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  1. #41
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    i don't disagree with the thesis, but selectively ignoring the two largest first round upsets in Duke history is a bit disingenuous.
    See that's the thing. Having one OAD player doesn't make it an "OAD team." Here is the percentage of minutes played by freshmen in each of the last 10 seasons:

    2009: 10.5% (S16)
    2010: 14.5% (title)
    2011: 10.9% (S16)
    2012: 23.8% (1st rd)
    2013: 23.6% (E8)
    2014: 19.8% (1st rd)
    2015: 50.0% (title)
    2016: 46.8% (S16)
    2017: 33.4% (2nd rd)
    2018: 67.5% (E8)

    2012 wasn't a freshman-dominated team any more than 2013 was (and 2013 was considered a veteran team). And 2014 had fewer freshman minutes than either.

    I agree with Jason that the only years we truly had a freshman-centric team were the last four seasons (and of those four, the team that that did worst in the NCAA tournament was the team that had the fewest freshman minutes).

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    See that's the thing. Having one OAD player doesn't make it an "OAD team." Here is the percentage of minutes played by freshmen in each of the last 10 seasons:

    2009: 10.5% (S16)
    2010: 14.5% (title)
    2011: 10.9% (S16)
    2012: 23.8% (1st rd)
    2013: 23.6% (E8)
    2014: 19.8% (1st rd)
    2015: 50.0% (title)
    2016: 46.8% (S16)
    2017: 33.4% (2nd rd)
    2018: 67.5% (E8)

    2012 wasn't a freshman-dominated team any more than 2013 was (and 2013 was considered a veteran team). And 2014 had fewer freshman minutes than either.

    I agree with Jason that the only years we truly had a freshman-centric team were the last four seasons (and of those four, the team that that did worst in the NCAA tournament was the team that had the fewest freshman minutes).
    Alternatively, we can also use a metric that values the regular season. In this case, I use NCAA tournament seeding (I found a page on Wiki that had all the data in one table).

    '09 2 10.50% S16)
    '10 1 14.50% title)
    '11 1 10.90% S16)
    '12 2 23.80% 1st rd)
    '13 2 23.60% E8)
    '14 3 19.80% 1st rd)
    '15 1 50.00% title)
    '16 4 46.80% S16)
    '17 2 33.40% 2nd rd)
    '18 2 67.50% E8)

    It's the last four years where freshman have been so prominent in playing time. Have we done worse the last four years than the six previous years? Let's see... The last four years we have been seeded an average of 2.25 but won a total of 12 NCAA games (average of three). The six previous years we were seeded an average of 1.83 and won 13 NCAA games (average of 2.17). Not much difference, I would say.

    We didn't win as many games as the seeding would predict (which is inevitably the case for high-seeded teams).
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Preseason I would have predicted the final ACC standings to be: (1) UVA; (2) UNC; (3) Duke.
    I actually agree with that, but a big part of it is that Duke’s conference schedule this season is brutal. Two games apiece against UVA, CHeats and Syracuse which are the three best other teams. Road-only games against ND, VT, FSU, and Louisville. The Cheats’ schedule is much easier. And to be fair, the reverse was true last season.

    As for UVA, they’ve had the best regular season record for what, three years in a row now? And they have more talent this year than last. So it seems reasonable to give them the benefit of the doubt. Their style of play might make them ripe for an upset in the tournament, but they are also very consistent across the season and starting right out of the gate.

    If we’re picking odds of winning the title then that’s a very different thing. For regular season standings, having us three is reasonable.

  4. #44
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Winston-Salem, NC
    Interestingly UVA is #1 in the new Coaches poll:

    http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

    KJ Maura is getting free travel, ticket, and great seat for a big game. Kudos to him.

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Doesn’t make much sense that UVA jumped us. You could say we struggled against TT, but we still beat a borderline top-10 team while UVA still hasn’t beaten anybody.

    AP poll has us back at #1 8-)

  6. #46
    I'd be scared to be number one if I was Virginia. Usually when their ranked one a colossal upset follows(UMBC, Chaminade).

  7. #47
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    New Orleans, Louisiana
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Doesn’t make much sense that UVA jumped us. You could say we struggled against TT, but we still beat a borderline top-10 team while UVA still hasn’t beaten anybody.
    "That AP voter convinced us. Duke is winless in true road games, while Virginia won at Maryland and at South Carolina." -- 10 of 32 coaches, apparently

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    "That AP voter convinced us. Duke is winless in true road games, while Virginia won at Maryland and at South Carolina." -- 10 of 32 coaches, apparently
    Because Gonzaga, Auburn, UK, TT on neutral courts are so much easier games than at SC...
    Don't waste your time on House of Cards S6!
    -We found out Frank was critical to making anyone else in the show interesting...not a surprise...

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Jul 2008
    Location
    Honolulu
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    Doesn’t make much sense that UVA jumped us. You could say we struggled against TT, but we still beat a borderline top-10 team while UVA still hasn’t beaten anybody.

    AP poll has us back at #1 8-)
    If an undefeated team were going to jump Duke, I would've expected it to be Michigan, I guess.

    Meanwhile, Gary Parrish has Tennessee at 1 over Duke in his 25+1 thing. His reasoning--UT is the only school that checks all four of the boxes he selected because only UT satisfies all of them--is dumb.

  10. #50
    At a minimum, we have played or will play 9(gonzaga, auburn, uva, Texas tech, va. Tech, NC state, unc, fsu and indiana) of the 24 other teams in the current AP top 25. There might be a few teams who will have played tougher schedules than us when the brackets come out, but you'll probably be able to count those teams on one hand.

  11. #51
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    I have no problem with us being ranked anywhere between 1 and 5. UVA, Tennessee, Kansas and Michigan are very worthy teams. (Have not seen Nevada so no opinion on them).

    I do think, however, that we still have the biggest room for growth of the group. I like where we are holistically, regardless of ranking.
    1991 -- 1992 -- 2001 -- 2010 -- 2015

  12. #52
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Cary, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by JetpackJesus View Post
    Gary Parrish has Tennessee at 1 over Duke in his 25+1 thing. His reasoning--UT is the only school that checks all four of the boxes he selected because only UT satisfies all of them--is dumb.
    I don’t agree with his reasoning (if you wanted to create for “boxes” that Duke has checked and no other team has, you could easily do that). But at least he had Tennessee above us prior to Kansas losing. He had Kansas/Tenn/Duke, so we both just bumped up a spot. The Coaches poll as a whole had Kansas/Duke/UVA last week, which means enough people felt that UVA beating South Carolina and William & Mary was worth significantly more than us beating Texas Tech.

    The narrative of not having a true road win has unfortunately begun to garner media attention, and voters are susceptible to it. The sad thing is that our conference road schedule is absolutely BRUTAL, yet some idiot voters will decide that it doesn’t “count” because we didn’t CHOOSE to play those games.

  13. #53
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    New Jersey
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    Because Gonzaga, Auburn, UK, TT on neutral courts are so much easier games than at SC...
    Tell that to the Duke 2017 NCAA Tourney team. Too soon?
    Rich
    "Failure is Not a Destination"
    Coach K on the Dan Patrick Show, December 22, 2016

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by Rich View Post
    Tell that to the Duke 2017 NCAA Tourney team. Too soon?
    If that game had gone our way, we had a good chance to win another title and prevent unc from winning one. It might not ever be time for that joke.

  15. Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I don’t agree with his reasoning (if you wanted to create for “boxes” that Duke has checked and no other team has, you could easily do that). But at least he had Tennessee above us prior to Kansas losing. He had Kansas/Tenn/Duke, so we both just bumped up a spot. The Coaches poll as a whole had Kansas/Duke/UVA last week, which means enough people felt that UVA beating South Carolina and William & Mary was worth significantly more than us beating Texas Tech.

    The narrative of not having a true road win has unfortunately begun to garner media attention, and voters are susceptible to it. The sad thing is that our conference road schedule is absolutely BRUTAL, yet some idiot voters will decide that it doesn’t “count” because we didn’t CHOOSE to play those games.
    I don’t think coaches think that deeply. My guess is there is a large contingent of coaches who would prefer to vote for an undefeated team as #1. So all those voters went from Kansas to Virginia.

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Greenville, SC
    Quote Originally Posted by ice-9 View Post
    I don’t think coaches think that deeply. My guess is there is a large contingent of coaches who would prefer to vote for an undefeated team as #1. So all those voters went from Kansas to Virginia.
    I'm good with UVA being number one. I'd prefer to enter our first game with Virginia with us chasing them rather than them chasing us.



    And Merry Christmas

  17. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by Rich View Post
    Tell that to the Duke 2017 NCAA Tourney team. Too soon?
    That analogy doesn't work for a number of reasons...
    Don't waste your time on House of Cards S6!
    -We found out Frank was critical to making anyone else in the show interesting...not a surprise...

  18. #58
    Quote Originally Posted by UrinalCake View Post
    I don’t agree with his reasoning (if you wanted to create for “boxes” that Duke has checked and no other team has, you could easily do that). But at least he had Tennessee above us prior to Kansas losing. He had Kansas/Tenn/Duke, so we both just bumped up a spot. The Coaches poll as a whole had Kansas/Duke/UVA last week, which means enough people felt that UVA beating South Carolina and William & Mary was worth significantly more than us beating Texas Tech.

    The narrative of not having a true road win has unfortunately begun to garner media attention, and voters are susceptible to it. The sad thing is that our conference road schedule is absolutely BRUTAL, yet some idiot voters will decide that it doesn’t “count” because we didn’t CHOOSE to play those games.
    Parrish puts some thought into his weekly top 25+1 but he doesn’t take it that seriously and generally makes fun of various fan base members getting bent out of shape about it. It’s a meaningless metric.

    Also South Carolina is abysmal this year at home, on the road and in neutral venues. The seat is going to warm up for Martin this year although being just 2-years removed from a final 4 may give him another year or so. Most people feel like his coaching style is unlikely to attract and keep enough talent to build a successful program.

  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by lotusland View Post
    Most people feel like his coaching style is unlikely to attract and keep enough talent to build a successful program.
    He does come across as more than slightly psychotic when you watch his antics. I could never understand that hire in the first place.

  20. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by Indoor66 View Post
    He does come across as more than slightly psychotic when you watch his antics. I could never understand that hire in the first place.
    Coaches who have such huge personality traits often flame out quickly at a given place. So I was thinking about ole Frank on this. As I have ties to Gamecock land... a couple years ago, when the Gamecocks were kind of tanking late in the year (who knew they were about to go on a FF run) I asked a well placed friend if the 'Cocks were tiring of Frank's act. He said no, that the players LOVE Frank. And Frank was a hit in the NCAAT that year. And frankly, they played extremely well and could've easily beaten the Zags in the semis.

    But now I wonder. Two older players on that team (Silva and Kotsar) are not playing well...maybe the Martin act is tiring after all.
    Don't waste your time on House of Cards S6!
    -We found out Frank was critical to making anyone else in the show interesting...not a surprise...

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