Tracking the polls

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I am 90+% certain that Kentucky will be the (slight) favorite in the game against Tennessee this weekend.

It would not surprise me if that's the case - on the gambling line. But UT is number one, and there will be more pressure on them to defend that, and UK will be able to play the underdog card regardless of the official Vegas line. I'm very interested to see how it all plays out.

[brevity]

Reviving this thread after a couple of weeks.

The polls tomorrow will tell us for sure, but this has been the dream week for Carolina. After staying at #8 in the last AP poll after the UVA loss 2 weeks ago (and dropping only to Coaches #9, behind Houston), Carolina beat the #1 and #16 teams and saw Tennessee, Nevada, and Michigan lose.

Carolina will almost certainly stay behind Gonzaga, Virginia, and Kentucky, but can move up as high as #4, depending on where Duke and Houston are ranked. I suspect beating the #1 team on the road will put Carolina ahead of Houston in both polls. As for Duke, I would say that Zion's injury is the rare special circumstance -- the biggest story in all of sports -- that even a group of automatons like poll voters would notice. It may be enough to keep Duke ranked ahead of Carolina.

My guess:

1. Gonzaga
2. Virginia
3. Kentucky
4. Duke
5. Carolina
6. Houston
7. Tennessee
8. Michigan State
9. Michigan
10. Nevada (or maybe Marquette)

The main thing that happened this week was that Carolina is now in range of a 1 seed, and probably at the expense of either Duke or Virginia.

[AGDukesky]

What would be the logic for moving UK above Duke? We have a better record, killed them head-to-head, and they lost at home to LSU the previous week(thus they are not on some insane winning streak). Gonzaga makes sense and UVA maybe does if you don’t care that Duke has two losses missing key players despite sweeping them. I don’t see a case for anyone else...

[Rich]

What would be the logic for moving UK above Duke? We have a better record, killed them head-to-head, and they lost at home to LSU the previous week(thus they are not on some insane winning streak). Gonzaga makes sense and UVA maybe does if you don’t care that Duke has two losses missing key players despite sweeping them. I don’t see a case for anyone else...

I think it can go either way with respect to Kentucky, but the polls are usually based on a recency bias. The fact that Duke beat them is assuredly too far ago to make any difference. The fact that KY lost to LSU the previous week is somewhat relevant, but the polls usually seem to based on the most recent poll and what's happened since. In this case, KY won its games and Duke lost one of its games.

[AGDukesky]

I think it can go either way with respect to Kentucky, but the polls are usually based on a recency bias. The fact that Duke beat them is assuredly too far ago to make any difference. The fact that KY lost to LSU the previous week is somewhat relevant, but the polls usually seem to based on the most recent poll and what's happened since. In this case, KY won its games and Duke lost one of its games.

I believe and certainly hope voters are not that myopic. UK was way too far behind Duke to jump us simply by not losing in a week when we lost to a top 10 team without our best player. Otherwise, these polls are completely non-sensical, which I will admit is possible...

[mph]

I’ll be surprised if we drop behind UK, especially with Zion’s injury featuring so prominently in our loss. We’ve still lost exactly 1 game at full-strength and have some good wins (@FSU, @Syracuse) while missing key players. I think we drop to 3 but I’ll be less surprised if we stay ahead of UVA than I will if we drop below UK. So, Zags, Hoos, Duke, UK. Outside shot of Zags, Duke, Hoos...

[Duke79UNLV77]

I’d expect us at #2. We have a better record in a better conference than Kentucky and clobbered them. We’ve played a mich better non-conference schedule than Virginia and swept them, including beating them without our point guard. Plus, I think most people still think we have the best team and realize that 2 of our 3losses were with major injury issues.

[uh_no]

you all are ascribing way too much rationality to polls and poll voters. I wouldn't be surprised if duke dropped below, UK, I wouldn't be surprised if duke dropped below UNC.

[JasonEvans]

It is worth noting that in ESPN's new power rankings released today Duke remains the #1 team. ESPN points out that even with 2 losses that can be ascribed to injuries, we clearly have the best resume in the land and the moment Zion comes back everyone knows we are the best team in the country. I am pleased ESPN is smart enough to see through the BS of "recency bias" and recognize the impact losing a player can have upon a team in the game where the loss happens.

But polls don't mean much of anything. I remain convinced that -- provided Zion is playing again -- Duke is the clear #1 overall seed. It would take us losing a game in which Zion plays for that not to be the case.

[BigZ]

Duke should be 2nd. Duke currently is 1st. Duke lost to 2nd ranked team Duke beat 3rd ranked team twice. Duke beat 4th ranked team by 28.

[Wander]

I think the logical flaw in the last few posts is not acknowledging that we haven't played a game with Zion healthy and back yet. Yes, if he is back and 100% healthy, we should be #1. But that hasn't happened yet, and without Zion we are a very good team, but not #1. The polls are going to reflect that, and should revisit the issue whenever he comes back.

[uh_no]

I think the logical flaw in the last few posts is not acknowledging that we haven't played a game with Zion healthy and back yet. Yes, if he is back and 100% healthy, we should be #1. But that hasn't happened yet, and without Zion we are a very good team, but not #1. The polls are going to reflect that, and should revisit the issue whenever he comes back.

I think the logical flaw in the last few posts is attempting to apply logic to the polls

[English]

I think the logical flaw in the last few posts is attempting to apply logic to the polls

This x1000. If there is ANY logic to the AP polls, and that's questionable, it's that the voters generally take last week's poll, look purely at who has lost since that time, and move teams around accordingly. As a few posters have already pointed out, this is both: 1) recency bias; 2) short-sighted. But, here we are.

It's probably the reason so many posters feel compelled to wander over to the "tracking the poll" threads on DBR whenever they pop up and talk about how worthless an exercise following the polls can be. Of course, this is a message board to talk about basketball things, and even arbitrary rankings of teams can be entertaining. At least in my view.

[AGDukesky]

AP did pretty much what I expected. Duke drops to 3rd but only trails UVA by 11 points and still has 3 first place votes - and still leads UK by 84 points.

[DarkstarWahoo]

We should both be ahead of the Zags.

[uh_no]

We should both be ahead of the Zags.

i don't think either team has much to complain about given duke lost to gonzaga head to head, and uva lost twice to duke.

[devildeac]

AP did pretty much what I expected. Duke drops to 3rd but only trails UVA by 11 points and still has 3 first place votes - and still leads UK by 84 points.

84 points! Oh, wait, you said "leads" not "beat."

[Rich]

This concerns me:

Also in the mix of what seems to be an eight-team battle for a No. 1 seed are North Carolina and Michigan. The Tar Heels, the top No. 2 seed currently, have a great chance to move ahead if other teams stumble because they're playing in a conference with two No. 1s — Duke and Virginia. Their first win over the Blue Devils was without Zion Williamson, albeit on the road at Cameron Indoor. But beat a healthy Duke squad (Williamson's return is pending) in the ACC season finale next week would pu UNC is in [stet] business as a legit No. 1-seed-caliber squad.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...rts-topstories

[Duke79UNLV77]

We should both be ahead of the Zags.

If you look at the full seasons of the 3 as a whole, considering schedules and results, I’d probably agree with Duke, Virginia, Gonzaga. It’s hard not to weigh the head-to-head results at the top, though, which would lead to Gonzaga, Duke, Virginia.

[Eternal Outlaw]

i don't think either team has much to complain about given duke lost to gonzaga head to head, and uva lost twice to duke.

They haven't played a projected tournament team since Dec 15th, in that span Duke has played 10 games vs teams currently in ESPN's bracketology. Wouldn't complain about it but more just point out how rankings are meaningless when a team can play chump after chump for 2 months and be ranked the best team.

Transitive of Gonzaga beat Duke who Beat Virginia is the only way this would make sense but transitive doesn't make sense. In contrast, Virginia two loses were against higher ranked team (Duke vs UNC, Tennessee) and they've played tougher teams on a regular basis. Gonzaga has what, 4 projected tourney teams on their schedule all year (Duke, Washington, UNC, Tenn)? Duke is about to play their sixth straight. Virginia played 4 of their last 5. #1 team shouldn't have such a pitiful schedule if an equal team with a tough schedule is available. Taking Duke out of it being a fan, Virginia certainly qualifies.