MBB: Gonzaga 89, Duke 87 Post-Game Thread

[Utley]

I hate to burst everyone's bubble but right now this Duke team seems no different than the past four. I have to admit I got my hopes up that they a) genuinely like each other b) pass better than teams the last four years, c) play a modicum of man to man defense, and d) have a real point guard. But I look at one stat more than any other and that is assist to turnover. The last three games at Maui, Duke had more turnovers than assists. Ok, many of the SD State turnovers came in garbage time but this stat does not bode well for this team.

Duke cannot beat a team that has a set offense and can slow the game down like Gonzaga and Virginia. I had an epiphany that these one and done teams will never play good team ball in a set offense so this team's path to a Championship is to keep stressing defense and run, run, run on fast break. We don't shoot the three good enough to slow it down. Duke could not stop Gonzaga and as a result as Jay Bilas said they were taking the ball out of the net so they couldn't get out on the fast break. If Duke can make the defensive stops and run the fast breaks then their assist to turnover will get back to a healthy ratio and they will demoralize teams with dunk after dunk. Let their athleticism and sheer talent shine with this approach. It starts with stressing defense (we have a good start since Tre Jones plays great on ball defense) and ends with a fast break dunk!

It may just be me but I was happy with how things turned out for the team 4 years ago.

[Steven43]

It may just be me but I was happy with how things turned out for the team 4 years ago.

It’s not just you.

To that end I’m feeling a potential repeat, of sorts, of the 2014-15 season coming. This team will have some losses in January and February just like in 2015 — anyone remember the Miami game in Cameron? — but will endure and gain strength as the season goes on. By the time UNC enters Cameron Indoor on February 20 the players will have solidiified their roles and gained valuable experience and confidence. At that point the Devils will have probably suffered at least three losses.

But starting with the hated Heels I expect the good guys to be hitting on all cylinders and go on a run that might last all the way through April 8 in Minneapolis. There is a long way between here and there, of course, but I just have a feeling about another Jones brother being the glue that binds it all together and brings a smile to our collective faces that will last through the rest of the school year and all summer long. But who will play the role of Grayson?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

It’s not just you.

To that end I’m feeling a potential repeat, of sorts, of the 2014-15 season coming. This team will have some losses in January and February just like in 2015 — anyone remember the Miami game in Cameron? — but will endure and gain strength as the season goes on. By the time UNC enters Cameron Indoor on February 20 the players will have solidiified their roles and gained valuable experience and confidence. At that point the Devils will have probably suffered at least three losses.

But starting with the hated Heels I expect the good guys to be hitting on all cylinders and go on a run that might last all the way through April 8 in Minneapolis. There is a long way between here and there, of course, but I just have a feeling about another Jones brother being the glue that binds it all together and brings a smile to our collective faces that will last through the rest of the school year and all summer long. But who will play the role of Grayson?

The analogy to 14-15 is there, but of course, not perfect as you know..but worth exploring. So running with your theme, the "role of Grayson" in the Final Four could be played by AOC. You know, the guard off the bench who has hops, can shoot, and will hustle... So while Grayson was energy and good against Michigan State in 15, he was only needed against Wisconsin...and only needed because of deep deep foul trouble and an inexplicable funk the rest of the guys were in for a while. Thank goodness he was up to it, because we were going down without that burst.

[rsvman]

The analogy to 14-15 is there, but of course, not perfect as you know..but worth exploring. So running with your theme, the "role of Grayson" in the Final Four could be played by AOC. You know, the guard off the bench who has hops, can shoot, and will hustle... So while Grayson was energy and good against Michigan State in 15, he was only needed against Wisconsin...and only needed because of deep deep foul trouble and an inexplicable funk the rest of the guys were in for a while. Thank goodness he was up to it, because we were going down without that burst.

You beat me to it.

Enter the Slim Reaper!

[jimsumner]

I hate to burst everyone's bubble but right now this Duke team seems no different than the past four. I have to admit I got my hopes up that they a) genuinely like each other b) pass better than teams the last four years, c) play a modicum of man to man defense, and d) have a real point guard. But I look at one stat more than any other and that is assist to turnover. The last three games at Maui, Duke had more turnovers than assists. Ok, many of the SD State turnovers came in garbage time but this stat does not bode well for this team.

Duke cannot beat a team that has a set offense and can slow the game down like Gonzaga and Virginia.

Duke losing 89-87 in November to the No. 3 team in the country proves that Duke cannot beat a team that "slows" down the game?

I hope you use your powers for good.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Duke losing 89-87 in November to the No. 3 team in the country proves that Duke cannot beat a team that "slows" down the game?

I hope you use your powers for good.

Be cool man. This poster has been here for nearly a month. S/he knows of what they speak.

[BandAlum83]

Duke losing 89-87 in November to the No. 3 team in the country proves that Duke cannot beat a team that "slows" down the game?

I hope you use your powers for good.

Release the Spork!!

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Duke losing 89-87 in November to the No. 3 team in the country proves that Duke cannot beat a team that "slows" down the game?

I hope you use your powers for good.

Right...cuz nothing says "slow-down" or incapability like an 89-87 score....

[elvis14]

I hate to burst everyone's bubble but right now this Duke team seems no different than the past four. I have to admit I got my hopes up that they a) genuinely like each other b) pass better than teams the last four years, c) play a modicum of man to man defense, and d) have a real point guard. But I look at one stat more than any other and that is assist to turnover. The last three games at Maui, Duke had more turnovers than assists. Ok, many of the SD State turnovers came in garbage time but this stat does not bode well for this team.

Duke cannot beat a team that has a set offense and can slow the game down like Gonzaga and Virginia. I had an epiphany that these one and done teams will never play good team ball in a set offense so this team's path to a Championship is to keep stressing defense and run, run, run on fast break. We don't shoot the three good enough to slow it down. Duke could not stop Gonzaga and as a result as Jay Bilas said they were taking the ball out of the net so they couldn't get out on the fast break. If Duke can make the defensive stops and run the fast breaks then their assist to turnover will get back to a healthy ratio and they will demoralize teams with dunk after dunk. Let their athleticism and sheer talent shine with this approach. It starts with stressing defense (we have a good start since Tre Jones plays great on ball defense) and ends with a fast break dunk!

Wow, interesting post. Here's a link that shows our results vs UVa. We sure do pretty well against them, especially since they are a team that we cannot beat.

As for assist to turnover ratio. How many assists we get is dependent on the style of play we use on offense. Using a 5-out set and relying on guys driving (and sometimes dishing) isn't always going to produce lots of assists. Especially when the guys driving are having success scoring. I will admit, however that I would have loved 1 more assist against Gonzaga. Right now we are better out running the floor than in the half court (most teams are better when they get out and run..when they can). As the season goes on, the gap will close. We will improve in the half court.

Our defense this year is already better than previous years as far as I can see (I know others have stats to show this...I know what I see). I don't see us having to give up on good defense and switch to a zone this year. Note that if you are sitting in the first couple of rows, make sure you are paying attention because Zion's going to peg few innocent bystanders along the way.

[johnb]

I read this and immediately thought of Laettner missing game-tying free throws as a freshman:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-wCjjMb5aN4
(1:26 mark)
I had forgotten he was only a 70% FT shooter as a freshman.
Fast forward to the Vegas game where he calmly hit 2 FTs to win the game. Very similar situations except in the second instance the game was tied.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jerryba.../#21a9a41c5080
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RLU4leUrUDQ
Even the great ones take time to reach their full potential and it usually isn’t reached in one year.

K's fan criticism induced me to wade into the post game thread--which I generally avoid after losses. The negativism is more annoying, to me, than the giddiness after big wins.

Anyway, RJ's coming up short also reminded me of Laettner's FT misses in the Arizona game during his freshman year--and also reminded me of who consoled Laettner after the loss:

"Laettner first caught the eye of a prominent Duke Law School alumnus, Richard Nixon, when the former president watched him blow a clutch free throw in the Devils' 77-75 loss to Arizona on Feb. 26 at the Meadowlands. Nixon sought Laettner out in the locker room to console him. Says Laettner of their brief summit, "It was a lot of fun."

Sports Illustrated, 1989
https://www.si.com/vault/1989/04/03/...sen-above-unlv

[Wildling]

I hate to burst everyone's bubble but right now this Duke team seems no different than the past four. I have to admit I got my hopes up that they a) genuinely like each other b) pass better than teams the last four years, c) play a modicum of man to man defense, and d) have a real point guard. But I look at one stat more than any other and that is assist to turnover. The last three games at Maui, Duke had more turnovers than assists. Ok, many of the SD State turnovers came in garbage time but this stat does not bode well for this team.

Duke cannot beat a team that has a set offense and can slow the game down like Gonzaga and Virginia. I had an epiphany that these one and done teams will never play good team ball in a set offense so this team's path to a Championship is to keep stressing defense and run, run, run on fast break. We don't shoot the three good enough to slow it down. Duke could not stop Gonzaga and as a result as Jay Bilas said they were taking the ball out of the net so they couldn't get out on the fast break. If Duke can make the defensive stops and run the fast breaks then their assist to turnover will get back to a healthy ratio and they will demoralize teams with dunk after dunk. Let their athleticism and sheer talent shine with this approach. It starts with stressing defense (we have a good start since Tre Jones plays great on ball defense) and ends with a fast break dunk!

Oh, you poor man. You know not of what you speak. The gentlemen here will sort you out. It looks like some of them already have,lol.

This year's team is soooooooooooooooooooooo much different than the past few years I am not really sure where to begin. Others here can properly speak to that much better than I can. But, I'll say this with 100% confidence. Just the mere fact that this year's team can play man to man defense without the worry of maybe having to resort to zone because they can't defend puts this team on another level far from last year's team and those of years past. That alone satisfies the hell out of me.

The fact we have 3 bonafide killers on offense (that's being conservative) that I feel completely confident in that they can get buckets at any time they want, sets my mind at ease so much, that I haven't once screamed at the TV on how they should be playing. They are just playing........and playing beautifully so far. Sure there are some hiccups, but holy @#$% this team can score! And they score at ease while the other team is trying as hard as they can to stop them. That's how good they are. They are making it look easy to get buckets when in fact the teams they are playing against are doing everything they can to stop them. When's the last time we've seen a team like that? 1999 maybe?

[Skydog]

As a person who is a bit critical of RJ I want to be clear that this has nothing to do with him making execution mistakes. Missing free throws at end of games, drives turning into turnovers and the like are just part of the game. Everyone misses, everyone makes mistakes, even NBA superstars. So those who are saying "he's just a freshman" or "he wasn't why we lost" are missing the point completely. I - and I think I speak for most of his critics - have little issue with him failing as long as he is playing within the team concept. But "hero ball" -- or whatever you call it when a player has predetermined at the beginning of a possession that he is going to go it alone and his teammates know they aren't going to get the ball back -- does bother me. It bothered me when Rivers did it (except one particular game!), it bothered me when Tatum did it, and it bothered me when JR did it in the Gonzaga game.

Of course Coach K could have set up some plays to free up shooters (including RJ) and I think that would have solved the issue. But from what I saw the whole plan at the end was give it to RJ and watch him drive! Again and again. RJ has shown that tendency already and the coaching staff fed into it.

Or at least that is how it appeared to me. Not a fan.

[johnb]

As a person who is a bit critical of RJ I want to be clear that this has nothing to do with him making execution mistakes. Missing free throws at end of games, drives turning into turnovers and the like are just part of the game. Everyone misses, everyone makes mistakes, even NBA superstars. So those who are saying "he's just a freshman" or "he wasn't why we lost" are missing the point completely. I - and I think I speak for most of his critics - have little issue with him failing as long as he is playing within the team concept. But "hero ball" -- or whatever you call it when a player has predetermined at the beginning of a possession that he is going to go it alone and his teammates know they aren't going to get the ball back -- does bother me. It bothered me when Rivers did it (except one particular game!), it bothered me when Tatum did it, and it bothered me when JR did it in the Gonzaga game.

Of course Coach K could have set up some plays to free up shooters (including RJ) and I think that would have solved the issue. But from what I saw the whole plan at the end was give it to RJ and watch him drive! Again and again. RJ has shown that tendency already and the coaching staff fed into it.

Or at least that is how it appeared to me. Not a fan.

RJ's approach and skillset do seem at least somewhat akin to Tatum's (I don't see him as particularly similar to Rivers aside from the fact that--like many wings--they like to drive to the basket). As a reminder, Jayson was awesome at Duke and is awesome in the NBA. It seems very likely we'll be saying exactly the same thing about RJ a year from now.

[Troublemaker]

Checking back in late in this thread since I was busy for Thanksgiving.

The smaller ball lineup was critical for our comeback and I think we’ll see more of that through the season
(again based on matchups). However, I agree with the previous poster, Gonzaga has a better team. We have more talented individuals, but watching the Zags last night reminded me of Duke teams in the late 80s with great teamwork and understanding of roles. I would pick them right now against any other college team.

I think this Duke team also has great teamwork, understanding of roles, and passing. They've been a joy to watch, really. It was only the Gonzaga game where we played more like individuals at times, and I'm not really sure why. I hypothesized in the Phase thread that the gameplan might've overemphasized driving to score, which led to an outlier low number of three point attempts. In any case, until I see it happen again, I consider this team to be one that shares the ball.

That single play was an opportunity to turn the game, for sure. Making the Dunk MAY have created momentum that could have energized Duke for a comeback at that point. Sure. I agree with that, and K supported Tre's decision to go for the Dunk.

My point is that we can't look at the missed dunk and final score to conclude that if had had made that, the score would have been tied at the time of the final buzzer. Maybe if he makes it, we go on a first-half run and win by 15.

If he does a simple lay-in, maybe not much else changes, or one coach makes a different player decision and one team or the other go on to win by 8. There are so many variables, we simply can't say. Basketball is a very dynamic game where a one play interacts with every other play for a through line. A missed basket here or missed free throw there can't be assumed to simply be added to the final score to say, "well if we hit 3 more free throws, we win". If we hit 3 more free throws, everything that happened after would change.

Do you follow my reasoning?

Yes, I agree with you completely. It's also a pet peeve of mine when it comes to playoff series. Remember in the 2017 Finals when the Cavs blew out the Warriors in Game 4 and people lamented how it would've been a tied series had the Cavs not lost a coin flip game in Game 3? As if the Warriors wouldn't have come out with MUCH more effort in Game 4 had they been only leading 2-1 in the series instead of 3-0. It's the so-called butterfly effect, right? You can't change something in the past and expect everything proceeding from that change to remain the same.

I hate to burst everyone's bubble but right now this Duke team seems no different than the past four.

Do we really want them to be that different from the 2015 team? Also...

Thinking back to the splash that Bags, Carter, and Trent made early last year, I think it’s true that these guys aren’t really more dominant at this point so we’ll have to wait and see.

... c'mon. This team is better than last season's team. No matter how you slice the analysis (stats, eye test, game results), this team is performing much better at the same point. Early on, last season's team had to continue to come back from double-digit deficits against opponents that weren't top-20 like Portland St, Texas, and Florida.

The worst you can say about this season's team is that we lost a coin flip game against a top-5 team in Gonzaga. We kept top-10 Auburn at arm's length the whole game and blew out top 25 Kentucky. I won't even mention the Indiana destruction since you didn't have that data point when you made your post.