2020 Presidential Election

[JasonEvans]

What would be good odds on Trump dropping Pence? 20%-25% too high? 5%-10% too low?

I think 20% is waay too high. I'd maybe make it 3-5%. The problem is that dropping Pence does not solve any of Trump's problems with the economy, race relations, or the Coronavirus. And the other problem is that there is no obvious replacement who boosts Trump in a meaningful way other than maybe Haley and many say she is not likely to take it.

More importantly, I think it could depress the base because they would see it as a desperation move and a sign he has no chance in the election. It is clear that Trump's strategy at this point is to motivate his voters and hope he wins the turnout war (there is likely some voter suppression in that calculus too). How does dropping Pence help with that? It doesn't, which is why I think the odds of it happening are tiny at this point.

-Jason "I think we must filter everything about the President's actions through the lens of Trump's reelection strategy. Until we see a shift in that strategy, everything is about base motivation" Evans

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Excellent point about there being enough moments that people really looking for mental acuity issues could find possible examples--even when the issue isn't really there.

I think the "Biden mental capacity decline" story is wholly manufactured and not based on reality. BUT, I am also 100% confident that no matter how well he does during the debates, you will see edited clips circulating on social media sites that stitch together every stumble or stutter into some kind of "proof" that he's senile. And those will get some traction, not because it's true, but because it reinforces an understanding of one undeniable fact about Biden: he is old. So this could be the kind of smear that can move things on the margins if the race is close enough.

Based on the few ads that I have seen, most of Trump's ads have been focused on this topic. Biden would be wise to try to turn it to his advantage. Talk about how he had a significant stuttering challenge, worked hard, largely overcame it but still has to deal with it from time to time. How he is an advocate for others with disabilities. How he thinks we should generally support and encourage those with disabilities and not mock them (cue clip of Trump mocking the disabled reporter).

There are those who don't care that Trump mocks others. And there are unfortunately those who might think that the stutter makes Biden "unpresidential." But he has to reclaim the narrative.

[JasonEvans]

I wonder if the Trump campaign pushing on this now will backfire. By attacking Biden with this they might sufficiently lower the bar for him in the debates so anything other than stumbling in every sentence will seem like a victory.

Yup, this has been stated before and it really is an excellent point. It is entirely possible that Biden's bar to clear at the debates is merely some form of coherence. Given that we saw Biden hold his own at numerous Democratic debates in the past year, it seems pretty unlikely he will suddenly become a stumbling mess. Trump is not doing himself any favors with this argument at this time. The campaign would be wise to hold onto it for now and then unleash it with selected sound bytes after the first debate.

[OldPhiKap]

I think 20% is waay too high. I'd maybe make it 3-5%. The problem is that dropping Pence does not solve any of Trump's problems with the economy, race relations, or the Coronavirus. And the other problem is that there is no obvious replacement who boosts Trump in a meaningful way other than maybe Haley and many say she is not likely to take it.

More importantly, I think it could depress the base because they would see it as a desperation move and a sign he has no chance in the election. It is clear that Trump's strategy at this point is to motivate his voters and hope he wins the turnout war (there is likely some voter suppression in that calculus too). How does dropping Pence help with that? It doesn't, which is why I think the odds of it happening are tiny at this point.

-Jason "I think we must filter everything about the President's actions through the lens of Trump's reelection strategy. Until we see a shift in that strategy, everything is about base motivation" Evans

All good points. Some counter considerations:

Trump likes to go big and bold. And he needs to change the narrative. What better way to do that then to bring in a new, shiny object that will draw attention away from COVID?

If he could, I bet Trump would drop Pence for Tucker Carlson in a skinny minute. Maybe Ben Carson, who has been a loyal cabinet member. Trump likely thinks he can jettison Pence without much blowback; "who needs a follower when you're the Messiah?"

It doesn't have to make sense to me. It has to make sense to Trump (and Jared and Ivanka). Tucker Carlson has the highest-rated cable news network show in the country, and is a firebrand for the base -- his lack of experience is probably a plus for someone like Trump who came from the same boat. Ben Carson brings diversity to the ticket and he certainly would not overshadow Trump. If either were possibilities, I think Trump would at least give them serious consideration. Sarah Huckabee Sanders obviously did work pleasing to Trump on TV, which is how he thinks.

Anyway, just musing I guess. Trump has to do something bold and outside the box to get control of the narrative, and if there is one thing Trump is really good at it is dominating news cycles.

[sagegrouse]

Yup, this has been stated before and it really is an excellent point. It is entirely possible that Biden's bar to clear at the debates is merely some form of coherence. Given that we saw Biden hold his own at numerous Democratic debates in the past year, it seems pretty unlikely he will suddenly become a stumbling mess. Trump is not doing himself any favors with this argument at this time. The campaign would be wise to hold onto it for now and then unleash it with selected sound bytes after the first debate.

Biden competed in a field of 20 or so candidates. Most with excellent qualifications and many personally impressive. He won easily
Why do people think he will fold up against Trump?

[OldPhiKap]

Biden competed in a field of 20 or so candidates. Most with excellent qualifications and many personally impressive. He won easily
Why do people think he will fold up against Trump?

The harder question for me -- why do people think Trump will do well with time-limit responses, to questions from noncomplicit moderators? Short, coherent answers to difficult questions are not his forte, and he has rarely sat for an interview with a nonsupportive reporter who asked difficult follow-up questions. (And, as noted above, when he started coming back into the Press Briefing Room it went very poorly).

[CDu]

Yup, this has been stated before and it really is an excellent point. It is entirely possible that Biden's bar to clear at the debates is merely some form of coherence. Given that we saw Biden hold his own at numerous Democratic debates in the past year, it seems pretty unlikely he will suddenly become a stumbling mess. Trump is not doing himself any favors with this argument at this time. The campaign would be wise to hold onto it for now and then unleash it with selected sound bytes after the first debate.

This was, essentially, my point earlier in the thread. If you are going to watch the debates to see if Biden is coherent, he's going to achieve that. He's not going to look super polished, because he never has (the stuttering has always hindered that). He's going to be able to stand there and answer the questions. And, standing next to Trump, who also has trouble finishing sentences without running on to another though mid-sentence, he's going to look fine.

Now, there will certainly be soundbites that come out of those that folks who don't watch the debates can be fooled into thinking he's an incoherent mess. Any multiple-hour speaking engagement for a person who stutters will likely have such moments. But if you watched the DNC debates fully, I can't imagine that you came away thinking he was mentally limited. Unpolished? Absolutely. But mentally there. The same will be true

I suspect those soundbites are most effective for the segment of the population that DON'T watch the debates, rather than those who do. If you aren't paying attention, you might buy into that narrative based on the snippets. But I really don't you can watch a full debate and come away with the impression that he's mentally unfit unless you are already leaning heavily in that direction (and those folks were going to vote for Trump anyway).

[Acymetric]

Yup, this has been stated before and it really is an excellent point. It is entirely possible that Biden's bar to clear at the debates is merely some form of coherence. Given that we saw Biden hold his own at numerous Democratic debates in the past year, it seems pretty unlikely he will suddenly become a stumbling mess. Trump is not doing himself any favors with this argument at this time. The campaign would be wise to hold onto it for now and then unleash it with selected sound bytes after the first debate.

The harder question for me -- why do people think Trump will do well with time-limit responses, to questions from noncomplicit moderators? Short, coherent answers to difficult questions are not his forte, and he has rarely sat for an interview with a nonsupportive reporter who asked difficult follow-up questions. (And, as noted above, when he started coming back into the Press Briefing Room it went very poorly).

I find it interesting that everyone assumes there will be debates. My suspicion is that Trump will not want to participate.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I think it’s pretty unlikely that Trump would dump Pence. He’s been a loyal VP and Trump seems to really value loyalty.

Many on the right would like to see him drop Pence, he’s seen as not adding much to the ticket, and bring in Nikki Haley as his running mate to set her up for 2024.. She has a lot of support among conservatives.

But I don’t think she would take it. 2024 is definitely in her sights and my guess is she probably wants to run on her own when the time comes and not be seen as a Trump surrogate. She has a strong personality and notable independent streak...

[cspan37421]

The harder question for me -- why do people think Trump will do well with time-limit responses, to questions from noncomplicit moderators?

Probably because he's practiced at delivering zingers and sound bytes. One thing he does have in common with other politicians is that he won't answer the question as asked, he'll use the question as a springboard for getting in a talking point. And if he doesn't know, he'll just say something like "We'll see" or "I'll put my best people on it".

[cspan37421]

I find it interesting that everyone assumes there will be debates. My suspicion is that Trump will not want to participate.

I suspect neither really wants to participate, but each has to act like they want to.

As alluded to in my post above, I don't think debates are very revealing because too often the candidates respond to questions by choosing some segment of their standard stump speech.

[CDu]

I think it’s pretty unlikely that Trump would dump Pence. He’s been a loyal VP and Trump seems to really value loyalty.

Many on the right would like to see him drop Pence, he’s seen as not adding much to the ticket, and bring in Nikki Haley as his running mate to set her up for 2024.. She has a lot of support among conservatives.

But I don’t think she would take it. 2024 is definitely in her sights and my guess is she probably wants to run on her own when the time comes and not be seen as a Trump surrogate. She has a strong personality and notable independent streak...

I tend to agree on Pence, with the caveat that Trump can be unpredictable. I think he sticks with Pence, in part because the only clear reason to dump Pence would imply that his handling of COVID was poor. That is really the only high-profile thing Pence has on his resume.

And I definitely agree on Haley. She was initially against Trump before he offered her the UN spot. But unless Trump is in strong position in the polls, I doubt she wants to be further tethered to Trump after 2020. And if Trump is doing well in the polls then he has no reason to dump Pence.

[cspan37421]

I tend to agree on Pence, with the caveat that Trump can be unpredictable. I think he sticks with Pence, in part because the only clear reason to dump Pence would imply that his handling of COVID was poor. That is really the only high-profile thing Pence has on his resume.

That's just it though. He seeks a scapegoat, and if blaming Anthony Fauci doesn't work (as I suspect it won't), Pence is the next logical target, as Trump publicly put him in charge of the gov't response to COVID-19 (whether Pence could really DO anything meaningful in that role, is another matter; IDK). And as someone noted, it changes the top stories on the news, which is no small benefit to Trump now (or whenever he may do it).

[budwom]

That's just it though. He seeks a scapegoat, and if blaming Anthony Fauci doesn't work (as I suspect it won't), Pence is the next logical target, as Trump publicly put him in charge of the gov't response to COVID-19 (whether Pence could really DO anything meaningful in that role, is another matter; IDK). And as someone noted, it changes the top stories on the news, which is no small benefit to Trump now (or whenever he may do it).

But Trump is saying that everything is going very well, we're leading the world in Covid response...so as much as I know he'd like to foist blame off on someone else, there is, at this point, no blame to be assigned.
Does anyone really think he'll acknowledge that things aren't going well?

[swood1000]

... I think he sticks with Pence, in part because the only clear reason to dump Pence would imply that his handling of COVID was poor. ...

Another clear reason to dump Pence is that somebody else will bring with him or her a larger constituency, or will be thought to increase the percentage of women, blacks, etc. that vote Republican. Even the religious right would rather lose Pence on the ticket than have more Sonia Sotomayors nominated to the Supreme Court, especially if Pence is given a high-profile position in exchange.

[Matches]

But Trump is saying that everything is going very well, we're leading the world in Covid response...so as much as I know he'd like to foist blame off on someone else, there is, at this point, no blame to be assigned.
Does anyone really think he'll acknowledge that things aren't going well?

If the # of deaths ticks up significantly he'll have no choice. Can't dismiss them as "99% harmless" if that happens.

Doesn't really make much sense for Haley to jump in as VP though. She's well-positioned for a 2020 run regardless, but her standing would be hurt by attaching herself to Trump's ticket if he loses. Currently she has the best of both worlds.

[Steven43]

Dukakis had a massive lead over Pappy Bush, until he suddenly didn’t. Lots of time left.

Having said that, the cement seems pretty hard right now and those opposing Trump are pretty determined. He did thread the needle last time as you say, and it seems like he has made his second act more difficult by his hard- base strategy/personality.

Most people in the country barely even knew who Michael Dukakis was in 1988, even as he led Bush in the polls for a time. Joe Biden is one of the most well-known politicians of the past 40 years, including a two-time VP of the United States.

The name recognition of the politicians in question — Biden and Dukakis — as well as the political landscape and access to information for voters about politicians and political issues is about as different today as compared to 32 years ago as it could possibly be. I see just about zero meaningful comparisons between 2020 and 1988.

[budwom]

If the # of deaths ticks up significantly he'll have no choice. Can't dismiss them as "99% harmless" if that happens.

Doesn't really make much sense for Haley to jump in as VP though. She's well-positioned for a 2020 run regardless, but her standing would be hurt by attaching herself to Trump's ticket if he loses. Currently she has the best of both worlds.

Well, here it comes! ICUs loaded to the gills in several states.

Indeed, Haley would be nuts to get on this particular train...

[swood1000]

Excellent point about there being enough moments that people really looking for mental acuity issues could find possible examples--even when the issue isn't really there.

I think the "Biden mental capacity decline" story is wholly manufactured and not based on reality. BUT, I am also 100% confident that no matter how well he does during the debates, you will see edited clips circulating on social media sites that stitch together every stumble or stutter into some kind of "proof" that he's senile. And those will get some traction, not because it's true, but because it reinforces an understanding of one undeniable fact about Biden: he is old. So this could be the kind of smear that can move things on the margins if the race is close enough.

I think that a good argument is made that Trump should not place a lot of emphasis on the Biden mental capacity issue since that will raise expectations that evidence of this will be pronounced during the debates, and anything not rising to that level will seem insignificant. Furthermore, nobody's vote is going to turn on this issue unless Biden actually displays evidence of some confusion that is unambiguously unrelated to the stuttering issue, and most verbal irregularities can plausibly be attributed to that.

[swood1000]

It was in the Dukakis-Bush campaign that the infamous Willie Horton ad hit the TV screens.



What are the odds that video of rioters will be as successfully attributed to Biden?