College Football Playoff 2018

[HereBeforeCoachK]

It seems none of us like the current 4-team playoff, so we should all be rooting for my chaos scenario. As Wander notes, it keeps three of the 5 major conferences on the sidelines, which would be a huge problem for those leagues. The B10, B12, and P12 have the kind of power to force a bigger playoff to happen. It won't be overnight, but it could happen in a couple years, I think.

These things change in a progression. The bowls were an improvement on there being only a regular season. Then the BCS was an improvement on the bowls. What so many people never understood is that the problem wasn't the BCS - it was the totally broken system (meaning, a broken system for getting a consensus natty champ). The BCS moved us closer to a legit nat champ than the bowl systems with the Rose and Orange and Cotton and Sugar automatic tie ins - but people acted like we had a perfect system and the BCS came and messed it up. Not so. The people who designed the BCS system KNEW there would eventually be a playoff system. They knew the BCS was interim step

Now the 4 team play off is an improvement to the old BCS. An 8 team will probably be the sweet spot, and it will happen.

[Troublemaker]

The most logical, and my preferred, playoff format would be 16 teams – 10 conference champions and 6 at-larges. The fact that this is considered a radical idea when it is the exact same as nearly every single other American college and pro sport works tells you all you need to know. This is what it could look like this year:

I actually dislike that we're losing diversity in postseason formats. It's not just college football. I didn't like it when baseball expanded to 3 rounds and added a wild card. I enjoyed it when only 4 teams made the MLB playoffs and would not have terribly minded even if it were still just the NL regular season champ vs the AL regular season champ playing in the World Series like it was in the old, old days. I think I'm supposed to end this post with a lawn joke or something.

[Reilly]

... I think I'm supposed to end this post with a lawn joke or something.

A pun (a good one) or some beer knowledge would suffice. But some look askance even at that. We've become so fractious.

[Wander]

So, the playoff relevant rankings are

1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Notre Dame
4. Georgia
5. Oklahoma
6. Ohio State
7. Michigan
8. UCF

Seems pretty straightforward... except in the chaos scenario of Georgia, Oklahoma, and Ohio State all losing. The most logical thing based strictly on resumes and these rankings would be Georgia staying at #4... leading to an immediate, boring rematch with Alabama. Would the committee consider UCF at all in that scenario? Probably not, but it should be considered. It's too bad about their injury at QB.

[JasonEvans]

Seems pretty straightforward... except in the chaos scenario of Georgia, Oklahoma, and Ohio State all losing. The most logical thing based strictly on resumes and these rankings would be Georgia staying at #4... leading to an immediate, boring rematch with Alabama.

If... if GA and Bama play a close, exciting game then the rematch could be really interesting. But, if GA gets blown out by 14+ points then I see no way they make the playoff even if everything else breaks perfectly for them.

[OldPhiKap]

If... if GA and Bama play a close, exciting game then the rematch could be really interesting. But, if GA gets blown out by 14+ points then I see no way they make the playoff even if everything else breaks perfectly for them.

I think UGA is out with two losses.

I think Alabama is still in if UGA wins.

[Wander]

If... if GA and Bama play a close, exciting game then the rematch could be really interesting. But, if GA gets blown out by 14+ points then I see no way they make the playoff even if everything else breaks perfectly for them.

I agree... but who gets in then? Georgia is ahead of Ohio State and Oklahoma right now, and would have a "better" loss to Alabama than OSU or OU would have, so can't imagine OSU or OU jumping them. But putting a 2-loss Michigan team over a 2-loss OSU team would be indefensible given the head to head result.

So, does UCF have a small but realistic chance? In the scenario where UCF wins, and Georgia, Ohio State, and Oklahoma all lose, and the Georgia loss isn't particularly close?

[Acymetric]

I agree... but who gets in then? Georgia is ahead of Ohio State and Oklahoma right now, and would have a "better" loss to Alabama than OSU or OU would have, so can't imagine OSU or OU jumping them. But putting a 2-loss Michigan team over a 2-loss OSU team would be indefensible given the head to head result.

So, does UCF have a small but realistic chance? In the scenario where UCF wins, and Georgia, Ohio State, and Oklahoma all lose, and the Georgia loss isn't particularly close?

Not quite...Georgia would have two losses in that scenario. Yes, both would be better than than the teams they're up against, but they still have two of them. That should be enough to move them behind both OSU and OU. It wouldn't completely shock me if Georgia made it in anyway over both, but it would be a huge controversy. I think one of the one-loss conference champs gets in over them assuming a UGA loss. If UGA wins the SEC will send two teams (again, ugh).

In the "nightmare scenario" where 'Bama blows the doors of UGA, I could actually see UCF getting in. OSU, OU, and UGA will be knocked down by the losses so you theoretically have Michigan and UCF as your 4/5 spots. But the Ohio State loss hurts Michigan's resume (makes their loss to OSU look much worse). That all might be enough to sneak UCF in at #4. This is made significantly less likely by the UCF QB injury and depends on how well they show in their championship game.

Assuming all these losses happen and UCF doesn't get in, I think whoever has the better losing game of OSU and OU gets the fourth spot. OU gets the edge if they lose in similar fashions because Texas is ranked higher. I just don't see any appetite for a Bama-Georgia rematch, and the logic to include Michigan over the two conference champs is too twisted.

[Wander]

It wouldn't completely shock me if Georgia made it in anyway over both, but it would be a huge controversy.

My prediction for controversy is for that if all the favorites win, Oklahoma could jump Notre Dame for the more favorable semi-final.

[Ranidad]

How about 4 undefeated teams and NO one loss teams

If Georgia, Ohio State, and Oklahoma lose this weekend then UCF would be the only team on the outside with fewer than 2 losses. In addition none of the the two loss teams would have won their last game. This does discount the Mountain West teams with 2 losses.

Can you keep an undefeated UCF team out of he last spot in that scenario?

[Acymetric]

How about 4 undefeated teams and NO one loss teams

If Georgia, Ohio State, and Oklahoma lose this weekend then UCF would be the only team on the outside with fewer than 2 losses. In addition none of the the two loss teams would have won their last game. This does discount the Mountain West teams with 2 losses.

Can you keep an undefeated UCF team out of he last spot in that scenario?

That's what the last few posts are discussing (although I'm not sure what you mean by "4 undefeated teams" which isn't possible since there are only currently 2).

[OldPhiKap]

That's what the last few posts are discussing (although I'm not sure what you mean by "4 undefeated teams" which isn't possible since there are only currently 2).

Alabama
Clemson
ND
UCF

are all undefeated

I would laugh if ND somehow got jumped because they are not in a league and don't play a playoff game. If they were fully in the ACC, either they would be playing Clemson for the championship or the two teams would have already played each other and knocked one down.

[Acymetric]

Alabama
Clemson
ND
UCF

are all undefeated

I would laugh if ND somehow got jumped because they are not in a league and don't play a playoff game. If they were fully in the ACC, either they would be playing Clemson for the championship or the two teams would have already played each other and knocked one down.

D'oh! I temporarily forgot about Clemson and ND. Thanks for the correction and my apologies to Ranidad.

I was very much rooting for Notre Dame to lose a game for this very reason. Really did not want to see them in the playoff as an independent (I hate their current arrangement with the ACC at all levels in all sports).

I guess it didn't click in my mind because this is by far the most likely scenario and with the most obvious outcome (the first three teams plus one of OSU or OU) and so not very interesting. The argument is no better for UCF this year than last (in fact worse after losing their QB), if that wasn't enough it won't be now either (not saying I agree with the process).

[Wander]

The argument is no better for UCF this year than last (in fact worse after losing their QB), if that wasn't enough it won't be now either (not saying I agree with the process).

Well, UCF was ranked 14th at this point last year. Now they're ranked 8th. So they ARE in a better spot. Although I agree about their QB – the new guy will have to look really good in the game this weekend or else UCF will be eye tested down the rankings no matter what happens.

One last wrinkle to my scenario above – Pitt upsetting Clemson. Could you really keep out an undefeated team in favor of a two-loss team, when that undefeated team has a win over a power conference champion?

[Acymetric]

Well, UCF was ranked 14th at this point last year. Now they're ranked 8th. So they ARE in a better spot. Although I agree about their QB – the new guy will have to look really good in the game this weekend or else UCF will be eye tested down the rankings no matter what happens.

One last wrinkle to my scenario above – Pitt upsetting Clemson. Could you really keep out an undefeated team in favor of a two-loss team, when that undefeated team has a win over a power conference champion?

Yes, but the two-loss team would be Georgia. In a scenario where OSU, OU, Clemson, and Georgia all lose I could see:

1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Georgia
4. UCF

But would probably put my money on

1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Georgia
4. Oklahoma (assuming not a terrible loss to Texas)

If Georgia were to win the order gets shaken all up but the teams stay the same. Of course, OSU, OU, and Clemson all losing would have to be among the most unlikely events in sports postseason history. Wonder what that parlay gets you?

[Stray Gator]

Yes, but the two-loss team would be Georgia. In a scenario where OSU, OU, Clemson, and Georgia all lose I could see:

1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Georgia
4. UCF

But would probably put my money on

1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Georgia
4. Oklahoma (assuming not a terrible loss to Texas)

If Georgia were to win the order gets shaken all up but the teams stay the same. Of course, OSU, OU, and Clemson all losing would have to be among the most unlikely events in sports postseason history. Wonder what that parlay gets you?

I must be missing something. Clemson currently has no losses. If Pitt upsets Clemson, that would leave Clemson with only one loss. Why would a one-loss Clemson be left out of the playoff in favor of any two-loss team (or. for that matter, any other one-loss team, with the possible exception of Georgia and Alabama, should the SEC Championship Game result in an upset)?

[Acymetric]

I must be missing something. Clemson currently has no losses. If Pitt upsets Clemson, that would leave Clemson with only one loss. Why would a one-loss Clemson be left out of the playoff in favor of any two-loss team (or. for that matter, any other one-loss team, with the possible exception of Georgia and Alabama, should the SEC Championship Game result in an upset)?

I suppose my line of thinking is that the Pitt loss would be worse than OU's loss to Texas by enough that they would fall behind them (all of Clemson, UGA, OU, and OSU "drop" because everyone lost, but Clemson drops further because they lost to the worst team and since there's only so far to fall that means the other teams move up). Pitt is the only team in the Big 4 champ weekend not currently ranked in any poll, and I think that loss hurts if it were to happen (unlikely). It wouldn't take a whole lot to convince me Clemson still gets the 4th spot over OU with one less loss, but I think losing to Pitt takes them out of the running in a way that losing to Texas doesn't for OU. I don't care that they won their terrible division, Pitt is not a good team and that would be a bad look.

[75Crazie]

There is an idea that seems to be getting some traction now that I have not seen mentioned in this thread so far: the playoff could be extended to an 8-team playoff without having to add an additional game, by eliminating the incredibly stupid conference title games and replacing them with the first round of the 3-round playoff. These title games are rarely compelling to anybody other than fans of the specific teams and conference officials, and this year is a case in point. Here is how I would rate the five P5 conference title games, in descending order of interest:

1. SEC: The only reason I list this at the top is because it is the only game where both participants belong in an 8-team playoff; Alabama is obviously already the conference champion. The problem is that Alabama is in the 4-team playoff regardless of the result of this game, and Georgia is out of the playoff unless it pulls a big upset and wins the game … where it will quite possibly have to play Alabama yet again. I think most people believe Georgia belongs in a 4-team playoff; in an 8-team playoff, it should be ranked in the top 4 and play one of the next 4 teams in the first round.
2. Big 12: The only reason I rank this second is because Oklahoma has a lot to gain by winning this game. These two teams have already played this year and that, I believe, significantly reduces the neutral fan's interest in the game. Texas has little to gain in this game, aside from bragging rights. This is one of only two P5 conferences where the conference champion is not already obvious.
3. Big 10: The only possible interest in this game is the chaos that might result if Ohio St wins the game (along with an Oklahoma win), and that just continues the discussion that is already underway regarding the relative merits of these two teams. Otherwise, I believe this game is a big "meh" to most of the country. Ohio St is already the obvious conference champion.
4. ACC: The only reason I rate this game above the Pac 10 is because that latter game is a complete snooze; at least Clemson is well entrenched in the playoff discussion, and will remain there regardless of the result of this game. Pitt (really? Pitt? in a conference title game???) has little to gain here (I don't think it will gain a whole lot in bowl ranking), and Clemson really not much to lose (it is already the obvious conference champion).
5. Pac 10: Nothing much to say here, a complete "meh" game, justifying the anti-West bias of the rest of the country. The only reason at all to play it is if anybody really cares who the Pac-10 conference champ is.

The only reason for conference title games is a money grab … but would that money really be much (if any) less than the first round of a three-round playoff would generate? And the level of interest in the casual fan would be much greater, I believe, with a three-round playoff.

I am not much of a fan of conference championship tournaments in basketball, but I believe basketball is much more suited to accepting them. They make no sense at all for football (except, as mentioned, as a money grab).

[OldPhiKap]

I don’t think you can eliminate conference playoffs given the unbalanced schedules.

[AGDukesky]

I don’t think you can eliminate conference playoffs given the unbalanced schedules.

I say you can keep conference championships if no non-winners can make the playoff over an undefeated team. Treat it as an elimination game in that scenario...