2020 Presidential Election

[CameronBlue]

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[SouthernDukie]

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Darn it! Now you've got me curious. LOL

[niveklaen]

Her husband is Jewish so that would be quite an odd situation! 😀

I would assume that he was doing pro bono work for the ACLU if that were the case...

[JasonEvans]

We have our first polling on the Harris pick, courtesy ABC/Ipsos: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...to-vp-bid-poll

Forty-seven percent of voters also rate Biden’s pick of the California senator as his running mate as excellent or good, including 83 percent of Democratic voters and 68 percent of Black voters. Twenty-nine percent overall rated Biden’s pick as poor or not so good.

and...

Thirty-seven percent of registered voters say they view her favorably, while 32 percent said they have an unfavorable view of her. By comparison, Vice President Mike Pence is viewed favorably by 33 percent of voters and unfavorably by 47 percent of voters.

Harris’s favorability rating makes her the only person who will appear on a 2020 White House ballot for a major party who is viewed net-positively among registered voters.

-Jason "I would expect her favorability ratings to change as the other side attacks more... it is inevitable" Evans

[OldPhiKap]

We have our first polling on the Harris pick, courtesy ABC/Ipsos: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...to-vp-bid-poll

and...

-Jason "I would expect her favorability ratings to change as the other side attacks more... it is inevitable" Evans

Trump has to be thinking of jettisoning Pence for a woman if he can. Between positive news cycles for people other than Trump in the next week, and the desire to make a big splash, it has to at least cross his mind.

He is impulsive, and wants the news to all be about him and his campaign. He is concerned about Harris and has not rolled out a very strong attack despite the knowledge that Harris had to be on the short list for some time. Jared and Ivanka reportedly brought this idea up to Trump six months ago, and Trump has apparently mused on it before. He has to change the dynamics and bring a positive jolt to things -- quickly.

If I could find betting odds on Kristi Noem being his running mate, I would take that bet with the right odds.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Trump has to be thinking of jettisoning Pence for a woman if he can. Between positive news cycles for people other than Trump in the next week, and the desire to make a big splash, it has to at least cross his mind.

He is impulsive, and wants the news to all be about him and his campaign. Jared and Ivanka reportedly brought this idea up to Trump six months ago, and Trump has apparently mused on it before. He has to change the dynamics and bring a positive jolt to things -- quickly.

If I could find betting odds on Kristi Noem being his running mate, I would take that bet with the right odds.

This would also allow him to assign all blame for COVID to Pence, since he was put in charge of it. Not that Trump would ever admit that anything was done wrong, but he could still say that it was Pence's fault. In a normal organization at a normal time, even if someone was delegated responsibility for a problem, the CEO still takes some blame, but Fifth Avenue, guns, blah, blah, blah.

Or he could say that he is giving Pence a "lateral" move and making his full time job being in charge of COVID, so someone else is VP. If I were Pence, I would be staying away from all types of buses because there is a decent chance he is going to be thrown under one.

[JasonEvans]

President Trump says he is holding up the Coronavirus Stimulus package because he wants to block funding for mail-in voting.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-he...-idUKKCN2591PU

Trump said his negotiators have resisted Democrats’ calls for additional money to help prepare for presidential, congressional and local voting during a pandemic that has killed more than 165,000 Americans and presented severe logistical challenges to organizing large events like the Nov. 3 election.

“The items are the post office and the $3.5 billion for mail-in voting,” Trump told Fox Business Network, saying Democrats want to give the post office $25 billion. “If we don’t make the deal, that means they can’t have the money, that means they can’t have universal mail-in voting. It just can’t happen.”

It will be interesting to see if Democrats try to really make something out of this. I could see it maybe becoming a bit of a campaign issue if Democrats are able to highlight it better. Trump would be wise not to speak as openly about this, IMO.

[Bluedog]

We have our first polling on the Harris pick, courtesy ABC/Ipsos: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaig...to-vp-bid-poll

"including 83 percent of Democratic voters and 68 percent of Black voters"

and...



-Jason "I would expect her favorability ratings to change as the other side attacks more... it is inevitable" Evans

Kinda surprising that her approval rating among Black voters is so much lower than Democratic voters given Black voters are overwhelming Democrats. I guess that's her prosecutor background hurting her among some cohorts perhaps. On the other hand, perhaps it's not surprising as she's wasn't the preferred candidate in the primary among Black voters - Biden was.

[duke79]

Trump has to be thinking of jettisoning Pence for a woman if he can. Between positive news cycles for people other than Trump in the next week, and the desire to make a big splash, it has to at least cross his mind.

He is impulsive, and wants the news to all be about him and his campaign. He is concerned about Harris and has not rolled out a very strong attack despite the knowledge that Harris had to be on the short list for some time. Jared and Ivanka reportedly brought this idea up to Trump six months ago, and Trump has apparently mused on it before. He has to change the dynamics and bring a positive jolt to things -- quickly.

If I could find betting odds on Kristi Noem being his running mate, I would take that bet with the right odds.

LOL, you never know what DT MIGHT be thinking and it would not surprise me completely IF he tried a "hail Mary" type of play - dumping MP for someone else and possibly a woman. BUT I don't really think that choosing Kristi Noem (whom 99.5% of Americans have NEVER heard of) is suddenly going to convince those undecided voters and Democrat-leaning voters to suddenly start supporting DT. I would view that sort of choice as a "Sarah Palin" move that would inevitably backfire.

[Steven43]

Trump has to be thinking of jettisoning Pence for a woman if he can. Between positive news cycles for people other than Trump in the next week, and the desire to make a big splash, it has to at least cross his mind.

He is impulsive, and wants the news to all be about him and his campaign. He is concerned about Harris and has not rolled out a very strong attack despite the knowledge that Harris had to be on the short list for some time. Jared and Ivanka reportedly brought this idea up to Trump six months ago, and Trump has apparently mused on it before. He has to change the dynamics and bring a positive jolt to things -- quickly.

If I could find betting odds on Kristi Noem being his running mate, I would take that bet with the right odds.

Voters don’t cast their vote for president based on the VP running mate. Pence is largely viewed as fairly innocuous. Though he was supposedly in charge of the Coronavirus task force I don’t hear much blame being placed on him in relation to the overall effort to combat the virus.

Most who take issue with the US government response to the virus blame Trump most of all. Getting rid of Pence would not fool anyone.

[duke79]

Kinda surprising that her approval rating among Black voters is so much lower than Democratic voters given Black voters are overwhelming Democrats. I guess that's her prosecutor background hurting her among some cohorts perhaps. On the other hand, perhaps it's not surprising as she's wasn't the preferred candidate in the primary among Black voters - Biden was.

I'm HIGHLY skeptical about the reliability and accuracy of these type of "instant" polls, taken right after a major announcement or event. It's a big, very diverse country and I just don't believe you can accurately assemble a very small pool of representative individuals that reflect how the entire cohort might feel.

[duke79]

Voters don’t cast their vote for president based on the VP running mate. Pence is largely viewed as fairly innocuous. Though he was supposedly in charge of the Coronavirus task force I don’t hear much blame being placed on him in relation to the overall effort to combat the virus.

Most who take issue with the US government response to the virus blame Trump most of all. Getting rid of Pence would not fool anyone.

Totally agree here!

[Phredd3]

President Trump says, "“The items are the post office and the $3.5 billion for mail-in voting,” Trump told Fox Business Network, saying Democrats want to give the post office $25 billion. If we don’t make the deal, that means they can’t have the money."

Lincoln Project in 3, 2, 1....

[OldPhiKap]

LOL, you never know what DT MIGHT be thinking and it would not surprise me completely IF he tried a "hail Mary" type of play - dumping MP for someone else and possibly a woman. BUT I don't really think that choosing Kristi Noem (whom 99.5% of Americans have NEVER heard of) is suddenly going to convince those undecided voters and Democrat-leaning voters to suddenly start supporting DT. I would view that sort of choice as a "Sarah Palin" move that would inevitably backfire.

Voters don’t cast their vote for president based on the VP running mate. Pence is largely viewed as fairly innocuous. Though he was supposedly in charge of the Coronavirus task force I don’t hear much blame being placed on him in relation to the overall effort to combat the virus.

Most who take issue with the US government response to the virus blame Trump most of all. Getting rid of Pence would not fool anyone.

These are both very logical responses. But I don't think Trump is guided by logic on this.

Above and beyond all else, Trump is a shrewd and successful showman. That has been the hallmark of each stage of his career since he was in his 20's. The lens through which he looks is not one of logic, but rather -- what makes good television? What creates buzz around me? What allows me to be the center of a story? What changes the negative narrative that has bogged me down for months/years? What excites the base?

A telegenic female VP pick does all of that, instantly. Keeping Pence does none of that. Early voting starts in some states in a little over a month. Time to shake things up.

Anyway, it's just a hunch. But I would seriously consider it if I was advising him. We know that Ivanka, Jared and Trump himself have mused on the subject in the past if reports are to be believed.

[nmduke2001]

These are both very logical responses. But I don't think Trump is guided by logic on this.

Above and beyond all else, Trump is a shrewd and successful showman. That has been the hallmark of each stage of his career since he was in his 20's. The lens through which he looks is not one of logic, but rather -- what makes good television? What creates buzz around me? What allows me to be the center of a story? What changes the negative narrative that has bogged me down for months/years? What excites the base?

A telegenic female VP pick does all of that, instantly. Keeping Pence does none of that. Early voting starts in some states in a little over a month. Time to shake things up.

Anyway, it's just a hunch. But I would seriously consider it if I was advising him. We know that Ivanka, Jared and Trump himself have mused on the subject in the past if reports are to be believed.

I wonder how Pence would react to such a move, especially if DT changes course and acknowledges COVID response shortcomings and blames them all on Pence. Months ago when they made a big show of naming Pence the COVID lead I told my wife that they were just setting him up to be the fall guy.

Would Pence fight back? How would Christian Conservatives respond if Mike Pence starts to bad mouth DT? Is it too big of a risk for DT?

[Steven43]

These are both very logical responses. But I don't think Trump is guided by logic on this.

Above and beyond all else, Trump is a shrewd and successful showman. That has been the hallmark of each stage of his career since he was in his 20's. The lens through which he looks is not one of logic, but rather -- what makes good television? What creates buzz around me? What allows me to be the center of a story? What changes the negative narrative that has bogged me down for months/years? What excites the base?

A telegenic female VP pick does all of that, instantly. Keeping Pence does none of that. Early voting starts in some states in a little over a month. Time to shake things up.

Anyway, it's just a hunch. But I would seriously consider it if I was advising him. We know that Ivanka, Jared and Trump himself have mused on the subject in the past if reports are to be believed.

Fair enough, but wouldn’t Trump’s firing of Pence be seen as an admission of failure as well as his own lack of judgment? After all he is the one who chose Pence to begin with — both for the position of VP running mate and again nearly four years later as the head of the Coronavirus task force.

When is the last time you remember Trump admitting to failure or a lack of good judgment? I’ll wait while you comb through a 74-year history of him never admitting to either. 😊

[JasonEvans]

Fair enough, but wouldn’t Trump’s firing of Pence be seen as an admission of failure as well as his own lack of judgment? After all he is the one who chose Pence to begin with — both for the position of VP running mate and again nearly four years later as the head of the Coronavirus task force.

When is the last time you remember Trump admitting to failure or a lack of good judgment? I’ll wait while you comb through a 74-year history of him never admitting to either. 😊

We have 13 more days to muse about this if ya'll want. But, on Wednesday August 26th, the Republican convention will vote on the person to be the Presidential and VP nominees. At that point, the notion of dropping Pence becomes much more complicated.

Having the two conventions back to back, with no crowds in attendance, is really gonna be strange. I'm guessing they will just do all the speeches via Cisco WebX or something like that (Zoom?). With no crowd applauding, they will lose a lot of the energy. I wonder if either party will be able to come up with some way of simulating an audience or having a virtual audience that interacts with the speaker.

[OldPhiKap]

Fair enough, but wouldn’t Trump’s firing of Pence be seen as an admission of failure as well as his own lack of judgment? After all he is the one who chose Pence to begin with — both for the position of VP running mate and nearly four years later as the head of the Coronavirus task force.

When is the last time you remember Trump admitting to failure or a lack of good judgment? I’ll wait while you comb through a 74-year history of him never admitting to either. ��

Other than Pence, Stephen Miller, Elaine Cho, and Kellyanne Conway, I think he has replaced about everyone major over the years. From memory (so likely to be ballpark close but not fully correct) he has had four chiefs of staff, four press secretaries, and four national security advisors. He has had higher turnover than the last five most recent presidents -- some of whom served eight years -- per NBC and the Brookings Institute. So again, I don't disagree from a logical perspective. I just don't think that is the prime driving factor in any decision he makes, and his history shows that changing team members is not unusual for him. "You're fired" is a catchphrase he has promoted in the past (although I think it is fairer to say that most folks quit on him).

Trump has constantly thrown those around him under the bus. Not sure one more body makes a difference at this point. Replacing Pence would not be an admission of failure in Trump's mind -- just another person that let him down.


ETA -- I agree with Jason that such a move would have to be done before the Republican convention. If he was going to do it, I think he would start floating it soon to steal some thunder from the Dem Convention. At least, that's what I would do.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Who would want to risk it, knowing that as of today Trump is in a losing battle? It's one thing to say he'll drop Pence, but there is no sense in doing that unless he is replaced with a big name.

[Furniture]

Fair enough, but wouldn’t Trump’s firing of Pence be seen as an admission of failure as well as his own lack of judgment? After all he is the one who chose Pence to begin with — both for the position of VP running mate and again nearly four years later as the head of the Coronavirus task force.

When is the last time you remember Trump admitting to failure or a lack of good judgment? I’ll wait while you comb through a 74-year history of him never admitting to either. ��

Plus he is already predicting that Pence will do “very well” in the VP debate.