MBB: 2019 Bracketology Thread

[Troublemaker]

Hey, if they're going to start a 2020 Presidential Election thread on the Off-Topic board already, this doesn't seem so unreasonable.

Anyway, you guys will be pleased to know that Duke enters the New Year and ACC conference play as the overall #1 seed.

Here's Lunardi, but more importantly, here's Bracket Matrix, which uses the wisdom of crowds by averaging a bunch of bracketologists.

Winning the ACC regular season is its own prize of course, and a valuable one since we haven't done it in awhile. But this season, we also get to beat out UVA for the DC regional and a pretty sweet NCAAT path of Columbia, SC --> Washington, DC --> Minneapolis. (Any path that includes -apolis is pretty sweet).

[JasonEvans]

... the DC regional and a pretty sweet NCAAT path of Columbia, SC --> Washington, DC --> Minneapolis.

#16 seed - Coastal Carolina
#8 seed - Clemson
#4 seed - Maryland
#2 seed - Virginia Tech

-Jason "I know it won't happen, but I like messing around" Evans

[duke2x]

But this season, we also get to beat out UVA for the DC regional and a pretty sweet NCAAT path of Columbia, SC --> Washington, DC --> Minneapolis. (Any path that includes -apolis is pretty sweet).

If the #1 overall seed gets to choose its path to the Final 4 again, Duke will probably choose Hartford over Columbia for the 1st 2 rounds. It has nothing to do with 2017. If Duke is not the #1 overall seed, then I see us in Columbia. I would agree with DC for the 2nd 2 rounds is the goal. MI, UVA, KS, TN, etc. would all be in the other brackets. The fans in DC in 2008 were the worst I've experienced in a NCAA venue, much worse than any venue in NC and SC. It's still the best option, however, over Louisville, Kansas in Kansas City, and San Jose.

I don't see Lunardi's revenge-on-Duke bracket happening. You might get 1 possible repeat in weekend 2.

[Troublemaker]

If the #1 overall seed gets to choose its path to the Final 4 again, Duke will probably choose Hartford over Columbia for the 1st 2 rounds. It has nothing to do with 2017. If Duke is not the #1 overall seed, then I see us in Columbia.

Why would Duke prefer to travel farther? And if they do, they better get the word out to us fans. Because if Duke continues to play great this season, we fans are going to look at Columbia, DC, and Minneapolis for travel plans.

[Neals384]

If the #1 overall seed gets to choose its path to the Final 4 again, Duke will probably choose Hartford over Columbia for the 1st 2 rounds. It has nothing to do with 2017. If Duke is not the #1 overall seed, then I see us in Columbia. I would agree with DC for the 2nd 2 rounds is the goal. MI, UVA, KS, TN, etc. would all be in the other brackets. The fans in DC in 2008 were the worst I've experienced in a NCAA venue, much worse than any venue in NC and SC. It's still the best option, however, over Louisville, Kansas in Kansas City, and Anaheim.

I don't see Lunardi's revenge-on-Duke bracket happening. You might get 1 possible repeat in weekend 2.

Fify

[duke2x]

Why would Duke prefer to travel farther? And if they do, they better get the word out to us fans. Because if Duke continues to play great this season, we fans are going to look at Columbia, DC, and Minneapolis for travel plans.

The NYC/CT/NJ area is the only road game we voluntarily schedule, and the other school is likely to be a #4 seed that is not local. We only played 1 game in NYC this year, which I'm sure disappoints some of our Iron Dukes in that area, and Duke fans don't travel as well between Guilford and Fulton Counties. I have no problem with it, but I wouldn't mind Columbia. I bought tickets in the presale. DC, at $125/game face value, was too much of a risk.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Why would Duke prefer to travel farther? And if they do, they better get the word out to us fans. Because if Duke continues to play great this season, we fans are going to look at Columbia, DC, and Minneapolis for travel plans.

Cola SC is great....unless NC is also there. Last time we did that in the SC area, didn't work out so well. (no need to play in front of thousands of cheats fans from Charlotte area)

[DarkstarWahoo]

Apologies if this is the wrong thread for this, but with conference play starting, it's looking more and more likely that there may be almost zero at-large bids from teams outside the P5+Big East.

Using the most recent NET rankings, there appear to be three such teams that are safe: Houston (4), Gonzaga (6) and Nevada (11). Buffalo is at 28, but any MAC loss is going to be a catastrophe for them. They MIGHT be able to survive two league losses and a conference tournament loss, but that's going to leave them sweating, although they have wins over WVU and Syracuse to hang their hat on.

In all, there are 11 teams from non-power leagues in the top 50. Cincinnati (25) will have a shot. North Texas (38) will be helped by the new CUSA scheduling model. The Atlantic Sun has two teams in the top 50 - Lipscomb (39) and Liberty (47) - but let's be real here, no A-Sun team is getting an at-large bid. Utah State (34) probably has to beat Nevada twice to have a shot, and San Francisco (40) is in the same position with Gonzaga. UCF (41) probably needs to win the AAC regular season to have a shot.

Then there's the Pac-12, which really should be a one-bid league. Arizona State (45) is the only team in the top 50, although they've got that Kansas win, which is huge. Will the committee have the stones to leave out the second-place Pac-12 team even though its metrics will be awful?

[duke2x]

Cola SC is great...unless NC is also there. Last time we did that in the SC area, didn't work out so well. (no need to play in front of thousands of cheats fans from Charlotte area)

The large contingent of SC fans was the problem. Contrary to every other pod placement except Pitt/WI in 2004, they basically got a home game as a #7 seed in 2017. It was apparent at the start of the SC/Marquette game that the atmosphere was much more like a game @Maryland than any of the NCAA pods with Duke/UNC in Charlotte or Greensboro. Add in the fact that teams that play 4 games/4 days will, more often than not, play poorly in the NCAA tournament the following week.

I will take Duke/UNC in Columbia with this team if that is what we get. I don't think it will matter this March.

[duke2x]

Utah State (34) probably has to beat Nevada twice to have a shot, and San Francisco (40) is in the same position with Gonzaga. UCF (41) probably needs to win the AAC regular season to have a shot.

Then there's the Pac-12, which really should be a one-bid league. Arizona State (45) is the only team in the top 50, although they've got that Kansas win, which is huge. Will the committee have the stones to leave out the second-place Pac-12 team even though its metrics will be awful?

There is a "West Coast" bias to make about 20% of the field from the west every year. If you can justify a MWC, WCC, or P12 team, they are usually in. This year does look like more MWC and WCC teams that P12.

[OldPhiKap]

The large contingent of SC fans was the problem. Contrary to every other pod placement except Pitt/WI in 2004, they basically got a home game as a #7 seed in 2017. It was apparent at the start of the SC/Marquette game that the atmosphere was much more like a game @Maryland than any of the NCAA pods with Duke/UNC in Charlotte or Greensboro. Add in the fact that teams that play 4 games/4 days will, more often than not, play poorly in the NCAA tournament the following week.

I will take Duke/UNC in Columbia with this team if that is what we get. I don't think it will matter this March.

My friends who attended said that it was as much the UNC fans as anything. We had two very large groups against us.

I hate the pod system because we end up with those bastards in our location. And I suspect they would say the same about our fans. Not good for either team, even if it is more convenient for home-state fans to attend (which i$ what it i$ all about).

[HereBeforeCoachK]

My friends who attended said that it was as much the UNC fans as anything. We had two very large groups against us.

I hate the pod system because we end up with those bastards in our location. And I suspect they would say the same about our fans. Not good for either team, even if it is more convenient for home-state fans to attend (which i$ what it i$ all about).

Yes, it was the NC contingent as much, maybe more, than the SC fans. The NC fans poured into the area and scooped up the tickets after the first round from the losing fans. The Cheats simply have the demographic advantage over us in this situation. Duke should strongly suggest they not share a pod. No one else has to face their major hated rivals fan base in the NCAA, so why should Duke?

[JasonEvans]

Yes, it was the NC contingent as much, maybe more, than the SC fans. The NC fans poured into the area and scooped up the tickets after the first round from the losing fans. The Cheats simply have the demographic advantage over us in this situation. Duke should strongly suggest they not share a pod. No one else has to face their major hated rivals fan base in the NCAA, so why should Duke?

I don't have time to research it right now, but I would not be surprised to find out that Kentucky and Louisville have shared a pod in the past. It would certainly seem possible that Big Ten teams like Michigan, MSU, Ohio State, or Indiana have shared pods. While none of those rivalries rise to the level of Duke-Carolina, their fans certainly root against the rival.

Take care of business on the floor, don't worry about what is in the stands. I never really bought the excuse that Duke lost to an inferior SC team because it was "like a home game" for them. We lost cause they played out of their minds and we played quite poorly.

[ChillinDuke]

I don't have time to research it right now, but I would not be surprised to find out that Kentucky and Louisville have shared a pod in the past. It would certainly seem possible that Big Ten teams like Michigan, MSU, Ohio State, or Indiana have shared pods. While none of those rivalries rise to the level of Duke-Carolina, their fans certainly root against the rival.

Take care of business on the floor, don't worry about what is in the stands. I never really bought the excuse that Duke lost to an inferior SC team because it was "like a home game" for them. We lost cause they played out of their minds and we played quite poorly.

While I generally agree with your point (in bold), I think there is a not insignificant advantage from having a favorable crowd. It might not have swung that game, but I can't imagine it helped Duke.

And I'll remind everyone, although most of you probably remember, that we were not supposed to play in SC. Our pod got moved when the NCAA essentially penalized North Carolina as a state for having that HB2 law and disallowed NCAA-sanctioned events in state. We should have been in Charlotte (I think? Or was it Greensboro?).

- Chillin

[scottdude8]

Winning the ACC regular season is its own prize of course, and a valuable one since we haven't done it in awhile. But this season, we also get to beat out UVA for the DC regional and a pretty sweet NCAAT path of Columbia, SC --> Washington, DC --> Minneapolis. (Any path that includes -apolis is pretty sweet).

I have some bad memories of regionals in South Carolina... but then again, with Frank Martin's squad in an extremely down year, it's unlikely we run into the crazy confluence of events that led to us playing them essentially at home when we were upset. Hopefully with UNCs non-conference struggles as well we can avoid getting stuck in the same locale as those Tar Heel fans too.

[scottdude8]

I don't have time to research it right now, but I would not be surprised to find out that Kentucky and Louisville have shared a pod in the past. It would certainly seem possible that Big Ten teams like Michigan, MSU, Ohio State, or Indiana have shared pods. While none of those rivalries rise to the level of Duke-Carolina, their fans certainly root against the rival.

Take care of business on the floor, don't worry about what is in the stands. I never really bought the excuse that Duke lost to an inferior SC team because it was "like a home game" for them. We lost cause they played out of their minds and we played quite poorly.

Michigan and MSU have definitely shared a pod in the recent past... I was there in 2013 (on our way to the Final Four!) in suburban Detroit the last time it happened. Last year MSU and Purdue shared a pod in Detroit (not as much of a rivalry, but still two B1G teams)... and I got lucky enough to be there in person to watch the Sparties lose

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Take care of business on the floor, don't worry about what is in the stands. I never really bought the excuse that Duke lost to an inferior SC team because it was "like a home game" for them. We lost cause they played out of their minds and we played quite poorly.

It's true that SC played out of their minds, and that Duke played poorly (in both games frankly).
I think another factor is Duke "shot their wad" so to speak by winning 4 games in the ACCT. I think mental and physical fatigue was a factor, and why I don't really like the ACCT any more. (With more depth this season, not so much a factor.)

But let's address the SC team that played lights out. They felt bullet proof in that arena with that crowd. I also think the crowd "knocked Duke back" a bit as K likes to say. Sure, if you TCB on the court, the crowd may not matter. But taking care of business is not a totally separate issue from the crowd. TCB is easier with the home advantage, tougher with a hostile crowd (unless you are cold blooded like Laettner). That Duke team didn't have cold blooded killers like Laettner or Hurley or Brian Davis.

Again, not an excuse...because there are none...but yes, a factor. No other team in the field had a road game that hostile in the NCAAT, and certainly not a higher seed. That rarely happens.

[Troublemaker]

I have some bad memories of regionals in South Carolina... but then again, with Frank Martin's squad in an extremely down year, it's unlikely we run into the crazy confluence of events that led to us playing them essentially at home when we were upset. Hopefully with UNCs non-conference struggles as well we can avoid getting stuck in the same locale as those Tar Heel fans too.

South Carolina wouldn't be allowed to play in the Columbia pod anyway as that arena is their home arena and they're the host school for the pod. In 2017, Furman was the host school for Greenville and therefore South Carolina was allowed to play there.

As for the game in 2017, I agree that the home crowd energized South Carolina and was a factor in the loss.

[UrinalCake]

That SC team made it all the way to the final four and was within a possession in the final minute of making it to the Final. It’s not like in previous years where a team goes crazy and upsets us and then gets destroyed in their next game. SC was legit, or at least they played like it for that tournament.

Now, maybe you can say that beating us gave them confidence and they simply rode the momentum into a couple more wins. Who knows. It was a tough matchup and it happens. Last year we caught some breaks - Two really bad teams in the opening weekend, then Syracuse upset MSU so we got to face a double digit seed in the S16, then a beatable Kansas team.

Also I don’t believe that winning the ACCT was a bad thing, but that’s just me. They had 4 or 5 days to recover before their opening round game.

[ndkjr70]

Will they keep Nevada out west even though they’re the weakest #2? Seems like, early on, that’s the best draw possible for a 1 seed. I’ve watched 3 of their games so far and they strike me as a less offensively-talented TTU (and that’s saying something).

They’re sick defensively but nowhere near as talented as the other 2s will be.