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  1. #361

    Counterpoint

    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Here is one writer's answer, as he qoutes AFL-CIO president Harold Schaitberger.



    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...ZoP?li=BBnb7Kz

    I think conversationally, we all tend to think about this as either (1) winning back voters from Trump OR (2) increasing turnout by Democratic voters. It's more of a spectrum. The stronger you go for voters in bucket (1), the less voters in bucket (2) you may pick up and vice versa. The midterm is a different election and it's not predictive exactly, but there's little evidence that the Democrats didn't strike that balance relatively properly in 2018, and that candidates who appeal to voters in bucket (2) aren't also capable of swinging a significant number of voters in bucket (1). I'd point to the significant erosion of Trump's support in 2018 among suburban (particularly) female voters as the best example of not having to pick and choose between buckets (1) and (2). Hence, I think the talk of a "moderate" vs. "left" candidate for the Democrats might be overblown. Democrats had significant gains in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which would swing the electoral college. They also had important gains in North Carolina and Arizona as well.

  2. #362
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I have no data for this other than my own impressions but I suspect Bernie had a better shot at taking down Trump than Hillary did. Well, I guess actually in retrospect, that isn't as absurd as it was in early 2016.

    Bernie's entire campaign was working for the vote of the working class. He would have been competing head-to-head with Trump for the votes of blue collar voters. The debates would have been fascinating. Bernie was speaking directly to the coal miners in West Virginia and factory workers in the Midwest - folks that Hillary was rather condescending towards and that Trump was pretty patronizing towards. Bernie message of empowerment of the working class might have swung several key states that had zero interest in Hillary's campaign.

    Having said that, I think Bernie is not the ideal candidate this go round. The democrats have to find someone with some youthful exuberance and charisma who can grab some attention on a debate stage when paired up against a guy who loves to suck all the air out of the room.

    I would totally put money down to watch a 2016 Trump/Sanders debate though. Would have been fascinating.

    the counter is that one of the problems with this narrative was that Sanders never really got into a bruising, dig-up-the-dirt fight with Clinton because she was trying not to alienate his supporters for the actual election and so a number of his vulnerabilities were not unmasked. There was the college investment scandal with his wife, his political activism when he was young that, rightly or wrongly, made him vulnerable to attacks of unpatriotic communism, as well as his issues with women. By that I do not mean that he had mistresses in the closet but the campaign treated the female volunteers pretty poorly. Then, of course, we don't know what campaign slogan the Trump campaign would have come up with and how that would have played. He has been pretty ingenuous (or diabolical) wit those slogans: Little Marco, Lyin' Ted, Low Energy Jeb, Crooked Hillary (with the anti-Semitic graphic of the Jewish star on the cash), and of course Pocahontas. But at the end of the day, Hillary barely lost the popular vote in a few swing states and took the nationwide popular vote by 3 million. Also, at this point, the issue is what the Dems do going forward and I do believe that both Bernie and Liz Warren are now past their expiration date. The Democratic primaries will be absolutely fascinating.

  3. #363
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    Quote Originally Posted by SueAxe View Post
    the counter is that one of the problems with this narrative was that Sanders never really got into a bruising, dig-up-the-dirt fight with Clinton because she was trying not to alienate his supporters for the actual election and so a number of his vulnerabilities were not unmasked. There was the college investment scandal with his wife, his political activism when he was young that, rightly or wrongly, made him vulnerable to attacks of unpatriotic communism, as well as his issues with women. By that I do not mean that he had mistresses in the closet but the campaign treated the female volunteers pretty poorly. Then, of course, we don't know what campaign slogan the Trump campaign would have come up with and how that would have played. He has been pretty ingenuous (or diabolical) wit those slogans: Little Marco, Lyin' Ted, Low Energy Jeb, Crooked Hillary (with the anti-Semitic graphic of the Jewish star on the cash), and of course Pocahontas. But at the end of the day, Hillary barely lost the popular vote in a few swing states and took the nationwide popular vote by 3 million. Also, at this point, the issue is what the Dems do going forward and I do believe that both Bernie and Liz Warren are now past their expiration date. The Democratic primaries will be absolutely fascinating.
    Well said, Sue! There was also the period of time when Bernie drew unemployment compensation...
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  4. #364
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    I always looked at the Bernie vote, for the most part, as disaffection with the status quo (of which Clinton was the poster child) as opposed to a vote "for" Bernie. He was to some degree a place-holder for the disaffected end of the party, as opposed to a strong candidate in a more crowded field. (Think Dennis Kucinich, except the only one who took on the establishment "predestined" candidate).

    I do know some passionate Bernie supporters who liked him based on his policies. But most I know supported him because he wasn't Hillary Clinton -- full stop.
    Last edited by OldPhiKap; 02-11-2019 at 02:56 PM.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  5. #365
    I think that is true about Bernie's supporters, which makes this race really interesting as they will have a lot of options. I will say that I have learned that there is a certain irrational aspect to voting for president. One can never underestimate the cult of the personality. It makes people ignore flaws and justify support for candidates who take positions adverse to their own. And I mean that for all political parties.

  6. #366
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    The question I would ask is did she lose any voters over that scandal? I doubt it would have been enough.

    More likely she lost more voters due to the Democrat party's super lame attempts at king making with the Super Delegates and other shenanigans. Those changed Bernie supporters into what *might* have been Hillary supporters to a third party or sitting it out all together. There were some seriously upset folks over what the DNC did to undermine Bernie. I think that made far more of a difference than did Hillary's email scandal. I
    I saw the whole issue as sour grapes, personally. Not saying there weren't some legitimate gripes; just that they were overblown IMO. I tend to agree with the poster who noted a significant portion of Bernie's supporters just wanted someone other than Hillary to be the nominee. Kind of like her emails, the king making was just the best reason they found to justify their opinion.

    I do think Hillary had home field advantage with the DNC because she was a long time Democrat and Bernie was a staunch independent who happened to be liberal. It's not surprising who the party establishment would support. In addition, Bernie had real problems connecting with southern people of color. While he ran close to (and beat) Hillary in a lot of the blue states, she trounced him in the purple and red states and earned more delegates before the super delegates even voted. Bernie fought well past the time when it was over (just as Hillary did 8 years prior). The only way Bernie could get the nomination would be if the super delegates had overturned the will of the people and made him the candidate. That truly would have been "king making" IMO.

    In the next election, whoever the Democrats nominate will be portrayed by the Republicans as extreme left wing and out of touch with blue collar America. That's just politics. Politics is all about perception, which is a bit why a former senator, first lady, and secretary of state lost to a real estate mogul with no political experience.
    "There can BE only one."

  7. #367
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I would make a more succinct list. I think Hillary lost the campaign with her tone-deaf "basket of deplorable" comment. It solidified what many people already thought about her. In the interest of bipartisan fairness, I think Romney similarly lost with his similar foot-in-mouth moment of "binders full of women."

    The truly amazing thing is that Trump has seemingly had dozens of these moments - misstatements or simple poor judgment about your audience - and he is relatively untouched. The rules for him are very different. Must be maddening when trying to prepare for a campaign against him.
    I think this is overanalysis. Every presidential candidate has made at least one minor gaffe on par with the "deplorables" comment. Like you note, Trump says something worse at least once a day (for how many politicians would making jokes about the Trail of Tears be a gigantic scandal for? It barely even registered with anyone yesterday), but Obama, Romney, etc all had a similar minor mistake. IMO Clinton lost because she is a poor marketer and Trump is a great one. He controlled the airwaves and the language of the race with words like "crooked" etc.

    I'll say this. Since Trump got into politics, there has only been one person who has completely owned him in a political fight. But she's not running for president. So it's unclear how well the D nominee will fare (unless it's Warren, in which case it's already clear that she would be terrible at battling Trump politically).

  8. #368
    Join Date
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by SueAxe View Post
    Also, at this point, the issue is what the Dems do going forward and I do believe that both Bernie and Liz Warren are now past their expiration date. The Democratic primaries will be absolutely fascinating.
    Lots of fresh faces playing against the old guard. Warren hasn't run before, but she gets tossed in that catergory now.
    I am very excited that the field feels so "fresh". It's easy to forget that Obama was a young senator at the time of his nomination with so much time passed, but back then he powered over HRC when it looked like it was her job for the taking. I love elections that bring surprises. (Well, mostly love them.)
    I don't expect Bernie to be in the mix like he was before, but I expect his voice will be heard. Biden is the only guy out there that if he chooses to run, I'd quickly say he's gonna be accepting at the convention. But that is only if he runs. And IF he does, I'm excited to see what the new folks do. Because just like in 2008 with Hillary, Biden may lose out to some fresh faced newbie. And if so, it will be exciting to see.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  9. #369
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    Feb 2016
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    Atlanta
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I have no data for this other than my own impressions but I suspect Bernie had a better shot at taking down Trump than Hillary did. Well, I guess actually in retrospect, that isn't as absurd as it was in early 2016.

    Bernie's entire campaign was working for the vote of the working class. He would have been competing head-to-head with Trump for the votes of blue collar voters. The debates would have been fascinating. Bernie was speaking directly to the coal miners in West Virginia and factory workers in the Midwest - folks that Hillary was rather condescending towards and that Trump was pretty patronizing towards. Bernie message of empowerment of the working class might have swung several key states that had zero interest in Hillary's campaign.

    Having said that, I think Bernie is not the ideal candidate this go round. The democrats have to find someone with some youthful exuberance and charisma who can grab some attention on a debate stage when paired up against a guy who loves to suck all the air out of the room.

    I would totally put money down to watch a 2016 Trump/Sanders debate though. Would have been fascinating.
    Agree. I definitely think the Democrats need to nominate someone under 70 years old.

  10. #370
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    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Well said, Sue! There was also the period of time when Bernie drew unemployment compensation...
    I'm not sure I know a single person who has lived in Vermont for 40+ years and hasn't drawn unemployment compensation for some period of time, myself included. Not an overabundance of jobs here way back when. Is this some kind of shameful act?
    (FWIW, I used to work at the same tiny newspaper that Bernie once worked for, he got by ((there and at other places)) making very little money for a long period of time...hardly one of our resident Trustafarians).

  11. #371
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I'm not sure I know a single person who has lived in Vermont for 40+ years and hasn't drawn unemployment compensation for some period of time, myself included. Not an overabundance of jobs here way back when. Is this some kind of shameful act?
    (FWIW, I used to work at the same tiny newspaper that Bernie once worked for, he got by ((there and at other places)) making very little money for a long period of time...hardly one of our resident Trustafarians).
    Did he work for the Freep?

  12. #372
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    Did he work for the Freep?
    ah, you know the Freep? (sad story, that thing is just about toast, more of a pamphlet than a paper now).
    Nope we worked for Franklin County Newspapers (sounds grand, they were ultra tiny): the Enosbug Standard, Richford Gazette, St. Albans Leader and Swanton Courier..of course all four papers were identical, just had
    different headings on the front page, total circulation in the single thousands IIRC...no one did it for money...after he left we found a bunch of his old notes, plus his resignation letter.
    The owner was an old old friend of mine, WWII Navy vet, old lefty, had wads of old lefty newspapers up in the attic of the barn which housed the paper...

    Nice thing about working for a paper (and living in the house next door) was that every year we had the Enosburg Dairy Festival, gigantic affair in a farming state (diminishingly so right now), every politician routinely
    came to town, and felt obligated to come sit on the porch of the owner's house to chat...so I got to sit in on a bunch of conversations with Senators like Leahy, Stafford, governors galore, anyone running for office who wanted some ink.

  13. #373
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I'm not sure I know a single person who has lived in Vermont for 40+ years and hasn't drawn unemployment compensation for some period of time, myself included. Not an overabundance of jobs here way back when. Is this some kind of shameful act?
    (FWIW, I used to work at the same tiny newspaper that Bernie once worked for, he got by ((there and at other places)) making very little money for a long period of time...hardly one of our resident Trustafarians).
    How many of them were running for US Senate at the time they were collecting unemployment? Granted it was for a minor third party...and it was 1972...so a long time ago.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/...n_7471056.html

    I don't think there is anything wrong with drawing unemployment.

  14. #374
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    Greenville, SC
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    How many of them were running for US Senate at the time they were collecting unemployment? Granted it was for a minor third party...and it was 1972...so a long time ago.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/...n_7471056.html

    I don't think there is anything wrong with drawing unemployment.
    Proof he was job hunting.

  15. #375
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    I'm not sure I know a single person who has lived in Vermont for 40+ years and hasn't drawn unemployment compensation for some period of time, myself included. Not an overabundance of jobs here way back when. Is this some kind of shameful act?
    (FWIW, I used to work at the same tiny newspaper that Bernie once worked for, he got by ((there and at other places)) making very little money for a long period of time...hardly one of our resident Trustafarians).
    I assume your question is rhetorical, but either way the answer is most unequivocally "No, of course not". Any more than collecting insurance after a car accident to repair your car, or letting your insurance company pay medical bills after a hospital visit.

  16. #376
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    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    I assume your question is rhetorical, but either way the answer is most unequivocally "No, of course not". Any more than collecting insurance after a car accident to repair your car, or letting your insurance company pay medical bills after a hospital visit.
    of course I agree with you, but I was asking the question in response to Sage who mentioned it for some reason.

    In 1974 I drew unemployment after quitting a job when my boss asked me to steal the mail of our chief competitor out of their mailbox. Somehow I preferred the dole (I say that affectionately) to going to jail for mail theft.

  17. #377
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    of course I agree with you, but I was asking the question in response to Sage who mentioned it for some reason.

    In 1974 I drew unemployment after quitting a job when my boss asked me to steal the mail of our chief competitor out of their mailbox. Somehow I preferred the dole (I say that affectionately) to going to jail for mail theft.
    WOW! Cutthroat world of small town journalism!
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  18. #378
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    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    WOW! Cutthroat world of small town journalism!
    Ah no, it wasn't that employer, it was a previous one, a Customs House Broker, worked at the Canada border, cutthroat world though few know it exists...all trucks or cars at the border carrying goods need to be cleared by customs and the appropriate duties (if any) paid. Lots of paperwork, thousands of clients, and no set fee structure, so there was always client pilfering going on...when our competitors cleared a truck at the border, the customs officer would place a copy of the appropriate
    paperwork in their official mail box (which would have details such as the shipper, the goods, destination, etc)...boss demanded I steal this stuff.

  19. #379
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    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    Ah no, it wasn't that employer, it was a previous one, a Customs House Broker, worked at the Canada border, cutthroat world though few know it exists...all trucks or cars at the border carrying goods need to be cleared by customs and the appropriate duties (if any) paid. Lots of paperwork, thousands of clients, and no set fee structure, so there was always client pilfering going on...when our competitors cleared a truck at the border, the customs officer would place a copy of the appropriate
    paperwork in their official mail box (which would have details such as the shipper, the goods, destination, etc)...boss demanded I steal this stuff.
    I sure am glad I got out of transportation...dealing with customs was brutal (although I found Mexico to be more problematic than Canada, and don't get me started on South America, Russia, and several countries in Africa...ok maybe customs was just a pain everywhere).

  20. #380
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    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    I sure am glad I got out of transportation...dealing with customs was brutal (although I found Mexico to be more problematic than Canada, and don't get me started on South America, Russia, and several countries in Africa...ok maybe customs was just a pain everywhere).
    incredibly complicated. I hated that job. Bizarre in many ways...my first day on the job (for reasons that are quite complicated) my boss sent me to the company president, accusing me of being a corporate spy. I was able to debunk this
    rather easily (my boss had made a badly flawed observation). Marvelous irony was that in fact there WAS a corporate spy in the office who made off with critical pricing information just a few weeks later. I got a kick out of that.

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