Joey Baker

[hallcity]

We haven't been speculating too much about Joey Baker lately. Is it definite that he won't redshirt this year? Will he be in the rotation if he doesn't redshirt?

[Oshima25]

No idea regarding official info on a redshirt.

In my opinion though the rotation is a long shot. It's very tempting to say that based on our limited outside shooting and his general upside, Baker could crack the rotation and earn minutes this year. Realistically though, from a minutes perspective, you have to figure he's behind all four freshman, Javin, Bolden, O'Connell, and likely White. Possibly Goldwire too simply because he's our only actual backup point guard, even if others are likely to spell Tre handling the ball as well. No slight to Baker whatsoever, I just think he'll have to show whole lot to get meaningful minutes once the season really gets going.

Personally I'm kind of thinking of him as a member of our 2019 class, redshirt or not. If he contributes this season he'll no doubt have earned it, so he'll be a nice unexpected boost!

[scottdude8]

I would bet money we will never get an "official" answer as to whether or not he's redshirting until after the entire season. Why? Because when I was working for The Chronicle I wrote a couple articles on the then-redshirting Alex Murphy and Marshall Plumlee and directly asked Coach K about them, and invariably got a response along the lines of: "Redshirts do not have to be declared until after the season. If either player earns playing time they'll get it." Now, the players themselves definitely knew they were redshirting and told me so (https://www.dukechronicle.com/articl...-redshirt-year), but the staff never made anything "official" until after the year. (Note that more recent history with Amile Jefferson's medical redshirt also bears this out.)

As far as speculation about Baker, when I watched him play in Mississauga I was pleasantly surprised with his game, albeit in an exhibition setting... although there were clear moments where I watched and said, "That's a mistake made by a guy who just isn't ready to play at this level". So my gut feeling was that he would redshirt. However, given the issues we've seen in the exhibitions and heard about from practice with 3 point shooting, I wouldn't rule out his playing if either Jack White or Alex O'Connell can't definitively claim the role of "instant offense 3-point specialist" off the bench after the early season. So I'd say it's unlikely, but not impossible, that he sees the floor this year.

[Troublemaker]

I would bet money we will never get an "official" answer as to whether or not he's redshirting until after the entire season. Why? Because when I was working for The Chronicle I wrote a couple articles on the then-redshirting Alex Murphy and Marshall Plumlee and directly asked Coach K about them, and invariably got a response along the lines of: "Redshirts do not have to be declared until after the season. If either player earns playing time they'll get it." Now, the players themselves definitely knew they were redshirting and told me so (https://www.dukechronicle.com/articl...-redshirt-year), but the staff never made anything "official" until after the year. (Note that more recent history with Amile Jefferson's medical redshirt also bears this out.)

As far as speculation about Baker, when I watched him play in Mississauga I was pleasantly surprised with his game, albeit in an exhibition setting... although there were clear moments where I watched and said, "That's a mistake made by a guy who just isn't ready to play at this level". So my gut feeling was that he would redshirt. However, given the issues we've seen in the exhibitions and heard about from practice with 3 point shooting, I wouldn't rule out his playing if either Jack White or Alex O'Connell can't definitively claim the role of "instant offense 3-point specialist" off the bench after the early season. So I'd say it's unlikely, but not impossible, that he sees the floor this year.

That's only the case if he's redshirting.

If he's not redshirting, we should officially know by the second regular season game against Army. (I don't think he'll get in the game against Kentucky). [It's also possible we'll know by tonight, but I believe the rule is that freshmen can play in exhibition games and still redshirt.]

In any case, my prediction is that Joey will not redshirt AND will not be in the rotation.

[hallcity]

Now that I think about it, they changed the football redshirt rule this year so that players can play in as many as four games without blowing their redshirt year. Has there been any similar change to the rules for basketball redshirts?

[rocketeli]

It's important to remember that "redshirts" are not about what the player does or doesn't want. Scholarships are precious and limited and a redshirt will happen if and only if the coaching staff decides that this is in the best interests of the TEAM. That being said, I would doubt that Joey Baker is interested in a redshirt. Why would be want to be stuck in college for five years? At this point in his career that would mean things had worked out very badly for him on the basketball front. I'd speculate that he realized that a year spent going up against the best freshmen in college every day in practice and being coached by a world class staff at a world class university would do more for him than another year of high school ball, regardless of playing time, although I'm sure he also wants to play.

[grad_devil]

Now that I think about it, they changed the football redshirt rule this year so that players can play in as many as four games without blowing their redshirt year. Has there been any similar change to the rules for basketball redshirts?

It looks like the new legislation was football specific:

12.8.3.1.6 Exception—Football. [FBS/FCS] In football, a student-athlete may compete in up to four contests in a season without using a season of competition. (Adopted: 6/13/18 effective 8/1/18 for competition that occurs on or after 8/1/18)

[westwall]

It's important to remember that "redshirts" are not about what the player does or doesn't want. Scholarships are precious and limited and a redshirt will happen if and only if the coaching staff decides that this is in the best interests of the TEAM. That being said, I would doubt that Joey Baker is interested in a redshirt. Why would be want to be stuck in college for five years? At this point in his career that would mean things had worked out very badly for him on the basketball front. I'd speculate that he realized that a year spent going up against the best freshmen in college every day in practice and being coached by a world class staff at a world class university would do more for him than another year of high school ball, regardless of playing time, although I'm sure he also wants to play.

Even if Baker redshirts he will not be 'stuck' in college for five years, e.g., he could leave for the pros in 2, 3 or 4 years, or simply leave with a degree whenever he earns it.

[jimsumner]

Redshirting Baker only makes sense if you think he'll be around for five years.

I would be surprised if that's the case.

[scottdude8]

That's only the case if he's redshirting.

If he's not redshirting, we should officially know by the second regular season game against Army. (I don't think he'll get in the game against Kentucky). [It's also possible we'll know by tonight, but I believe the rule is that freshmen can play in exhibition games and still redshirt.]

In any case, my prediction is that Joey will not redshirt AND will not be in the rotation.

Haha, fair point. I guess I didn't phrase that quite correctly. Glad there wasn't any real money on it!

[phaedrus]

Redshirting Baker only makes sense if you think he'll be around for five years.

I would be surprised if that's the case.

He just turned 18 and he's ranked 37th in his class (about the same as Matt Jones and well below Grayson Allen). Where else would he go? If he's trying to get drafted before year five then I certainly hope he shows enough to be able to do so, but it seems like he's got a lot of work to do first.

That said, I'd be a little surprised if he red-shirts because there's little precedent for it.

[jimsumner]

He just turned 18 and he's ranked 37th in his class. Where else would he go? If he's trying to get drafted before year five then I certainly hope he shows enough to be able to do so, but it seems like he's got a lot of work to do first.

He was in the top-15 in his class before he reclassed. If he had stayed in the class of 2019 and come in as a top-15 recruit, would we expect him back as a senior in 2023? So, why would we expect him back as a redshirt senior in 2023 after his reclass?

No one is saying he's on the fast-track to the NBA. But there's absolutely no guarantee he's not going to be on NBA radar screens in 2021 or 2022. That's part of the equation.

Another part of the equation? Duke will lose Williamson, Barrett and Reddish after this season. They'll need some returnees to step up. Would a redshirt-freshman Baker help Duke more than a sophomore Baker, even if that's off a year with minimal PT?

So, the NBA is where else he would go. That seems to be popular with the kids these days.

[Acymetric]

Coach K said he was in the top 9-10 players on the team today in an interview with David Glenn.

...Which means he should clearly redshirt since he is well out of the rotation

[kAzE]

Can he still redshirt if he only plays 4 games, but those 4 games are all in the NCAA tournament?

. . . . Or is there a date cutoff, after which you can't redshirt if you play?

[mattman91]

Coach K said he was in the top 9-10 players on the team today in an interview with David Glenn.

...Which means he should clearly redshirt since he is well out of the rotation

But K said he is going deeper in his bench this year and he has never said that before

[HereBeforeCoachK]

But K said he is going deeper in his bench this year and he has never said that before

hah, love this conversation. I do remember his first team after all the great seniors left in 86...Alarie, Dawkins, Henderson...his 86-87 team was lightly regarded, but he used a deep rotation that year and had shockingly good season. Of course, when one of your best players is named John Smith....

[budwom]

But K said he is going deeper in his bench this year and he has never said that before

It really is the gift that keeps on giving...

[luvdahops]

It really is the gift that keeps on giving...

Fool me once....

[jimsumner]

It really is the gift that keeps on giving...

I always think of Lucy promising Charlie Brown that I really mean it this time. Trust me. You're kicking that football, Charlie Brown.


In further news, the NCAA is going to prioritize freedom of movement this year and limit contact in the lane.

[OldPhiKap]

Another part of the equation? Duke will lose Williamson, Barrett and Reddish after this season. They'll need some returnees to step up. Would a redshirt-freshman Baker help Duke more than a sophomore Baker, even if that's off a year with minimal PT?

As usual, Jim for the win. I think his observation quoted here is the start and end of the analysis — for him and for K.