MBB: Phase II (through Texas Tech)

[DukieInBrasil]

This is true regarding Javin's TO%. But of Javin's 10 turnovers so far this season, a quick perusal of the play-by-play suggests only 2 were from him being stripped of the ball. The rest were charges (2, maybe 3), stepping out of bounds (I think 1), throwing the ball away, and moving screens (I suspect at least 3 moving screens). So it's not like he's being stripped constantly or anything.

that may be true, but i recall seeing the ball in his hands and it getting taken away on rebounds quite a bit. The in-game chat has called it "8 yr old girl hands". They may not show up as turnovers b/c it may not have registered as a possession, but Javin loses balls that he had both hands on a fair amount. I remember seeing that happen at least 2 or 3 times vs IU.

[Kedsy]

that may be true, but i recall seeing the ball in his hands and it getting taken away on rebounds quite a bit. The in-game chat has called it "8 yr old girl hands". They may not show up as turnovers b/c it may not have registered as a possession, but Javin loses balls that he had both hands on a fair amount. I remember seeing that happen at least 2 or 3 times vs IU.

Maybe. His offensive rebounding pct (13.5%) is pretty good and his defensive rebounding pct (17.4%) is adequate but not particularly good for a guy who plays most of his minutes at center. But his overall rebounding percentage is 2nd on the team (behind Zion), so he's probably not losing too many more rebounds he should get than any of our other players.

[DukieInBrasil]

Maybe. His offensive rebounding pct (13.5%) is pretty good and his defensive rebounding pct (17.4%) is adequate but not particularly good for a guy who plays most of his minutes at center. But his overall rebounding percentage is 2nd on the team (behind Zion), so he's probably not losing too many more rebounds he should get than any of our other players.

one of the ones i remember specifically was when Javin received a pass just outside of the paint, or maybe he was right on the line, and rather than just going strait up at the basket, dribbled maybe even did a bunny hop and then either got it knocked away on the way up or blocked. Either way, the result was that he lost the ball because he didn't make an aggressive move to the basket right away. It's certainly something he can learn and/or improve on. He's got the athleticism to dunk the ball off of a pass like that, but hasn't managed to make that his instinctive response.
I'd love to see some of his other offensive diversification we heard about in the off-season, but withe other amazing offensive options on this team i doubt we'll see it much, if at all.

[Kedsy]

I'd love to see some of his other offensive diversification we heard about in the off-season, but withe other amazing offensive options on this team i doubt we'll see it much, if at all.

Probably true. Doing what he does best, Javin has converted his last 8 fg attempts. Still has a long way to go to break Alaa Abdelnaby's Duke record of 20 (set in 1988-89).

In Marques Bolden news, against Yale he had 1 defensive rebound and 2 blocks in 12 minutes. That gives him a DR% of 9.2% and a block% of 10.9%, which would break Shelden's all-time Duke record if it lasts all season.

[Indoor66]

Probably true. Doing what he does best, Javin has converted his last 8 fg attempts. Still has a long way to go to break Alaa Abdelnaby's Duke record of 20 (set in 1988-89).

In Marques Bolden news, against Yale he had 1 defensive rebound and 2 blocks in 12 minutes. That gives him a DR% of 9.2% and a block% of 10.9%, which would break Shelden's all-time Duke record if it lasts all season.

Which, to me, represents the meaninglessness of some statistics.

[DukieInBrasil]

Which, to me, represents the meaninglessness of some statistics.

i don't know why you'd find that meaningless. Marques is playing the vast majority of his minutes against the opposing starters, so he's getting blocks against the opponents' best players, not the deep bench guys in mop-up time. It's just that he's not playing a lot of minutes, largely b/c he's an historically bad defensive rebounder and doesn't bring a lot of offense to the table. It's like the old Zoubek myth, that all of the sudden he took this huge leap forward and became great, when the reality was that he simply started getting more minutes. Zoubek's rebound and scoring rate didn't really change, he just started playing more.

[Clipsfan]

Probably true. Doing what he does best, Javin has converted his last 8 fg attempts. Still has a long way to go to break Alaa Abdelnaby's Duke record of 20 (set in 1988-89).

In Marques Bolden news, against Yale he had 1 defensive rebound and 2 blocks in 12 minutes. That gives him a DR% of 9.2% and a block% of 10.9%, which would break Shelden's all-time Duke record if it lasts all season.

If I remember correctly, that one rebound was one that fell into his hands on the baseline, it wasn't one that he sought out.

[loran16]

i don't know why you'd find that meaningless. Marques is playing the vast majority of his minutes against the opposing starters, so he's getting blocks against the opponents' best players, not the deep bench guys in mop-up time. It's just that he's not playing a lot of minutes, largely b/c he's an historically bad defensive rebounder and doesn't bring a lot of offense to the table. It's like the old Zoubek myth, that all of the sudden he took this huge leap forward and became great, when the reality was that he simply started getting more minutes. Zoubek's rebound and scoring rate didn't really change, he just started playing more.

Not really buying the "Bolden historically bad defensive rebounder" narrative - Bolden's D Boarding last year was at a far more normal for a center 18% (totally unimpressive in that area mind you, but normal) and this strikes me as more of a small sample fluke than anything. I expect Bolden's block rate to drop and his dboarding to increase due to simple regression.

As for Zoubek, Zoubek in Freshman through Junior years was pretty consistent at ~16% O Board and 19-20% D Boards, while those numbers jumped to 21% O Boarding (1st in NCAA) and nearly 25% as a Senior. So no it wasn't really a myth that he took a leap forward. He did! It coincided with him playing more because, well that's what happens when you take a leap forward.

[COYS]

Not really buying the "Bolden historically bad defensive rebounder" narrative - Bolden's D Boarding last year was at a far more normal for a center 18% (totally unimpressive in that area mind you, but normal) and this strikes me as more of a small sample fluke than anything. I expect Bolden's block rate to drop and his dboarding to increase due to simple regression.

As for Zoubek, Zoubek in Freshman through Junior years was pretty consistent at ~16% O Board and 19-20% D Boards, while those numbers jumped to 21% O Boarding (1st in NCAA) and nearly 25% as a Senior. So no it wasn't really a myth that he took a leap forward. He did! It coincided with him playing more because, well that's what happens when you take a leap forward.

I think the narrative of zoubek’s rate stats remaining stable while his minutes increased is misremembered. It wasn’t as much about zoubek’s career stays remaining stable as it was his senior season stats. Even before his famous breakout against Maryland in February and subsequent move to the starting lineup, senior Zoubek had been a beast on the o-boards and his plus/minus numbers were impressive. And while some of those stats were good in past seasons, they moved into elite status his senior year. However, he didn’t get the minutes until later in the season. Another component of Zoubek’s increase in minutes was a decrease in foul rate. I just think it took time for the staff to figure out how to best use Zoubek’s rather unique skill set and to trust that he could stay on the floor enough to be one of the most important pieces on a championship team.

[BandAlum83]

Not really buying the "Bolden historically bad defensive rebounder" narrative - Bolden's D Boarding last year was at a far more normal for a center 18% (totally unimpressive in that area mind you, but normal) and this strikes me as more of a small sample fluke than anything. I expect Bolden's block rate to drop and his dboarding to increase due to simple regression.

As for Zoubek, Zoubek in Freshman through Junior years was pretty consistent at ~16% O Board and 19-20% D Boards, while those numbers jumped to 21% O Boarding (1st in NCAA) and nearly 25% as a Senior. So no it wasn't really a myth that he took a leap forward. He did! It coincided with him playing more because, well that's what happens when you take a leap forward.

Zoubek's O rebounding was even better. I'm quite sure there were numerous tap outs That could have been counted as rebounds and assists.

[Kedsy]

If I remember correctly, that one rebound was one that fell into his hands on the baseline, it wasn't one that he sought out.

You remember correctly. I noticed that when it happened as well.

Not really buying the "Bolden historically bad defensive rebounder" narrative - Bolden's D Boarding last year was at a far more normal for a center 18% (totally unimpressive in that area mind you, but normal) and this strikes me as more of a small sample fluke than anything. I expect Bolden's block rate to drop and his dboarding to increase due to simple regression.

You may be right about regression. But for all we know his adequate (18%) DR% in 373 minutes last season might have been the fluke. His freshman year DR% was 8.4%, even worse than this year, albeit in limited (158) minutes. And right now, he's "earned" that 9% DR% (in 182 minutes, almost half his total minutes last season). His career DR% is 13.5%, which is pretty awful for a center, and that might be the mean to which he regresses.

Considering he had 7 blocks in one game, the blocks might be a more reasonable candidate to regress to the mean. Though it's worth noting that in the past few games his block rate has increased, so maybe it's real. Who knows? We obviously won't until the end of the season.

Which, to me, represents the meaninglessness of some statistics.

i don't know why you'd find that meaningless. Marques is playing the vast majority of his minutes against the opposing starters, so he's getting blocks against the opponents' best players, not the deep bench guys in mop-up time. It's just that he's not playing a lot of minutes, largely b/c he's an historically bad defensive rebounder and doesn't bring a lot of offense to the table.

I agree with DiB. While it may be a small sample aberration, as loran16 suggests, it's certainly not meaningless. In the first 10 games of this season, Marques Bolden has blocked shots at a rate a little better than Shelden Williams's best season. Shelden was a lot better than Marques at other things, but so far Marques has been a slightly better shotblocker. If it lasts all season, we should give Marques his due, even if he only plays 15 or so mpg.

It wasn’t as much about zoubek’s career stats remaining stable as it was his senior season stats. Even before his famous breakout against Maryland in February and subsequent move to the starting lineup, senior Zoubek had been a beast on the o-boards and his plus/minus numbers were impressive. And while some of those stats were good in past seasons, they moved into elite status his senior year. However, he didn’t get the minutes until later in the season.

I think this is right too. In fact, his senior year OR% before the Maryland game (22.8%) was even better than his OR% from Maryland to the end of the season (20.6%).

People seem to be conditioned to consider counting stats above all others. But for guys who put up great advanced stats in limited minutes, who can say if it's "real" (meaning the great rates would continue if the player received more minutes) or "meaningless." Personally, I believe that after a certain number of minutes, the advanced stats show the true player. In other words, I don't think Mike Buckmire (20.5% OR%/18.5% DR% out of the guard position, in 10 total garbage-time minutes) is Duke's best overall rebounder this season, but I do think Marques Bolden's stats (in 182 minutes) accurately reflect who he's been so far this season.

[Ian]

Another factor to consider is that some bench players, knowing they will only play small minutes, goes all out for those minutes and produce good rates states that they cannot duplicate if they were playing starter minutes. So you can' just extrapolate that a player who gets says 7 rebounds per 15 minutes would be able to get 14 if you gave him 30 minutes.

[kAzE]

I think Javin looked really good in this Hartford game. I don't know if it was just the right match up for him, or if he's finally hit another level where he's past the foot injury, but this performance has me wondering if he will get the start over Bolden in the next few games.

I'm on fire with these predictions lately

[plimnko]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...-things-matter

[dyedwab]

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-bas...-things-matter

I think this article totally captures this team right now. They are so, so good - individually and as a team. But there are little things that they do that just need to be cleaned up. And that they will clean those things up as they play more because they are so, so good - individually and as a team.

[lotusland]

Yikes, those rebounding stats are more than slightly concerning. To this point in the season, I think Marques and Javin have both slightly under-performed (relative to preseason expectations), although I suspect Javin is still not fully healthy.

I'm not sure if it's the injury, but Javin seems to have a really hard time relative to most other big men at staying upright . . . he ends up on the floor (and not by design) on an inordinate number of plays. Maybe he needs to work on his leg/core strength or something, I dunno. His balance is not very good right now.

Jack has been the best 5th guy next to the 4 freshmen without question. I don't know if that means he will start. IMO, he probably shouldn't start unless the other team starts a small lineup. Once 100% healthy, Javin seems like the logical choice at starting center if Marques continues to be a liability on the glass. Jack is just such a shot of energy off the bench, and I like him in that role. However, I'm all for him continuing to get starter's minutes and closing games. He's been everything we needed from a role player and more.

Another possible solution that hasn't been really considered is to bring Cam Reddish off the bench, and start Jack White at the 3. It's definitely unconventional, considering Cam is easily our best shooter, and obviously one of the 3 most talented players on the roster, but I really liked seeing him being the focal point of that second unit against Stetson. He was much more aggressive than usual and took over the game at times. He's still way too sloppy with the ball, throwing lazy passes and often getting stripped in the paint, but he seemed to be a different player when he was the go-to guy with RJ on the bench.

Cam probably won't ever come off the bench, but I think playing through him while RJ/Tre are on the bench is something we need to explore more in the next few games. There's still a lot of untapped potential with Cam.

Bolden doesn’t have great rebounding instincts but a couple of other things also work against his defensive rebounding. First off,we’ve played several teams who’ve worked to pull him away from the goal and switch on an smaller player on almost every possession. It’s much easier if you’re banging in the post to turn to the rim and block out your man. Secondly he’s an effective shot blocker which often inhibits rebounding unless you are The Landlord. Zoubek was a phenomenal rebounder but he wasn’t a shot blocker and the game has changed a lot since 2010.

[sagegrouse]

Another factor to consider is that some bench players, knowing they will only play small minutes, goes all out for those minutes and produce good rates states that they cannot duplicate if they were playing starter minutes. So you can' just extrapolate that a player who gets says 7 rebounds per 15 minutes would be able to get 14 if you gave him 30 minutes.

Although most often, "goes all out" produces fouls, not rebounds.

[Nugget]

This seems like a promising development (from Jon Rothstein's twitter page promoting a podcast interview he did with Coach K):

@JonRothstein - Dec 10

Coach K tells me that Duke's current freshman class is undertaking more responsibility than any he's had in recent memory. Blue Devils started four first-year players last year and three in 14-15.

[kAzE]

This seems like a promising development (from Jon Rothstein's twitter page promoting a podcast interview he did with Coach K):

@JonRothstein - Dec 10

Coach K tells me that Duke's current freshman class is undertaking more responsibility than any he's had in recent memory. Blue Devils started four first-year players last year and three in 14-15.

What was the context for this quote? If I had to guess, maybe they've really locked in since the loss to Gonzaga? And I'm also guessing RJ is the guy who put this idea into Coach K's mind.

I've been convincing myself that loss will end up being a blessing in disguise for this team as a motivational catalyst. It was a loss to one of the best teams in the country in a championship game with a Final Four type of feel, so I'm sure the team (and especially RJ) was extremely pissed and has worked like crazy to get better these past 2 weeks.

RJ got a bunch of flak for his performance in Maui, but I don't think anyone would dispute he's been the best player on the team since that loss. He's shot 40 of 65 (61.5%), and averaged 26.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in the 4 games since Maui, one in which he only played 17 minutes. He might be making a case to get back to the #1 overall pick in the draft. He has the MJ/Westbrook type of competitiveness. You can just tell how much he HATES losing.

I don't usually try to make predictions about the NCAA tournament, but barring injury, I would be shocked if this team doesn't make the Final Four. You rarely see a team this locked in on both ends of the floor.

[jv001]

What was the context for this quote? If I had to guess, maybe they've really locked in since the loss to Gonzaga? And I'm also guessing RJ is the guy who put this idea into Coach K's mind.

I've been convincing myself that loss will end up being a blessing in disguise for this team as a motivational catalyst. It was a loss to one of the best teams in the country in a championship game with a Final Four type of feel, so I'm sure the team (and especially RJ) was extremely pissed and has worked like crazy to get better these past 2 weeks.

RJ got a bunch of flak for his performance in Maui, but I don't think anyone would dispute he's been the best player on the team since that loss. He's shot 40 of 65 (61.5%), and averaged 26.3 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in the 4 games since Maui, one in which he only played 17 minutes. He might be making a case to get back to the #1 overall pick in the draft. He has the MJ/Westbrook type of competitiveness. You can just tell how much he HATES losing.

I don't usually try to make predictions about the NCAA tournament, but barring injury, I would be shocked if this team doesn't make the Final Four. You rarely see a team this locked in on both ends of the floor.

kAzE, you make some good points. It seems that RJ might be the leader of the freshmen class but Zion and Tre are close behind in leadership qualities. I would like to see Cam step up in that way. It looks like he's deferring to the other guys right now because his shot is not falling. I know he's still putting up shots but he doesn't seem to be taking a leadership role in game. Once he regains his confidence I believe we will see a different Cam. GoDuke!