2020 Presidential Election

[OldPhiKap]

There is a lot of violence going on around the country right now and crime rates are rising.

Democrats are supporting defunding the police in many major cities.

Biden is tapped as leading the Democratic Party and this will be a major issue in his campaign.

FWIW, I think Democrats dismiss this sort of thinking/messaging at their own peril. Whether you think it's a true series of statements or not, historically this type of attack resonates with suburban and moderate voters.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I like and respect your posts but the "straight out of Fox news" comment is something I believe Jason has said is off limits(calling out networks). As for Wheat's comment about Democrats supporting defunding the police, I believe that comment would be inbounds if he had provided a link.

Here’s just one example.

New York City has almost total Democratic Party control.

They recently decided to defund their police department by $1,000,000,000, despite a substantial rise in city wide crime rates.

[SouthernDukie]

Can I just interject one thing? If it's off-limits then please feel free to delete it. I'm not trying to break any rules, I promise.

As a fellow-Floridian, I just want to say that Wheat's posts are an insight into how many, many Floridians think and feel about the upcoming Election. In that sense, he's giving you a snapshot into how a large portion of the State look at the election issues. And this is why I still insist, despite any polling to the contrary, that FL is going to be a coin-flip come Nov 3rd. I'll be shocked if either candidate wins the state by more than 2 percentage points. Absolutely shocked. Trump beat Clinton by only a little over 1%. I expect the same dynamic in November. Reject my Floridian insight at your own peril, prognosticators.

Edit: To add that OldPhilKap is exactly right - at least with many Florida voters.

[OldPhiKap]

Can I just interject one thing? If it's off-limits then please feel free to delete it. I'm not trying to break any rules, I promise.

As a fellow-Floridian, I just want to say that Wheat's posts are an insight into how many, many Floridians think and feel about the upcoming Election. In that sense, he's giving you a snapshot into how a large portion of the State think and look at the election issues. And this is why I still insist, despite any polling to the contrary, that FL is going to be a coin-flip come Nov 3rd. I'll be shocked if either candidate wins the state by more than 2 percentage points. Absolutely shocked. Trump beat Clinton by only a little over 1%. I expect the same dynamic in November. Reject my Floridian insight at your own peril, prognosticators.

What sort of new, contorted ballot system is Florida using this time around? Reverse butterfly with tear-away chads?

(I agree with this post, and FWIW it seems in-bounds to me. That view is not limited to Florida, either).

[SouthernDukie]

What sort of new, contorted ballot system is Florida using this time around? Reverse butterfly with tear-away chads?

(I agree with this post, and FWIW it seems in-bounds to me).

Lord only knows what we will be presented with come November.

[OldPhiKap]

Lord only knows what we will be presented with come November.

Other than the recount and the lawsuits, you mean?


;-)

[dudog84]

Here’s just one example.

New York City has almost total Democratic Party control.

They recently decided to defund their police department by $1,000,000,000, despite a substantial rise in city wide crime rates.

Some perspective, PLEASE. That's less than 10% of their budget. How is that unreasonable in these times? Everyone is taking a hit. Even Coach K.

That's the problem some have with your posts. They are ill-informed or deliberately lobbed into the crowd to incite angry replies.

https://cbcny.org/research/seven-fac...ut-nypd-budget

[Bostondevil]

The monument stance and general "us vs them"/culture wars are losing propositions to Trump based on polls. However, the increase in murders/violence recently in cities, including children getting murdered on the streets in several cities this weekend, and stories written about how its related to less trust in police/unrest after George Floyd could actually be an area that wins Trump's some votes among suburban white voters who see police as important to establishing law and order, and view Democrats taking anti-police policy stances. Of course, this isn't new but there's been a marked increase in violence and having those sorts of stories be more at the forefront ironically could help Trump.

CNN, which is typically very anti-Trump/pro-protestors and writes stories as evidence to those narratives, has this piece:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/01/us/ho...ies/index.html
"Police blame the surge in gun violence on a combination of the early release of people from jail during the pandemic, the effects of a new state's bail reform law and other factors."


"More people not in jail," NYPD Chief of Department Terence Monahan told CNN. "Rikers Island (jail) in New York is empty. Between Covid, between bail reform, the protests caused animosity towards the police, which took us out of neighborhoods that needed us the most."
Earlier this month, the NYPD disbanded its anti-crime unit, roughly 600 plainclothes officers whose aggressive tactics in fighting violent crime were often met with controversy."

Not like I expect Trump suddenly to improve by 10 points in the polls, but I see this as an issue that he should focus on more than the things he currently is if he's actually trying to bring new people to his side. At least, it's a narrative that could get some play.

Definitely true, but the Democrats could frame the response according to the views of some voters, suburban or otherwise, that police response to facing reform is to stop doing their jobs. "Violence has increased because the police don't want to do their jobs unless they get to have everything their way. Let's make public safety and not overtime pay the priority of the police." There are a lot of police officers talking about holding back, on record. It wouldn't be a particularly hard response to gear up.

[jv001]

Here’s just one example.

New York City has almost total Democratic Party control.

They recently decided to defund their police department by $1,000,000,000, despite a substantial rise in city wide crime rates.

Good link and yes the NY mayor is a Democrat. After a huge defunding, many still were not satisfied.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Here’s just one example.

New York City has almost total Democratic Party control.

They recently decided to defund their police department by $1,000,000,000, despite a substantial rise in city wide crime rates.

I appreciate the more detailed follow-up but if you read what I and many others wrote, you would recognize that "defund their police department," is a loaded term, even though it is very clear in this instance what it means. "Cut" would be a much better choice of words. And also acknowledge that a major part of the reason for this "cut" is that the city is running a huge deficit so is making vast cuts across the board (I am a New York City resident). Like almost every other city and state. Nuance is key here...

Sorry if I am testing the limits here. As a Duke public policy major, I like to think of this board as almost an extension of a public policy seminar. Professors would not allow for partisan comments, particularly if not really well defended. And if someone made a comment that mis-used a term or needed further explanation, a professor would call them out on it, in a professorial, respectful way.

[Steven43]

Can I just interject one thing? If it's off-limits then please feel free to delete it. I'm not trying to break any rules, I promise.

As a fellow-Floridian, I just want to say that Wheat's posts are an insight into how many, many Floridians think and feel about the upcoming Election. In that sense, he's giving you a snapshot into how a large portion of the State look at the election issues. And this is why I still insist, despite any polling to the contrary, that FL is going to be a coin-flip come Nov 3rd. I'll be shocked if either candidate wins the state by more than 2 percentage points. Absolutely shocked. Trump beat Clinton by only a little over 1%. I expect the same dynamic in November. Reject my Floridian insight at your own peril, prognosticators.

Edit: To add that OldPhilKap is exactly right - at least with many Florida voters.

I think it’s unbelievably presumptuous for you and Wheat to continue to propagate this self-proclaimed idea that you are somehow accurate spokespersons for and representatives of the political views of millions of Floridians. Says who, you and Wheat???

Please stop making this silly claim. It has gotten extremely old. Should every DBR poster start making such claims about massive portions of the electorate in the respective state in which they live? The two of you just need to stop this, period.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I wish more conservative minded people would post, I know you’re out there.

Violence in this country is a major concern, and will be one of the deciding issues in this election.

Just look at gun sales statistics, people understand the police just might not be there to protect them and are looking to protect themselves.

The Democratic Party is viewed as not being overly concerned by many voters.

[tbyers11]

Can I just interject one thing? If it's off-limits then please feel free to delete it. I'm not trying to break any rules, I promise.

As a fellow-Floridian, I just want to say that Wheat's posts are an insight into how many, many Floridians think and feel about the upcoming Election. In that sense, he's giving you a snapshot into how a large portion of the State look at the election issues. And this is why I still insist, despite any polling to the contrary, that FL is going to be a coin-flip come Nov 3rd. I'll be shocked if either candidate wins the state by more than 2 percentage points. Absolutely shocked. Trump beat Clinton by only a little over 1%. I expect the same dynamic in November. Reject my Floridian insight at your own peril, prognosticators.

Edit: To add that OldPhilKap is exactly right - at least with many Florida voters.

I am also a Floridian and I can state that this is the exact opposite of how many Floridians that I know feel about the election. I would prefer to keep this thread tailored to how issues affect polls and the polls themselves rather than anecdotal observations.

[dudog84]

Good link and yes the NY mayor is a Democrat. After a huge defunding, many still were not satisfied.

What some call defunding, others call responsible budget management. I understand we're not used to seeing that in government, so it can be shocking. Though I understand many government entities other than federal (who get to print money) have balanced budget laws.

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I appreciate the more detailed follow-up but if you read what I and many others wrote, you would recognize that "defund their police department," is a loaded term, even though it is very clear in this instance what it means. "Cut" would be a much better choice of words. And also acknowledge that a major part of the reason for this "cut" is that the city is running a huge deficit so is making vast cuts across the board (I am a New York City resident). Like almost every other city and state. Nuance is key here...

Sorry if I am testing the limits here. As a Duke public policy major, I like to think of this board as almost an extension of a public policy seminar. Professors would not allow for partisan comments, particularly if not really well defended. And if someone made a comment that mis-used a term or needed further explanation, a professor would call them out on it, in a professorial, respectful way.

Why would you “cut” funds when crime rates are rising, and fast?

The number one thing governments are responsible for is the protection of its people, right?

[Wheat/"/"/"]

I think it’s unbelievably presumptuous for you and Wheat to continue to propagate this self-proclaimed idea that you are somehow accurate spokespersons for and representatives of the political views of millions of Floridians. Says who, you and Wheat???

Please stop making this silly claim. It has gotten extremely old. Should every DBR poster start making such claims about massive portions of the electorate in the respective state in which they live? The two of you just need to stop this, period.

I am only stating my personal opinions here, like everybody else.

I’ve never positioned myself as some sort of spokesperson for Floridians.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Why would you “cut” funds when crime rates are rising, and fast?

The number one thing governments are responsible for is the protection of its people, right?

This is the whole point. "Defund the Police" doesn't mean "eliminate police." It means "reappropriation of police funds to address underlying causes."

Do you believe the only way to decrease crime is to have more police with better weapons? If so, you are voicing your position properly. But, if you think perhaps having police enforce laws is a good thing, but money towards mental health, financial assistance for desperate people, addiction programs, etc... would reduce the impetus behind the crime and reduce the need for police, then take a longer look at "Defund the Police."

Seriously, whoever named that policy needs to get a new job.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Why would you “cut” funds when crime rates are rising, and fast?

The number one thing governments are responsible for is the protection of its people, right?

Because New York City has a $9 billion deficit. They have to cut everywhere. One could definitely argue that too high of a percentage of the cuts came from police. And one could argue the legitimacy of the $9 billion number, though it is agreed on by all that there is a huge deficit. So everything had to get cut.

[Steven43]

I am also a Floridian and I can state that this is the exact opposite of how many Floridians that I know feel about the election. I would prefer to keep this thread tailored to how issues affect polls and the polls themselves rather than anecdotal observations.

Thank you!! My gosh, this “I have my pulse on a huge portion of the Floridian electorate” thing that is continually spouted by two particular DBR posters has reached absurd levels,

[PackMan97]

I do not think it is at all out of bounds to say "crime and safety" will be a major issue during this campaign. It is certainly going to be a very big issue and perhaps that only one in recent days that resonates with folks besides Trump's base.

I think Wheat///'s position is that Democrat's are taking an analogous stance to Trump's COVID-19 testing strategy. "The more police we have, the more crime we find. So stop with all the police." As a CAMPAIGN FRIENDLY SLOGAN, "defund the police" is perhaps the worst slogan you could think of. It is ripe for political attack and ridicule regardless of the merits and good intent are behind the movement.