When will the D nominee be almost certain?
Good news for Trump.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/polit...b1N?li=BBnb7KzA new poll shows support for the impeachment of President Trump has declined since public hearings have started. The Emerson poll released Thursday found support for impeachment has dropped from 48% to 43% since October, while opposition to impeachment has risen from 44% to 45%.
Independents are key in the shift, with 49% opposing impeachment and only 34% supporting impeachment. In October, 48% of independents supported impeachment and 39% opposed.
The poll also showed Trump's approval rating rising to a net positive. Forty-eight percent approved of the president while 47% disapproved. His approval rating was only 43% a month ago.
Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."
When will the D nominee be almost certain?
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Emerson is a good pollster, 538 gives them an A- rating, but it really looks like that poll is a outlier. It has Trump approval ahead of disapproval which is waaay out of line with pretty much every other approval poll out there. I mean, even GOP-friendly Rasmussen has Trump underwater on approval at 46-53 (-7). An ARG poll also released yesterday and also polling 1000+ people from Nov 17-20 (ARG gets a solid B rating from 538) puts Trump's approval at a dismal 61-36 (-25).
I strongly suspect Trump is not 25-points underwater on approval and I strongly suspect he is not +1 either. The 538 average of dozens of approval polls has him at 41.8-53.6 (-12) which seems a lot more useful than making a big deal out of +1 or -25. We would need to see more polls showing the same thing to treat either of those polls as anything other than an outlier.
-Jason "Emerson also did one-on-one matchups with all the Dem contenders that found Trump beating Biden in the popular vote... which is also out of line with anything else we have seen" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
If I had any clue as to the answer to your question I would be in Vegas right now making billions. No one has any clue as to the timing of the nomination and we won't have any clue until the field is narrowed down. Super Tuesday will likely have a big impact on things. With this many candidates it is impossible to tell which states will be close. The specifics of the delegate allocations, particularly for some of the earlier states which will have larger fields, could be interesting. This Ballotopedia article I found on Google has some interesting insights on the process. It looks like about 1/3 of the delegates are chosen by Super Tuesday and 2/3 by the end of March.
https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2020
yeah, who knows. But I feel compelled to point out the irony that this whole impeachment fistouche centers on Trump looking to get dirt on a guy who may well not even be the nominee, whose prospects seem to be foundering.
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."
My old employer had hundreds of thousands of employees, and its own culture (truly)...part of that culture was a particular vocabulary...fistouche was a commonly used word, though perhaps it's spelled wrong or doesn't even exist elsewhere.
But when you described a major dustup or mess, everyone knew it was a fistouche.
Kind of like the Sopranos vocabulary, perhaps...there is no gobbagool for example (but there is capicola)...same for gumar...
So why did you ask the question? Or if you thought you had a good driver towards the answer to your question, why didn't you include it with your original question?
For the benefit of the rest of the readers of this thread, here is an article describing what Jeffrey has mentioned:
https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-11-1028711471
And for those who are less financially saavy, a put essentially a bet that a stock or stock index will decline. Ray Dalio is the founder of Bridgewater Associates, arguably the world's largest hedge fund.
I ask similar questions to non-financial people all the time to get a different perspective on the matter. For example, my wife has different, and sometimes better, insight on retail than many retail analysts (no disrespect intended, since you might be an analyst).
Dalio is human and sometimes makes bad wagers. He also denied this wager has anything to do with the D nomination decision. I don’t believe that!
There are no-winner-take-all states in the Democratic race. All delegates are awarded proportionally to any candidate who gets more than 15% in a district or state-wide. As a result, it is entirely possible that even if there is a clear front-runner, that person may not get enough delegates to win on the first ballot if we see 3 or more candidates still in the running through the end of March.
Take this scenario-- Buttigieg is consistently winning 40% of the vote, Warren is getting 25%, and Sanders and Klobuchar/Biden are each getting about 15% through the end of March. If Sanders or someone else decided to stick around through the convention and Buttigieg (or whoever is leading) is winning states 60-40 or 70-30, it is almost certain the front-runner won't have enough delegates to win on the first ballot. It could be a mess**
-Jason "**- could be, but I suspect it won't be as there would be a clear choice made by the voters and I am all but certain the convention would make that person the nominee on the second ballot" Evans
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?