2020 Presidential Election

[Acymetric]

You're right, never assume! Here's a perfect example.

I had no idea there were more than 1.6 million felons in Florida. Given that, I thought they may have gone from being unable to vote to having the most important votes in the U.S.A. Since I expected the majority to vote Democrat, I thought they would change the Florida vote.

https://www.newsweek.com/felons-vote...anders-1404728

"In another study about the 2016 Florida election, Meredith and Morse found nonblack ex-felon voters were mostly registered Republicans (40 percent, with the rest split between Democrats and unaffiliated voters) while black ex-felon voters were overwhelmingly registered Democrats (87 percent). Yet turnout didn't exceed 16 percent for either group. Because of turnout rates, they estimated that if all ex-felons had the right to vote Democrats would have gained 48,000 votes, which is around 0.25 percent of the voting age population—not nearly enough to swing the state.

The potential for the ex-felon vote to swing any state is "very unlikely," according to Meredith."

One pretty significant quibble. They can't compare the number of voting eligible felons adjusted for turnout rate to the total number of voting age people in Florida. They should have compared it to number of actual voters in 2016 (so also adjusted for turnout rate) not the total voting age population.

[JasonEvans]

I tend to think of it as 57% of the population thought Clinton was not the best choice, 43% thought he was the best choice.

We are not going to get into a partisan discussion of Bill Clinton's presidency. Please stop now!

[howardlander]

One pretty significant quibble. They can't compare the number of voting eligible felons adjusted for turnout rate to the total number of voting age people in Florida. They should have compared it to number of actual voters in 2016 (so also adjusted for turnout rate) not the total voting age population.

Here's another quibble: 48000 votes can be a lot in Florida, which does have a history of quite close results in Presidential elections...

[Jeffrey]

Upon reflection, a substantial third party would probably divide our country even further. While more voters would probably have a preferred candidate, probably less voters would have preferred the elected POTUS.

There’s no easy answers. As Ken Kesey repeatedly said, “everything bruises something, you trade off”.

[JasonEvans]

The chart of who has qualified for the debate really shows how stratified the field has become.

[throatybeard]

For all the talk about Mayor Pete's surge, he's polling at 9% in both CA and TX. Super Tuesday states where he will fall way behind in the delegate count if he doesn't at least reach 15%. Yeah, yeah, if he wins IA or NH that changes everything. Except I think the Ds are starting to look askance at IA and NH and there is growing resentment at these two states' outsized influence on the primary.

It's particularly grave on the D side of primaries; these are tragicomically super-white places, which is a huge departure from the demographics of the party nationwide.

[PackMan97]

Wow. That is very trelling for some candidates. Is there any reason for those falling behind and not a billionaire seeking to self fund... Why would you stay in the race.

I really like how the democrats are doing this ahead on the primaries. There really needs to be a smallish field come Super Tuesday.

[JasonEvans]

Here's another quibble: 48000 votes can be a lot in Florida, which does have a history of quite close results in Presidential elections...

2016 - Trump won by 112,911
2012 - Obama won by 74,309
2008 - Obama won by 236,450
2004 - Bush won by 380,978
2000 - Bush won by 537
1996 - Clinton won by 302,334
1992 - GHW Bush won by 100,612
1988 - GHW Bush won by 962,069

So, 48k votes would only have changed the outcome in Florida once in modern presidential times (it would have barely changed things back in 1964 too, but there were only 1.8 million folks voting in Florida back then so 48,000 made a muuuch bigger difference than it does today when 5x more people vote in the Sunshine state).

-Jason "That said, it is worth noting that in the 2018 Governor's race, DeSantis beat Gillum by only 32,463 and Scott beat Nelson by a paltry 10,033" Evans

[bundabergdevil]

2016 - Trump won by 112,911
2012 - Obama won by 74,309
2008 - Obama won by 236,450
2004 - Bush won by 380,978
2000 - Bush won by 537
1996 - Clinton won by 302,334
1992 - GHW Bush won by 100,612
1988 - GHW Bush won by 962,069

So, 48k votes would only have changed the outcome in Florida once in modern presidential times (it would have barely changed things back in 1964 too, but there were only 1.8 million folks voting in Florida back then so 48,000 made a muuuch bigger difference than it does today when 5x more people vote in the Sunshine state).

-Jason "That said, it is worth noting that in the 2018 Governor's race, DeSantis beat Gillum by only 32,463 and Scott beat Nelson by a paltry 10,033" Evans

One more and I might have to adjust my religious orientation and worship at the alter of Nate Silver because that would be, ahem, a funny coincidence.

[Jeffrey]

-Jason "That said, it is worth noting that in the 2018 Governor's race, DeSantis beat Gillum by only 32,463 and Scott beat Nelson by a paltry 10,033" Evans

BINGO. IIRC, it would have also changed the outcome in Senate races.

[OldPhiKap]

Next four Dem debate dates and locations released; criteria to participate not yet determined.

Combined schedule:

Jan. 14 -- Debate #7 in Des Moines, Iowa
Feb. 3 -- Iowa Caucuses

Feb. 7 -- Debate #8 in Manchester, NH
Feb. 11 -- New Hampshire Primary

Feb. 19 -- Debate #9 in Las Vegas, NV
Feb. 22 -- Nevada Caucuses

Feb. 25 -- Debate #10 in Charleston, SC
Feb. 29 -- South Carolina Primary

March 3 -- Super Tuesday

[howardlander]

BINGO. IIRC, it would have also changed the outcome in Senate races.

And changed the result of the 2000 election, as well as basically erasing half of Trump's 2016 margin in Florida. The current polls of Trump vs Biden in Florida are pretty close ( though seeming to favor Biden slightly).

[Acymetric]

Here's another quibble: 48000 votes can be a lot in Florida, which does have a history of quite close results in Presidential elections...

2016 - Trump won by 112,911
2012 - Obama won by 74,309
2008 - Obama won by 236,450
2004 - Bush won by 380,978
2000 - Bush won by 537
1996 - Clinton won by 302,334
1992 - GHW Bush won by 100,612
1988 - GHW Bush won by 962,069

So, 48k votes would only have changed the outcome in Florida once in modern presidential times (it would have barely changed things back in 1964 too, but there were only 1.8 million folks voting in Florida back then so 48,000 made a muuuch bigger difference than it does today when 5x more people vote in the Sunshine state).

-Jason "That said, it is worth noting that in the 2018 Governor's race, DeSantis beat Gillum by only 32,463 and Scott beat Nelson by a paltry 10,033" Evans

This is kind of the same as the old "my vote doesn't count" fallacy, except multiplied by 48,000. Maybe felons by themselves don't swing the election, but now in a tight race you only have 48,000 votes to not have to worry about (or to worry about, depending on which side of the aisle you're on).

We all agree that is not an insignificant pick up for Dems, right?

[dudog84]

This is kind of the same as the old "my vote doesn't count" fallacy, except multiplied by 48,000. Maybe felons by themselves don't swing the election, but now in a tight race you only have 48,000 votes to not have to worry about (or to worry about, depending on which side of the aisle you're on).

We all agree that is not an insignificant pick up for Dems, right?

Yes, if it occurs. The State is doing everything it can to stop it.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Anyone ready to fire up the 2024 thread?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-beg...015357541.html

[CameronBlue]

Anyone ready to fire up the 2024 thread?

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-beg...015357541.html

One thing is certain, we're going to wear out some Mods.

[CameronBornAndBred]

One thing is certain, we're going to wear out some Mods.

JE might elect for early retirement.

[dudog84]

JE might elect for early retirement.

Don't you mean "If nominated, I will not run; if elected, I will not serve."? It is a political thread after all.

Though bringing up William Tecumseh Sherman to an Atlantan could get me a timeout.

[Indoor66]

Though bringing up William Tecumseh Sherman to an Atlantan could get me a timeout.

I'll be that really does burn you up.

[JasonEvans]

JE might elect for early retirement.