2020 Presidential Election

[Steven43]

No, that is because the exit polls asked folks who they thought they had voted for and had no way of knowing how those votes had actually been cast.

Not sure why you felt the need to remind us of that horrible event (Florida 2000), but it definitely ruined my evening. I’m just wondering how you beat SouthernDukie to it.

[SouthernDukie]

Not sure why you felt the need to remind us of that horrible event (Florida 2000), but it definitely ruined my evening. I’m just wondering how you beat SouthernDukie to it.

I purposely block 2000 out of my mind whenever possible.

[Steven43]

Thanks to the hidden support from voters who are embarrassed to admit they will vote for Donald Trump, the president will be narrowly reelected on Nov. 3, says one of the few pollsters who correctly predicted his 2016 victory.

https://news.yahoo.com/shy-trump-voters-will-power-his-win-says-pollster-who-called-2016-race-203448623.html

538 gives them a C-

This is so much BS. If a Trump supporter is “shy” (by the way, have you ever met a shy Trump supporter?) about admitting their intention to vote for Trump all they would have to say is something along the lines of, “Well, I always vote for the republican candidate regardless of who it is. I would never vote for a democrat, so...”

[Steven43]

I purposely block 2000 out of my mind whenever possible.

Smart. Very smart. Are you taking the same pills that PackMan got ahold of today?

[PackMan97]

I purposely block 2000 out of my mind whenever possible.

I have a good friend named Chad... 2000 still gives him nightmares.

[LegoBatman]

I have a good friend named Chad... 2000 still gives him nightmares.

It probably doesn't help that you keep asking him "how's it hanging?"

[Steven43]

Y’all really need to stop this.

[bundabergdevil]

I purposely block 2000 out of my mind whenever possible.

That’s a good strategery, do you keep the memory in a “lockbox” ?

[PackMan97]

So has election fatigue finally set in... Or have we all gone mad?

[acdevil]

Can’t it be both?

[Udaman]

Just a hunch. And the fact that Trump has shown to be masterful and directing the narrative. 4 years ago, when Comey came out about looking into more Clinton emails, Trump (and the GOP, with help from Fox) turned this into THE story. It absolutely had an effect. Maybe dropped Hillary's numbers by 3% (from 7.5% lead to 4.5% lead). It also mattered to voters who made their decision in the last week.

There aren't as many late deciding voters, but this could affect them, and could also get more of the reluctant Trump voters to go ahead and actually vote.

I hope I'm wrong. I'm wrong a lot. I wasn't wrong in 2016 (so maybe I'm due).

Ok. I’m back off the ledge. Guess I’ll always feel burned by 2016 and Comey swooping I’m at the end with his foot on the scale.

It’s looking like the Hunter allegations are more like Tara Reid than Comey (not holding up very well).

Meanwhile we have the most reported new cases of Covid since it started. Cases are skyrocketing in numerous states. In the NE they are closing youth hockey rinks (THAT is huge).

And Trump both a) keeps saying we are turning the corner and b) keeps having multiple rallies a day which no social distancing and most people in masks. DURING A PANDEMIC. It’s mind boggling.

Won’t make a true prediction until the 3rd, but for me I think everything is trending in the right direction and it could (should?) be a wipeout.

[Devilwin]

More testing could be the reason for the upturn in cases. They are saying the death rate is dropping..And if crowds are an indicator Trump may pull this out yet. Never have trusted polls...

[JasonEvans]

Video of Trump walking out of his 60 Minutes interview with Leslie Stahl. He seems reasonably restrained and not too upset. They had chatted for 45 minutes so maybe he was genuine about thinking she had enough and not wanting it to go on forever.

[ClemmonsDevil]

Looking at voting trends in the old North State. Voting was depressed in 2012 and 2016 in North Carolina. This is going to be a huge turnout election. It looks like we will have more votes cast in early in-person voting plus mail-in voting before election day than were cast in either of those elections. What may turn out to be a math problem for conservatives is that there are 1 million more people in the state than in 2010. Those people are mainly clustered in counties that voted for Clinton at about a 62% clip. At some level this is going to reach a Tipping Point. This is probably true in Texas as well, at least eventually. Just maybe not this election. Nate Silver seems to think that the North Carolina, Texas Swing is inexorable. He also thinks that Michigan and Pennsylvania will eventually swing towards Republicans. In short, Nate thinks that this is a reordering rather than a one-off. Yesterday's 538 politics podcast said that the mistake people are making in Texas is thinking that the Beto versus Cruz election was a one-off. Nate thinks it is a trend. Plus Texas Swing is a great genre of country music.

[-jk]

More testing could be the reason for the upturn in cases. They are saying the death rate is dropping..And if crowds are an indicator Trump may pull this out yet. Never have trusted polls...

More testing doesn’t change hospitalization rates, which are surging. We are getting better at treatments, and vulnerable people are taking extra precautions.

-jk

[ClemmonsDevil]

More testing doesn’t change hospitalization rates, which are surging. We are getting better at treatments, and vulnerable people are taking extra precautions.

-jk

Yep. Perfect. Look at percent positive and hospitalizations when evaluating increases in overall numbers. If percent positive increases AND total cases increase then there is a problem. Hospitalizations will follow.

[budwom]

More testing doesn’t change hospitalization rates, which are surging. We are getting better at treatments, and vulnerable people are taking extra precautions.

-jk

that's right, the geezers (raises his hand) are hiding out (seriously) and hospitalizations are up significantly, with deaths expected to follow...

[CDu]

More testing doesn’t change hospitalization rates, which are surging. We are getting better at treatments, and vulnerable people are taking extra precautions.

-jk

Also, deaths aren’t decreasing. They were flat, now they are increasing. Deaths lag case increases by a few weeks. We are unquestionably seeing a surge in disease.

[Wander]

Early voting has become so mainstream and normalized compared to past election years. The numbers totally shatter past records, and thankfully the percentage of young people participating in early voting has skyrocketed.

The big question is going to be, is this reflective of actual higher turnout, or is this people who were going to vote anyway just changing their method of voting?

[budwom]

Ernst and Trump losing support among seniors in Iowa...