2019 Mock Draft tracking

[johnb]

2012 UK had the top two picks. Anthony Davis 1 and MKG went number 2

Kentucky’s draft in 2012: 4 in the 1st round. 2 in the second. Given that Cal cares about the draft more than the season (or at least he does when his drafts>seasons), this was a great year.

But this particular question was who came closest to 1-2-3, and Ky’s 3rd highest pick in 2012 was ”only” 18, so they lose.

I also didn’t mention the schools which likely would have had 3 go pro if that had been allowed, or that our 3 guys will all be teens while all the Indiana and Florida guys were grizzled 21 and 22 year olds who’d had elite runs the prior year...

Oh, and Duke’s best?
1999: 1, 11, 13, 14
This would be the 5th highest trio (using the lowest of the 3 as the key variable).

[sagegrouse]

Kentucky’s draft in 2012: 4 in the 1st round. 2 in the second. Given that Cal cares about the draft more than the season (or at least he does when his drafts>seasons), this was a great year.

But this particular question was who came closest to 1-2-3, and Ky’s 3rd highest pick in 2012 was ”only” 18, so they lose.

I also didn’t mention the schools which likely would have had 3 go pro if that had been allowed, or that our 3 guys will all be teens while all the Indiana and Florida guys were grizzled 21 and 22 year olds who’d had elite runs the prior year...

Oh, and Duke’s best?
1999: 1, 11, 13, 14
This would be the 5th highest trio (using the lowest of the 3 as the key variable).

Ah, yes. Metrics!! So, 1-2-18 is worse than 3-7-9? It depends on what weights you use. If one uses "sum of the digits" it is -- 21 vs. 19. If one uses rookie salary, it isn't -- $14.69 million for 1-2-18 is higher than $11.75 million for 3-7-9. If one uses simply the third drafted -- say 18 vs. 9 -- that's a little silly because it mean that 16-17-18 is the same as 1-2-18.

Anyway, back to the wildlife -- lots of elk in the yard this AM.

[Indoor66]

Anyway, back to the wildlife -- lots of elk in the yard this AM.

Gettin to be Steamboat weather time. 😀😎

[sagegrouse]

Gettin to be Steamboat weather time. 😀😎

Weather forecast for today.

[johnb]

Ah, yes. Metrics!! So, 1-2-18 is worse than 3-7-9? It depends on what weights you use. If one uses "sum of the digits" it is -- 21 vs. 19. If one uses rookie salary, it isn't -- $14.69 million for 1-2-18 is higher than $11.75 million for 3-7-9. If one uses simply the third drafted -- say 18 vs. 9 -- that's a little silly because it mean that 16-17-18 is the same as 1-2-18.

Anyway, back to the wildlife -- lots of elk in the yard this AM.

Exactly right.

I was using the rules of going low in 7 card stud, but one can argue...

[WNC]

2012 UK had the top two picks. Anthony Davis 1 and MKG went number 2

Not sure Charlotte considers it as great of a day as Calipari did.

[JNort]

Kentucky’s draft in 2012: 4 in the 1st round. 2 in the second. Given that Cal cares about the draft more than the season (or at least he does when his drafts>seasons), this was a great year.

But this particular question was who came closest to 1-2-3, and Ky’s 3rd highest pick in 2012 was ”only” 18, so they lose.

I also didn’t mention the schools which likely would have had 3 go pro if that had been allowed, or that our 3 guys will all be teens while all the Indiana and Florida guys were grizzled 21 and 22 year olds who’d had elite runs the prior year...

Oh, and Duke’s best?
1999: 1, 11, 13, 14
This would be the 5th highest trio (using the lowest of the 3 as the key variable).

I wholly disagree, they win easily. If its getting all 3 of the top picks then they are the only ones to get 2/3 of that proposal. Doesn't matter if they didn't have another player picked in the entire draft, they still got the closest.

[Troublemaker]

Haven't seen it mentioned here, Tre Jones is projected as #30 on nbadraft.net now.

Shocking! Shocking, I say!

- Chillin

PS - Pie.

Sam Vecenie‏Verified account @Sam_Vecenie 17h17 hours ago
Tre Jones is a first round pick. For sure.


The NBA draftniks like Vecenie are definitely starting to notice.

Tre's defense and basketball IQ have value.

[dukelifer]

Sam Vecenie‏Verified account @Sam_Vecenie 17h17 hours ago
Tre Jones is a first round pick. For sure.


The NBA draftniks like Vecenie are definitely starting to notice.

Tre's defense and basketball IQ have value.

He will be a first round pick but he needs to get better as a shooter and finisher to play meaningful minutes. But he will probably want to learn that at the next level. His court vision is elite.

[Troublemaker]

He will be a first round pick but he needs to get better as a shooter and finisher to play meaningful minutes. But he will probably want to learn that at the next level. His court vision is elite.

Sure, and he's also just 18 years old. There's a chance. Plus, few players are really complete. I mean, if Tre could shoot a good percentage at decent volume (say, 3 attempts a game), he might be a lottery pick, given his other positives.

[Troublemaker]

NBA teams have been drafting strictly on potential throughout the OAD era. So theoretically Tre’s draft projections should never be higher than they will be after this, his freshman year, where he has shown all of the skills and temperament needed to eventually become a solid NBA PG without any of the baggage or doubts that can attach themselves to a player who stays beyond his freshman year after he was considered to be worthy of a 1st round draft pick.

Say “Bye” to Tre while you still can because he is as good as gone. I hate it when one of our guys leaves before completing four years, but I have come to accept the reality of it.

ESPN is now projecting Tre to be the 21st best prospect in the 2019 draft on their Big Board: http://www.espn.com/nba/draft/bestavailable

Remember, DraftExpress merged into ESPN, so this is really the DraftExpress Big Board.

Yeah, Tre looks very likely to be OAD at this point, and I think Chillin' will win some pie.

[JasonEvans]

The latest NBADraft.net mock... about a week old so I would expect them to update again fairly soon.

Of note, they too have Tre going in the 2019 draft, as one of the final picks of the first round. They also have Bolden going in the middle of the 2nd round. Oh, and despite Roy's best efforts Nassir Little remains a top NBA prospect.

[UrinalCake]

Jones is as good as gone. We might as well embrace it and enjoy watching him develop over the course of the season, because at this point I don't see any way he comes back. I'm surprised to not see Darius Garland from Vanderbilt on the board any more, I wonder if people think he will return to school after missing this season due to injury? He's one of the guys who would potentially be in competition with Jones as one of the first PG's taken.

The fact that Reddish is still at #4 tells me that this draft board is taking a longer-term view and isn't overreacting to things that happen from game to game. Because to be honest he's been struggling and looks nothing like a top-5 pick. There must be confidence that he'll figure out his role and begin realize his enormous potential.

I'm also a little surprised to see Bolden in the second round. My guess is that he'll declare without an agent and will put up good numbers at the combine, and maybe someone will take him in the second round. Reminds me a lot of Isaiah Hicks from down the street.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Jones is as good as gone. We might as well embrace it and enjoy watching him develop over the course of the season, because at this point I don't see any way he comes back. I'm surprised to not see Darius Garland from Vanderbilt on the board any more, I wonder if people think he will return to school after missing this season due to injury? He's one of the guys who would potentially be in competition with Jones as one of the first PG's taken.

The fact that Reddish is still at #4 tells me that this draft board is taking a longer-term view and isn't overreacting to things that happen from game to game. Because to be honest he's been struggling and looks nothing like a top-5 pick. There must be confidence that he'll figure out his role and begin realize his enormous potential.

I'm also a little surprised to see Bolden in the second round. My guess is that he'll declare without an agent and will put up good numbers at the combine, and maybe someone will take him in the second round. Reminds me a lot of Isaiah Hicks from down the street.

Reddish is more or less playing the role that many expected he play at Duke - a secondary ball handler and 3rd option scorer. What's been particularly impressive about him is his defense. He's a killer on the wings in defense, stripping the ball, deflecting passes, and even blocking shots. Add to that his True Shooting Percentage is in line with Barrett and Jones while taking a lot of jump shots and you see he is an ideal player in the modern NBA. He has the length, quickness, skills, and mindset to guard almost any position on the court and has shown an ability to make shots off the dribble. So his floor is a 3-and-D at the 2 or the 3 with a ceiling of being a Paul George-like secondary playmaker and two-way player.

If I were picking between Reddish and Little, I'd be more inclined to believe that Reddish can improve his jump shot consistency than Little will figure out how to dribble the ball. Both are going to be in the NBA for a while.

[kAzE]

Reddish is more or less playing the role that many expected he play at Duke - a secondary ball handler and 3rd option scorer. What's been particularly impressive about him is his defense. He's a killer on the wings in defense, stripping the ball, deflecting passes, and even blocking shots. Add to that his True Shooting Percentage is in line with Barrett and Jones while taking a lot of jump shots and you see he is an ideal player in the modern NBA. He has the length, quickness, skills, and mindset to guard almost any position on the court and has shown an ability to make shots off the dribble. So his floor is a 3-and-D at the 2 or the 3 with a ceiling of being a Paul George-like secondary playmaker and two-way player.

If I were picking between Reddish and Little, I'd be more inclined to believe that Reddish can improve his jump shot consistency than Little will figure out how to dribble the ball. Both are going to be in the NBA for a while.

I'd also add that Cam is really skinny right now, which is probably the biggest thing holding him back from being a dominant two-way player at the college level. Once he gets into an NBA strength and conditioning program, I think that will really help his ability to finish in close, which he's had trouble with thus far at Duke. His frame just looks like it can be filled out. His body seems more similar to Paul George than Brandon Ingram (who I'm not sure will ever be able to put on significant weight).

[DavidBenAkiva]

I'd also add that Cam is really skinny right now, which is probably the biggest thing holding him back from being a dominant two-way player at the college level. Once he gets into an NBA strength and conditioning program, I think that will really help his ability to finish in close, which he's had trouble with thus far at Duke. His frame just looks like it can be filled out. His body seems more similar to Paul George than Brandon Ingram (who I'm not sure will ever be able to put on significant weight).

He definitely has that look of a Paul George or Jayson Tatum that will get bigger and be able to handle the rigors of the NBA.

Not that he's going to grow another 3 inches, but my favorite transformation is Giannis:

[brlftz]

Man, UCLA with 3 projected first rounders, and not even ranked. That's weird. Their two losses are to UNC and MSU, so nothing to be ashamed about there. Their schedule is pretty crappy overall though. The only other decent team they've played is a weaker than usual Notre Dame, and they only won on a last second shot. Still, I wonder if they're a more dangerous team than people realize.

To get back on topic, re: Reddish, I'm not surprised to see him in the top half of the lottery still. If you look at what he succeeds at - defense and shooting threes - it's easy to project his value in the NBA and feel like you're reasonably certain that he can meet those expectations. Some guys dominate in college doing things that opponents in the NBA can take away entirely, but what Cam does translates really well.

[Nugget]

Jones is as good as gone. We might as well embrace it and enjoy watching him develop over the course of the season, because at this point I don't see any way he comes back.

Sadly, this is probably right.

Jonathan Givony of Draft Express/ESPN (who I think is a little better regarded than NBA Draft.net) has a new Top 100 with Tre at #21. If he's projected in that range at the end of the season --which seems highly likely given his excellent play so far -- it seems almost certain he would go.

Givony hasn't knocked Nassir Little despite Roy's limited PT -- he's still got Little at #3 (and Zion/RJ/Cam at 1, 2 and 4). He's also got Coby White at #28, which hopefully would indicate he goes too.

Bolden is not in Givony's Top 100. Personally, I think that is a more accurate projection than NBA Draft.net suggesting he would be picked in round 2.

[kAzE]

If this was 10 years ago, I think Bolden would be a 1st rounder almost guaranteed, but plodding big men (especially ones with limited offensive skill) just aren't as valuable these days. Even the billionaire's version of Bolden, Rudy Gobert, is starting to become a liability in a playoff series. Most of the best teams would just take him out to the 3 point line with their sweet shooting big men, effectively removing him from being able to help protect the rim. How many minutes does Jonas Valanciunas play in a playoff series against a fully healthy Boston Celtics squad? Probably close to none.

The only non-shooting bigs who still thrive in the league these days are the most mobile ones. Guys like Capela, Siakam, Draymond, and Harrell.

Everyone saw what happened with Bolden in the Gonzaga game. That's just a taste of what would happen at the NBA level.

[DavidBenAkiva]

If this was 10 years ago, I think Bolden would be a 1st rounder almost guaranteed, but plodding big men (especially ones with limited offensive skill) just aren't as valuable these days. Even the billionaire's version of Bolden, Rudy Gobert, is starting to become a liability in a playoff series. Most of the best teams would just take him out to the 3 point line with their sweet shooting big men, effectively removing him from being able to help protect the rim. How many minutes does Jonas Valanciunas play in a playoff series against a fully healthy Boston Celtics squad? Probably close to none.

The only non-shooting bigs who still thrive in the league these days are the most mobile ones. Guys like Capela, Siakam, Draymond, and Harrell.

Everyone saw what happened with Bolden in the Gonzaga game. That's just a taste of what would happen at the NBA level.

I find this to be a very fixed mindset. Bolden has definitively improved and he is still quite young. The fact is that he can protect the rim, he is mobile, and he has NBA size. One hole in his game right now is the inability to guard the ball screen. That's huge as it is a very common offensive set in the NBA. He's going to have to get better at that. He's probably working on it right now. But you can't teach that size, reach, and fluidity of movement he has. Few players have that.

And for all the talk about shooting big men taking over the NBA, it's hogwash. Clint Capela. Few centers in the NBA attempt to shoot the three. They get a ton of attention, but it's not like Andre Drummond or DeAndre Jordan are hurting for minutes in the modern NBA. If you look at the highest-scoring centers in the NBA, 9 of the 22 players averaging 10+ points per game even attempt more than 1 3-pointer a game. For every Brook Lopez, there is a Steven Adams. Heck, Willie Cauley-Stein is a starter! The thing that is going to make or break Bolden is his willingness to improve. We have seen glimpses in the latter part of last season and the beginning of this year of what he can be. I hope he sees it himself, the growth the he is capable of.