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  1. #9981
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Of Biden voters, 57% voting AGAINST Trump.
    IMO, this group will also be a large number of single issue voters.

  2. #9982
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Poll geek Nirvana:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/lraqqdhd...nTabReport.pdf

    On the issue of enthusiasm for/against a candidate:


    Biden -- 21% enthusiastic for him, 34% upset with him.

    Trump -- 28% enthusiastic for him, 47% upset with him.


    Of Biden voters, 42% voting FOR Biden, 57% AGAINST Trump.

    Of Trump voters, 74% voting FOR Trump, 19% AGAINST Biden.


    Lots of good stuff in there, pretty thorough. Poll is B-rated by Nate.
    I would guess that the 57% voting against Trump is similar to how Trump benefited from anti HRC sentiments in 2016...bottom line, is doesn't matter what your motivation is, it's who you vote for.

  3. #9983
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    This thread has now hit Page 500.

    That is slightly ahead of the 2016 race, where we hit that marker in early August.
    I'm wondering which thread will have more posts on election day, this one or the coronavirus thread. That one is just over a 100 pages behind, but also many months younger than this one.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  4. #9984
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Poll geek Nirvana:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/lraqqdhd...nTabReport.pdf

    On the issue of enthusiasm for/against a candidate:


    Biden -- 21% enthusiastic for him, 34% upset with him.

    Trump -- 28% enthusiastic for him, 47% upset with him.


    Of Biden voters, 42% voting FOR Biden, 57% AGAINST Trump.

    Of Trump voters, 74% voting FOR Trump, 19% AGAINST Biden.


    Lots of good stuff in there, pretty thorough. Poll is B-rated by Nate.
    You mean an election featuring an incumbent is all about the incumbent? Shocked... shocked, I say.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  5. #9985
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    I wonder how they phrased that questioning.
    "Are you voting for Joe Biden?"
    "Yes"
    "Well are you voting FOOOORRRRR Biden, or against Trump?"
    "Um, both?"
    "You can't do that. Pick one."
    "Uhhh, then against Trump, maybe?"
    "Ok, so you think Biden sucks but Trump sucks more."
    "Wait...nooo, can we start over?"
    "Sure...so you are voting against Biden now?"
    "Click"
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  6. #9986
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    ^ yeah, there's a lot of nuance to this. I could, for example, be both very pro Biden, yet motivated even more by Trump to vote for Biden.

  7. #9987
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    I wonder how they phrased that questioning.
    "Are you voting for Joe Biden?"
    "Yes"
    "Well are you voting FOOOORRRRR Biden, or against Trump?"
    "Um, both?"
    "You can't do that. Pick one."
    "Uhhh, then against Trump, maybe?"
    "Ok, so you think Biden sucks but Trump sucks more."
    "Wait...nooo, can we start over?"
    "Sure...so you are voting against Biden now?"
    "Click"
    Why I love caller ID!

  8. #9988
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    ^ yeah, there's a lot of nuance to this. I could, for example, be both very pro Biden, yet motivated even more by Trump to vote for Biden.
    Yup, and there is also an unconscious bias that happens when being asked a poll question that can skew the answers. A fair percentage of Biden supporters who pay attention to the news and polling may have seen the stories about a supposed "enthusiasm gap" regarding how excited voters are to vote for their preferred candidate. So, when they answer about their enthusiasm for Biden they play it up because they want to make his numbers seem stronger. It happens, not in huge numbers, but it does happen.

    The thing the enthusiasm gap misses is the degree to which Trump has inflamed passions on the other side. If you ask a liberal Democrat how excited they are about Biden, they might say he is a "meh" candidate who is older than they would like and that he has a history of jogging to the middle that is somewhat troubling. But, if you then ask that voter on a scale from 1-10 how likely they are to vote, the Trump-hating liberal will say "11... no, make it 13. How much higher than 10 can I go?"

    Enthusiasm usually means how excited you are to vote for your guy... this year is also means how excited you are to vote the other guy out of office.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  9. #9989
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Location
    Thomasville, NC
    Any hope for debates?

  10. #9990
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Any hope for debates?
    I have no doubt the debates will happen, the question is what the forum will be. Not a snowball's chance they will be per the usual public setting, but will they involve both candidates on stage at the same time with moderators, or will they be virtual?
    And if they are virtual, can you imagine the arm waving on both sides behind the cameras from each candidate's team?

    "Noooo!!! Don't go there!!!!...crap, he went there. Are the flash cards too small, Bob? Those things are like 3 feet wide, how did he not read that talking point?! Next debate, let's just make one that says 'Shut up now' ".
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  11. #9991
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Devilwin View Post
    Any hope for debates?
    Debates in a TV studio like Nixon-Kennedy? Likely.

    A virtual town hall? Yup.

    Debates in front of a large live audience? Not with our current national (non)policy of dealing with COVID. I doubt we will have traditional conventions next month, and there is no indication that things will be better in the fall for debates. Frankly, things will likely be much worse by then if the White House really tries to force schools to “fully open” as Trump tweeted today.

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