Amy Walter spoke yesterday at our seminar program in Steamboat Springs. Walter is an American political analyst, currently serving as national editor of The Cook Political Report. Before this, she served as the political director of ABC News, based in Washington, DC. She frequently appears on NPR.
A few interesting observations: While, following the mid-term gains, the strategy for the Dems seems obvious -- flip Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, which surprisingly went for Trump in 2016. But that may short-sighted as a strategy. while mid-term voting was high everywhere, in the 2018 mid-terms, where Dems made gains, the non-voters in those three states were more heavily Trump voters than any other part of the electorate. Therefore, the mid-term results may be misleading as a forecast of 2020.
Moreover, while the country is becoming more diverse ethnically and younger -- and there are signs this younger voters are beginning to show up on election day -- Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are actually becoming less diverse (whiter), older and less educated, as retirees and workers move elsewhere.
So, the strategy of "hold what Hilary won and add these three" may be deficient. The Democrats would need to also look elsewhere for gains. North Carolina and Florida came up, as well as Arizona and Texas -- all states where Dems have recently shown strength.
Here's another way to look at it: elections are decided by the ten or eleven closest states. In 2016, here's how the "tightest" eleven states racked up:
Code:
ST MAR P EV
AZ 4.1 R 11
FL 1.3 R 29
MI 0.3 R 16
NC 3.8 R 15
PA 1.2 R 20
WI 1.0 R 10
Total R 101
CO (2.8) D 9
ME (2.7) D 4
MN (1.5) D 10
NH (0.4) D 4
NV (2.4) D 6
Total D 33
Hilary won about half of these states, but they were smaller (ave. electoral vote of 6.6 vs. ave. vote of 16.8). So, a broader strategy of also targeting FL, AZ and NC seems to make sense. And don't forget GA (Trump +5.7 percent) and Texas (Trump +9.2 percent, but divided over many Trump issues). (And the Dems will also need to defend ME, MN and NH.
Sage Grouse
---------------------------------------
'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013