2018-2019 Minutes Contest

[kAzE]

Too early to give Fish80 the title? If last night is any indication, the starters averaging less than 30 minutes per game is not such a far-fetched idea.

Zion and Cam had a little bit of foul trouble, and Tre left the game early when he banged knees with Reid Travis. I think in a close game, both Tre and RJ easily play 35+ minutes, and Zion/Cam well over 30 each.

There's really no reason to have those 4 guys off the floor at all unless they are gassed, in foul trouble, or the game is essentially over.

But I'm starting to think I underestimated Jack's minutes (I guessed 14). I'm starting to think Jack might end up with the 5th highest minutes played on this team. He won't play 30 minutes usually, but when there's a bit of foul trouble going on with Cam and Zion, Jack is the guy who absorbs the minutes.

[cbarry]

Does anybody know how this contest is going? Hopefully someone better at statistics than I has crunched the numbers...

[CDu]

Does anybody know how this contest is going? Hopefully someone better at statistics than I has crunched the numbers...

Well, whomever factored in Jones missing ~3 games and Zion missing ~5 games and counting is probably doing pretty well.

[cbarry]

I factored in RJ missing games, not necessarily Zion. Plus I gave Justin R way too many minutes, so I’m pretty much toast.

Well, whomever factored in Jones missing ~3 games and Zion missing ~5 games and counting is probably doing pretty well.

[Neals384]

Barrett	34.98
Jones	31.84
Reddish	28.85
Williamson	24.94
White	20.60
Bolden	17.93
Delaurier	15.66
O'connell	13.36
Goldwire	7.56
Vrankovic	2.50
Robinson	1.51
Buckmire	0.37
Besser	0.32
Baker	0.32

[Neals384]

Final minutes per game (total minutes divided by 38):

	Min / Game
Barrett	35.33
Jones	32.44
Reddish	28.30
Williamson	26.18
White	18.57
Bolden	17.74
Delaurier	16.15
O'Connell	13.27
Goldwire	7.76
Vrankovic	2.36
Robinson	1.47
Baker	0.47
Buckmire	0.33
Besser	0.29
Total	200.66

[cbarry]

I was way off on Justin (I don’t know WHAT I was thinking) and RJ (I knew at least 1 or 2 of our superstars would have a significant injury— just figured that would be RJ, not Zion).

otherwise, I was pretty close! Anyone tabulate all of the entries?

[pfrduke]

I was way off on Justin (I don’t know WHAT I was thinking) and RJ (I knew at least 1 or 2 of our superstars would have a significant injury— just figured that would be RJ, not Zion).

otherwise, I was pretty close! Anyone tabulate all of the entries?

Will do the results soon.

[MChambers]

Coach K wins again!

[camion]

Coach K wins again!

Hmm...

I suspect insider subbing.

[cbarry]

Will do the results soon.

Any update on the results, @pfrduke?

[pfrduke]

Results! Congrats to jv001 for winning the contest. All in all we were more accurate this year than last year - last year's winning mark of being off by 31.5 total minutes would have been middle of the pack this year.

	Jones	Barrett	Williamson	Reddish	Delaurier	White	Bolden	O'Connell	Goldwire	Vrankovic	Baker	Robinson	Other	Total
jv001	2.63	1.29	1.95	0.11	3.74	3.82	0.61	1.71	3.89	1.37	1.53	0.53	0.61	23.76
devilsince1977	0.63	1.29	2.95	0.89	3.74	4.82	0.61	0.29	3.89	0.37	3.53	0.53	0.61	24.13
David Bunkley	1.37	3.29	4.95	2.89	1.74	0.18	2.61	1.71	2.89	1.37	0.47	0.53	0.39	24.39
whereinthehellami	1.63	0.29	3.95	1.89	1.74	2.82	2.61	2.71	5.89	0.37	0.47	0.47	0.61	25.45
MChambers	0.37	2.29	3.95	1.11	3.74	4.82	3.39	0.29	3.89	0.63	0.47	0.47	0.39	25.82
House P	1.63	0.29	6.95	0.11	3.74	2.82	2.61	1.29	3.89	0.37	1.53	0.53	0.61	26.34
DCDevil9194	0.63	3.29	0.95	0.11	2.74	3.82	1.61	1.71	3.89	0.37	5.53	1.47	0.61	26.71
azzefkram	0.37	3.29	3.95	1.89	1.74	3.82	2.39	1.71	4.89	0.37	0.47	1.47	0.61	26.97
DallasDevil	0.63	0.29	6.95	4.89	0.26	4.82	0.39	2.29	4.89	0.37	0.47	0.47	0.61	27.34
BullBlue	0.37	1.29	5.95	1.89	0.26	1.82	2.61	3.29	4.89	0.37	3.53	2.47	0.39	29.13
flyingdutchdevil	0.63	1.29	2.95	0.89	6.74	1.82	4.61	2.71	5.89	0.37	0.47	0.47	0.61	29.45
DukieTiger	1.37	4.29	3.95	1.89	2.74	4.82	0.39	0.71	3.89	0.37	4.53	0.47	0.61	30.03
BandAlum83	1.63	3.29	4.95	0.11	2.26	2.82	0.61	6.71	4.89	0.37	1.53	0.53	0.61	30.29
Neals384	3.63	0.71	2.95	2.11	2.74	2.82	4.61	4.71	4.89	0.37	0.47	0.47	0.61	31.08
LaffPirate	0.63	3.29	3.95	0.89	3.74	6.82	0.39	4.71	3.89	1.37	0.47	1.47	0.39	32.03
luvdahops	1.63	0.29	3.95	3.89	0.74	7.82	1.61	0.71	5.89	0.37	4.53	0.47	0.61	32.50
Spanarkel	0.37	2.29	0.95	0.89	5.74	8.82	0.61	1.71	3.89	3.63	2.53	0.47	0.61	32.50
Matches	1.63	2.29	5.95	0.89	1.74	5.82	4.61	0.71	3.89	0.63	2.53	1.47	0.39	32.55
mr. snyellinden	1.63	1.29	5.95	1.89	4.74	7.82	1.61	2.71	3.89	0.37	0.47	1.53	0.61	34.50
HereBeforeCoachK	0.63	2.29	6.95	2.89	0.74	4.82	0.39	4.29	4.89	1.37	3.53	1.47	0.39	34.66
Gooch	0.63	1.29	5.95	2.89	3.74	2.82	3.61	1.29	4.89	2.37	2.53	1.53	1.39	34.92
Duke79UNLV77	0.37	1.29	6.95	1.89	2.74	4.82	1.61	0.71	5.89	2.37	3.53	1.53	1.39	35.08
luburch	1.63	0.29	5.95	3.89	3.74	9.82	1.61	2.71	4.89	0.63	0.47	1.53	0.61	37.76
sagegrouse	4.37	2.29	3.95	4.89	3.74	6.32	0.61	0.79	2.89	1.37	3.53	2.47	0.61	37.82
Green Wave Dukie	1.63	1.29	4.95	2.89	1.74	2.82	3.61	5.29	4.89	1.37	6.03	0.97	0.39	37.87
Furniture	1.63	1.29	5.95	3.89	0.26	3.82	4.61	1.29	6.89	0.37	7.53	0.53	0.61	38.66
timmy c	1.63	0.29	7.95	3.89	2.24	8.32	3.11	2.21	6.39	0.87	1.53	0.47	0.61	39.50
elvis14	3.37	3.29	2.95	0.11	2.74	8.82	2.61	3.71	1.89	0.63	8.53	0.47	0.39	39.50
NSDukeFan	2.37	3.29	3.95	1.89	4.74	7.82	2.39	0.29	5.89	0.37	6.53	0.47	0.61	40.61
arnie	3.63	0.29	8.95	1.89	3.74	9.82	1.61	2.71	6.89	1.37	0.47	0.53	0.61	42.50
kAzE	2.63	1.29	5.95	3.89	1.74	4.82	6.61	2.29	2.89	2.37	0.47	1.53	7.39	43.87
Fish80	3.37	6.29	0.05	2.11	5.74	3.82	2.39	6.71	5.89	0.37	6.53	0.47	0.61	44.34
curtis325	2.37	6.29	5.95	0.89	3.74	7.82	4.61	0.71	1.89	1.63	2.53	7.47	0.61	46.50
niveklaen	1.63	3.29	5.95	3.89	5.74	13.82	0.39	6.71	2.89	2.37	0.47	1.53	0.61	49.29
cbarry	1.37	7.29	4.95	0.89	5.74	8.82	8.61	1.71	0.89	1.63	3.53	8.47	0.61	54.50
Troublemaker	0.37	3.29	4.95	1.89	11.74	4.82	13.61	6.71	4.89	0.37	2.53	0.53	0.61	56.29

[pfrduke]

Some notes from the results:

• Everyone underestimated Goldwire's minutes. Goldwire had the third biggest average miss - the board collectively underestimated his minutes by 4.44
• Everyone but one person (David Bunkley) underestimated White's minutes. White had the biggest average miss - the board collectively underestimated his minutes by 5.45
• The shoe explosion meant that everyone but one person (Fish80) overestimated Zion's minutes. He ended up with the second biggest average miss - the board collectively overestimated his minutes by 4.73.
  
  • Had he not gotten injured, however, the board likely would have been right on. He averaged exactly 30 mpg in games he played, the board average was 30.78, and given where we were in our schedule, I suspect he would have played more than 30 mpg in those games, nudging the average up.
  
  
• Everyone but one person (Neals384) underestimated R.J.'s minutes, but the collective average wasn't that far off because everyone had him pretty high. I think people are gunshy about both a) how many minutes the highest minutes player will play and b) who that will be (I don't expect b to be an issue for the 2019-20 contest and would be shocked if Tre is not unanimously projected to lead the team in minutes).
• The board was right on for Tre's minutes - he averaged 32.37 mpg and the board average was 32.72.
• The board average picks were off by 28.86 minutes, which would have finished 10th in our contest.
• There were three double-digit errors in estimates - the biggest was niveklaen, who picked White for 5 mpg (he averaged 18.82); the next two were both by Troublemaker, who was off on picks for DeLaurier (27, actual 16.26) and Bolden (4, actual 17.61).

[jv001]

It had to be luck for me to win any contest on DBR. There are so many more knowledgeable posters who I admire on here. And thanks to pfrduke for the work on this thread. Looking at the roster for 2019-2020 season, the minutes thread is going to be very interesting. GoDuke and 9F.

[MChambers]

It had to be luck for me to win any contest on DBR. There are so many more knowledgeable posters who I admire on here. And thanks to pfrduke for the work on this thread. Looking at the roster for 2019-2020 season, the minutes thread is going to be very interesting. GoDuke and 9F.

Always thought jv001 was Coach K's handle here!

[camion]

Always thought jv001 was Coach K's handle here!

I'm not a conspiracy theorist by any stretch of the imagination, but I always wondered how the supposed "injuries" to certain players always seemed to conveniently help jv001's minutes numbers.


Now I must go and adjust my hat; the tinfoil is a bit crinkled.

[jv001]

I'm not a conspiracy theorist by any stretch of the imagination, but I always wondered how the supposed "injuries" to certain players always seemed to conveniently help jv001's minutes numbers.


Now I must go and adjust my hat; the tinfoil is a bit crinkled.

Hey, if I'm responsible for all the injuries, I'll not be in the minutes thread. We are due for an injury free season. GoDuke!

[Furniture]

It had to be luck for me to win any contest on DBR. There are so many more knowledgeable posters who I admire on here. And thanks to pfrduke for the work on this thread. Looking at the roster for 2019-2020 season, the minutes thread is going to be very interesting. GoDuke and 9F.

WELL DONE SIR (Not allowed to spork you)...