Tracking the polls

[brevity]

A couple of Triangle-centric observations:

1. The next AP poll is important, because Duke is finally eligible for every voter's ballot. From January 7:

Beyond Duke, six teams who are on my top 25 ballot this week were initially ineligible when I began to not include teams who hadn’t yet played a true road game. The combined road record of those six teams since they began playing road games: 4-6. No. 1 Tennessee is 1-0, No. 6 Texas Tech (welcome back) 1-0, No. 7 Kansas 0-2, No. 8 Auburn 0-1, No. 11 Kentucky 1-1 and No. 20 Villanova 1-2. Winning on the road is so much harder than on neutral courts, and road games are telling of a team’s makeup and toughness and abilities beyond freakish athleticism. Duke might be the best team in the country. But 4-6 tells me we don’t really know what Duke is yet until the Blue Devils start playing on the road. Because they haven’t, at this point, its naive and unfair to celebrate them.

I would lend a small amount of support to Graham Couch's position if he were using it to keep Duke out of the top spot -- I have no road game bias, and would strongly consider putting Virginia or Michigan there myself -- but to leave them out of the Top 25 altogether is to ignore everything else and say that whatever the team has accomplished at home or in neutral sites simply doesn't count for anything. The poll breakdown is well-publicized these days; he would gain enough notoriety as an outlier by ranking them, say, #6. (Now that he's ranking Duke again, maybe he will.)

2. You may not want to hear this, but even after their 21-point home loss, there's a good chance that UNC will not drop too far in the rankings, if at all.

Sticking with the AP poll, here is how UNC and others fared:

#11 Auburn (1-1) lost at Ole Miss, won vs. Georgia
#12 UNC (1-1) won at #15 NC State, lost vs. Louisville
#13 FSU (1-1) won vs. Miami, lost vs. #1 Duke
#14 Mississippi State (0-2) lost at South Carolina, lost vs. Ole Miss
#15 NC State (1-1) lost vs. #12 UNC, won vs. Pittsburgh
#16 Ohio State (0-2) lost at Rutgers, lost at Iowa
#17 Houston (0-1) lost at Temple, plays Wichita State tonight
#18 Kentucky (1-0) won vs. Texas A&M, plays Vanderbilt tonight
#19 Buffalo (2-0) won vs. Toledo, won vs. Miami (OH)
#20 Iowa State (0-2) lost at Baylor, lost vs. Kansas State
#21 Marquette (2-0) won at Creighton, won vs. Seton Hall

The remaining ranked teams (Indiana, Oklahoma, St. John's, and TCU) each lost 1 or 2 games this week.

For UNC to move down, someone has to move up, and the best candidates are #18 Kentucky (pending the Vanderbilt game), #19 Buffalo, and #21 Marquette. None of those teams will have a recent victory as good-looking to voters as UNC's win in Raleigh. There is a stealth candidate -- unranked Ole Miss, who beat #11 Auburn and #14 Mississippi State, and sits atop the SEC at 3-0 and a 13-2 overall record -- but I see them definitely cracking the Top 20, maybe cracking the Top 15, and not displacing UNC.

A final thought: can UNC actually move up in the rankings? I hope not. #11 Auburn's loss doesn't look so bad now. #10 Nevada is playing at Fresno State tonight. The Top 9 teams have not lost so far this week, but I don't see UNC passing #2 Michigan, #5 Gonzaga, or #6 Michigan State even if they lose tonight or Sunday.

[AGDukesky]

I agree with much of that analysis but also think you could make a case to move FSU up by taking the #1 to the brink. UK should move ahead of UNC by virtue of winning head-to-head assuming no loss tonight. I see UNC likely moving down at least a couple spots after getting trounced at home by an unranked team who just lost to Pittsburgh.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

A couple of Triangle-centric observations:

1. The next AP poll is important, because Duke is finally eligible for every voter's ballot. From January 7:

.

Yeah perhaps that Couch guy will now say Duke has played a "true road game." I think today in Tallahassee meets that criteria...

[arnie]

Yeah perhaps that Couch guy will now say Duke has played a "true road game." I think today in Tallahassee meets that criteria...

Or he leaves us out for spite and to stay in the news. Remember, K has never been AP national coach of the year. I love these conspiracies😀.

[elvis14]

Yeah perhaps that Couch guy will now say Duke has played a "true road game." I think today in Tallahassee meets that criteria...

Once Couch shared his inappropriate criteria, he should have been removed as a voter.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Once Couch shared his inappropriate criteria, he should have been removed as a voter.

Or...

We could all be thankful that college basketball is a universe where votes don't determine anything, so we can roll our eyes at this joker and move on.

[Troublemaker]

Yeah perhaps that Couch guy will now say Duke has played a "true road game." I think today in Tallahassee meets that criteria...

Nope. @Wake didn't count because Wake is horrible. @FSU doesn't count because the Duke team that won that game isn't the Duke team that we'll have going forward (we hope).

@Pitt on Jan 22 is when Duke will play our first true, true, *true* road game.

[UrinalCake]

The CHeats got blown out at home to an unranked opponent - guess how many spots they dropped in the AP poll? ONE. They’re going to finish the regular season with double digit losses but the media will probably still be talking them up as a one seed like they did last season.

[AGDukesky]

I agree with much of that analysis but also think you could make a case to move FSU up by taking the #1 to the brink. UK should move ahead of UNC by virtue of winning head-to-head assuming no loss tonight. I see UNC likely moving down at least a couple spots after getting trounced at home by an unranked team who just lost to Pittsburgh.

Well I was close - both UK and FSU passed UNC but Auburn dropped more and no one else just below the Tar Heels apparently had a better week...

[wilson]

The CHeats got blown out at home to an unranked opponent - guess how many spots they dropped in the AP poll? ONE. They’re going to finish the regular season with double digit losses but the media will probably still be talking them up as a one seed like they did last season.

Well I was close - both UK and FSU passed UNC but Auburn dropped more and no one else just below the Tar Heels apparently had a better week...

Apropos of the above, unc's ranking didn't happen in a vacuum. 12 of the 15 teams ranked 11-25 last week lost at least once, five of them twice. I generally agree that the heels tend to get more of the benefit of the polling doubt than other teams, but in this instance, they got lucky during a bad week for the top 25 overall.

[SCMatt33]

UVA held the top spot in the coaches poll, so Saturday’s game will officially see #1 vs #1. Anyone know if that’s ever happened before?

[Kedsy]

UVA held the top spot in the coaches poll, so Saturday’s game will officially see #1 vs #1. Anyone know if that’s ever happened before?

Please refer to posts #66 through #72 of this very thread.

[SCMatt33]

Please refer to posts #66 through #72 of this very thread.

Thanks, looked back to the top of the current page, and stopped there since it was well before any current poll came out

[Ian]

FSU is the 2nd time this year a team has lost to Duke and moved up in the polls. Texas Tech went from 12 to 11 after losing to Duke on the 20th.

Auburn also lost to Duke and didn't lost ground in the polls. They stayed #8.

[UrinalCake]

I guess this means that after UNC loses to us, they should get a nice little boost in the rankings. Maybe crack the top 10 if it’s a huge blowout.

[rasputin]

Apropos of the above, unc's ranking didn't happen in a vacuum. 12 of the 15 teams ranked 11-25 last week lost at least once, five of them twice. I generally agree that the heels tend to get more of the benefit of the polling doubt than other teams, but in this instance, they got lucky during a bad week for the top 25 overall.

The Cheaters also beat a ranked team on the road last week, which would also temper the effect of a 20-point loss at home.

[Furniture]

With Duke ranked AP No. 1 this week, Mike Krzyzewski has surpassed John Wooden for most weeks ranked No. 1 in poll history.
122| Mike Krzyzewski
121| John Wooden
61| Adolph Rupp

[devildeac]

The Cheaters also beat a ranked team on the road last week, which would also temper the effect of a 20-point loss at home.

Whoa, let's not get carried away. Are we talking about NCSU here with their stunning SOS somewhere near the bottom of D1 MBB teams?

[brevity]

What will the Top 10 look like on Monday? Does Tennessee become a unanimous #1? Do Kansas, Texas Tech, and/or Virginia Tech slip out, and if so, who replaces them?

From the AP poll:

1. Duke (1-1) lost vs. Syracuse, won vs. #4 Virginia
2. Michigan (1-1) won vs. Northwestern, lost at Wisconsin
3. Tennessee (2-0) won vs, Arkansas, won vs. Alabama
4. Virginia (1-1) won vs. #9 Virginia Tech, lost at #1 Duke
5. Gonzaga (1-0) won vs. LMU, plays at Portland tonight
6. Michigan State (2-0) won at Penn State, won at Nebraska
7. Kansas (1-1) won vs. Texas, lost at West Virginia
8. Texas Tech (0-2) lost vs. Iowa State, lost at Baylor
9. Virginia Tech (1-1) lost at #4 Virginia, won vs. Wake Forest
10. Nevada (1-0) won at Boise State, plays vs. Air Force tonight

Next 10 teams with no loss this week: #11 Kentucky, #12 UNC, #15 Marquette, #16 Buffalo, #19 Maryland.

[CameronBornAndBred]

What will the Top 10 look like on Monday? Does Tennessee become a unanimous #1? Do Kansas, Texas Tech, and/or Virginia Tech slip out, and if so, who replaces them?

From the AP poll:

1. Duke (1-1) lost vs. Syracuse, won vs. #4 Virginia
2. Michigan (1-1) won vs. Northwestern, lost at Wisconsin
3. Tennessee (2-0) won vs, Arkansas, won vs. Alabama
4. Virginia (1-1) won vs. #9 Virginia Tech, lost at #1 Duke
5. Gonzaga (1-0) won vs. LMU, plays at Portland tonight
6. Michigan State (2-0) won at Penn State, won at Nebraska
7. Kansas (1-1) won vs. Texas, lost at West Virginia
8. Texas Tech (0-2) lost vs. Iowa State, lost at Baylor
9. Virginia Tech (1-1) lost at #4 Virginia, won vs. Wake Forest
10. Nevada (1-0) won at Boise State, plays vs. Air Force tonight

Next 10 teams with no loss this week: #11 Kentucky, #12 UNC, #15 Marquette, #16 Buffalo, #19 Maryland.

Not that I'm biased or anything, but we lost to 'Cuse close in a game we were down two of our best players, and beat the "other" #1 team without the top point guard in the country. I won't be shocked if we stay #1, but I'm guessing it will be Tenn, Duke, 'Zags (if they win tonight), UVA, MSU, with Duke getting plenty of #1 votes.