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  1. #61
    Cory Booker will be the nominee. He meets every tactical requirement discussed so far in this thread, and (in contrast to say, Elizabeth Warren) has a good strategic mind for politics. I don't have a prediction for VP, although I generally agree with JE's point that most candidates take the philosophy of "balancing" the ticket somehow.

  2. #62
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    Feb 2007
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    HAHAHA I also voted for Paul Tsongas in the 92 Primary. Unfortunately he died in 1997 so, had he won election to a second term, he would have died in office. I remember a friend told me he couldn’t vote for Tsongas because he sounded like Elmer Fudd.
    I momentarily confused Paul Tsongas and (senator) Paul Simon and thought abouth this SNL Sketch.

  3. #63
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    At least two major questions we’ll get answers to in ‘19 that will make it very difficult to reliably handicap the presidential race in the interim:

    1) What will a wavering economy be doing come December?
    2) Will Donald Trump still occupy the White House?

  4. #64
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
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    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Let's pretend at least one Republican does jump in to the race. When does that happen? Does that candidate wait til the summer, or even later to announce, or do they get their name in the ring at the same time as the majority of Dems?
    Whoever does decide to take that plunge is going to face a daily barrage of name calling from Trump, so which is the better strategy?

    If it were me, I'd wait as long as I possibly could. See how the economy goes, see if prognostications of an economic slowdown bear truth, and wait for the Mueller investigation draws to a close. More weapons then for the political armory.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  5. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    If it were me, I'd wait as long as I possibly could. See how the economy goes, see if prognostications of an economic slowdown bear truth, and wait for the Mueller investigation draws to a close. More weapons then for the political armory.
    IMO, there is literally nothing – yes, I mean actually literally – that the Mueller investigation could report that would cause Trump to not win a Republican primary in a huge landslide.

  6. #66
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Let's pretend at least one Republican does jump in to the race. When does that happen? Does that candidate wait til the summer, or even later to announce, or do they get their name in the ring at the same time as the majority of Dems?
    Whoever does decide to take that plunge is going to face a daily barrage of name calling from Trump, so which is the better strategy?

    If it were me, I'd wait as long as I possibly could. See how the economy goes, see if prognostications of an economic slowdown bear truth, and wait for the Mueller investigation draws to a close. More weapons then for the political armory.
    I don't know when they would announce, good question and you've raised a great strategy question too. As a practical matter, though, I assume one would at least need to form an exploratory committee, start raising money, and start laying a ground game in Iowa slash New Hampster in the next two months. So if there are rumblings of a challenge, that should be somewhat imminent.

    (Dems, for example, are currently hiring and interviewing staff; planning trips to early primary states; and floating their names amongst the donor class).
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  7. #67
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    Quote Originally Posted by gus View Post
    Anyone want to handicap whether there's a primary challenge on the republican side? Romney's op-ed seems to indicate it's not impossible.
    Anyone want to handicap the possibility that Trump won't run for re-election? There are myriad reasons why this is a real possibility.

  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    Anyone want to handicap the possibility that Trump won't run for re-election? There are myriad reasons why this is a real possibility.
    I mentioned on another thread that if he can somehow spin it as a victory ("I have accomplished everything I said I would" or some such thing) I would not be surprised at all. I don't think he enjoys the job, to be honest. Though, I do not really know who would. It's a crap job for pretty much anyone.

  9. #69
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I mentioned on another thread that if he can somehow spin it as a victory ("I have accomplished everything I said I would" or some such thing) I would not be surprised at all. I don't think he enjoys the job, to be honest. Though, I do not really know who would. It's a crap job for pretty much anyone.
    You have certainly identified one possible scenario for him to not run.

  10. #70
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I don't know when they would announce, good question and you've raised a great strategy question too. As a practical matter, though, I assume one would at least need to form an exploratory committee, start raising money, and start laying a ground game in Iowa slash New Hampster in the next two months. So if there are rumblings of a challenge, that should be somewhat imminent.

    (Dems, for example, are currently hiring and interviewing staff; planning trips to early primary states; and floating their names amongst the donor class).
    I think Romney could announce really late in the process and have no problem raising money or putting together a staff and viable ground game. Someone like Kasich or Flake would probably need a somewhat longer runway, but even then I think an early summer announcement would leave plenty of time for one of them to mount a decent challenge.

  11. #71
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    Feb 2016
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    Atlanta
    What is the over/under for declared Democratic candidates?

    I'm guessing 18.5, but that seems outlandishly and absurdly high. Republicans had 16 in 2016. Can the Democrats beat that? I think there is a real possibility it could go over 20. We live in different times, and with the moderate/progressive schism in the party, the aging party members whose place in line may have passed, and a wide open field, I think I would take the over at 18.5.

    Is there an actual line in Vegas for this?

  12. #72
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    IMO, there is literally nothing – yes, I mean actually literally – that the Mueller investigation could report that would cause Trump to not win a Republican primary in a huge landslide.
    What if he is indicted as the result of Mueller's investigation? I do think that would change some minds.

  13. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    Anyone want to handicap the possibility that Trump won't run for re-election? There are myriad reasons why this is a real possibility.
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I mentioned on another thread that if he can somehow spin it as a victory ("I have accomplished everything I said I would" or some such thing) I would not be surprised at all. I don't think he enjoys the job, to be honest. Though, I do not really know who would. It's a crap job for pretty much anyone.
    Counter-point: Per DOJ guidelines, they cannot indict a sitting president. Putting aside that it is un untested legal conclusion, it is the one generally guiding things now. The day he leaves office, though, "Individual 1"'s status as a mere unindicted co-conspirator could change. He may want to put off a return to civilian life for as long as he can. It is untested as to whether the statute of limitations would be extended by a second term, and arguably the statute of limitations for the matters for which Cohen pleaded guilty (I am told) runs in 2021 or so.

    (Note: not arguing the merits of the potential charges obviously).
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

  14. #74
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    Quote Originally Posted by howardlander View Post
    What if he is indicted as the result of Mueller's investigation? I do think that would change some minds.
    The justice department take the position, as a matter of policy, that a sitting president cannot be indicted. Some say it would be unconstitutional. A sealed indictment could be filed against Trump that could/would be unsealed once he leaves office, but we wouldn’t know about it. In essence, Trump is an unidicted co-conspirator with Michael Cohen right now. It is possible the justice department has a sealed count against Trump for that right now, but I doubt it.

    The constitutionality of indicting a sting president is unsettled law as it has never been heard by the Supreme Court (or any court for that matter). The US Justice department will not test this. So the Mueller investigation won’t produce indictments that we know about. Indeed, the Atty General will have the authority and ability to bury the results of the investigation and keep the report from congress and the American people. We may never know what is in the report.

    OTOH, the State of New York has a few investigations going right now that put the president at criminal risk. New York could, potentially, be the ones to test the indictment of a Sitting president if they find something. It is not out of the realm of possibility.

    Interesting times, indeed.

  15. #75
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    IMO, there is literally nothing – yes, I mean actually literally – that the Mueller investigation could report that would cause Trump to not win a Republican primary in a huge landslide.
    Dissent.

    We have no idea... I mean it, no clue... what evidence Mueller has at his disposal. It is entirely possible (and even likely) that Sergey Kislyak's phone was monitored at all times by US Intelligence during meetings with Jared Kushner, Jeff Sessions, Michael Flynn and others. It is fairly likely that Flynn and/or Rick Gates were wearing a wire at various times when they spoke to Trump and others after they turned State's evidence (but before that was revealed in court). We don't know what business records/emails Mueller has or is getting (pending Supreme Court decision) from Russian companies, the Trump Organization, or foreign banks.

    Look, I am not a conspiracy theorist and I strongly suspect the gleeful dreams of the liberal left when it comes to Trump's alleged crimes will never be proven (and are probably not real anyway), but I think it is at least possible Mueller will come out with some really damaging stuff .

    So, the question is does it move the needle among Trump supporters. Something like 38-42% of the country supports him. If some damaging allegations are leveled (with strong supporting evidence) by Mueller I could see that dropping to the low 30s. At that point, even though most Republicans like him, he would begin to appear unelectable... and elect-ability really matters when it comes to picking the nominee (I think it may be the single most important factor). If Trump appears doomed in 2020, you can bet that there will at least be rumblings of picking someone who has a better chance. Even if GOP voters still love him, they won't pick him if a significantly more electable candidate emerges.

    -Jason "to be clear, I am not saying I believe any of this will happen, I'm just saying the scenario is not impossible to imagine" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  16. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    What is the over/under for declared Democratic candidates?

    I'm guessing 18.5, but that seems outlandishly and absurdly high. Republicans had 16 in 2016. Can the Democrats beat that? I think there is a real possibility it could go over 20. We live in different times, and with the moderate/progressive schism in the party, the aging party members whose place in line may have passed, and a wide open field, I think I would take the over at 18.5.

    Is there an actual line in Vegas for this?
    I can't imagine there is a Vegas line. I don't think Vegas is actually allowed to take wagers on non-sporting events.

    As for how many, lets do some quick figuring.

    • Declared or already have exploratory committee (I'm not counting crackpots and others who have no shot): Warren, Castro, Rep. John Delaney, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (4)
    • Major politicians who look really, really likely to run: Beto, Biden, Booker, Brown, Bloomberg (the five Bs), Harris, Sanders, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Casey (10)
    • Lesser known politicians who have expressed some interest in running: South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg; Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard; LA Mayor Eric Garcetti; Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper; fmr. Attorney Gen. Eric Holder; Va Gov. Terry McAuliffe; Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan; CA Rep. Eric Swalwell; losing FLA/GA governor candidates Stacy Abrams and Andrew Gillum; New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu (11)
    • Celebs/Businessmen who look likely to run: Billionaire Tom Steyer; Fmr. Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz; Oprah; Angelina Jolie; George Clooney; the Rock; Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg (7)

    So, that is 32 folks and while some of them clearly won't get in (no way all those celebs get in the race) I strongly suspect we end up with something like 20 truly viable candidates. A lot of them will quickly realize they simply are not getting any traction (and any money) and drop out shortly after coming into the race, but it is going to be a very crowded field into at least the fall.

    -Jason "I am sure I missed a couple... and I bet there will be a surprise or two as well" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  17. #77
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I can't imagine there is a Vegas line. I don't think Vegas is actually allowed to take wagers on non-sporting events.

    As for how many, lets do some quick figuring.

    • Declared or already have exploratory committee (I'm not counting crackpots and others who have no shot): Warren, Castro, Rep. John Delaney, Washington Gov. Jay Inslee (4)
    • Major politicians who look really, really likely to run: Beto, Biden, Booker, Brown, Bloomberg (the five Bs), Harris, Sanders, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, Casey (10)
    • Lesser known politicians who have expressed some interest in running: South Bend mayor Pete Buttigieg; Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard; LA Mayor Eric Garcetti; Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper; fmr. Attorney Gen. Eric Holder; Va Gov. Terry McAuliffe; Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan; CA Rep. Eric Swalwell; losing FLA/GA governor candidates Stacy Abrams and Andrew Gillum; New Orleans mayor Mitch Landrieu (11)
    • Celebs/Businessmen who look likely to run: Billionaire Tom Steyer; Fmr. Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz; Oprah; Angelina Jolie; George Clooney; the Rock; Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg (7)

    So, that is 32 folks and while some of them clearly won't get in (no way all those celebs get in the race) I strongly suspect we end up with something like 20 truly viable candidates. A lot of them will quickly realize they simply are not getting any traction (and any money) and drop out shortly after coming into the race, but it is going to be a very crowded field into at least the fall.

    -Jason "I am sure I missed a couple... and I bet there will be a surprise or two as well" Evans
    So you would take the over at 18.5?

    It might be a fun poll question. We'd need to have some clarity on what constitutes a candidate.

  18. #78
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Boston, MA
    Let's make a couple of things perfectly clear:

    * There is NO WAY Trump does not run for re-election. He loves the spotlight. He loves the limelight. Stepping down would be admitting defeat and a sign of weakness. Zero chance. It will not happen.

    * There is NO WAY another GOP candidate runs against Trump for the nomination. Anyone who did would get smoked. And they know it. Trump is still wildly popular with the GOP base.

    These two things are givens to me. What are not givens is a) will Trump be impeached, b) what the Mueller report will state, c) are there any major indictments coming down and d) who the Dems will nominate.

    Personally, I hope it's not Bernie or Warren, mainly because I think they galvanize the other side too much. Would love to see Biden and Booker, or O'Rourke, or K Harris. Agree with J Evans that it will not be two white men.

    Can't believe this thing is 22 months away....

  19. #79
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    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post
    * There is NO WAY another GOP candidate runs against Trump for the nomination.
    Where does this statement fall on the Udaman confidence scale? And can you please indicate where "There is NO WAY Interstellar will make $170 million in boxoffice" fell on that scale as well?

    -Jason "we kid because we love " Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  20. #80
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    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post
    * There is NO WAY another GOP candidate runs against Trump for the nomination.
    I'll bet you a pie on that if you want, even though I know your predictive powers are quite impressive.

    If the GOP cancels the primaries, though, the bet would obviously be off. (Similarly, if Trump doesn't run, bet is off too although I think that is unlikely assuming no health issues).
    "We're only tourists in this life
    Only tourists but the view is nice"

    -- David Byrne

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