Why are you wasting time here when you could be wasting it by listening to the latest episode of the DBR Podcast?
I couldn't take it. I went with Auburn and the under.
If you removed the names and the context and the hype from this matchup, #10 vs #1 on a neutral floor at +11 and o/u 170?! Those numbers would seem frankly insane.
An 11 point spread for a 9 point disparity in KP is craaaaaaaaazy rare. And I've got two years worth of Degenerate Data to prove it.
- Chillin
One thing I'll say is that it doesn't make much sense to me to bet both Duke AND the over. We all know that if Duke gets a lead, we're going to see stallball, AND if Duke has a big enough lead, we'll even see deep bench subs. Those two things completely neuter scoring. If you had the over against SDSU, you got a taste of what that's like. The game was sailing over for awhile but then the final 5 minutes or so when Duke called off the dogs got the game to go under, and by more than 1 possession, IIRC. It's either Duke OR under but not both, imo.
Now that I've posted that, watch Duke cover and go over, haha.
Duke opens at -7.5 tonight against Gonzaga. Another line that's frankly too big, but nowhere near the order of magnitude of -11.
KP #1 vs #6 on a neutral court should be a pick 'em. Or close to it. +/- 2, max, I'd expect. Maybe you stretch to +/- 3 in certain cases. -7.5 is another WOW number.
165 is also pretty wow on the o/u.
Basically, tonight is the same story they tried with Auburn, just a little less insane. For now...
- Chillin
Just 16 picks (8 on the spread and 8 on the O/U) for +3000 today.
I'm trying to bet on every spread and O/U this season just to gauge how well I would do if I started betting for real.
46-36-2 for far (23-20 for +500 on spread and 23-16-2 for +90 on O/U)
I waited patiently and just jumped at the under at 168.
If I had guts (spoiler alert: I don't), I'd take Gonzaga and the points as my other bet.
Didn't love any of the other ACC lines. I kicked around GTech and the spread but dropped it after further deliberation.
- Chillin
PS - Is BandAlum out after falling in the hole over 5000 simoleans?
I will never learn. I took UVA and the over at 124.
Am I the first one to be out?
Why don’t they list the Florida State - Villanova game? Or the Miami game?
I think BandAlum got you beat there. You win some, you lose some, eh? Even though this competition didn't go well for you, NYBri, you still own two prestigious Green Jackets from winning two ACC Conference Degenerate titles. It's really the Masters event of our degenerate tour. Preconference and NCAA tournament schedules can vary wildly from year to year, but the ACC Conference slate is close enough to the same year after year, kind of like how Augusta might modify the greens a bit but it's still The Masters.
I'm coming for my own Green Jacket starting in about a month, NYBri. You will not 3-peat.
P.S. Good calls on the Auburn game, Chillin'. I wasn't able to pull the trigger myself but leaned that way.
I can't get ahead...or behind. Just slowly getting eaten by the vig. They call me even Steven.
Even Steven.jpg