sorts of voter constituencies whereas Republicans have a strong majority of a certain demographic of voter. That's a tough messaging strategy because there are of course many important policy debates specific to various groups that warrant attention but you can't let those issues dominate your message to the detriment of core economic/healthcare messages that tend to have cross-identity important/appeal.

[dudog84]

Meanwhile, things that matter...

Biden with astonishingly good news today on the polling front. Monmouth (A+) has him up 3 to 6 points in IA, RKM (A/B) has him up 5 in NH.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/

We are now 4 weeks from IA, and if things are truly breaking Joe's way this will be over on Super Tuesday.

Harris and Warren peaked too early. Sanders won't go above 20%. Buttigieg is still stuck under 10% nationally. Maybe Obama taught him how to run a primary race.

Edit: Also, if this keeps up, Bloomberg will quickly throw his weight behind Joe after Super Tuesday.

[lotusland]

Deval Patrick is theoretically still a candidate. But, yeah. Try telling me that starting in Iowa and NH does not have an impact. . . .

I know that challenging the current system is sort of a third rail (Bloomberg can do it because he doesn't plan to compete in either) but it really should rotate between a few different states. IA and NH are not very representative of the Democratic Party as a whole, let alone the national electorate.

But SC is up third and Biden is way ahead there. Corey Booker and especially Kamala Harris had everything they needed to succeed if they just could have inspired the voters. I think Biden’s position as the moderate choice was vulnerable but no one other than Mayor Pete managed to capitalize on it. Ditto for Castro. Even so, I agree about Iowa and NH. However Corey and Kamala failed to make a splash anywhere. I’m a moderate Dem who is skeptical about Joe’s ability to challenge Trump and I had high hopes for both. It just didn’t happen for them.

[dudog84]

OOPS! We're 3 weeks from IA. So even more what I said.

[dudog84]

But SC is up third and Biden is way ahead there. Corey Booker and especially Kamala Harris had everything they needed to succeed if they just could have inspired the voters. I think Biden’s position as the moderate choice was vulnerable but no one other than Mayor Pete managed to capitalize on it. Ditto for Castro. Even so, I agree about Iowa and NH. However Corey and Kamala failed to make a splash anywhere. I’m a moderate Dem who is skeptical about Joe’s ability to challenge Trump and I had high hopes for both. It just didn’t happen for them.

NV is 3rd, SC is 4th.

[bundabergdevil]

OOPS! We're 3 weeks from IA. So even more what I said.

Man, whoever decided to schedule ANYTHING in Iowa in February has a sick sense of humor.

[Devilwin]

New ABC/Ipsos poll:

56% of Americans disapprove of Trump's handling of the current situation in Iran, including 57% of independents.

52% say killing of Soleimani has made us less safe, only 25% say it has made us more safe.


I am not one that believes the attack was a “wag the dog” distraction effort, but to the extent it was it does not seem to have worked.

Guess none of those 56% were at the Championship game tonight...lol Standing ovation..

[Bluedog]

Guess none of those 56% were at the Championship game tonight...lol Standing ovation..

The game is taking place in Louisiana with teams from Louisiana and South Carolina...Trump territory. it is a bit funny to hear the stark contrast between the crowd reaction at the World Series (in DC) vs tonight in New Orleans. Of course, not everybody that disapproves of the President would boo. Some people still have respect for the office of the President regardless of party or even if they have an unfavorable view, or at least they used to...

[OldPhiKap]

More detail on the new Q poll — lots of interesting stuff in here:

https://poll.qu.edu/national/release...ReleaseID=3653

[bundabergdevil]

The game is taking place in Louisiana with teams from Louisiana and South Carolina...Trump territory. it is a bit funny to hear the stark contrast between the crowd reaction at the World Series (in DC) vs tonight in New Orleans. Of course, not everybody that disapproves of the President would boo. Some people still have respect for the office of the President regardless of party or even if they have an unfavorable view, or at least they used to...

This study/article is a few years old now but looks at the political orientation of sport fans. Republicans dominate college football, PGA Tour, and NASCAR. As you note, geography matters too. There have been other studies published noting that particularly “enthusiastic” sports fans are more likely to support far right policies. Take from that what you will.

https://www.businessinsider.com/politics-sports-you-like-2013-3

[CameronBornAndBred]

Speaking time during the debate. The ladies led the way, with Warren on top and Klobuchar right behind her. Biden, in the center spot on stage, spoke more than only Steyer.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/14/polit...ary/index.html

[Acymetric]

Speaking time during the debate. The ladies led the way, with Warren on top and Klobuchar right behind her. Biden, in the center spot on stage, spoke more than only Steyer.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/01/14/polit...ary/index.html

Sanders was behind Warren, Klobuchar was right behind him (they were effectively tied, 4 seconds difference).

[CameronBornAndBred]

Sanders was behind Warren, Klobuchar was right behind him (they were effectively tied, 4 seconds difference).

They kept updating that graphic in real time. Bernie must have gotten in one last word.

[Acymetric]

Warren is going after Bernie for being a sexist:

The two agreed that if they ultimately faced each other as presidential candidates, they should remain civil and avoid attacking one another, so as not to hurt the progressive movement. They also discussed how to best take on President Donald Trump, and Warren laid out two main reasons she believed she would be a strong candidate: She could make a robust argument about the economy and earn broad support from female voters.

Sanders responded that he did not believe a woman could win.

The description of that meeting is based on the accounts of four people: two people Warren spoke with directly soon after the encounter, and two people familiar with the meeting.

That evening, Sanders expressed frustration at what he saw as a growing focus among Democrats on identity politics, according to one of the people familiar with the conversation. Warren told Sanders she disagreed with his assessment that a woman could not win, three of the four sources said.
Sanders denied the characterization of the meeting in a statement to CNN.

Seems like a risky move for Warren (she's hoping to peel of Sanders supporters, but might be alienating them instead). I'm also not terribly convinced by the "confirmation", it basically looks like the sources for this comment from Sanders are Warren and some people Warren told the story to (so saying it is "based on the accounts of four people" seems misleading...it is based on the account of one person, Warren!).

It also feels a little weird to bring this up a full yearlater.

[OldPhiKap]

Seems like a risky move for Warren (she's hoping to peel of Sanders supporters, but might be alienating them instead). I'm also not terribly convinced by the "confirmation", it basically looks like the sources for this comment from Sanders are Warren and some people Warren told the story to (so saying it is "based on the accounts of four people" seems misleading...it is based on the account of one person, Warren!).

Warren sees it slipping away a bit and is taking off the gloves. IMO Warren is trying to stir up something that doesn't seem to have a lot of "there" there.

[ncexnyc]

I'd love to hear what was said between Warren and Sanders at the end of the debate when Warren refused to shake Bernie's hand. The optics of that encounter don't look good for Warren.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

It also feels a little weird to bring this up a full yearlater.

FWIW, I agree. It doesn't sound like anything Bernie would have said in the last forty years. And if he had, why on Earth would Warren wait two years to mention it? Definitely doesn't help her case.

Honestly, I believe that if Bernie had said it, he would own up to it. Like him or don't, he seems almost debilitatingly honest. I'd go so far as to say some folks might see him as too honest to be an effective president. The job takes a certain amount of guile and deception.