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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Location
    Atlanta
    Quote Originally Posted by NSDukeFan View Post
    And imagine if he rested the guys with tired legs.
    If only we could recruit more 4 year players...

  2. #22

    Princeton

    dRtg: 0.67 (adjusted that's 0.68, our fifth straight game with an adjusted dRating under 0.8)
    eFG%: 36.9% (another great performance for a team ranked 5th-best in the country in opposing eFG%)
    3pt%: 27.3% (very good)
    2pt%: 32.1% (fabulous)
    %threes: 54.1% (this is a big number, but if they shoot 27%, it's cool)
    FT rate: 9.8% (3rd game this season under 10% and 6th game under 17%)
    DR%: 81.4% (best DR% of the season)
    TO%: 25.4% (fifth straight game over 25%)
    a/to: 0.68:1
    %assisted: 72.2%
    fast break pts: 4 fb pts for 8.0%
    block%: 23.0%; 50.0% of 2-point shots (yes, we blocked half of our opponents' two-point attempts, 2nd time this season this has happened for the 2nd-best shotblocking team in the nation)
    steal%: 16.0% (another great performance for the best stealing team in the country)


    This team is playing defense at a very high level right now.

  3. #23
    According to KenPom, Dukeís D is ahead of Virginiaís right now. Thatís pretty crazy.

  4. #24
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Washington, D.C.

    Yep

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    According to KenPom, Dukeís D is ahead of Virginiaís right now. Thatís pretty crazy.
    Never thought I'd see that again.

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    According to KenPom, Dukeís D is ahead of Virginiaís right now. Thatís pretty crazy.
    And wouldn't you know (I sure didn't) that Texas Tech's defense is number one, in case anyone is expecting an easy game tomorrow.

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    According to KenPom this AM, the difference in adjusted efficiency between #1 Duke at +31.36 and #2 Virginia at +26.25, is greater than the difference between Virginia and #13 Wisconsin (+21.73).
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  7. #27

    Texas Tech

    dRtg: 0.71 (adjusted that's 0.66, our sixth straight game with an adjusted dRating under 0.8, an amazing number against a top 10 team)
    eFG%: 43.0% (another strong performance for a team ranked 6th-best in the country in opposing eFG%)
    3pt%: 31.3%
    2pt%: 41.5%
    %threes: 28.1%
    FT rate: 22.8%
    DR%: 81.3% (2nd game in a row grabbing 80%+ of defensive rebound opportunties)
    TO%: 29.4% (sixth straight game over 25%)
    a/to: 0.38:1 (this is kind of amazing too)
    %assisted: 40.9%
    fast break pts: 3 fb pts for 5.2% (for a game with 80+ possessions, hard to imagine only giving up 3 fast break points -- the team really got back on D)
    block%: 12.3%; 17.1% of 2-point shots (another block party for the 2nd-best shotblocking team in the nation)
    steal%: 18.4% (yet another great performance for the best stealing team in the country)


    This might have been our best defensive effort of the season, and that's saying something. According to KenPom, our adjusted season defense is better than both Virginia's and Michigan's. Wow.

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    I know others have noted it but I just wanted to say that we have now held 5 consecutive opponents under 60 total points. We appear to have turned into a defensive juggernaut.

    -Jason "we just beat a top ten team by double digits in a game where we could not throw the ball in the ocean from the beach... I shudder to think what happens when we hit even 1/3rd of our threes" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Apr 2011
    Location
    Winston-Salem
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I shudder to think what happens when we hit even 1/3rd of our threes" Evans
    Or take someone's advice and finally decide to play zone . . . .
    "Amazing what a minute can do."

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Feb 2016
    Location
    Atlanta
    Bump...

    Anxiously awaiting Kedsyís update!

    Iím sure Iím not the only one who really appreciates the work put in!

  11. #31

    Clemson

    Quote Originally Posted by BandAlum83 View Post
    Bump...

    Anxiously awaiting Kedsyís update!

    Iím sure Iím not the only one who really appreciates the work put in!
    dRtg: 0.88 (adjusted that's 0.81, breaking our six game streak with an adjusted dRating under 0.8, but only barely)
    eFG%: 47.6% (3rd-worst opposing eFG% of the season after Gonzaga (60.0%) and Army (59.0%); but if 47.6% is one of your worst performances, you're pretty good)
    3pt%: 40.0% (high, but fortunately on not that many shots)
    2pt%: 43.8%
    %threes: 23.8% (if you're going to give up 40%, you have to keep them off the line, and we did)
    FT rate: 19.0%
    DR%: 75.7% (4th straight strong defensive rebounding performance)
    TO%: 23.3% (seventh straight game over 23%)
    a/to: 0.78:1 (seventh straight game under 0.8:1)
    %assisted: 51.9%
    fast break pts: 9 fb pts for 13.2% (seventh straight game under 16%)
    block%: 9.5%; 12.5% of 2-point shots (doesn't count Zion's mind-altering goaltend)
    steal%: 16.8% (yet another strong performance)

    For the season (unadjusted), Duke ranks #1 nationally in steal%; #2 in block%; and #6 (tied) in opposing eFG%. This is wow territory, so sit back and enjoy it.

    Our adjusted dEff for the game (0.81), if season-long, would be the best in the country. But we were really way better than that. Before K inserted Jordan Goldwire with 8:48 to go in the game, and Antonio Vrankovic 24 seconds later, our unadjusted efficiency for the first 31+ was 0.75, which is 0.68 adjusted (for the season, the #1 defensive team is at 0.83 adjusted). If we had kept that up the whole game, it would have been our fifth game out of the last six with an adjusted dEff under 0.7 and our seventh straight game under 0.8. Which is truly amazing.

  12. #32
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Cincinnati, Ohio

    TO Percentage

    I got curious about how much our opponents turnover percentage was being impacted by our better defensive performance. So I dug into the numbers and did a comparison of before and after the Gonzaga game and turned up something that's interesting - don't know if it's significant, but I am happy to see it.

    In our games up through Gonzaga, our opponents' turnover percentage was (on average) 1.1% better than their average for all their games. As an example, Army's current TO% for all games is 16.7%, while in the Duke game they ended up at 12.8%. So they were 3.9% better against Duke than against all their opponents.

    In our games after Gonzaga, our opponents' turnover percentage is (on average) 7.7% worse than in all their games combined. For example, Texas Tech's TO% for all games is 19.3%, but in their game against us it was 29.3%, so they were 10% worse than average when they played us.

    Also since Gonzaga, ALL our opponents have had a higher turnover percentage against us than their season average. Prior to Gonzaga, some were better, some were worse.

    So for whatever it's worth, we do seem to be making it harder for teams to hang onto the ball.

  13. #33

    Wake Forest

    dRtg: 0.87 (adjusted that's 0.85, bringing our season adjusted dEff up to #2 in the country)
    eFG%: 36.9% (nice)
    3pt%: 22.2% (ditto)
    2pt%: 38.3% (ditto again)
    %threes: 27.7% (strong)
    FT rate: 43.1% (high, but Wake is one of the best foul-drawing teams in the country)
    DR%: 60.4% (a defensive rebounding clunker after four straight strong performances in this category)
    TO%: 21.4% (eighth straight game over 20%)
    a/to: 0.38:1 (eighth straight game under 0.8:1)
    %assisted: 27.3% (absurdly low, though I'm not sure if the credit for that should go to Duke or Wake)
    fast break pts: 9 fb pts for 13.8% (eighth straight game under 16%)
    block%: 20.0%; 27.7% of 2-point shots (amazingly, this is only our fourth-best block party of the year, percentagewise)
    steal%: 9.4% (only so-so, compared to our season steals performance)

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    block%: 20.0%; 27.7% of 2-point shots (amazingly, this is only our fourth-best block party of the year, percentagewise)
    Is it possible to calculate the block percentage on shots taken with 4 feet of Jack White, cause it felt like that was 100% last night
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  15. #35
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New Jersey
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    dRtg: 0.87 (adjusted that's 0.85, bringing our season adjusted dEff up to #2 in the country)
    eFG%: 36.9% (nice)
    3pt%: 22.2% (ditto)
    2pt%: 38.3% (ditto again)
    %threes: 27.7% (strong)
    FT rate: 43.1% (high, but Wake is one of the best foul-drawing teams in the country)
    DR%: 60.4% (a defensive rebounding clunker after four straight strong performances in this category)
    TO%: 21.4% (eighth straight game over 20%)
    a/to: 0.38:1 (eighth straight game under 0.8:1)
    %assisted: 27.3% (absurdly low, though I'm not sure if the credit for that should go to Duke or Wake)
    fast break pts: 9 fb pts for 13.8% (eighth straight game under 16%)
    block%: 20.0%; 27.7% of 2-point shots (amazingly, this is only our fourth-best block party of the year, percentagewise)
    steal%: 9.4% (only so-so, compared to our season steals performance)
    Kedsy, first of all, the fact that you provide this after every game is wonderful, especially with your commentary. This is great stuff.

    Second, if the mods deem it appropriate, I petition that this thread be put up at the top with a Sticky along with the Plus Minus Report.

    Third, at the top of that Sticky I would love to see a glossary that explains what each row means and, perhaps, a range of where we'd ideally want to be for each category.
    Rich
    "Failure is Not a Destination"
    Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Nashville
    Quote Originally Posted by Rich View Post
    Kedsy, first of all, the fact that you provide this after every game is wonderful, especially with your commentary. This is great stuff.

    Second, if the mods deem it appropriate, I petition that this thread be put up at the top with a Sticky along with the Plus Minus Report.

    Third, at the top of that Sticky I would love to see a glossary that explains what each row means and, perhaps, a range of where we'd ideally want to be for each category.
    Excellent idea. And yes, thank you Kedsy. I have to spread sporks around, but i always very much appreciate these updates.

    For anyone who wants more context for these numbers, Bart Torvik has a KenPom-esque site that shows rebounding rates, turnover percentage, etc. and includes a national rank number. If you don't have a KenPom subscription, this is the next best thing (or, even if you're like me and you do have a KenPom subscription, his site is still really cool).
    Who needs a moral victory when you can have a real one?

  17. #37
    Quote Originally Posted by Rich View Post
    Kedsy, first of all, the fact that you provide this after every game is wonderful, especially with your commentary. This is great stuff.

    Second, if the mods deem it appropriate, I petition that this thread be put up at the top with a Sticky along with the Plus Minus Report.

    Third, at the top of that Sticky I would love to see a glossary that explains what each row means and, perhaps, a range of where we'd ideally want to be for each category.
    Earlier this season, I created this Duke-centric thread to explain and contextualize the various advanced stats (both offense and defense). Hopefully this can serve as the glossary you seek.

  18. #38

    Florida State

    dRtg: 1.08 (adjusted that's 0.99, not great but I guess acceptable)
    eFG%: 46.8% (ditto)
    3pt%: 32.0%
    2pt%: 45.9% (not great, but not bad, considering they had 10 dunks)
    %threes: 40.3% (we let them take a lot of threes; lucky they didn't hit so many)
    FT rate: 38.7% (pretty high but not too horrible)
    DR%: 52.8% (our worst defensive rebounding performance of the season, by a lot)
    TO%: 23.5% (ninth straight game over 20%)
    a/to: 0.94:1 (broke an eight game streak under 0.8:1)
    %assisted: 64.0%
    fast break pts: 4 fb pts for 5.1% (ninth straight game under 16%)
    block%: 4.8%; 8.1% of 2-point shots (not great, but it's hard to block dunks)
    steal%: 9.7% (second straight only so-so game, compared to our season steals performance)

    Biggest defensive issue was we couldn't grab a defensive rebound (though we can't blame Marques this time, he led the team with 4 d-boards), though I guess allowing 10 dunks could count as a problem, or it would have if we hadn't held them to 25.9% on non-dunk two-pointers.

  19. #39
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    dRtg: 1.08 (adjusted that's 0.99, not great but I guess acceptable)
    eFG%: 46.8% (ditto)
    3pt%: 32.0%
    2pt%: 45.9% (not great, but not bad, considering they had 10 dunks)
    %threes: 40.3% (we let them take a lot of threes; lucky they didn't hit so many)
    FT rate: 38.7% (pretty high but not too horrible)
    DR%: 52.8% (our worst defensive rebounding performance of the season, by a lot)
    TO%: 23.5% (ninth straight game over 20%)
    a/to: 0.94:1 (broke an eight game streak under 0.8:1)
    %assisted: 64.0%
    fast break pts: 4 fb pts for 5.1% (ninth straight game under 16%)
    block%: 4.8%; 8.1% of 2-point shots (not great, but it's hard to block dunks)
    steal%: 9.7% (second straight only so-so game, compared to our season steals performance)

    Biggest defensive issue was we couldn't grab a defensive rebound (though we can't blame Marques this time, he led the team with 4 d-boards), though I guess allowing 10 dunks could count as a problem, or it would have if we hadn't held them to 25.9% on non-dunk two-pointers.
    Have to imagine having Zion on the bench hurt our defensive rebounding percentage.

  20. #40

    Syracuse

    dRtg: 1.05 (adjusted that's 1.00, not great but considering we played without our two best defenders, it might be as good as we could have hoped for)
    eFG%: 50.6% (pretty bad but, again, we played without our two best defenders)
    3pt%: 44.0% (really bad but, ditto)
    2pt%: 43.6% (not bad, considering)
    %threes: 31.3%
    FT rate: 23.8%
    DR%: 72.3% (really good for us, against a pretty good (though not great) offensive rebounding team)
    TO%: 16.4% (broke our nine game streak of having a 20%+ TO%; clearly Tre and/or Cam are the key to Duke turning our opponents over)
    a/to: 0.87:1 (tenth straight game our opponents have had more turnovers than assists)
    %assisted: 37.1%
    fast break pts: for some reason, we only have first half data for this, and in the first half Syracuse had 4 fb pts for 8.3% of their points
    block%: 15.0%; 21.8% of 2-point shots (very strong for the second-best blocking team in the country)
    steal%: 8.8% (third straight only so-so game, compared to our season steals performance; but without Cam and Tre, that was to be expected)


    I hate to sound like a broken record, but playing without our two best defenders our overall defensive performance wasn't that bad.

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