Phase I, 2018-19 season

[kAzE]

Nice post Kaze.

While I'd hardly say it is definitive, I think after Tuesday we can say all signs point to yes for Q#8.

Coach K was asked about Joey specifically in the post-game presser. He kind of avoided answering the question directly, and instead talked about how Jack and Alex played really well.

I think he was implying that if Jack and Alex continue to do what they did against Kentucky off the bench, and (knock on wood again) nobody gets hurt, then Joey will probably redshirt.

And I'll win a pie bet. (Jack vs Joey Baker, total minutes)

[CDu]

So, first of all, thanks to kAzE for taking care of the primary effort on the Phase I report, and doing a great job of it. The original plan was for kAzE to prepare the key questions (which he did) and for me to break down the opponents' squads for the phase (which I have not done until now).

Secondly, I apologize for the delay in my contributions. Between work travel and me trying frantically to wrap up the final steps in becoming Dr. CDu (of the Ph variety, not the M or J variety), I've just not had a break long enough to do my part.

With that said, here is a breakdown of the three most likely opponents in the Maui Invitational. Starting with the only of the three that we are guaranteed to play (San Diego State).

San Diego State (2-0, KenPom #57)

The Aztecs are a defensive-minded team that is just okay offensively. They are a relatively (for a mid-major type of school) young team, though they are talented. Their backcourt is experienced, which helps, and they have a lot of bigs to rotate. But it isn't a terribly deep team by any means.

Center: The Aztecs don't start a true center, favoring a guard/heavy lineup with two forwards. They do bring three centers off the bench though. Freshman Nathan Mensah (6'10", 225lb from Ghana) gets the most minutes of their 3-headed backup center monster. Mensah is tall, lanky, and athletic. He is a very good shotblocker but rebounds just okay (as is common for shotblockers). Mensah is a freshman, and as such he may prove to be foul prone against better competition (the Aztecs have played a couple of bad teams so far). Behind Mensah is Nolan Narain (6'10", 230lb redshirt junior from Canada). Narain was a 3-star recruit out of high school, so he had some expectations. But injuries and bad luck have limited his career to this point, with just over 300 minutes played coming into this year. He is a good athlete and has range out to the 3pt line. He's quite foul prone though, as evidenced by his 5 fouls in just 24 minutes this year. The third center coming off the bench is Joel Mensah (6'10", 215lb freshman from Ghana). Ironically, the two are not related (at least not closely related). The lesser Mensah is a rawer, skinnier, less talented version of Nathan Mensah. He plays sparingly, and will be overmatched if he sees the floor against us.

Forwards: The Aztecs are quite talented and diverse at forward. The starters exemplify this by themselves. Jalen McDaniels (6'10", 195lb sophomore) is the headliner, a long, lanky combo forward somewhat reminiscent of Jonathan Isaac from FSU. McDaniels uses his length to score and rebound inside, but he's not a bad shooter from the perimeter (50% on 4 3s so far and shot 78.8% from the FT line last year). McDaniels flirted with the NBA last year, and may very well go pro next summer. He is certainly on NBA scouts' radars. Paired with McDaniels long and lean is the short (relatively) and stout Matt Mitchell (6'6", 240lb soph). Despite the differences in their frames, Mitchell's production is actually really comparable to McDaniels' other than rebounding. Both are extremely active and athletic (in different ways), and both are highly productive players. I'd guess that Mitchell will get the dubious honor of guarding Williamson given his size and athleticism. This will be one of the few times where Williamson will be matched up on a guy who isn't totally overwhelmed by either his size or athleticism. Don't get me wrong: Williamson is still notably better in all aspects (skills, strength, athleticism), but it's not as big of a mismatch as most of his matchups will be. Both McDaniels and Mitchell are also capable passers, second and third on the team in assists. Behind these two (aside from the triad of centers) is freshman Aguek Arop (6'6", 220lb). Arop is a low-skilled, high energy/effort guy who rebounds and fouls well but provides little else.

Wings: Jordan Schakel (6'6", 200lb soph) leads the wing group for the Aztecs. Schakel is a shooter first and foremost. He's not very skilled at putting the ball on the floor or passing, but he can certainly hit the 3. If SDSU gives us trouble, his 3pt shot may have a fair amount to do with it. Alongside Schakel is Jeremy Helmsley (6'3", 175lb senior). Helmsley is a good shooter and a very experienced player, having passed the 1,000 point career mark last year for the Aztecs. He's another guy who can hit the open 3, and isn't terrible with the ball in his hands either. Helmsley will give some assistance in running the offense in the rare moments when their PG needs a break.

Guards: The guy that runs the show is Devin Watson (6'1", 185lb senior transfer from San Fran). Watson is a score-first PG who is capable of scoring at all 3 levels. He's not the most careful with the ball, but he's capable of wowing with passes when he is is dialed in. The danger for him is trying to do too much, especially in a matchup against a much more talented opponent. But Watson is a terrific player and capable of punishing a young defense. Behind Watson is Adam Seiko (6'3", 195lb frosh). Seiko doesn't play much (Watson rarely exits), but he's a tenacious defender and really strong and athletic. He's pretty much a nonfactor as a scorer, but can impact the game in other ways when he's in there.

I'll add the profiles for Auburn (our likely second-round opponent), Gonzaga (a potential championship game opponent if we're fortunate), and Arizona (if we wind up in the 3rd-place game) shortly.

[CDu]

So, it's a bit silly that our likely second-round opponent is Auburn. That's a bit of an oopsy by the bracket makers, and probably one of laziness in looking at the names on the front of the jersey only. They are easily the 2nd or 3rd best team in this field, and a legitimate top-10 team. Considering that we should realistically be the top seed, the rightful game 2 in our bracket would have been Arizona (who looks to be in for a down year). But, alas...

Auburn is good. They are well-coached, experienced, and talented. They have size and have good scoring punch from the perimeter. They'll be a tough opponent if we face them. The Tigers play fast and well on both ends of the floor. They are a legitimate Final Four threat.

Centers: like San Diego State, Auburn doesn't actually start a center. But they have a very talented one coming off the bench. Austin Wiley (6'11", 260lb redshirt sophomore) almost went to the NBA this past summer, but given the strength of that class he wisely chose to return). Wiley has had an interesting college career: a former top-20 recruit, he graduated high school early and enrolled for the spring at Aubrn in 2017, giving the Tigers a productive freshman season. He was expected to be a major part of their team last year, but was ruled ineligible for the season. Then, he put his name in the NBA draft before ultimately withdrawing. So, here he is, unexpectedly still in college. He's gotten off to a slow start this year, but the talent is there. Wiley is long and skilled around the basket, and is a decent shotblocker. He's a bit weak on the glass given his size, but he's an NBA talent for sure. The Tigers don't really play another center.

Forwards: The Tigers have a solid trio of forwards led by Chuma Okeke (6'8", 230lb soph). Okeke is a bit of a do-everything guy for the Tigers. He's strong and athletic, but is also a very good perimeter shooter. Though he doesn't lead the Tigers in any category, Okeke is top-3 in pretty much all of them. Along with Okeke are Anfernee McLemore (6'7", 220lb junior) and Horace Spencer (6'8", 225lb senior). McLemore is a high-energy, highly athletic, dirty work guy. He does, however, have a bit of range, hitting 18 3s last year. But his calling card is shotblocking and rebounding, both of which he does at a really high level. Spencer is even more rugged but less skilled. He leads the team in rebounding, but any shots he takes more than 5 feet from the rim are... questionable.

Wings: The Tigers have a trio of talented wings as well. Bryce Brown (6'3", 195lb senior) is the headliner. Brown is a good all-around guard, playing well on both ends of the floor. He flirted with the NBA last spring as well, but returned to school. There is a good chance he'll wind up the team's leading scorer this year. He gets most of his buckets from the perimeter, shooting over 37% for his career from 3. Samir Doughty (6'4", 195lb junior transfer from VCU) is currently their leading scorer. He is a good ballhandler and is strong at driving to the rim. However, he appears to have developed into a decent 3pt threat (41.7% so far this year), which if it holds makes him extremely dangerous. He is also a ballhawk, averaging 2.3 steals per game in just over 20mpg so far. Terrific athlete who appears to be finding his skills with age. Last but not necessarily least is Malik Dunbar (6'6", 230lb senior JuCo transfer). Dunbar is more of a wing forward than the other two, who are more combo guards. He's big and physical. I don't doubt that he'll see some time guarding Williamson as well. Dunbar is far less skilled than his smaller wing teammates, getting most of his buckets from his size/athleticism/tenacity rather than finesse.

Guards: The guy that makes the engine run is Jared Hunter (5'11", 175lb junior). Hunter is small but very skilled and athletic. He's dynamic with the ball in his hands and is a terrific passer. He's also a streaky but capable 3pt shooter. The biggest weakness in Hunter's game is that he isn't a strong finisher inside the arc. But he draws fouls and hits enough from deep and does so well running the offense that this is a minor quibble. He's a really talented PG. Technically, Brown will provide a lot of the lifting as a backup PG, but the nominal backup is J'Von McCormick (6'0", 175lb junior JuCo transfer). McCormick is athletic and a pesky defender, but less polished offensively. He'll play a smaller role as a fill-in as needed for the Tigers, who will play 8-9 deep as Bruce Pearl likes to be aggressive.

[CDu]

So the third part in this installment is the Zags. As always, Mark Few has put together a terrific team with players from all over the globe. This year's installment is led by his latest and most far-reaching find from Japan. It is impressive how far Few goes outside of the normal recruiting circles to fill out his squads.

The Zags are coming off a bittersweet season in which they were upset in the Sweet-16 by FSU. They return a very talented, experienced team that has added a few new faces to the mix. They are extremely well-coached and effective on both ends of the floor. It's an impressive group that Few has put together this year, although we won't see it at full-strength in Maui (more on that later). If they were healthy, I'd basically guarantee they'd reach the final considering their bracket. Even still, I'd be shocked if they don't make it to the championship game. They're really good.

Centers: Stop me if you've heard this before, but Gonzaga doesn't play a true center in their starting lineup. They don't really even have one on the roster at all. They will have a trio of very talented PFs though that will share time against opposing centers as needed.

Forwards: The star of the forward group is Rui Hachimura (6'8", 230lb junior from Japan). Hachimura is a talented low-block scorer with range and versatility, although his 3pt shot needs work. But he's absolutely dynamic inside the arc, and Gonzaga will rely heavily on him for scoring. Especially since their other veteran star Killian Tillie (6'10" 220lb junior from France) is out for several weeks. Tillie is the yin to Hachimura's yang, providing a fabulous threat from 3pt range (nearly 48% career from outside the arc). The two will be a terrific one-two punch for Gonzaga once Tillie returns, and their size and versatility allow Gonzaga to compete with the big boys. In Tillie's place is Brandon Clarke (6'8", 230lb junior transfer from San Diego St, coincidentally enough). Clarke is a high-energy, highly-athletic forward who does al the dirty work. He will lead the team in rebounds, blocks, and probably dunks this year. He's not nearly as skilled as the other two forwards, but he's a dynamo athletically and a high-effort player that gets results through hard work. The third in the foreign triumvirate of Bulldog forwards is Filip Petrusev (6'11", 225lb frosh from Serbia). Petrusev is sort of a less polished version of Tillie, quite capable of hitting the three.

Wings: The Bulldogs are really strong at the starting wing spots with Zach Norvell, Jr (6'5", 205lb soph) and Corey Kispert (6'6", 215lb soph). Norvell, Jr is the NBA prospect, a complete weapon as a wing scorer. Strong, athletic, a good shooter, and extremely confident, he's a dynamic scorer who will be unlikely to stay four years. Norvell is also a strong rebounder for a guard/wing. There isn't much this guy can't do well. Kispert is sort of a poor man's Kyle Singler: smart, rugged, high-IQ player that gets the most out of his athletic ability. He isn't nearly as talented as Singler was obviously, but that's kind of the image I have of him. A hard player not to like if he's on your team. Good role player with a good 3pt shot. Rounding out the wings is Jeremy Jones (6'5", 205lb senior transfer from Rice). Jones is a true role player whose job is to provide energy and defense, and he provides little if anything offensively. He'll play sparingly and only in case of emergency, as the Zags can role out any combination of their wings, forwards, and combo guards instead.

Guards: Josh Perkins (6'3", 190lb redshirt senior) is the team captain and leader. He has been a steady player seemingly since day one in Spokane, though in more of a supporting role in previous years. Last year, he stepped into the spotlight a bit more, and continued his solid though unspectacular play. This year, he's off to a good start everywhere but 3pt range, though I expect that to come around as he's been roughly a 40% 3pt shooter most of his career. He'll play 30+ minutes and run the show for the Zags, and he's one of the better PGs in all of college basketball. He won't wow you in any phase of the game, but his size, strength, and skills are evident in totality. Just a solid, talented veteran PG. And as a bonus, he's quite capable of playing off the ball as well. Behind him is Geno Crandall (6'3", 175lb grad transfer from North Dakota). Crandall was a star at UND, as a lead guard he impressed enough to get a spot on the Zags. He's a great change of pace for Perkins, and the Zags don't really miss a beat whenever Perkins needs to sit, or when they want to give Perkins a break from running the offense.

The Zags have the talent, the experience, and the versatility to make a deep run into March/April. They won't be at full strength in this tournament, unfortunately. But they'll still be a tough out for anyone in the field, and likely will play for the title in spite of being short-handed.

[Saratoga2]

Well phase I is over and on we move. One aspect that became clear in Phase I is that White is the ist sub at the wing/SF position and that O'Connell will be getting token minutes in competitive games which includes all of the ACC games and the Indiana and Texas Tech games. Clearly Zion, Cam and RJ were always ahead of Jack and Alex but Jack's play through Phase I showed him as able to provide much needed defense and rebounding and a modicum of stability to the team. Too bad for Alex in a way as he can provide mid range and 3 point shooting which is also needed on this team.

Alex is now listed at 6'6" and 183#, has length, quickness, a decent handle, shoots well, has good hops and does get in for rebounds and deflects passes well on defense. Otherwise, a good fit for big guard or wing. On another ACC team he might well get significant minutes or even start. Probably not for Duke, barring injuries or something else unforseen. Joey Baker is in same boat, only less experienced and behind Alex and probably a red shirt at the end of the season.

I'm interested in Alex so looked at his strengths and weaknesses offensively and defensively and asked myself what he might do differently to become a more effective player as the season wears on.

Offensively he is like Cam, RJ and Zion in that he can bring the ball up the floor quickly and can usually make decent passes. He doesn't have the drive to take the ball directly to the basket as the others might but he does have an above aaverage pull up jumper and 3 point shot, something Zion, RJ and Jack don't have as much of at this point.

What I find to be negative about Alex offense is that he will get the ball and instead of making a feint towards the basket or looking to get the ball inside, he quickly passes back to his teammate without putting pressure on the defense. Alex is too deferential and needs to be coached into trying to create opportunities. Its hard to fault his teammate when he ignores him in the offense as what Alex does just tends to waste clock.

Defensively, coach K has indicated that Alex is making mistakes and he sees him as somewhat of a liability on the floor at this point. I watched him closely when he is in the game and don't see as much of a problem there. Cam and RJ are having more lapses than I see from Alex and it is to be expected as they are true freshmen. Alex seems to play his man closely, switches well, gets his hands on passes and isn't afraid to stick his nose in on rebounds.

So I see Alex relegated to token minutes again this year although a significant contributor in following years provided he stays.

[jv001]

Well phase I is over and on we move. One aspect that became clear in Phase I is that White is the ist sub at the wing/SF position and that O'Connell will be getting token minutes in competitive games which includes all of the ACC games and the Indiana and Texas Tech games. Clearly Zion, Cam and RJ were always ahead of Jack and Alex but Jack's play through Phase I showed him as able to provide much needed defense and rebounding and a modicum of stability to the team. Too bad for Alex in a way as he can provide mid range and 3 point shooting which is also needed on this team.

Alex is now listed at 6'6" and 183#, has length, quickness, a decent handle, shoots well, has good hops and does get in for rebounds and deflects passes well on defense. Otherwise, a good fit for big guard or wing. On another ACC team he might well get significant minutes or even start. Probably not for Duke, barring injuries or something else unforseen. Joey Baker is in same boat, only less experienced and behind Alex and probably a red shirt at the end of the season.

I'm interested in Alex so looked at his strengths and weaknesses offensively and defensively and asked myself what he might do differently to become a more effective player as the season wears on.

Offensively he is like Cam, RJ and Zion in that he can bring the ball up the floor quickly and can usually make decent passes. He doesn't have the drive to take the ball directly to the basket as the others might but he does have an above aaverage pull up jumper and 3 point shot, something Zion, RJ and Jack don't have as much of at this point.

What I find to be negative about Alex offense is that he will get the ball and instead of making a feint towards the basket or looking to get the ball inside, he quickly passes back to his teammate without putting pressure on the defense. Alex is too deferential and needs to be coached into trying to create opportunities. Its hard to fault his teammate when he ignores him in the offense as what Alex does just tends to waste clock.

Defensively, coach K has indicated that Alex is making mistakes and he sees him as somewhat of a liability on the floor at this point. I watched him closely when he is in the game and don't see as much of a problem there. Cam and RJ are having more lapses than I see from Alex and it is to be expected as they are true freshmen. Alex seems to play his man closely, switches well, gets his hands on passes and isn't afraid to stick his nose in on rebounds.

So I see Alex relegated to token minutes again this year although a significant contributor in following years provided he stays.

I think Alex will be able to take the ball to the basket once he gains strength. He does seem heavier than last season but still not very strong. That's not the case for RJ, Cam and certainly Zion. Like you, I want to see Alex succeed at Duke. GoDuke!