2018-2019 Minutes Contest

[Green Wave Dukie]

How about:

RJ - 34
Tre - 34
Zion - 31
Cam - 31
Javin - 18
Jack - 16
Marques - 14
Alex - 8
Joey - 6.5
Jordan - 3
Justin - 2.5
Antionio - 1
Mike - .5
Brennan - .5

[David Bunkley]

RJ Barrett 32
Cam Reddish 31
Zion Williamson 31
Tre Jones 31
Javin DeLaurier 18
Marquis Bolden 15
Jack White 19
Alex O'Connell 15
Jordan Goldwire 5
Antonio Vrankovic 1
Justin Robinson 1
Others 1

[curtis325]

Here's a guess. I'm hoping to not be last. Please somebody be worse than me.

Zion Williamson 32
Tre Jones 30
RJ Barrett 29
Cam Reddish 29
Javin DeLaurier 20
Alex O'Connell 14
Marquis Bolden 13
Jack White 11
Justin Robinson 9
Jordan Goldwire 6
Antonio Vrancovic 4
Joey Baker 3

[Fish80]

Tre Jones 29
RJ Barrett 29
Cam Reddish 26
Zion Williamson 26
Javin DeLaurier 22
Marques Bolden 20
Alex O'Connell 20
Jack White 15
Joey Baker 7
Jordan Goldwire 2
Antonio Vrankovic 2
Justin Robinson 2

[budwom]

Tre Jones 29
RJ Barrett 29
Cam Reddish 26
Zion Williamson 26
Javin DeLaurier 22
Marques Bolden 20
Alex O'Connell 20
Jack White 15
Joey Baker 7
Jordan Goldwire 2
Antonio Vrankovic 2
Justin Robinson 2

jeezum, I just can't imagine starters getting minutes that low...looking at the Duke site for last year, they had Allen at 36, Bagley 34, Trent34, Carter 27 and Duval 30.
I'll be stunned if our major four guys are anything less than low thirties...

[Fish80]

jeezum, I just can't imagine starters getting minutes that low...looking at the Duke site for last year, they had Allen at 36, Bagley 34, Trent34, Carter 27 and Duval 30.
I'll be stunned if our major four guys are anything less than low thirties...

I'm banking on a plethora of blowouts!

[budwom]

^ OK, blowouts are good!
I just imagine K will go to his Iron Six once we hit 2019 and the starters will play a whole lot...often when K gets in that mode, he doesn't clear the bench until just a few minutes are left, but who knows?

[Troublemaker]

jeezum, I just can't imagine starters getting minutes that low...looking at the Duke site for last year, they had Allen at 36, Bagley 34, Trent34, Carter 27 and Duval 30.
I'll be stunned if our major four guys are anything less than low thirties...

One strategy to winning something like this is to have an entry that's different while everyone else dogpiles around the median. Theoretically, you'd have a higher chance of finishing in first place (and last place).

[BullBlue]

RJ Barrett 34
Zion Williamson 32
Tre Jones 32
Cam Reddish 30
Jack White 17
Javin DeLaurier 16
Marquis Bolden 15
Alex O'Connell 10
Justin Robinson 4
Joey Baker 4
Jordan Goldwire 3
Antonio Vrankovic 2
All Others 1

Jack White is my sleeper for 5th most minutes. I think either Javin or Marquis will start most games, but Jack will log more minutes - ultimate glue guy.

[House P]

One strategy to winning something like this is to have an entry that's different while everyone else dogpiles around the median. Theoretically, you'd have a higher chance of finishing in first place (and last place).

I wanted to take the approach described by Troublemaker, but had trouble coming up with many plausible scenarios* which would deviate all that much from the consensus. It seems to me that there is a pretty strong likelihood that the top 4 Freshmen will lead the team in minutes, while Marques, Javin, Alex, and Jack will battle for the next 4 spots on the depth chart. As such, the largest variation between picks will likely come from how people distribute the minutes between these two groups and predictions about Joey Baker (redshirt, meaningful minutes, token minutes).

Barrett 35
Jones 34
Zion 33
Reddish 28
Javin 20
White 16
Bolden 15
Alex 12
Goldwire 4
Baker 2
Vrank 2
Robinson 1

*In my mind, here are the most plausible scenarios where the minutes distribution end up significantly different from the consensus.

- A significant injury: I can't bring myself to predict this. Even if I could, I would be randomly guessing, anyway.

- Breakout season by a non-Freshmen: It seems somewhat plausible that one of the veterans has a Grayson/Luke-like breakout season and established himself as significantly better than the other guys expected to compete for the 5th stater. In this case, one of the "next 4" could end up averaging 25-30 mpg (potentially at the expense of one of the Freshmen).

- One of the top 4 Freshmen disappoints: We have seen highly rated Freshmen like Derrryk Thornton and Chase Jeter end up with smaller roles than conventional wisdom predicted. Based on what I've seen, I think there is essentially zero chance that RJ or Zion will disappoint. I suppose there is a very small chance that Cam, or especially Tre, ends up being solid, but not outstanding and ends up getting only 20-25 mpg.

- Surprise transfer: If one of the "next 4" players ends up completely outside the rotation, I could imagine a mid-season transfer. Jack and Javin are captains, so I don't see them transferring. That leaves Marques and Alex as potential, but unlikely, transfer candidates.

- Surprise redshirt: I almost predicted a Jordan Goldwire redshirt. However, Jordan isn't likely to get many minutes this year, so correctly guessing an unlikely redshirt probably wouldn't be enough to win the contest anyway.

[elvis14]

Once I put in the winning entry, I don't understand why other entries continued to come in at all. When do I get pie?

[Troublemaker]

Tre	32
RJ	32
Zion	31
Cam	30
Javin	28
Alex	20
Jack	14
Marques	4
JGold	3
Joey	3
Vrank	2
JRob	1

[Troublemaker]

I wanted to take the approach described by Troublemaker, but had trouble coming up with many plausible scenarios* which would deviate all that much from the consensus. It seems to me that there is a pretty strong likelihood that the top 4 Freshmen will lead the team in minutes, while Marques, Javin, Alex, and Jack will battle for the next 4 spots on the depth chart. As such, the largest variation between picks will likely come from how people distribute the minutes between these two groups and predictions about Joey Baker (redshirt, meaningful minutes, token minutes).

Barrett 35
Jones 34
Zion 33
Reddish 28
Javin 20
White 16
Bolden 15
Alex 12
Goldwire 4
Baker 2
Vrank 2
Robinson 1

*In my mind, here are the most plausible scenarios where the minutes distribution end up significantly different from the consensus.

- A significant injury: I can't bring myself to predict this. Even if I could, I would be randomly guessing, anyway.

- Breakout season by a non-Freshmen: It seems somewhat plausible that one of the veterans has a Grayson/Luke-like breakout season and established himself as significantly better than the other guys expected to compete for the 5th stater. In this case, one of the "next 4" could end up averaging 25-30 mpg (potentially at the expense of one of the Freshmen).

- One of the top 4 Freshmen disappoints: We have seen highly rated Freshmen like Derrryk Thornton and Chase Jeter end up with smaller roles than conventional wisdom predicted. Based on what I've seen, I think there is essentially zero chance that RJ or Zion will disappoint. I suppose there is a very small chance that Cam, or especially Tre, ends up being solid, but not outstanding and ends up getting only 20-25 mpg.

- Surprise transfer: If one of the "next 4" players ends up completely outside the rotation, I could imagine a mid-season transfer. Jack and Javin are captains, so I don't see them transferring. That leaves Marques and Alex as potential, but unlikely, transfer candidates.

- Surprise redshirt: I almost predicted a Jordan Goldwire redshirt. However, Jordan isn't likely to get many minutes this year, so correctly guessing an unlikely redshirt probably wouldn't be enough to win the contest anyway.

Ha, I didn't see your post as I was in the middle of writing up my own prediction. But, I can say that I implemented 2 of your 5 scenarios

[NSDukeFan]

Tre	32
RJ	32
Zion	31
Cam	30
Javin	28
Alex	20
Jack	14
Marques	4
JGold	3
Joey	3
Vrank	2
JRob	1

I don’t think putting your results in a pretty chart increases your chances of winning any. 😀

[BandAlum83]

ok, I'll take a total stab:

Jones 34
Barrett 32
Zion 31
Reddish 28
Javin 14
White 16
Bolden 17
Alex 20
Goldwire 3
Baker 2
Vrank 2
Robinson 1

[DallasDevil]

I'm banking on a plethora of blowouts!

Too early to give Fish80 the title? If last night is any indication, the starters averaging less than 30 minutes per game is not such a far-fetched idea.

[Spanarkel]

Tre	32
RJ	32
Zion	31
Cam	30
Javin	28
Alex	20
Jack	14
Marques	4
JGold	3
Joey	3
Vrank	2
JRob	1

I highly respect your opinion on all things Duke Basketball, but I do have to question your thinking that Javin will log 28 mpg this season. Last year he fouled out of 5 games in 12/15/15/17 and 19 minutes. Last night he committed 4 fouls in 11 minutes.
Forget the pies, IF Javin manages to average 28 mpg this season I will buy you and your SO Super Bowel tickets for Mercedes-Benz Stadium in ATL.

[Fish80]

Too early to give Fish80 the title? If last night is any indication, the starters averaging less than 30 minutes per game is not such a far-fetched idea.

It's a long season. Last night was great, but a lot more games to play.

[Troublemaker]

I highly respect your opinion on all things Duke Basketball, but I do have to question your thinking that Javin will log 28 mpg this season. Last year he fouled out of 5 games in 12/15/15/17 and 19 minutes. Last night he committed 4 fouls in 11 minutes.
Forget the pies, IF Javin manages to average 28 mpg this season I will buy you and your SO Super Bowel tickets for Mercedes-Benz Stadium in ATL.

Spanarkel - one must take risks to win this competition, my friend, and that's what I did.

I admit -- it's not looking good for me after one game.

BUT, let's see how things play out from here. I DO expect that Javin will decrease his foul rate this season (despite getting off to a bad start against UK), and I do think he will eventually become the most trusted center on the team by Coach K over Marques.

We'll see if I'm right.

[niveklaen]

One strategy to winning something like this is to have an entry that's different while everyone else dogpiles around the median. Theoretically, you'd have a higher chance of finishing in first place (and last place).

That was my thinking in giving AOC 4 times as many minutes as White. Looks like I am more likely to end up on the last place because of my 'strategic' selection.