2020 Presidential Election

[El_Diablo]

Busy day today!

Shepard Smith (one of a small number of people on the network who have been willing to report critically on Trump on air) is departing Fox News:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/11/b...gtype=Homepage

It is unclear whether Smith was forced out, but this comes in the wake of increased back-and-forth between the Smith and some other on-air personalities at the network, pointed criticism from Trump regarding a Fox News poll that reflected support for impeachment and two days after Attorney General met privately with Rupert Murdoch in Murdoch's home.

In other news, Trump suffered a series of legal setbacks today. Specifically:

1. The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals upheld a lower court ruling saying that the president's accountant must turn over eight years of accounting records. Trump had been fighting a subpoena by the House Oversight Committee demanding the firm turn over the records.
2. A federal judge in Texas ruled that Trump's national emergency declaration to build a border wall is unlawful and appears poised to block Trump's redirection of funds for the wall.
3. A federal judge blocked a sweeping regulation that would've made it easier for the Trump administration to reject green card and visa applications filed by low-income immigrants.
4. It was revealed today that the business relationship between Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani and the men charged Thursday in a campaign finance scheme (involving, among other things, the illegal use of funds from Russia) is the subject of an ongoing criminal investigation being conducted by federal authorities in New York.

[SouthernDukie]

Shep said on air that he asked for his release, Fox News asked him to stay, but that he persisted and was granted his release. This all just means that the echo chamber at Fox got all the bigger - or smaller - whichever way one wants to describe it.

[-jk]

Several posts have been deleted - please do not wade into PPB territory (especially when you begin a post by saying "I know this is getting into PPB territory" - if you know better, don't do it!)

Indeed. Just because Jason is away...

(And thanks, pfr. Next time there's such a need to delete, I'll follow up with a heavy hammer with time-outs.)

-jk

[dudog84]

I think we're getting pretty close to some violence here. "Unholy alliance", "hates America". It only takes a very, very small percentage of nuts in a country of 325 million. This makes no sense as an electoral strategy. I don't think this rhetoric will play well among moderates, independents, and undecideds...and if there is bloodshed, even worse. I don't think Trump will be removed by the Senate. But if he loses the election, what will he tell his supporters?

“unholy alliance of corrupt Democrat politicians, deep-state bureaucrats and the fake news media”

"Nancy Pelosi hates the United States of America"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...osi/ar-AAIEq6K

[PackMan97]

"Nancy Pelosi hates America

...indeed she does, as this video proves.

[dudog84]

And now we're completely evacuating northern Syria. Will be interesting to see how this plays out in public opinion. May not move the needle much, unless Turkey starts slaughtering Kurdish women and children or ISIS comes back. Even then I'm not sure it matters to people in this country unless they're hit at home.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...Hbj?li=BBnb7Kz

[sagegrouse]

And now we're completely evacuating northern Syria. Will be interesting to see how this plays out in public opinion. May not move the needle much, unless Turkey starts slaughtering Kurdish women and children or ISIS comes back. Even then I'm not sure it matters to people in this country unless they're hit at home.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...Hbj?li=BBnb7Kz

It does matter to conservatives in Congress (as well as some moderates and liberals). And if they oppose Trump, it will be noticed by many knowledgeable voters of all stripes.

[budwom]

It does matter to conservatives in Congress (as well as some moderates and liberals). And if they oppose Trump, it will be noticed by many knowledgeable voters of all stripes.

That's the real question, will Repubs in congress make an issue of this, or are they too afraid of the political consequences?

[cato]

That's the real question, will Repubs in congress make an issue of this, or are they too afraid of the political consequences?

Foreign affairs seems to be the one area where Rs can push back on Trump and not face political consequences.

As for Trump, I do not think this will blow over easily. Leaving an overmatched ally to fight by themselves is not going to set well with many people.

[OldPhiKap]

Foreign affairs seems to be the one area where Rs can push back on Trump and not face political consequences.

As for Trump, I do not think this will blow over easily. Leaving an overmatched ally to fight by themselves is not going to set well with many people.

On daily tv, for as long as the networks choose to televise it.

[dudog84]

It does matter to conservatives in Congress (as well as some moderates and liberals). And if they oppose Trump, it will be noticed by many knowledgeable voters of all stripes.

Got many of them in Colorado? If you got extra, maybe you could spread them around some other states.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Foreign affairs seems to be the one area where Rs can push back on Trump and not face political consequences.

As for Trump, I do not think this will blow over easily. Leaving an overmatched ally to fight by themselves is not going to set well with many people.

I generally disagree. As I understood it, what drove so many people to Trump was that they thought that he would help them with the issues that impact their day-to-day life. I don't think this is really on their radar, and I don't think they particularly care. A huge portion of Americans have no idea where these places even are. Unless their Republican Senators and Representatives really actively turn against Trump due to this issue, they are not even going to notice. As far as issue go, this is a big nothing-burger that will likely blow over just like everything else seems to.

[PackMan97]

I generally disagree. As I understood it, what drove so many people to Trump was that they thought that he would help them with the issues that impact their day-to-day life. I don't think this is really on their radar, and I don't think they particularly care. A huge portion of Americans have no idea where these places even are. Unless their Republican Senators and Representatives really actively turn against Trump due to this issue, they are not even going to notice. As far as issue go, this is a big nothing-burger that will likely blow over just like everything else seems to.

I disagree with your disagreement.

There are still a significant amount of college educated urban and suburbanites that voted for Trump and support him (as perhaps the lesser of two evils, but all the same the Democrats aren't showing any moderation in their primary to make a lesser of two evils voter to change their opinion). These folks do care about the Kurds/ISIS/Turkey and our place on the world stage. Trump won 2016 by a thin margin. It's not going to take much in the way of loss of votes from a Trade War, or loss of votes from foreign policy missteps to cause him to lose in a few key states.

While this won't be an all out rebellion of his base, even a percent or two of his support slinking away in the night and not voting in 2020 could easily be enough to cause a loss.

[SouthernDukie]

I generally disagree. As I understood it, what drove so many people to Trump was that they thought that he would help them with the issues that impact their day-to-day life. I don't think this is really on their radar, and I don't think they particularly care. A huge portion of Americans have no idea where these places even are. Unless their Republican Senators and Representatives really actively turn against Trump due to this issue, they are not even going to notice. As far as issue go, this is a big nothing-burger that will likely blow over just like everything else seems to.

10, maybe even 5, years ago Conservatives would have cared. But things have so radically changed that I believe you are probably right. Some will still care, but I don’t think the majority in the conservative camp will get animated about this.

[dudog84]

I disagree with your disagreement.

There are still a significant amount of college educated urban and suburbanites that voted for Trump and support him (as perhaps the lesser of two evils, but all the same the Democrats aren't showing any moderation in their primary to make a lesser of two evils voter to change their opinion). These folks do care about the Kurds/ISIS/Turkey and our place on the world stage. Trump won 2016 by a thin margin. It's not going to take much in the way of loss of votes from a Trade War, or loss of votes from foreign policy missteps to cause him to lose in a few key states.

While this won't be an all out rebellion of his base, even a percent or two of his support slinking away in the night and not voting in 2020 could easily be enough to cause a loss.

Ridiculous, Biden is still leading in most of the polls. Let's let this play out. You're assuming Warren (decent chance) or Sanders (no chance) will be the nominee.

[dudog84]

It does matter to conservatives in Congress (as well as some moderates and liberals). And if they oppose Trump, it will be noticed by many knowledgeable voters of all stripes.

That's the real question, will Repubs in congress make an issue of this, or are they too afraid of the political consequences?

It appears the question is being answered:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...9D6?li=BBnb7Kz

Annoying quote of the week:

(Defense Secretary Mark) Esper told reporters Friday that..."we have not abandoned the Kurds."

Don't know what else a complete evacuation could be called. The thing is, sanctions are a bit late for any dead Kurdish allies.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Post Ukraine/Syria polling.

As of today, opposition to impeachment has plummeted 7 percentage points (to 44 percent) and support has climbed nearly 10 points (to 49.8 percent), according to FiveThirtyEight’s preliminary polling tracker.

That rapid 17-point shift means a majority of Americans may soon support impeachment, or, taking margin of error into account, might already. And that’s terrible news for Trump.

Ouch.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/2020-visi...155723081.html

[bundabergdevil]

Post Ukraine/Syria polling.



Ouch.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/2020-visi...155723081.html

FiveThirtyEight has also had up a couple of articles recently discussing key points of inflection or acceleration in public opinion. These have essentially argued that dramatic change tends to happen all at once like a cracked dam that's held up under pressure as long as possible but finally burst. We won't know if this is that moment for a while (or something that reverts back to what's been a surprisingly stable base of support for Trump) but it sure feels like this incident has resonated with more people than anything we've encountered so far. The best historical comparison, the Nixon presidency, seems to support this assessment. It took lots of months to play out and Nixon had a lot of support for a long time until he didn't. The link is Pew.

In other news, while this can't be attributed directly to Trump, it's probably not good timing that a doctored video of Trump putting bullets and knives in the heads and bodies of political adversaries like Obama, Mitt Romney, and John McCain is getting play.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Something relevant to me!

At least kinda sorta. ECU ran a poll of North Carolinians, and had some interesting results. ECU is definitively in "Red" country, so I'm curious to know who they actually polled. (Remember the "Send them back" chant? That was at ECU.)

-50% of registered voters in North Carolina oppose the impeachment and removal of President Trump from office compared to 44% who favor it.

-More than 80% of self-identified Democrats favor impeachment compared to 9% of Republicans and 36% of independents and unaffiliated registered voters.

-Only 44% of registered voters in North Carolina think that Trump should be re-elected compared to 51% who think it is time for someone else to be president.

-North Carolina is almost evenly split on Trump’s job performance, with 45% who approve and 47% who disapprove.

https://www.witn.com/content/news/EC...563071031.html

On the whole, those numbers don't bode well for a guy that won the state last time.

[pfrduke]

I’ve had to delete several posts in the past few days that did not stick to the “horse race” mandate of this thread and instead tried to have general policy discussions. Don’t do it. Just because Jason is gone doesn’t mean this thing is going unmoderated.