2018-19 Duke Women's BB

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Must have been a different position. The Director of National Intelligence was not established until 2004 -- required by the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act. John Negroponte was the first director.

Yes the other DNI...Naval Intelligence...He then was interim CIA Director and Director of NSA. Now he's semi retired no doubt making millions consulting, etc. I'm writing a spy novel, I need to go visit him....

[CameronBlue]

Yes the other DNI...Naval Intelligence...He then was interim CIA Director and Director of NSA. Now he's semi retired no doubt making millions consulting, etc. I'm writing a spy novel, I need to go visit him...

Litmus test: Don't tell him you're coming

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Litmus test: Don't tell him you're coming

...he'll prolly know before I do...

(sorry for my part in the thread jack, I'm sure it'll get back on track when the women play again...)

[CamrnCrz1974]

Game Notes:
http://www.goduke.com/ViewArticle.db...084.1545857648

A Look at Notre Dame...
-- Notre Dame enters the contest with a 24-3 overall and 11-2 league mark.
-- The Irish feature five double-digit scorers -- Arike Ogunbowale (21.1), Jessica Shepherd (15.7), Marina Mabrey (14.6), Jackie Young (14.5) and Brianna Turner (13.1).
-- Notre Dame holds a 12-1 record at home this season with the lone loss coming against Connecticut.

The Series with Notre Dame..
-- Duke and Notre Dame will meet for the 18th time in school history Thursday with the Irish leading the series, 16-1.
-- The Blue Devils have lost 14 straight contests in the series. The Blue Devils are 0-5 in games played at Notre Dame, but the last meeting Duke dropped a close game, 62-58, in 2017.
-- Coach P has tallied a 2-12 mark versus Notre Dame over her career.

[CamrnCrz1974]

Even if a WBB program loses $X/yr, that's better than losing $2x or $4x, right? Whatever the numbers. So the lack of profitability of a given program doesn't mean that it's pointless to consider a buyout if you expect that you'd have less of a loss by making a change.

For many Power 5 schools, only football and basketball are sports where total revenue exceeds total expenses (for each particular sports). This means that every other sport is "non-revenue" -- whether women's basketball, men's lacrosse, women's golf, men's soccer, etc. The overwhelming majority collegiate varsity sports are not "profitable" (in terms of total revenue exceeding total expenses).

So I agree with you that the lack of profitability of a particular program does not automatically mean it is pointless to consider a buyout, if the change in coaches could yield less of an annual loss.

At Duke, women's basketball represents that largest percentage of expenses for women's sports but has a disproportionately larger percentage and represents the majority of the deficit when examining total revenues minus total expenses (nearly 2/3, despite the fact that there are 12 women's sports). Put another way, there are 334 female athletes participating in 12 varsity sports at Duke. 15 participate in women's basketball. Over 28 percent of expenses got to women's basketball (as compared to the other 11 sports) and 65.11 percent of the deficit (total expenses exceeding total revenue) for all women's sports is attributed to women's basketball. (LINK)

In terms of head coaches for women's sports, 9 are full-time positions while 3 are part-time (note that of the 11 men's sports, the same sports have 3 coaches assigned to the team on a part-time basis -- Swimming/Diving, Track & Field/Cross Country, and Fencing). The average annual institutional salary per head coaching position for the 12 women's sports is $217,429. Note that this is only for coaching duties. The average annual institutional salary per FTE (full-time equivalent coach) for the 12 women's sports at Duke is $248,490. (LINK)

During the 2014 calendar year, McCallie was credited with nearly $1.2 million, including a more than $200,000 raise in base pay, which was reported at $975,000. It is unclear if "base pay" refers to the "coaching duties only" in the 2018 Equity in Athletics Team Information (linked above, but linked again here).

Just as is the case with Coach K and Coach Cut, whose salaries can skew the "average annual institutional salary" per head coaching position "for coaching duties only," so, too, can Coach P's salary "for coaching duties only" when compared to women's sports. And it represents a huge percentage of expenses. -- the total of head coaches' salaries for women's sports -- for coaching duties only -- is $2,609,148.

In addition, women's basketball represents $1,064,131 of the $3,106,207 for all operating (game-day) expenses for all women's sports (34.26 percent).

So should Duke consider a buyout, with two years remaining on Coach P's contract?

-- Right now, it is more than likely Duke will finish below .500 for the first time in decades. But the team went to the Sweet 16 last year. And Coach P has signed a top 10 recruiting class per ASGR (Prospects Nation has Duke's class ranked 16th, while Dan Olson of CGBR and espnW has Duke's class at 13th).

-- While Coach P's overall winning percentage at Duke is great in her 12 years (this is her 12th season) -- .768 overall, .742 in ACC games, 4 Elite Eights, 7 years at least making the Sweet 16) -- the last 5 years (4 prior years and this year) have been significantly worse -- .675 overall, .605 in ACC games, 1 Sweet 16, 2 Second Round losses, and 2 years missing the NCAAT altogether (assuming Duke misses the 2019 NCAAT).

-- While this year will likely end up being on the worst season in three decades, Duke will get Kyra Lambert back from injury next year and (hopefully) Mikayla Boykin for ACC games. That potentially provides a lot of firepower to the starting lineup, which returns everyone (and can have two starters from this year move to the bench, giving the second unit much needed scoring). But Duke will lose Haley Gorecki and Leaonna Odom to graduation after 2020 (and possibly Kyra Lambert, who will have completed her fifth season at Duke at that point). If 2020 does not have an elite recruiting class, the program could experience more years like this one. And, as jimsumner noted, "Recruits want to know who's going to be coaching when they show up."

[DU82]

As usual, a fine summary about WBB from CamrnCrz1974.

My view is that Coach P will not get bought out at the end of this season. With various issues including losing three players not of her fault, (unless she forced Rayah Craig to violate Duke standards - not including Madison, as transfers should count "against" the coach as it's part of recruiting) and a good recruiting class coming in, I can't see Kevin White forcing her out.

That said, next season is critical for the program and Coach P. Unless there's clear progress made, I would certainly hope that there's no contract extension. (Which would make P a lame duck in her last contractual year, if she stays.)

Since the "review of the program", as the investigation into practice methods was called, I believe from what I see attending the games, the in-game coaching has actually improved, and my understanding is that other positive changes in methodology and personal interactions. A big question is whether or not these changes were too late. Has the product and reputation been hurt so much that they can't recover? From a recruiting standpoint, it appears to have hurt, as we're not in the chase for the top ten recruits in the same way we were before (with both Coach P and Coach G before her.) While we have a better recruiting class coming in next season, it's not consensus top ten as many classes were before.

Coach P isn't going to change a lot of things. She's going to stick with the match-up zone, as it works most of the time. (As with last year's first round game, if she has the players she WILL play M2M; she doesn't have the players this year, and those crying for her to play M2M aren't watching the games closely, IMO. The 3-point shooting by opponents is mostly below that team's average; as Jim Sumner's said, the issue isn't the defense.) She's going to use the term "lessons learned" in her press conference, just as other coaches have similar common phrases they fall back to. Our teams are typically going to be in much better shape than others (once she's able to have them for a year in the program) and will outlast most opponents. She's going to lack in offensive production, as the type of player she recruits isn't always going to be great shooters. Others can add to this list, and many will disagree with some of this, I'm sure. Are there better coaches out there, certainly, but are any available at this point? Probably not. If she leaves, Coach P's replacement is likely a younger, lower level coach. She might be our version of Kellie Harper, but she hopefully might be the next Coach G.

I don't know if anything Coach P or Duke does will get back some of the former fans of the program. For some, it started with her first day (and for some of those, the way G left never gave P a chance.) For others, it's been past behavior, which I understand. (Taking away or controlling her Twitter feed has helped on the PR side.) There were certainly times, especially after the departures of Azura and Angela, where I questioned my faith in the program. But I enjoyed watching the last two seasons more than many previous ones, but of course this year is pretty painful. But I made it through far worse with the football team, and I'm not abandoning the team (or Coach) at this point.

[Phredd3]

But the team went to the Sweet 16 last year. And Coach P has signed a top 10 recruiting class per ASGR (Prospects Nation has Duke's class ranked 16th, while Dan Olson of CGBR and espnW has Duke's class at 13th).

I keep hearing about the recruiting class, but I'm just not seeing greatness in it. Hoopgurlz lists the players as the 15th best guard, the 19th best guard, and the 10th best forward, plus a recruit not in the top 100. Williams, Boykin, and Treece was a better class in terms of individual player ranking, and while Boykin has been very good when healthy, Williams has struggled, and Treece got so little playing time she transferred mid-season. I'm just having a tough time looking at that group and seeing salvation.

[jimsumner]

I keep hearing about the recruiting class, but I'm just not seeing greatness in it. Hoopgurlz lists the players as the 15th best guard, the 19th best guard, and the 10th best forward, plus a recruit not in the top 100. Williams, Boykin, and Treece was a better class in terms of individual player ranking, and while Boykin has been very good when healthy, Williams has struggled, and Treece got so little playing time she transferred mid-season. I'm just having a tough time looking at that group and seeing salvation.

It's the kind of class Wes Moore would turn into a killer group.

Does McCallie (and her staff) have that kind of player-development ability?

She hasn't really had to, so far. But the stream of top-20 recruits has dried up, at least for the time being. So, she'd better up that part of her skill set.

Duke would like to bring in a post player, either via the grad-student-transfer route or an international. But, slim pickings so far.

[chrishoke]

After sitting in Cameron for that debacle last night, I am continuing my gluttony for punishment by watching Notre Dame make a mockery of what duke women's basketball has become. After one, ND is on pace to score 108 tonight.

[53n206]

ND up 51-25 at half. I've had enough.

[chrishoke]

52-25 at the half.

[chrishoke]

89-61 final.

[dudog84]

One bright spot (gotta take 'em where we can get 'em)...Miela makes a freshman record 8 3-pointers which ties the team record.

She is now 11 behind Becca for the freshman season record with a minimum 4 games remaining. She could get it.

[CameronBornAndBred]

One bright spot (gotta take 'em where we can get 'em)...Miela makes a freshman record 8 3-pointers which ties the team record.

She is now 11 behind Becca for the freshman season record with a minimum 4 games remaining. She could get it.

I didn't watch the game (knew it would be ugly), but came here to ask if 8 made from 3 was a record for a player at Duke. Surprised it's only a freshman record. Is her 14 tries a record for a single player? Has to be close. Thankfully she was hitting them.

Another stat that stood out. 16-5. That's the number of Duke fouls to ND fouls. For the whole game.

5 fouls in 40 minutes of basketball. Wow. No ND player had more than one.

[dudog84]

I didn't watch the game (knew it would be ugly), but came here to ask if 8 made from 3 was a record for a player at Duke. Surprised it's only a freshman record. Is her 14 tries a record for a single player? Has to be close. Thankfully she was hitting them.

Another stat that stood out. 16-5. That's the number of Duke fouls to ND fouls. For the whole game.

5 fouls in 40 minutes of basketball. Wow. No ND player had more than one.

Becca was 8 for 16 in a game her junior year. Both records.

That's what makes Miela's numbers (and promise) even better. She's 61 of 131 (46.6%) in 760 minutes. Becca was 72 of 202 in 1171 minutes, all freshman records. No slight on Becca, she's one of my all-time favorites.

As Miela progresses, and with some health in other players, we're going to have a heck of a backcourt for the next few years. Frontcourt...

Another stat that should have stuck out to you...we were out-rebounded 45 to 25. Our frontcourt measures 6-5, 6-3, 6-2. Notre Dame plays a 3-guard lineup. But then Haley is our leading rebounder, which is ridiculous.

Funny note in a sad way: goduke currently has tonight's game as a win on the schedule/results, and corresponding record as 12-13.

[Kedsy]

At least the 12-0 Duke run in the third quarter was kind of fun. Apparently the first time all season Notre Dame has given up a 10-0 or better run.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Becca was 8 for 16 in a game her junior year. Both records.

That's what makes Miela's numbers (and promise) even better. She's 61 of 131 (46.6%) in 760 minutes. Becca was 72 of 202 in 1171 minutes, all freshman records. No slight on Becca, she's one of my all-time favorites.

At least the 12-0 Duke run in the third quarter was kind of fun. Apparently the first time all season Notre Dame has given up a 10-0 or better run.

silverlining.jpg

Thanks to both of you for happy stats, levity, and silver linings.

[duke09hms]

I wonder if McCallie referred to the ND players by their numbers in the presser.

https://twitter.com/MuffetMcGraw/sta...67657016053760

[CamrnCrz1974]

I wonder if McCallie referred to the ND players by their numbers in the presser.

https://twitter.com/MuffetMcGraw/sta...67657016053760

WBB: Duke Postgame Presser 2/21
http://www.goduke.com/mediaPortal/pl...200&id=6311414
http://www.goduke.com/mediaPortal/pl...08693&cid=1002

Excerpts from Coach P's post-game press conference:

-- "We didn't really slow down 24, Arike, very much."
-- "I'm proud of my team. I'm proud of what we are going through, what we're fighting, what we're doing.
-- "Miela showed the most incredible character against a very good team."
-- "The rebounding deficit points to the whole issue. Numbers 32 and 11, you know them by name, and I do, too. The two post players...two senior post players with a lot of experience, and they really took it to us."
-- "When Notre Dame plays like this, they are a cut above. They are dominant at a very critical time. This kind of play is top level and the top of the conference."
-- "We didn't or couldn't get the job done tonight. Obviously, that is a valuable lesson for us."

[Mike Corey]

Lots of valuable lessons this season.

What shall this coaching staff do with them?

I suspect we'll have at least one more chance to find out next season.