2018-19 Regular season picking contest (degenerate gamblers rejoice!!)

[ChillinDuke]

I took Duke even at -10.5 for these exact reasons. Playing the #8 team in the country on a neutral court and Vegas gives us 10.5 points? That's saying a lot about the confidence in Duke. I think Auburn gets intimidated 3/4 of the way through the first half and wilts under the big lights.

Objectively, I'd take the 10.5 and go with Auburn.

But I agree, LHL, it's hard to bet against Duke in this one.

I was gonna pick Duke at -8 or so. Now at 10.5. Woof. I may still pick us. Which says a lot.

- Chillin

[BandAlum83]

Duke opens at -10.5 on Auburn. Cha-ching.

I took Duke and the under (168.5)

89-78 gets me the double!

I'll predict 92-71 Duke with the win.

[ChillinDuke]

Objectively, I'd take the 10.5 and go with Auburn.

But I agree, LHL, it's hard to bet against Duke in this one.

I was gonna pick Duke at -8 or so. Now at 10.5. Woof. I may still pick us. Which says a lot.

- Chillin

Still at 10.5.

I'm struggling to pull the trigger. Every objective part of me thinks it makes no sense to take Duke, although my gut says Duke covers.

- Chillin

[brlftz]

So, umm, doesn't the above statement almost exactly describe the Kentucky game? I guess Kentucky wasn't as experienced in the backcourt, but they sure were in the frontcourt. Auburn simply does not have NBA kind of talent on their team. And while they are used to being the most versatile and athletic team on the floor, I suspect they will be overwhelmed when they realize Duke is far more athletic and versatile than they are.

If an experienced and athletic team can keep it close late in the game, that's what I'm calling game pressure. I wouldn't say we faced a whole lot of game pressure being up by 30+ in the second half.

[Green Wave Dukie]

Still at 10.5.

I'm struggling to pull the trigger. Every objective part of me thinks it makes no sense to take Duke, although my gut says Duke covers.

- Chillin

I went with my gut as soon as someone alerted us the line was out. I’ll just tell ya, gonna keep taking the Blue Devils until they don’t cover. Even though i agree, it’s too many points and against sound logic. But hey, it’s only points, right?

[JasonEvans]

I went with my gut as soon as someone alerted us the line was out. I’ll just tell ya, gonna keep taking the Blue Devils until they don’t cover. Even though i agree, it’s too many points and against sound logic. But hey, it’s only points, right?

We failed to cover against Army.

By the way, some Vegas casinos now have the line at 11.

[ChillinDuke]

We failed to cover against Army.

By the way, some Vegas casinos now have the line at 11.

I couldn't take it. I went with Auburn and the under.

If you removed the names and the context and the hype from this matchup, #10 vs #1 on a neutral floor at +11 and o/u 170?! Those numbers would seem frankly insane.

An 11 point spread for a 9 point disparity in KP is craaaaaaaaazy rare. And I've got two years worth of Degenerate Data to prove it.

- Chillin

[Troublemaker]

One thing I'll say is that it doesn't make much sense to me to bet both Duke AND the over. We all know that if Duke gets a lead, we're going to see stallball, AND if Duke has a big enough lead, we'll even see deep bench subs. Those two things completely neuter scoring. If you had the over against SDSU, you got a taste of what that's like. The game was sailing over for awhile but then the final 5 minutes or so when Duke called off the dogs got the game to go under, and by more than 1 possession, IIRC. It's either Duke OR under but not both, imo.

Now that I've posted that, watch Duke cover and go over, haha.

[ChillinDuke]

One thing I'll say is that it doesn't make much sense to me to bet both Duke AND the over. We all know that if Duke gets a lead, we're going to see stallball, AND if Duke has a big enough lead, we'll even see deep bench subs. Those two things completely neuter scoring. If you had the over against SDSU, you got a taste of what that's like. The game was sailing over for awhile but then the final 5 minutes or so when Duke called off the dogs got the game to go under, and by more than 1 possession, IIRC. It's either Duke OR under but not both, imo.

Now that I've posted that, watch Duke cover and go over, haha.

Over looks tough at this point. Would have to be a monster 2nd half. But if anyone can do it it's Auburn bombing threes.

- Chillin

[ChillinDuke]

Duke opens at -7.5 tonight against Gonzaga. Another line that's frankly too big, but nowhere near the order of magnitude of -11.

KP #1 vs #6 on a neutral court should be a pick 'em. Or close to it. +/- 2, max, I'd expect. Maybe you stretch to +/- 3 in certain cases. -7.5 is another WOW number.

165 is also pretty wow on the o/u.

Basically, tonight is the same story they tried with Auburn, just a little less insane. For now...

- Chillin

[left_hook_lacey]

Duke opens at -7.5 tonight against Gonzaga. Another line that's frankly too big, but nowhere near the order of magnitude of -11.

KP #1 vs #6 on a neutral court should be a pick 'em. Or close to it. +/- 2, max, I'd expect. Maybe you stretch to +/- 3 in certain cases. -7.5 is another WOW number.

165 is also pretty wow on the o/u.

Basically, tonight is the same story they tried with Auburn, just a little less insane. For now...

- Chillin

I'm picking Duke to cover, and picking the under. I'm a mad man.

A fool and his money...

Update: Down to -7 Duke now.

[jhmoss1812]

Just 16 picks (8 on the spread and 8 on the O/U) for +3000 today.

I'm trying to bet on every spread and O/U this season just to gauge how well I would do if I started betting for real.

46-36-2 for far (23-20 for +500 on spread and 23-16-2 for +90 on O/U)

[ChillinDuke]

I waited patiently and just jumped at the under at 168.

If I had guts (spoiler alert: I don't), I'd take Gonzaga and the points as my other bet.

Didn't love any of the other ACC lines. I kicked around GTech and the spread but dropped it after further deliberation.

- Chillin

PS - Is BandAlum out after falling in the hole over 5000 simoleans?

[Fish80]

I will never learn. I took UVA and the over at 124.

[jhmoss1812]

I will never learn. I took UVA and the over at 124.

Good call on the over. 66 + 59 = 125

[NYBri]

Am I the first one to be out?

[Fish80]

Why don’t they list the Florida State - Villanova game? Or the Miami game?

[jhmoss1812]

Why don’t they list the Florida State - Villanova game? Or the Miami game?

Both are now listed. It is frustrating that they aren't listed all at the same time though.

[Troublemaker]

Am I the first one to be out?

I think BandAlum got you beat there. You win some, you lose some, eh? Even though this competition didn't go well for you, NYBri, you still own two prestigious Green Jackets from winning two ACC Conference Degenerate titles. It's really the Masters event of our degenerate tour. Preconference and NCAA tournament schedules can vary wildly from year to year, but the ACC Conference slate is close enough to the same year after year, kind of like how Augusta might modify the greens a bit but it's still The Masters.

I'm coming for my own Green Jacket starting in about a month, NYBri. You will not 3-peat.

P.S. Good calls on the Auburn game, Chillin'. I wasn't able to pull the trigger myself but leaned that way.

[left_hook_lacey]

I can't get ahead...or behind. Just slowly getting eaten by the vig. They call me even Steven.

Even Steven.jpg