2020 Presidential Election

[tbyers11]

So, this is all going to add up and matter to help with early voting and turnout. Some states that matter have accepted (MI, WI) and some have not (PA, FL). I hadn't realized the depth and breadth of this activity, TBH. All those sites, while open to everyone, are obviously being pushed by athletes and franchises (and their corporate partners) that favor Democrats and are very specifically seeking to turnout the black vote at higher rates than 2016.

This seems like a bigger deal than I originally thought it would be.

Not all of FL is being left out. Amway Center, home of the Orlando Magic, will be an early voting center in Orange County. The arena is located in an area just west of downtown that didn’t have many early voting centers in previous elections.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

JE's post on the main board about Duke's Brotherhood's voting and social justice efforts got me checking on the status of the sport's stadiums again. This NBCNews article is the latest run down that I've been able to find.

This is the money excerpt:

"I want to get between 50 and 100 arenas open across the country," said Eugene Jarecki, co-chair of the Election Super Centers Project. "I think each one of them can process about 40,000 people. So do the math on how huge that could be."


If his math and projections are right, his goal is to process 2M - 4M votes at these sites. Live Nation is also working on converting its sites. Foot Locker (I didn't know they still existed, let alone there are 2000+ of them) will do the same thing.

So, this is all going to add up and matter to help with early voting and turnout. Some states that matter have accepted (MI, WI) and some have not (PA, FL). I hadn't realized the depth and breadth of this activity, TBH. All those sites, while open to everyone, are obviously being pushed by athletes and franchises (and their corporate partners) that favor Democrats and are very specifically seeking to turnout the black vote at higher rates than 2016.

This seems like a bigger deal than I originally thought it would be.

I think that this is a great development. Everyone who wants to vote should be able to vote. Period. It truly befuddles me that this is not something that is universally agreed upon. Now I am just hopeful that there will be enough voting booths and poll workers to staff all of these facilities.

[Tappan Zee Devil]

I don't see how DC statehood changes anything. The 23rd amendment gives it three electoral votes. Making it a state would still only give it three electoral votes.

Now, if we want to take the discussion over to the Congressional Elections thread, I'm sure the Democrats would be happy for two forever-D seats to be added to the Senate.

Two senators from DC make a BIG difference as do two additional senators from Puerto Rico

[mph]

Collins and Murkowski are “no” votes on confirmation hearings. Cory Gardner is a “yes.” I thought Gardner was the most likely to waiver as the confirmation debate could be a net-negative for him given the specifics of his race. His path to victory (if there is there is one) seems to be staying focused on Hickenlooper’s ethics complaint and creating strategic distance between himself and Trump on the environment.

That leaves Mitt as a possible no vote but I think it’s much more likely he’s a yes. Even if Romney’s a no, where does the 4th vote come from? I’m not seeing it.

[OldPhiKap]

Got my absentee ballot yesterday. It’s on.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Got my absentee ballot yesterday. It’s on.

Make sure your signature is in the right place(s) and exactly matches the one they have on file. And make sure it is properly postmarked. Otherwise the fake voting police will get you. Because in the middle of a massive pandemic that has killed over 200,000 Americans and eliminated countless jobs, that is where we need to be investing all of our time and mental energy.

[budwom]

Make sure your signature is in the right place(s) and exactly matches the one they have on file. And make sure it is properly postmarked. Otherwise the fake voting police will get you. Because in the middle of a massive pandemic that has killed over 200,000 Americans and eliminated countless jobs, that is where we need to be investing all of our time and mental energy.

this, of course is the rub...good luck ensuring that your signature is "identical." Basically, no one's matches one from 10 or 15 years ago...if evildoers want to exclude someone, they'll find a nefarious way.

[bundabergdevil]

Two senators from DC make a BIG difference as do two additional senators from Puerto Rico

Yes, with the current rural-republican alignment, it is very tough for the Democrats on the Senate front.

[OldPhiKap]

this, of course is the rub...good luck ensuring that your signature is "identical." Basically, no one's matches one from 10 or 15 years ago...if evildoers want to exclude someone, they'll find a nefarious way.

Hell, I sign dozens of letters and checks every day and my signature is not identical from one to the other.

Regardless, I mailed off my ballot today. Done, until the Georgia Senate run-off.

[gumbomoop]

this, of course is the rub...good luck ensuring that your signature is "identical." Basically, no one's matches one from 10 or 15 years ago...if evildoers want to exclude someone, they'll find a nefarious way.

Amen to this point. This is precisely why I’ve decided to vote early in person. Fortunately it appears that I will be able to vote in person in an abandoned K-Mart, which I assume and hope means plenty of social distancing.

It will also be interesting to see whether the K-Mart parking lot will be the scene of attempts at voter intimidation. I wonder whether such early attempts will be repeated across the country. I also wonder whether such efforts at intimidation will persuade undecideds to move their needle toward the candidate favored by the putative intimidators. I doubt it, but who knows?

And as to CNC’s point above, I also worry that the “fake voting police” will suppress and therefore steal votes.

Our constitutional democratic republic is being undermined, daily.

[Tripping William]

Collins and Murkowski are “no” votes on confirmation hearings. Cory Gardner is a “yes.” I thought Gardner was the most likely to waiver as the confirmation debate could be a net-negative for him given the specifics of his race. His path to victory (if there is there is one) seems to be staying focused on Hickenlooper’s ethics complaint and creating strategic distance between himself and Trump on the environment.

That leaves Mitt as a possible no vote but I think it’s much more likely he’s a yes. Even if Romney’s a no, where does the 4th vote come from? I’m not seeing it.

Romney is a yes:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...nominee-419898

[bundabergdevil]

Romney is a yes:

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...nominee-419898

Seems right. Feels like a bit of game theory in action. The legitimacy of this decision is at it's highest if they wait until after November 4th and Trump wins and Republicans retain control of the Senate. They obviously don't know that and there is good evidence to suggest one or both of those things won't happen. The legitimacy of this decision is at it's second highest doing what they plan on doing, which is try to push it through before the election. Legitimacy plummets in the post-November 4th scenario in which one or both of the presidency or senate have been lost.

Ugly days a comin'.

[JasonEvans]

More than a dozen posts that were discussions about the SCOTUS seat and were not connected to the horse race have been deleted. A couple warnings were handed out as well.

Folks, I want to be really clear -- if you post something about SCOTUS that is not connected to the horse race, you are going to get dinged. Don't be upset or surprised when it happens. We are not going to have a debate about the validity of the SCOTUS seat or how the Dems will respond to it because that is an inherently partisan conversation. Clean it up or you will get popped.

Meanwhile, here is a new poll that finds a pretty wide disapproval gap (20 points) in seating a new Justice at this late stage of the election process. While I doubt this will dissuade Republicans at all, I wonder if it makes things a bit tougher for some Republicans seeking reelection (both President and some key senators):

[sagegrouse]

Make sure your signature is in the right place(s) and exactly matches the one they have on file. And make sure it is properly postmarked. Otherwise the fake voting police will get you. Because in the middle of a massive pandemic that has killed over 200,000 Americans and eliminated countless jobs, that is where we need to be investing all of our time and mental energy.

this, of course is the rub...good luck ensuring that your signature is "identical." Basically, no one's matches one from 10 or 15 years ago...if evildoers want to exclude someone, they'll find a nefarious way.

Here's a story and video on Jefferson County, Colorado and its handling of mail-in ballots. It looks at every ballot; it uses available software on comparing signatures; and it has humans reviewing everything. Otherwise, pretty automated. Colorado is a vote-by-mail state (with some percentage at drop boxes).

Impressive, I thought.

[LasVegas]

Thanks for the new poll, JE.

This is what I’ve been hitting at since RBG passed away. The GOP is on the wrong side of this and it will potentially cost them a lot. They obviously either think they have a good enough shot at keeping the senate or just don’t care that the Dems could go rogue for 2 years of complete control.

For Trump, it’s getting very interesting. New polls out today showed the race even in Iowa and Georgia. This thing is getting really close to an outcome that is either a blowout win by Biden or a very, very close race. Biden really needs to put everything he has into PA and FL. Trump needs to do this too but also stop the bleeding in other small states he won in 2016.

Put another way, if the polls are off by 3 points or so in Biden’s favor, he probably comes up with 400+ electoral votes. If they tilt the other way, we might not know the outcome for weeks

[nmduke2001]

Here's a story and video on Jefferson County, Colorado and its handling of mail-in ballots. It looks at every ballot; it uses available software on comparing signatures; and it has humans reviewing everything. Otherwise, pretty automated. Colorado is a vote-by-mail state (with some percentage at drop boxes).

Impressive, I thought.

This actually worries me a bit. I'm not sure when I registered in NM. I would guess when I returned in 2005. I am not sure what my signature looked like back then. At one point in my life, you could make out all the letters in my signature, now it's basically 5 letters that you can make out. Software nor human eye could verify that it was the same signature. Luckily, I was planning on voting early in person anyway.

[Rich]

Thanks for the new poll, JE.

This is what I’ve been hitting at since RBG passed away. The GOP is on the wrong side of this and it will potentially cost them a lot. They obviously either think they have a good enough shot at keeping the senate or just don’t care that the Dems could go rogue for 2 years of complete control.

For Trump, it’s getting very interesting. New polls out today showed the race even in Iowa and Georgia. This thing is getting really close to an outcome that is either a blowout win by Biden or a very, very close race. Biden really needs to put everything he has into PA and FL. Trump needs to do this too but also stop the bleeding in other small states he won in 2016.

Put another way, if the polls are off by 3 points or so in Biden’s favor, he probably comes up with 400+ electoral votes. If they tilt the other way, we might not know the outcome for weeks

With all the mail-in voting we may not know the outcome for weeks regardless.

[sagegrouse]

This actually worries me a bit. I'm not sure when I registered in NM. I would guess when I returned in 2005. I am not sure what my signature looked like back then. At one point in my life, you could make out all the letters in my signature, now it's basically 5 letters that you can make out. Software nor human eye could verify that it was the same signature. Luckily, I was planning on voting early in person anyway.

Money quote from the article:

And it works. Don't take my word for it, Mr. President. Colorado's Secretary of State Jena Griswold said election officials referred 0.0027% of all ballots cast during the 2018 midterm election for further investigation while data from the conservative Heritage Foundation shows nine instances of voter fraud out of millions of ballots cast since Colorado adopted universal vote-by-mail in 2013.

So, out of a million ballots, that's 27 ballots set-aside for further investigation. You could never be that lucky!

Mail-in voting here started in 2013 (for some reason we seem to vote every year). There were 2.8 million votes cast in 2016, 1.9 million in the Senate race in 2014 and (I guess) about the same in 2018. So, nine cases of voting fraud out of over 6 million in a vote-by-mail state.

We had a distinguished demographer speak at our speaker series a few years ago. Asked about ballot fraud, he replied, "We don't even like to vote when it's legal, much less when it's illegal."

[bundabergdevil]

With all the mail-in voting we may not know the outcome for weeks regardless.

The idea that there may be a 'blue shift' in the voting based on relative preference of Dems and Reps for mail-in voting features heavily into the the scenario planning (e.g., "war gaming") around this election. It's also a scenario that Trump is already pointing to as evidence of widespread voter fraud to buoy his chances to win the horserace and undermine voter confidence.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

More than a dozen posts that were discussions about the SCOTUS seat and were not connected to the horse race have been deleted. A couple warnings were handed out as well.

Folks, I want to be really clear -- if you post something about SCOTUS that is not connected to the horse race, you are going to get dinged. Don't be upset or surprised when it happens. We are not going to have a debate about the validity of the SCOTUS seat or how the Dems will respond to it because that is an inherently partisan conversation. Clean it up or you will get popped.

Meanwhile, here is a new poll that finds a pretty wide disapproval gap (20 points) in seating a new Justice at this late stage of the election process. While I doubt this will dissuade Republicans at all, I wonder if it makes things a bit tougher for some Republicans seeking reelection (both President and some key senators):

I would like to see race by race polling on this, rather than broader polling. As with the presidential race where the electoral college is all that matters, what matters most here are contested races. There are 33 Senate races this year, and at least half are M&Mers (mismatches in Dick Vitale speak). The broader polling is relevant from the perspective of donations, but otherwise, it is the state by state polling that really matters here. I'm guessing that is not available at this point and the smaller the group, the less reliable the polling is, but this is what would be most helpful (though to be honest, I find most polling to be fairly useless). There can be huge overall disapproval but if the Republicans get the votes in the right places, it really doesn't matter at all.