Whew, I'm getting whiplash from all this trade war back-and-forth. The administration announced that it would delay the next round of tariffs, originally scheduled for September 1st, until December 15th. Secretary Ross offered as the main reason, "Nobody wants to take a chance of disrupting the Christmas season."
First, not clear why they picked December 15th instead of a date after the New Year. Sure, any price increases would take some time to trickle down but why risk the market shock and uncertainty 10 days before the holidays, which could impact consumer confidence and therefore shopping?
Second, this is clearly going to continue well into 2020. Farmers will begin making Spring 2020 planting decisions in a few months and the Iowa Democratic Caucus is in February. They're going to be operating in high uncertainty with the prospect of another season of gov't direct payments. For Dem candidates seeking to shock in Iowa, there's an opportunity here to convince farmers how they can get the markets back that the Trump administration has destroyed --- not saying that Trump won't succeed in negotiating a trade deal beneficial to farmers but, if he does, I'd be shocked if it's before the Iowa caucus. Until then, US ag exports to China increased 700% from 2000 to 2017 but since Trump took office, they've been plummeted by 50%. He also backed out of TPP. If I'm a Dem candidate, I'd hit that message relentlessly.
Finally, I'm starting to see a lot of numbers floating around that suggest the cost to the average family from the tariffs has exceeded any tax savings benefit from the Trump tax plan. I have to imagine that the Dems will latch onto those stats hard, particularly if this continues to drag.
BTW, if you want to see data illustrating the power of the presidency to shape public opinion,
check out this Pew polling on perceptions of China. Can't say Trump's focus hasn't influenced a lot of people.