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  1. #1
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    Phase I, 2018-19 season

    The regular season is here at last! As I’m sure you are all aware, we will be opening the season Tuesday, November 6 in Indianapolis against the loathsome Kentucky Wildcats (I'll be at the game!). Phase I runs from the UK game through the Maui invitational, so it will surely include at least 2 or 3 games against some very high level teams, which should shed quite a bit of light on some of the more pressing questions that we have for this team early in the season:

    1. Health
    This is my first phase post, but I'll stick with tradition and throw health at the top of the pile. Javin is currently dealing with a stress reaction in one of his feet. That seems to be the only current injury on the roster, as Tre Jones, Cam Reddish, and Alex O’Connell all look to be fully recovered from their pre-season injuries. Notably, Javin has not played many minutes in either of the exhibition contests. Hopefully, this is not something that will need to be managed throughout the season if we are cautious with his usage in the early part of the schedule, in order to avoid any further setbacks. This is not a particularly deep roster, so any injuries to the main rotation players will have significant impact. Tre Jones is probably the one guy who we cannot afford to lose to injury for any amount of time, because his presence significantly raises the ceiling of the team on both ends of the court. I believe Tre and RJ will compete for the most minutes played, as long as both guys stay healthy. Knock on wood!!

    2. Marques Bolden
    Bolden is the physical manifestation of a question mark, so he gets his own section in this phase post. You just never know what you will get from Marques Bolden. He’s Jekyll & Hyde. When he’s playing at his best, he’s a game-changing force on both ends of the floor. However, as we all witnessed in the 3 Canada games, he also has a very low floor. So which Bolden will we get going forward?

    Bolden played 21 minutes in both of the exhibition games, and dominated in both games (first half of the VA Union game aside). It should be expected for a physically dominant big man to excel against this level of competition, but I think Bolden’s level of effort, especially in the Ferris State game was excellent, which is the big thing you want to see from him. He looked engaged and was very active in protecting the rim and knowing his role on offense. He even hit a three pointer, which I don’t think anybody expected to happen in his time at Duke. It’s all about consistency for Bolden. He won’t always play this well, but consistently giving this level of effort, playing good defense without fouling, and having the willingness to be a physical presence every single game will determine if Bolden has a breakout season or yet another disappointing one.

    Going forward, I think we can expect to see Bolden in the rotation, though his minutes will probably be subject to the opponent and the match up. If Bolden can give the team 12-18 good, high energy minutes per game, we become a much more versatile team. The very best version of this team requires Marques to be heavily involved. His size, length, and presence in the paint allow him to bring a unique skill set that no one else on the team can match. He will be needed against the best teams in the country.

    3. 3 point shooting
    If all you saw of this team was the two exhibition games, you would probably think that Duke is a lights out shooting team. In the 2 games against Virginia Union and Ferris State, Duke shot a blistering 24 of 53 from deep, good for 45.3%. However, we were pretty mediocre from deep in all 3 of the Canada games. In Canada, Duke played without Alex O’Connell (who is probably the best pure catch-and-shoot guy we have), Cam Reddish, who has a great looking jumper, and Tre Jones, who isn’t a terrific shooter himself, but is very good at setting teammates up for better looks from 3. So which one of these results is the “real” Duke? It’s probably somewhere in the middle. RJ shot extremely well from deep against Ferris State and VA Union, but his jumper was somewhat off in Canada. He will probably be a bit streaky, but I think we should be mostly fine if we are able to shoot somewhere between 33% and 38% as a team, given how good our best players are at scoring inside the 3 point line.

    4. Who is in the rotation?
    Even without seeing a single game that counts to this point, there’s very little doubt that the 4 major freshmen will lead the team in minutes. They are going to play all the minutes they can handle. You’ll notice I’m not going to talk very much about those 4 guys here, because this section is about questions heading into this phase, and the only question (in terms of the rotation) is who will fill in the rest of the minutes after them.

    Fortunately, with UK and an absolutely loaded Maui Invitational field coming up, we’re going to get answers very soon.

    We know Coach K likes to play extremely short rotations in the games that matter, often cutting it down to 7 or sometimes even just 6 guys whom he really trusts, which means there will be minutes for only 2 or 3 more guys in high pressure games. Here are the 4 players who I believe will contend for these minutes:

    Marques Bolden: Already discussed at length above, but Marques will obviously be a matchup play against teams with elite size. But I also see him having the shortest leash of any of these guys. Any blunder could land him on the bench in a hurry.

    Javin DeLaurier: Despite his limited playing time in the two exhibition games, I still believe Javin is the favorite to be the 5th starter, though that may not happen until he is fully healthy. The coaches seem to be limiting his playing time due to his foot injury, and also possibly trying to boost Bolden’s confidence. When Javin is playing with those 4 freshmen, I believe that will be Duke’s best defensive lineup, and it also allows us to play at a very high pace, which benefits our offensive talent. Both Javin and Coach K have been talking up Javin’s jump shot, but I remain skeptical.

    If Javin does develop a jumper, it could open up some new lineup options, such as having him on the floor with Marques, but we’ll need to see much more consistency from Javin’s jump shot before that can even be considered. We’re all still waiting on Amile’s improved jumper, too.

    Jack White: Until this season, Jack White has been mostly an afterthought. Most Duke fans probably believed that he would be another Marty Pocius: mainly a practice player, who would see occasional mop up minutes in blow outs. Things have changed for the Aussie in his Junior season, as Coach K has been on record saying that Jack White will play rotation minutes.

    I’m a big fan of Jack’s fit with the 4 freshmen starters. He’s always been a no-nonsense type of player who isn’t going to wow you with any particular aspect of his game, but he always makes smart decisions, commits very few mistakes, never needs the ball, and does all of the dirty work. He’s big and strong, more athletic than he looks, and is capable of playing the 3 or 4. The addition of a perimeter jump shot has thrust him into the discussion as a possible rotation player, and his playing time will probably come down to how well he shoots it. Without a reliable jumper, Jack is close to a zero on offense (though he is a good offensive rebounder and a decent passer), so hitting shots will be crucial for him.

    Alex O’Connell: Alex has looked pretty good in both exhibition contests, despite playing very few minutes. He’s going to be the best offensive player coming off the bench, and in most cases, would probably be the 6th man. However, considering the elite level of offensive talent we have in the starting lineup, I think Alex is the guy who will get the short end of the stick in some games.

    As a wing, he’s competing for minutes with RJ and Cam, who are obviously going to play a LOT. His skill set as a scorer also overlaps heavily with those two guys, so unless one of those guys is on the bench, Alex doesn't add a ton of value to the lineup. You could throw him out there as the 3rd guard with those 2 guys, but Tre Jones is just going to be a better option on the perimeter in that scenario. If you throw him out there with all four of the freshman starters, you end up with an ultra-small lineup with Zion at center and Cam at the 4. I don’t see us resorting to that lineup unless we are trailing by a huge margin and need maximum offense on the floor.

    Alex is much more talented than Jack, but I think the way the team was constructed is going to result in Jack playing more minutes, as long as Jack keeps shooting it well. I could be way off here, but that’s just how I see it playing out.

    5. Team Chemistry
    We always get the coach spiel: “These guys are really connected and are friends on and off the court,” etc. etc., but sometimes, being friends doesn’t always translate to on-court chemistry. Last year’s team was a great example of a team where the pieces didn’t quite fit. I won’t speak to the matter of guys having individual agendas, which Chris Spatola alluded to in the exhibition broadcasts, but there was clearly something that didn’t quite click with last year’s team (even though we were a Grayson bank shot from the Final 4). This year’s team has looked very together thus far, but we will need to see how they deal with adversity before making any judgments.

    6. Offense
    For the most part, we have looked very good on offense. We probably should always look great on offense against the level of competition we’ve faced thus far, but there are some very encouraging signs that this team will ultimately become a top 10 offense in the country. Even though we haven’t played anyone remotely resembling an elite D1 defense, I think there is generally a high level of confidence in RJ and Zion’s ability to score against elite athletes. Both of those guys are absolute freaks of nature when it comes to playing through contact and getting to the foul line. RJ and Zion will lead the team in scoring, and they will do it very efficiently.

    Cam is also an outstanding all-around talent, but has been less aggressive than RJ and Zion, opting instead of to be more of a facilitator and spot up shooter through these 2 exhibition contests. However, I think Cam could also take over a game if needed. All three of them could be legit #1 options on offense for just about any D1 school. That is some serious firepower.

    Tre Jones has been everything we had hoped for in a point guard thus far. He's been very sharp so far with his decision making and is as steady as they come. I don't want to put too many expectations on him (as if no one is doing that already, with the constant Tyus comparisons), but I believe we're going to be a very dangerous team come tournament time with a point guard like Tre.

    Our assist to made FG ratio against Virginia Union and Ferris St. was 56 to 84 (67%). Last year’s team did very well in this category, assisting on 57.6% of made FGs, but this team appears to be on an even higher level. Before the preseason games, I figured with Tre Jones, Cam Reddish, and RJ Barrett, we would have 3 guys who could initiate the offense and were all good to very good passers. That part has held true, but now I think Zion can also be added to that list. With those 4 guys on the floor, any one of them could grab a rebound and take the ball themselves in transition and make a play for themselves or a teammate. This is an EXCEPTIONAL ball handling and passing team.

    I don’t have the possession stats from the two games, but by the eye test, it certainly seems like we will try to play as fast as we possibly can, while also being hyper aggressive on defense to generate turnovers. This team is dominant in transition, scoring 71 points off of turnovers, and 38 fast break points in the 2 exhibition games. Zion, RJ, Javin, and Cam are all dynamic transition finishers, and all 4 freshmen starters are capable of pushing the ball and making the unselfish play to get easy dunks and layups. This has been a relative area of weakness the past few seasons, so in contrast to recent years, there should be more of an emphasis on gambling in the passing lanes to create more turnovers and open court situations.

    7. Defense
    This is probably the biggest mystery to this point, because it’s hard to tell how good we can be against really good offensive teams when we’ve only played against low level talent. There doesn’t appear to be any question that we will be playing mostly man to man, but the youth of the team is always a limiting factor to effectiveness of the traditional Duke M2M scheme. Getting Javin back to full strength will be a major key for the defense, because he allows us to switch on just about every screen.

    Our defense has looked good at times, and also bad at times, especially defending in transition. But overall, we’ve played pretty well, limiting our 2 over matched opponents to a combined 31.9% shooting from the floor, and just 25.6% from three. Though it’s worth pointing out those stats are boosted by the absolute drubbing that we handed Ferris St, who shot just 19 for 74 (6 for 29 from 3).

    In the half court, our length and quickness has produced a solid number of steals, and forcing 23 turnovers in both games, but again, these numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt due to the level of competition. On an individual level, Zion, RJ, Cam, and Tre are all potentially very good defenders. They all move their feet very well and have great athleticism to pair with solid anticipation skills. Ultimately, the quality of our defense is going to depend on how well the entire team gels as a defensive unit, and also to a large degree, how well Bolden plays, because he is our best rim protector. Javin looks to be the leader of the team defensively, and he should be the most consistent player on that end of the floor.

    8. Joey Baker Redshirt?
    I did not include Joey Baker as a possible rotation player, but if he decides to play this year, rather than take a redshirt, he is definitely in the mix, as a wing forward with some offensive upside. He’s also a nice insurance policy if anyone (God forbid) has to miss some time. Most of us assumed all offseason that Joey would redshirt, but after having seen him play quite well in Canada, and get some good minutes in these exhibition games, I would not be surprised if Joey ends up playing this year in a very small “Grayson Allen freshmen year” type of role, that can potentially grow if necessary.

    9. Youth and Inexperience
    Once again, this will be youngest Duke team of all time. This was also the case last year, and we nearly had a Final Four team, so I think in the long term, our youth should not be too great of a concern. There will be some freshman mistakes, and surely some frustrating losses along the way, but we should all have confidence that Coach K will have these guys ready to compete at the highest levels when it really matters.

    This season's team looks to be one of the most talented Duke teams of all time, with 3 guys who have a chance to become NBA All-Stars at some point in their careers. With versatility and elite talent at every position, and a true point guard running the offense, the potential of this team is through the roof. Let's get #6! GO DUKE!!!

    I'm going to wrap up my portion of the post there, but my partner for this phase post, CDu, should continue this discussion with his analysis of our games and match ups during this phase some time later this week, so look forward to that
    Last edited by kAzE; 10-30-2018 at 12:03 PM.

  2. #2
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
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    Mount Kisco, NY
    Great effort, kAzE.

    I am immediately interested in the following aspects of these categories:

    -Offense/Chemistry
    Does a natural pecking order get established? Right now, it seems like we are hunting mismatches with RJ and Zion in full attack mode when they spot one. I really want to see how Cam meshes with those guys and how he balances scoring with passing. I, too, am hoping we can connect on 35%+ from 3.

    -Bolden
    I was definitely throwing dirt on him after Canada, but I, too, have seen a change in him these past two games akin to what you describe. I also think his hands have suddenly gotten better. I think it's telling that he wasn't named a Captain, but there are signs of life!

    Finally, I always like to watch K. The end is coming, enjoy him fully while we can.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
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    Winston Salem, NC
    Good job Kaze on your Phase I post. Just a couple of observations:

    Javin: I want to see the junior captain stay out of foul trouble and most of all I want to see him healthy. He has a chance to be a great addition to our rotation because Javin has the tools to be a great defender. Anything he can add to the offense is the cherry on top of the pie.


    Bolden: Another player I hope can play injury free this season. So far in his Duke career, we don't know just how good he can be.


    Looking forward to the tipoff. GoDuke!

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post

    8. Joey Baker Redshirt?

    ...I would not be surprised if Joey ends up playing this year in a very small “Grayson Allen freshmen year” type of role, that can potentially grow if necessary.
    kAzE guarantees a National Championship in his very first Phase post!
    Bob Green

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bob Green View Post
    kAzE guarantees a National Championship in his very first Phase post!
    Good one Bob! And great post Kaze!! Very nicely done for your first ever Phase Post!

    Regarding Baker... the kid has chops but I don't see him playing much if at all once conference play starts. Too many guys in front of him at his position. He struggled on defense in both exhibition games especially guarding the ball. I like his chops and his offensive abilities though. Tough as nails with better hops than I expected and a sweet stroke. He is a year away from playing in the tough games though.

  6. #6
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    Thanks Kaze!!

    I'm kinda getting the feeling that K uses Bolden like testing if a spaghetti noodle's done, throw him/one out there and see if he/it sticks. Certainly a short leash, but at least give him some 1st half action to see if he's brought his better game. Then adjust from there. And I'm talking about giving him 4/5 minutes (or more) in each 1st half, not just once or twice. Gonna be an interesting Tuesday night with it also being election day!!

  7. #7
    Nice first Phase post, kAzE. Well done.

    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    That seems to be the only current injury on the roster...
    I thought I heard Cam was playing with a broken rib. Is that not true?

    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    I don’t have the possession stats from the two games...
    76.6 possessions against Virginia Union and 85.9 possessions against Ferris State. Fast and (way) faster.

    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    7. Defense
    This is probably the biggest mystery to this point, because it’s hard to tell how good we can be against really good offensive teams when we’ve only played against low level talent.
    I agree we can't tell, and even the advanced stats aren't worth much here, due to the low level of competition. But my eye test likes what I'm seeing on the defensive end. I'm cautiously optimistic.

    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    9. Youth and Inexperience
    Once again, this will be youngest Duke team of all time. This was also the case last year, and we nearly had a Final Four team, so I think in the long term, our youth should not be too great of a concern.
    Again, I agree. I'm not concerned about this at all. The totality of a player's basketball ability is a combination of talent and experience. These frosh are so talented, that they're up there with anyone regardless of experience. And probably the most important thing you get from experience -- the ability to know what to do without thinking about it -- isn't really a factor with the extremely high basketball IQ these guys have displayed so far. As far as the tired trope that freshmen can't play defense, I don't agree in general and specifically (as I said above) so far I'm pleased with what I'm seeing on the defensive end.

    Honestly, my biggest concern for this team is health. If any of our top four guys get hurt for any length of time (I'm knocking furiously on what appears to be wood veneer), we're a completely different team, and not in a good way.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    I thought I heard Cam was playing with a broken rib. Is that not true?
    Yes, my bad . . . I probably should have noted this. Cam sustained a "displaced fracture to the tenth rib" on Oct. 16, about 2 weeks ago, and he has been playing/practicing through that issue, as soon as 3 days after the injury. He also had a foot/ankle issue earlier in the off season which prevented him from playing in the Canada games, but it is something that he has now fully recovered from.

    On the plus side, he didn't appear to be limited in any way in the 3 games (CTC included) we have seen him play. He played 46 minutes in the two exhibition games, which was 4th on the team after Tre, RJ and Zion. Cam attempted 14 free throws against Ferris State, so he clearly wasn't avoiding contact or playing any differently than he normally would.

    It will definitely be something to monitor going forward, but it doesn't seem like something that will affect his availability for the season opener.

    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Honestly, my biggest concern for this team is health. If any of our top four guys get hurt for any length of time (I'm knocking furiously on what appears to be wood veneer), we're a completely different team, and not in a good way.
    Yeah, absolutely. That's why health is always #1.

    However, I think Alex could probably fill in for a game or two if RJ or Cam has to miss time for any reason. Obviously, it's still a step down, but the one place where we do have some quality depth is on the wing.

    If Zion or Tre has to miss any games, we would be in some trouble. I think Cam would probably have to play some power forward if Zion is out, and while I do like Goldwire as Tre's backup, he's not really someone who I would feel comfortable running the show against ACC teams.
    Last edited by kAzE; 10-31-2018 at 12:32 PM.

  9. #9
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    Feb 2007
    Excellent Phase post, kAzE! Sometimes the sign of a nice Phase post is that there isn't much to say in response because you've said it all or close to all.

    The only thing I'll add re: defense, having watched the Ferris St game last night, is that we're varying how we're playing ball screens based on whether Marques or Javin is in the game. With Marques, we're hard-hedging, and with Javin, we're icing or switching. That's... sensible. While I probably still prefer a deep drop when Marques is in the game, he has sometimes shown some good hedging skills over the past couple of years. And Javin should be able to handle his responsibilities as well.

  10. #10
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    This Ringer article is a good complement to this Phase post

    "This Year’s Duke Basketball Team Is a Coach K Greatest Hits Compilation"
    With arguably the greatest recruiting class of all time, headlined by Zion Williamson, R.J. Barrett, and Cam Reddish, the Blue Devils could look more like an Olympic superteam than an average blue-chip team in the one-and-done era

    https://www.theringer.com/college-ba...tt-cam-reddish

    "There’s no way to know what Zion, Barrett, and Reddish will become at the next level, but their skill sets fit perfectly with the direction the sport is headed. An NBA team with all three might be the best team in the league in a decade. They have the chance to do something special as teenagers. They might not be on another team with this much talent for a long time."

  11. #11
    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    Y
    However, I think Alex could probably fill in for a game or two if RJ or Cam has to miss time for any reason. Obviously, it's still a step down, but the one place where we do have some quality depth is on the wing.

    If Zion or Tre has to miss any games, we would be in some trouble.
    I agree with these assessments...as Tre is the only pure point guard on the roster that has big time skill, and Zion is the only thing like Zion on our roster, or anywhere on the planet for that matter.

  12. #12
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    The more I inhale preseason coverage, the more I am getting concerned about a potential Phase category to track...

    HYPE
    This year's freshman class is REALLY being lauded...the best class since the Fab Five, RJ Player of the Year Favorite, RJ, Zion and Cam no doubt top 5 projected NBA draft picks etc. etc. By setting these insane expectations, there is surely to be a backlash when they stumble. Are they strong enough mentally to handle all the attention?

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    The more I inhale preseason coverage, the more I am getting concerned about a potential Phase category to track...

    HYPE
    This year's freshman class is REALLY being lauded...the best class since the Fab Five, RJ Player of the Year Favorite, RJ, Zion and Cam no doubt top 5 projected NBA draft picks etc. etc. By setting these insane expectations, there is surely to be a backlash when they stumble. Are they strong enough mentally to handle all the attention?
    I think this is a good point. Zion and R.J. seem like the kind of personalities who can handle it but playing at Duke with all the scrutiny will be a whole new level. It might not be the worst thing if this team stumbled early (well, for the players) to lower expectations and remove any entitlement. Still, I really like the makeup of this team and think we have the right combination of skill, drive and confidence to handle the pressure.

  14. #14
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    Great post, KaZe, and corresponding sporks have been distributed.

    Givony, ESPN's resident NBA draft guru and quasi scout, has released his updated (or new) 2019 NBA draft prospects list--it seems our team claims three of the top-4 prospects (and Tobacco Road lays claim to four of the top-4). http://www.espn.com/nba/draft/bestavailable (also, Tre Jones is listed at No. 53)

    A couple of points to add--one from the article, one I think could be added to the P1 post:

    - The scouting report notes that all three of our top guys (Tre Jones excluded, despite being one of the, if not the single, most important players on the team) have the ability to be plus-defenders. Cam's notes, as we've all heard, he's prone to lapses of effort, but let's withhold judgment on that.

    - The other nugget that, I think, deserves some attention: free throw shooting. Everyone mentions 3-pt shooting as a potential area for improvement (or weakness, if you don't want to be diplomatic), but I think as important is whether this team will be average or above-average at the stripe. I'm too lazy to double check FT percentages for our likely top minute-getters, but I recall mostly in the 60s (RJ & Zion). I doubt that climbs with Javin and Marques. That could be a point of concern/frustration for us armchair analysts watching this team. Just throwing it out there.
    Last edited by English; 11-02-2018 at 05:19 PM. Reason: Words.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    4. Who is in the rotation?
    As a wing, he’s (AOC) competing for minutes with RJ and Cam, who are obviously going to play a LOT. His skill set as a scorer also overlaps heavily with those two guys, so unless one of those guys is on the bench, Alex doesn't add a ton of value to the lineup. You could throw him out there as the 3rd guard with those 2 guys, but Tre Jones is just going to be a better option on the perimeter in that scenario. If you throw him out there with all four of the freshman starters, you end up with an ultra-small lineup with Zion at center and Cam at the 4. I don’t see us resorting to that lineup unless we are trailing by a huge margin and need maximum offense on the floor.
    I almost feel like this concept needs it's own Phase segment....ZION AT THE 5

    Will K give the NBA draftniks want they want and go small ball with Zion at the 5? Would AOC be the logical 5th man in that rotation, or would Jack? The exhibition games were such routes that I didn't really pay attention to see how often, if it all, he played line-ups with Zion but without Marquese or Javin (or JRob).

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by Billy Dat View Post
    I almost feel like this concept needs it's own Phase segment...ZION AT THE 5

    Will K give the NBA draftniks want they want and go small ball with Zion at the 5? Would AOC be the logical 5th man in that rotation, or would Jack? The exhibition games were such routes that I didn't really pay attention to see how often, if it all, he played line-ups with Zion but without Marquese or Javin (or JRob).
    It certainly is something to watch. I think the more center Zion plays, the more minutes there are for Alex.

  17. #17
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    Yep

    Quote Originally Posted by kAzE View Post
    It certainly is something to watch. I think the more center Zion plays, the more minutes there are for Alex.
    And the more open the court becomes for Duke’s slashers. Plus, Coach K tends to go small when the going gets tough (although can any lineup with Zion be called small?).

  18. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by MChambers View Post
    And the more open the court becomes for Duke’s slashers. Plus, Coach K tends to go small when the going gets tough (although can any lineup with Zion be called small?).
    When Zion has the ball, it looks really small, hence “small ball.”

  19. #19
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    Hmm . . . CDu was supposed to post something here before the UK game, but I haven't heard from him at all since the beginning of last week.

    Hopefully everything is OK with him. Especially hope he was able to watch that Kentucky game, because damn that was fun.

  20. #20
    Nice post Kaze.

    While I'd hardly say it is definitive, I think after Tuesday we can say all signs point to yes for Q#8.

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