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  1. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Jason, are there spoilers? The official preview kinda lest you know what it is about without much in the way of specifics. Started to stream, then shut it off when Josh started to discuss the plot.

    Thanks, and good luck with the podcast series!
    We only discuss the plot in very generic kind of ways. Certainly nothing that is not revealed in trailers and other normal reviews.

    Thanks for listening. We are having fun with it. The next one should feature us really fighting about a movie... we’ve mostly been in agreement on the Oscar caliber films we’ve been seeing lately.

  2. #22
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    I saw a couple films this week that are going to be in the Oscar conversation. I figured I would start a thread to talk about these and other contenders for big awards.
    Can anyone recommend a good resource for a list of Best Picture contenders?

    My wife and I try to see all the Best Picture nominees each year. In order to avoid spending all our February free time at the movies, it helps to see several "likely nominees" ahead of the official nomination announcement in late January.

    In the past, I have found the Nominoptions section of Hollywood Stock Exchange to be pretty reliable for predicting nominations, but this isn't running yet. My secondary source in past years has been Indiewire, but they currently list 10 movies as "Frontrunners". That is a bit too wide of a net.

    What I would really like to know is which 2-3 films have the best chance of being nominated for Best Picture.



    Maybe Joe Lundardi can provide his list of the Best Picture "locks".

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by House P View Post
    Can anyone recommend a good resource for a list of Best Picture contenders?

    My wife and I try to see all the Best Picture nominees each year. In order to avoid spending all our February free time at the movies, it helps to see several "likely nominees" ahead of the official nomination announcement in late January.

    In the past, I have found the Nominoptions section of Hollywood Stock Exchange to be pretty reliable for predicting nominations, but this isn't running yet. My secondary source in past years has been Indiewire, but they currently list 10 movies as "Frontrunners". That is a bit too wide of a net.

    What I would really like to know is which 2-3 films have the best chance of being nominated for Best Picture.

    Maybe Joe Lundardi can provide his list of the Best Picture "locks".
    There are likely to be 7 or so Best Picture nominees this year. I would say the following films are close to a lock for being one of them: The Favourite, Vice, A Star is Born.

    I would be more than mildly shocked if any of those 3 did not get a Best Picture nom. Vice is the least likely of those three but I would still make it 90% to be a nominee. Green Book and Roma also close to being locks... close.

    After that it gets a lot more dicey. Here are the odds, just off the top of my head.

    The Favourite - 98%
    A Star is Born - 98%
    Vice - 90%
    Green Book - 75%
    Roma - 70%
    BlacKkKlansman - 60%
    If Beale Street Could Talk - 60%
    Black Panther - 50%
    First Man - 40%
    Mary Poppins Returns - 35%
    Bohemian Rhapsody - 30%
    Welcome to Marwen - 30%
    On the Basis of Sex - 25%
    Beautiful Boy - 20%
    Eighth Grade - 15%
    A Quiet Place - 10%
    Can You Ever Forgive Me - 10%
    Crazy Rich Asians - 10%
    Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse - 5%

    -Jason "I am sure someone will point out that there is some math that makes my percentages impossible, but... well... I tried" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  4. #24
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    The previews for Christian Bale playing Dick Cheney are absolutely riveting, in an ever so creepy kind of way. At first I thought it was Dick himself. That man (Bale) can act...not to mention Gloria Steinem is his stepmom, so there's that.

  5. #25
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    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    The previews for Christian Bale playing Dick Cheney are absolutely riveting, in an ever so creepy kind of way. At first I thought it was Dick himself. That man (Bale) can act...not to mention Gloria Steinem is his stepmom, so there's that.
    His performance is awesome. Steve Carrell is also great as Rumsfeld. A truly wondrous cast, second only to The Favourite in my mind.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  6. #26
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    There are likely to be 7 or so Best Picture nominees this year. I would say the following films are close to a lock for being one of them: The Favourite, Vice, A Star is Born.

    I would be more than mildly shocked if any of those 3 did not get a Best Picture nom. Vice is the least likely of those three but I would still make it 90% to be a nominee. Green Book and Roma also close to being locks... close.

    After that it gets a lot more dicey. Here are the odds, just off the top of my head.

    The Favourite - 98%
    A Star is Born - 98%
    Vice - 90%
    Green Book - 75%
    Roma - 70%
    BlacKkKlansman - 60%
    If Beale Street Could Talk - 60%
    Black Panther - 50%
    First Man - 40%
    Mary Poppins Returns - 35%
    Bohemian Rhapsody - 30%
    Welcome to Marwen - 30%
    On the Basis of Sex - 25%
    Beautiful Boy - 20%
    Eighth Grade - 15%
    A Quiet Place - 10%
    Can You Ever Forgive Me - 10%
    Crazy Rich Asians - 10%
    Spiderman: Into the Spiderverse - 5%

    -Jason "I am sure someone will point out that there is some math that makes my percentages impossible, but... well... I tried" Evans
    This is exactly the kind of analysis I was looking for. Thanks.

    I'm very interested in seeing the top 4 films on your list, so that seems like a good place to start. A Star is Born is still playing at the megaplex on the way home from work, so you just decided our plans for the evening. The Favourite isn't playing as widely, but it isn't too hard to find and will be next.

    Looks like Vice is the biggest discrepancy between your list and the Indiewire list. Indiewire lists this as a "Contender", which is the next category down from "Favorite".

  7. #27
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    Quote Originally Posted by House P View Post
    Looks like Vice is the biggest discrepancy between your list and the Indiewire list. Indiewire lists this as a "Contender", which is the next category down from "Favorite".
    I could be wrong about Vice, I freely admit that. It is certainly a film that fans of W and Cheney probably won't like, which could make it somewhat toxic to some Oscar voters, but the fact that it did so well at the Golden Globes tells me it is going to get a Best Picture nomination. I don't think it will win (Star is Born or Favourite seem like the most likely winners).
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  8. #28
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    The Academy has released the "short" list of Best Original Song contenders. I find it very interesting that "A Star is Born" only pushed Shallow for this award. I think they were afraid that having multiple contenders could split the vote, a smart strategy. Personally, I think Always Remember Us This Way could have been a strong contender.

    Anyway, here is the short list:

    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (“When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings”)
    Writers: David Rawlings, Gillian Welch
    Performers: Willie Watson, Tim Blake Nelson

    Beautiful Boy (“Treasure”)
    Writer: Sampha Sisay
    Performer: Sampha

    Black Panther (“All The Stars”)
    Writers: Kendrick Lamar, Anthony Tiffith, Mark Spears, Solána Rowe, Al Shuckburgh
    Performers: Kendrick Lamar, SZA

    Boy Erased (“Revelation”)
    Writers: Troye Sivan Mellet, Jón Birgisson
    Performers: Troye Sivan, Jónsi

    Dumplin’ (“Girl In The Movies”)
    Writers: Dolly Parton, Linda Perry
    Performer: Dolly Parton

    The Hate U Give (“We Won’t Move”)
    Writer: Jessica Karpov, Kevin White, Mike Woods
    Performer: Arlissa

    Mary Poppins Returns (“The Place Where Lost Things Go”)
    Writers: Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
    Performer: Emily Blunt

    Mary Poppins Returns (“Trip A Little Light Fantastic”
    Writers: Marc Shaiman, Scott Wittman
    Performers: Lin-Manuel Miranda with Emily Blunt, Tarik Frimpong, Pixie Davies, Joel Dawson, Nathanael Saleh & Leeries

    Quincy (“Keep Reachin'”)
    Writers: Mark Ronson, Jeff Bhasker, Andrew Wyatt, Chaka Khan, Quincy Jones
    Performers: Mark Ronson, Chaka Khan, Quincy Jones

    RBG (“I’ll Fight”)
    Writer: Diane Warren
    Performer: Jennifer Hudson

    Ralph Breaks the Internet (“A Place Called Slaughter Race”)
    Writers: Alan Menken (music); Phil Johnston, Tom MacDougall (lyrics)
    Performers: Sarah Silverman, Gal Gadot, Steve Amerson, Michael Bannett, Eric Bradley, Laura Dickinson, Kelci Hahn, Ayana Haviv, Clydene Jackson, Sara Mann, Jasper Randall, Jessica Rotter, Fletcher Sheridan, Greg Whipple

    Sorry to Bother You (“OYAHYTT”)
    Writers: Boots Riley, Ryan Christopher Parks, Damion Gallegos
    Performers: The Coup featuring Lakeith Stanfield

    A Star Is Born (“Shallow”)
    Writers: Lady Gaga, Mark Ronson, Anthony Rossomando, Andrew Wyatt
    Performers: Lady Gaga, Bradley Cooper

    Suspiria (“Suspirium”)
    Writer: Thom Yorke
    Performer: Thom Yorke

    Widows (“The Big Unknown”)
    Writers: Sade Adu, Ben Travers
    Performer: Sade
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  9. #29
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    The Academy also released several other short lists. This is a way of helping voters to know which films to focus upon. Here are a few interesting ones:

    Visual Effects:
    Ant-Man and the Wasp
    Avengers: Infinity War
    Black Panther
    Christopher Robin
    First Man
    Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
    Mary Poppins Returns
    Ready Player One
    Solo: A Star Wars Story
    Welcome to Marwen
    I see First Man, JW, Avengers, and Black Panther as the leading contenders here. Black Panther is probably the odds-on favorite.

    Original Score
    Annihilation
    Avengers: Infinity War
    The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
    Black Panther
    BlacKkKlansman
    Crazy Rich Asians
    The Death of Stalin
    Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
    First Man
    If Beale Street Could Talk
    Isle of Dogs
    Mary Poppins Returns
    A Quiet Place
    Ready Player One
    Vice
    Beale Street really should win, but I'm not sure the orchestra-loving traditionalists will go for the jazzy Beale Street score. BlacKkKlansman, First Man, and Isle of Dogs are also strong contenders, IMO. I think it would be hysterical if A Quiet Place, a film about silence, got a nomination for its music.

    Foreign Language
    Colombia, Birds of Passage
    Denmark, The Guilty
    Germany, Never Look Away
    Japan, Shoplifters
    Kazakhstan, Ayka
    Lebanon, Capernaum
    Mexico, Roma
    Poland, Cold War
    South Korea, Burning
    Most years this would be a 2 way race between the brilliant Shoplifters and Cold War, but Roma is a mortal lock, I think.

    Documentary
    Charm City
    Communion
    Crime + Punishment
    Dark Money
    The Distant Barking of Dogs
    Free Solo
    Hale County This Morning, This Evening
    Minding the Gap
    Of Fathers and Sons
    On Her Shoulders
    RBG
    Shirkers
    The Silence of Others
    Three Identical Strangers
    Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
    Free Solo, RGB, Three Identical Strangers, and Won't You Be My Neighbor are the front-runners. I think RGB will win in socially conscious Hollywood.

    Makeup and Hairstyling
    Black Panther
    Bohemian Rhapsody
    Border
    Mary Queen of Scots
    Stan & Ollie
    Suspiria
    Vice
    The job of aging Bale, Adams, and Carell in Vice is pretty impressive. I wonder if Suspria is just too weird and will turn off some voters as a result. I'm surprised The Favourite did not show up here, if only for Nicholas Hoult's wigs.

    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  10. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    The Academy also released several other short lists. This is a way of helping voters to know which films to focus upon. Here are a few interesting ones:

    I see First Man, JW, Avengers, and Black Panther as the leading contenders here. Black Panther is probably the odds-on favorite.
    Really? Perhaps I am misunderstanding the category, but I thought one of the main knocks on Black Panther was that is struggled visually. At least with the CGI related work.

  11. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by luburch View Post
    Really? Perhaps I am misunderstanding the category, but I thought one of the main knocks on Black Panther was that is struggled visually. At least with the CGI related work.
    I don't recall that being a problem in the movie and I think the Academy will be looking for places to honor it (other than Best Picture, where it could be nominated, but won't win). Visual effects seems like a nice place to do that in a year where I don't recall anything groundbreaking from an effects standpoint.
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  12. #32
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    Seeing The Favourite today. Possibly Roma as well. Heard nothing but great things about both.

    A little disappointed to see meh reviews for Mary Queen of Scots.

  13. #33
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    Saw Mary Queen of Scots tonight, and... it's not as terrible as I'd heard. Still some wildly inaccurate parts (like... Mary and Elizabeth never did meet, and I seriously doubt Mary actually had a Scots accent, but historically correctly they do have her speaking fluent French at least among her lady's maids), but it is well acted, and in feel and spirit I thought it portrayed things fairly well. Many details can surely be nit-picked in it - I found plenty - but yet, I enjoyed the experience over-all. Meh Plus, I'd say.

    (I also have mixed feelings about The Favourite - again plenty of things just slightly wrong historically, a few wildly wrong, but in over-all feel does quite well I thought. As entertainment, it was certainly odd - those I went with found the entire film "disturbing" and the music and pacing helps build that sensation up as it all progresses. Not so much a comedic 'romp' as dark comedy, surprising and likely disappointing many viewers, I gather. Excellent acting throughout, lushly filmed (in both cases it helps with me because I know many of the shooting locations from earlier visits to them and always enjoy that) although many felt The Favourite lasted too long. Physically, and oddly, they really could have switched the actors of Sarah and cousin Abigail, as Sarah was the redhead of the two. Queen Anne is portrayed very well, and I think, accurately, although some historians always pop up to try to rehabilitate her reputation. In British costume dramas of the year, there shouldn't be complaints about the lack of good leading parts for females... I enjoyed The Favourite a lot, but I also knew the history behind it which helps a lot, and it may leave many feeling somewhat lost. But viewers still should enjoy the acting performances.)

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    The previews for Christian Bale playing Dick Cheney are absolutely riveting, in an ever so creepy kind of way. At first I thought it was Dick himself. That man (Bale) can act...not to mention Gloria Steinem is his stepmom, so there's that.
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    His performance is awesome. Steve Carrell is also great as Rumsfeld. A truly wondrous cast, second only to The Favourite in my mind.
    The Lawyer Dick Cheney Shot in the Face Says He’s Definitely Going to See ‘Vice

    https://www.indiewire.com/2018/12/vi...202029720/amp/


    I wonder if RT will lethim post as a Top Critic?

    I'm probably being petty in another thread.

  15. #35
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    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    The Lawyer Dick Cheney Shot in the Face Says He’s Definitely Going to See ‘Vice

    https://www.indiewire.com/2018/12/vi...202029720/amp/


    I wonder if RT will lethim post as a Top Critic?
    The face shooting is barely a part of the movie. It comes and goes really quickly without much impact on the main character.
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  16. #36
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    After hearing all of the praise, I saw If Beale Street Could Talk Friday night. Thoroughly enjoyed it. Sneaks into my top 10 films of the year.

    I've seen ~75 films from 2018. Still a few more (Colette, Burning, Shoplifters, Mid-90's) that I'm going to try and find a way to see. I'll share my full list and my thoughts on who should get the Oscar nominations when I've finished.

  17. #37
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    My top 2018 films:
    A Quiet Place
    Annihilation
    Eighth Grade
    A Star is Born
    BlacKkKlansman
    Green Book
    Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
    Colette
    Blindspotting
    If Beale Street Could Talk

    In total, I watched 78 films released in 2018. Full ranked list is here: https://letterboxd.com/luburch/list/2018-movies/

    I'm still trying to watch Can You Ever Forgive Me, Burning, and Shoplifters. I believe all have the ability to crack the top 10-15.

    My Oscar nomination predictions (winner in bold):

    Best Picture:
    A Star is Born
    Roma
    The Favourite
    Green Book
    BlacKkKlansman
    Can You Ever Forgive Me?
    If Beale Street Could Talk

    Best Actor:
    Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
    Christian Bale - Vice
    Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
    Viggo Mortensen - Green Book
    John David Washington - BlacKkKlansman
    Ethan Hawke - First Reformed

    Best Actress:
    Glenn Close - The Wife
    Olivia Colman - The Favourite
    Lady Gaga - A Star is Born
    Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
    Elsie Fisher - Eighth Grade (Best performance I saw all year)

    Best Director:
    Bradley Cooper - A Star is Born
    Spike Lee - BlackKklansman
    Alfonso Cuaron - Roma
    Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
    Barry Jenkins - If Beale Stree Could Talk

    Best Supporting Actor:
    Mahershala Ali - Green Book
    Timothee Chalamet - Beautiful Boy
    Adam Driver - BlackKklansman
    Richard E Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
    Sam Elliot

    Best Supporting Actress:
    Emma Stone - The Favourite
    Rachel Weisz - The Favourite
    Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
    Amy Adams - Vice
    Claire Foy - First Man

  18. #38
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    Nominations!!!

    We get the announcement in less than 10 minutes. While I expect The Favourite to get a lot of noms, it does not seem to be a major contender for more than Best Actress at this point. It will be very interesting to see how many nominations Bohemian Rap gets with it winning awards but many critics saying it just isn't that good a movie.

    I hope Black Panther, Annihilation, and Quiet Place get significant nominations, as the Oscars are for all the films released in 2018, not just the ones that came out in Oct-Dec.

    -Jason "I'll be back in a bit to update with nomination reaction" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  19. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Richard Grant is off the charts and, I think, almost certain to get a Best Supporting Actor nod.
    Told ya...

    Just like every year, Supporting Actor is a nightmare to pick. I can probably make a case for any of these winning.

    Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
    Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
    Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
    Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
    Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  20. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Told ya...

    Just like every year, Supporting Actor is a nightmare to pick. I can probably make a case for any of these winning.

    Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
    Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
    Sam Elliott, “A Star Is Born”
    Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
    Sam Rockwell, “Vice”
    Rockwell surprises me. I did not love his performance in Vice.

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