Yield curve inversion = recession within 18 months. At least that’s what they say on Planet Money / The Indicator.
This economy has been boosted by a huge tax cut and a boost in spending. But those dogs are pretty gassed at this point.
A recession is coming, but my guess is it doesn’t get real until after the election. Voters need about 6 months before a recession becomes a factor in their voting, anyway. JMHO.