NFL draft conversation (with lots of Daniel Jones stuff)

[Acymetric]

Great summary. Except for uncertainty at QB, I’m optimistic next years team will be solid and improved at several positions. 8 wins again?

Hard to say...8 wins will be tough. Over-under would probably be 5-6. Only 4 wins isn't out of the question. 10 wins is probably the absolute ceiling. Given the tough schedule and QB situation, 7-6 (win in the bowl game) would be a solid season.

Alabama (neutral field) - L
NC A&T - W
Middle Tennessee - W
Notre Dame - L
Georgia Tech - Toss-up
Miami - Toss-up
Pitt - Toss-up
Syracuse - Toss-up (skews towards L)
unc - Toss-up
UVA - Toss-up
VT - Toss-up
Wake - Toss-up

I see 2 should wins (if we lose to Middle Tennessee or A&T we are in for a bad ride), and 2 highly likely losses ('Bama and Notre Dame). The other 8 could go either way, and with so much coaching turnover it is hard to project how things will go. Syracuse was good this year, Pitt always seems to have our number, Wake demolished us somehow, UVA and VT are in solid shape. Miami has a new coach and some talent, GT and unc under new coaches are total question marks.

[budwom]

Hard to say...8 wins will be tough. Over-under would probably be 5-6. Only 4 wins isn't out of the question. 10 wins is probably the absolute ceiling. Given the tough schedule and QB situation, 7-6 (win in the bowl game) would be a solid season.

Alabama (neutral field) - L
NC A&T - W
Middle Tennessee - W
Notre Dame - L
Georgia Tech - Toss-up
Miami - Toss-up
Pitt - Toss-up
Syracuse - Toss-up (skews towards L)
unc - Toss-up
UVA - Toss-up
VT - Toss-up
Wake - Toss-up

I see 2 should wins (if we lose to Middle Tennessee or A&T we are in for a bad ride), and 2 highly likely losses ('Bama and Notre Dame). The other 8 could go either way, and with so much coaching turnover it is hard to project how things will go. Syracuse was good this year, Pitt always seems to have our number, Wake demolished us somehow, UVA and VT are in solid shape. Miami has a new coach and some talent, GT and unc under new coaches are total question marks.

Wow. I'm as dedicated a Duke football fan as there is, but there is no way on this earth that we can look at VT and VA games as tossups (nor Syracuse). The Virginia schools both manhandled us this year, plain and simple.
We're looking to be 2-2 OOC, and I just don't see how, with a new QB, we exceed the three ACC wins we got this year. I sure hope for more, but I'm pretty confident we'll have an over/under on wins next year of 4.5 or so...

[Acymetric]

Wow. I'm as dedicated a Duke football fan as there is, but there is no way on this earth that we can look at VT and VA games as tossups (nor Syracuse). The Virginia schools both manhandled us this year, plain and simple.
We're looking to be 2-2 OOC, and I just don't see how, with a new QB, we exceed the three ACC wins we got this year. I sure hope for more, but I'm pretty confident we'll have an over/under on wins next year of 4.5 or so...

I probably shouldn't have used the word toss-up. I don't mean they are 50/50 games, just that they are games that could plausibly be won by either team. VT, UVA, and Syracuse would be favored, but I'm not sure they would be heavily favored, such that it would be a huge upset if we won. I'm not sure what word to sure what word to use for that, and I didn't want to try to assign percentages to each game. Maybe read my "toss-ups" as no more than a 70/30 one way or the other or something (I didn't think to hard about that cutoff). I wouldn't be surprised to see 4.5 be the actual line, but I think it is just a bit too low with 2 sure wins and 8 other winnable games (including games where we wouldn't be favored but would have a chance). Maybe I should have gone with "winnable" (which is different from should-win or 50/50).

[OldPhiKap]

Our conference games include four that we lost to this year; three with new coaches so who knows; and Syracuse who we did not play.

I'm an optimistic guy, but going 4-4 in conference is gonna be tough and 5-3 would be exceptional. Nothing against our returning players, but we all knew that both the 2018 and 2019 seasons were going to be bears schedule-wise. With Alabama and Notre Dame taking two of the four non-conference games, we have little margin for error. (What were we this year, 3-5 in conference?)

[arnie]

Our conference games include four that we lost to this year; three with new coaches so who knows; and Syracuse who we did not play.

I'm an optimistic guy, but going 4-4 in conference is gonna be tough and 5-3 would be exceptional. Nothing against our returning players, but we all knew that both the 2018 and 2019 seasons were going to be bears schedule-wise. With Alabama and Notre Dame taking two of the four non-conference games, we have little margin for error. (What were we this year, 3-5 in conference?)

Optimistic me (this next year anyway) sees min 4 ACC wins - since we always beat Cheats, GaT and WF��. Then throw in one more and we’re at the minimum. Add another 50-50 ACC game (or another miracle against ND) and we should be at 7 regular season wins plus the guaranteed bowl win.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Optimistic me (this next year anyway) sees min 4 ACC wins - since we always beat Cheats, GaT and WF��. Then throw in one more and we’re at the minimum. Add another 50-50 ACC game (or another miracle against ND) and we should be at 7 regular season wins plus the guaranteed bowl win.

HAH, there is no optimistic me vis a vis Duke FB...although Cut keeps me moving in that direction....and as for Daniel Jones and the draft: I saw a report today that indicates there's not a huge market demand for QBs at the moment (relatively)...because so many talented players have entered in recent years. And of course, very likely that Joe Flacco and Nick Foles are moving to 2 of the teams looking with starting gigs. Then there's the issue of not many QBs coming out this year...so supply is low as well.

Maybe we need a degenerates contest for DJ's draft position...

[fuse]

DVR cleanup today.
Finally deleting the Duke Notre Dame game.

Pretty amazing to see Daniel Jones among many others playing a brilliant game 3 years ago. Thankful for what this class did for Duke football.

[Wander]

Wow. I'm as dedicated a Duke football fan as there is, but there is no way on this earth that we can look at VT and VA games as tossups (nor Syracuse). The Virginia schools both manhandled us this year, plain and simple.

IMO you are putting too much stock in those individual game results (which, yes, were terrible). Sagarain has for last season:

43 UVA
49 Duke
64 VT

We finished 3-5 in the ACC, they each finished 4-4, but they had worse non-conference results. Putting those two games into the middle category seems fair to me (even if it's not exactly 50/50... I agree we shouldn't be favored in either game as of now).

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Since Jones entered the NFL draft, Haskins and Murray have jumped in. So with those two, and Drew Lock, is Jones now 4th QB "on the big board?" With Nick Foles and Joe Flacco being available, and the Dolphins say they will not address QB this draft...wonder where this is headed.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Since Jones entered the NFL draft, Haskins and Murray have jumped in. So with those two, and Drew Lock, is Jones now 4th QB "on the big board?" With Nick Foles and Joe Flacco being available, and the Dolphins say they will not address QB this draft...wonder where this is headed.

And that right there is why DJ is better going this year. Regardless of where he lands, it will be higher up than in 2020. The Fins and everyone else know that next year is gonna be stacked. Jones is gettin' while the gettin' is good.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

And that right there is why DJ is better going this year. Regardless of where he lands, it will be higher up than in 2020. The Fins and everyone else know that next year is gonna be stacked. Jones is gettin' while the gettin' is good.

I think Jones had to go, but I don't think your logic is necessarily 100% on the money. If he's picked 4th QB this year, say early second round...pick 38...there's no guarantee that he would do better than next season, when the 12th QB might go early second round. There are not the same amount of QBs picked per round. If he's late first/early second round talent, then that's what he is, period. (just a guess).

There is also the fact that another year with Cut might raise his stock anyway. Again, given what he knew at the time, I think the decision was a no brainer....but there are still a lot of variables, some of which will never be answered, as to ultimately what was his best course. That's life....for all of us.

[CameronBornAndBred]

I don't think your logic is necessarily 100% on the money.

You been talking to my girlfriend?

[dudog84]

Since Jones entered the NFL draft, Haskins and Murray have jumped in. So with those two, and Drew Lock, is Jones now 4th QB "on the big board?" With Nick Foles and Joe Flacco being available, and the Dolphins say they will not address QB this draft...wonder where this is headed.

I don't believe anything any team says before the draft...and little of what they say after. It's all misdirection, and then whoever they get is the guy they always wanted.

Saw this the other day on MSN's front page, don't know who this guy is or his credibility (there are probably dozens of mock drafts on the internet), but he has Jones going 13th...to the Dolphins.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl...nba9I#image=13

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I don't believe anything any team says before the draft...and little of what they say after. It's all misdirection, and then whoever they get is the guy they always wanted.

Saw this the other day on MSN's front page, don't know who this guy is or his credibility (there are probably dozens of mock drafts on the internet), but he has Jones going 13th...to the Dolphins.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl...nba9I#image=13

Could be the Dolphins are playing a little psy ops game...and will take a QB. To me, 13th is high for DJ, but man, if he can get it, more power to him. I think Giles Harris will ultimately be the better pro....

[nmduke2001]

Mel Kiper still has DJ going in the first round. He thinks if he is still around, the Patriots pick him up to replace Brady.

http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=25784677

[CameronBornAndBred]

Mel Kiper still has DJ going in the first round. He thinks if he is still around, the Patriots pick him up to replace Brady.

http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=25784677

Poor feller...

[budwom]

Poor feller...

That would be wonderful for Jones, but I couldn't possibly be any more skeptical of this prediction, I guess we'll see. Always willing to eat crow.
(Brady is not exactly known for wanting to nurture would be successors, so best of luck to Daniel should this actually occur).

[CameronBornAndBred]

That would be wonderful for Jones, but I couldn't possibly be any more skeptical of this prediction, I guess we'll see. Always willing to eat crow.
(Brady is not exactly known for wanting to nurture would be successors, so best of luck to Daniel should this actually occur).

I was more thinking of fans' reaction if he isn't stellar. Kinda like the poor bastard that will fill K's shoes one day. Both of those pairs of shoes are so big that Lincoln's statue in DC could wear them.

[nmduke2001]

I was more thinking of fans' reaction if he isn't stellar. Kinda like the poor bastard that will fill K's shoes one day. Both of those pairs of shoes are so big that Lincoln's statue in DC could wear them.

I don't know. If I remember correctly, a few years ago when Brady and Belichick were having a bit of a falling out, people close to Belichick were saying that Belichick would love to prove that he's the real reason they won. Maybe Belichick works harder <cough>cheats more<cough> and it becomes a perfect time to come to New England.

http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/20...l_belichi.html

[budwom]

I was more thinking of fans' reaction if he isn't stellar. Kinda like the poor bastard that will fill K's shoes one day. Both of those pairs of shoes are so big that Lincoln's statue in DC could wear them.

yup, it's complicated...Brady thinks he can play five more years (what with the avocado rubs and yogurt injections); he made Garppolo's life miserable for daring to be a QB in waiting...no one knows how this will play out, might Belichick leave when Brady does, who knows? Bob Kraft was evidently tongue tied when trying to answer questions about Brady's next contract.

Among other things, Belichick's utter lack of sentimentality has made the Pats what they are...a guy loses a step, he's gone, no matter how many great years he gave the organization...ruthlessly efficient in that regard.
But a big question looms as to how much of a contract they want to give Brady...