2018-2019 Minutes Contest

[pfrduke]

Contest time again! This will remain open until tip-off of the Kentucky game - all posts in before then will count. Pick the minutes per game for each of Duke's players. Minutes per game will be calculated per total team game, not just total games played by the player. In other words, if Joey Baker gets into 10 of the team's 40 games and plays 100 total minutes, his MPG will be 2.5, not 10. cbarry was last year's winner, whose projections were off by a total of 31.5 minutes across the entire team. For reference, here's last year's numbers:

Allen - 35.6
Trent - 33.9
Bagley - 30.2
Duval - 29.8
Carter - 26.9
DeLaurier - 11.3
Bolden - 10.1
O'Connell - 10.1
Goldwire - 4.6
White - 4.3
Robinson - 2.2
Vrankovic - 1.8
Tucker - 0.4
Buckmire - 0.1

(careful readers will note that totals more than 200 - this is because the team played two overtime games. If you want to factor potential overtimes into your projections, more power to you)

[DukieTiger]

Bump... We doin’ this thing?

Tre Jones: 31
RJ Barrett: 31
Cam Reddish: 30
Zion Williamson: 30
Javin DeLaurier: 19
Marques Bolden: 18
Jack White: 14
Alex O’Connell: 14
Joey Baker: 5
Jordan Goldwire: 4
Antonio Vrankovic: 2
Justin Robinson:2

[Spanarkel]

Was waiting for cbarry's projection...

RJ Barrett 33
Tre Jones 32
Cam Reddish 29
Zion 27
Javin DeL 22
Marquese 17
AOC 15
Jack White 10
Antonio V. 6
Jordan G. 4
Joey Baker 3
JRob 2

[NSDukeFan]

R.J. Barrett 32
Zion 30
Reddish 30
Jones 30
DesLauriers 21
Bolden 20
O’Connell 13
White 11
Baker 7
Robinson 2
Vrankovic 2
Goldwire 2

[cbarry]

I don’t want to show my cards yet. My prediction will be in soon...

Was waiting for cbarry's projection...

RJ Barrett 33
Tre Jones 32
Cam Reddish 29
Zion 27
Javin DeL 22
Marquese 17
AOC 15
Jack White 10
Antonio V. 6
Jordan G. 4
Joey Baker 3
JRob 2

[luburch]

RJ - 35
Tre - 34
Cam - 32
Zion - 32
Javin - 20
Alex - 16
Bolden - 16
Jack - 9
Goldwire - 3
Vrank - 3

[whereinthehellami]

RJ - 35
Tre - 34
Cam - 30
Zion - 30
Javin - 18
Alex - 16
Jack - 16
Bolden - 15
Robinson - 2
Goldwire - 2
Vrank - 2

[azzefkram]

My first pass was

Zion 100
Jack 100

but Duke's cloning and rapid growth tech is close but not quite ready yet.

My official take is

RJ 32
Tre 32
Zion 30
Cam 30
Marques 20
Javin 18
Jack 15
AOC 15
Jordan 3
Justin 3
Vrank 2

I have a sneaky feeling that my first pass has a higher probability of being right than my official one does.

[Matches]

T. Jones - 34
R. Barrett - 33
Z. Williamson - 32
C Reddish - 29
J DeLaurier - 18
A O'Connell - 14
M Bolden - 13
J White - 13
J Goldwire - 4
J Robinson - 3
Vrank - 3
J Baker - 3
Other - 1

[elvis14]

RJ Barrett 32
Tre Jones 29
Mount Zion 29
Cam Reddish 28
Javin DeL 19
AOC 17
Marquese 15
Jack White 10
Joey Baker 9
Jordan G. 6
Antonio V. 3
JRob 2
Other 1

[mr. synellinden]

T. Jones - 34

RJB - 34

Zanos - 32

Reddish - 30

DeLaurier - 21

Bolden - 16

AOC - 16

White - 11

Goldwire - 4

Vrank - 2

[luvdahops]

Barrett 35
Jones 34
Reddish 32
Zion 30
DeLaurier 17
Bolden 16
AOC 14
White 11
Baker 5
Vrank 2
Goldwire 2
Robinson 2

[pfrduke]

Results! Congrats to jv001 for winning the contest. All in all we were more accurate this year than last year - last year's winning mark of being off by 31.5 total minutes would have been middle of the pack this year.

	Jones	Barrett	Williamson	Reddish	Delaurier	White	Bolden	O'Connell	Goldwire	Vrankovic	Baker	Robinson	Other	Total
jv001	2.63	1.29	1.95	0.11	3.74	3.82	0.61	1.71	3.89	1.37	1.53	0.53	0.61	23.76
devilsince1977	0.63	1.29	2.95	0.89	3.74	4.82	0.61	0.29	3.89	0.37	3.53	0.53	0.61	24.13
David Bunkley	1.37	3.29	4.95	2.89	1.74	0.18	2.61	1.71	2.89	1.37	0.47	0.53	0.39	24.39
whereinthehellami	1.63	0.29	3.95	1.89	1.74	2.82	2.61	2.71	5.89	0.37	0.47	0.47	0.61	25.45
MChambers	0.37	2.29	3.95	1.11	3.74	4.82	3.39	0.29	3.89	0.63	0.47	0.47	0.39	25.82
House P	1.63	0.29	6.95	0.11	3.74	2.82	2.61	1.29	3.89	0.37	1.53	0.53	0.61	26.34
DCDevil9194	0.63	3.29	0.95	0.11	2.74	3.82	1.61	1.71	3.89	0.37	5.53	1.47	0.61	26.71
azzefkram	0.37	3.29	3.95	1.89	1.74	3.82	2.39	1.71	4.89	0.37	0.47	1.47	0.61	26.97
DallasDevil	0.63	0.29	6.95	4.89	0.26	4.82	0.39	2.29	4.89	0.37	0.47	0.47	0.61	27.34
BullBlue	0.37	1.29	5.95	1.89	0.26	1.82	2.61	3.29	4.89	0.37	3.53	2.47	0.39	29.13
flyingdutchdevil	0.63	1.29	2.95	0.89	6.74	1.82	4.61	2.71	5.89	0.37	0.47	0.47	0.61	29.45
DukieTiger	1.37	4.29	3.95	1.89	2.74	4.82	0.39	0.71	3.89	0.37	4.53	0.47	0.61	30.03
BandAlum83	1.63	3.29	4.95	0.11	2.26	2.82	0.61	6.71	4.89	0.37	1.53	0.53	0.61	30.29
Neals384	3.63	0.71	2.95	2.11	2.74	2.82	4.61	4.71	4.89	0.37	0.47	0.47	0.61	31.08
LaffPirate	0.63	3.29	3.95	0.89	3.74	6.82	0.39	4.71	3.89	1.37	0.47	1.47	0.39	32.03
luvdahops	1.63	0.29	3.95	3.89	0.74	7.82	1.61	0.71	5.89	0.37	4.53	0.47	0.61	32.50
Spanarkel	0.37	2.29	0.95	0.89	5.74	8.82	0.61	1.71	3.89	3.63	2.53	0.47	0.61	32.50
Matches	1.63	2.29	5.95	0.89	1.74	5.82	4.61	0.71	3.89	0.63	2.53	1.47	0.39	32.55
mr. snyellinden	1.63	1.29	5.95	1.89	4.74	7.82	1.61	2.71	3.89	0.37	0.47	1.53	0.61	34.50
HereBeforeCoachK	0.63	2.29	6.95	2.89	0.74	4.82	0.39	4.29	4.89	1.37	3.53	1.47	0.39	34.66
Gooch	0.63	1.29	5.95	2.89	3.74	2.82	3.61	1.29	4.89	2.37	2.53	1.53	1.39	34.92
Duke79UNLV77	0.37	1.29	6.95	1.89	2.74	4.82	1.61	0.71	5.89	2.37	3.53	1.53	1.39	35.08
luburch	1.63	0.29	5.95	3.89	3.74	9.82	1.61	2.71	4.89	0.63	0.47	1.53	0.61	37.76
sagegrouse	4.37	2.29	3.95	4.89	3.74	6.32	0.61	0.79	2.89	1.37	3.53	2.47	0.61	37.82
Green Wave Dukie	1.63	1.29	4.95	2.89	1.74	2.82	3.61	5.29	4.89	1.37	6.03	0.97	0.39	37.87
Furniture	1.63	1.29	5.95	3.89	0.26	3.82	4.61	1.29	6.89	0.37	7.53	0.53	0.61	38.66
timmy c	1.63	0.29	7.95	3.89	2.24	8.32	3.11	2.21	6.39	0.87	1.53	0.47	0.61	39.50
elvis14	3.37	3.29	2.95	0.11	2.74	8.82	2.61	3.71	1.89	0.63	8.53	0.47	0.39	39.50
NSDukeFan	2.37	3.29	3.95	1.89	4.74	7.82	2.39	0.29	5.89	0.37	6.53	0.47	0.61	40.61
arnie	3.63	0.29	8.95	1.89	3.74	9.82	1.61	2.71	6.89	1.37	0.47	0.53	0.61	42.50
kAzE	2.63	1.29	5.95	3.89	1.74	4.82	6.61	2.29	2.89	2.37	0.47	1.53	7.39	43.87
Fish80	3.37	6.29	0.05	2.11	5.74	3.82	2.39	6.71	5.89	0.37	6.53	0.47	0.61	44.34
curtis325	2.37	6.29	5.95	0.89	3.74	7.82	4.61	0.71	1.89	1.63	2.53	7.47	0.61	46.50
niveklaen	1.63	3.29	5.95	3.89	5.74	13.82	0.39	6.71	2.89	2.37	0.47	1.53	0.61	49.29
cbarry	1.37	7.29	4.95	0.89	5.74	8.82	8.61	1.71	0.89	1.63	3.53	8.47	0.61	54.50
Troublemaker	0.37	3.29	4.95	1.89	11.74	4.82	13.61	6.71	4.89	0.37	2.53	0.53	0.61	56.29

[pfrduke]

Some notes from the results:

• Everyone underestimated Goldwire's minutes. Goldwire had the third biggest average miss - the board collectively underestimated his minutes by 4.44
• Everyone but one person (David Bunkley) underestimated White's minutes. White had the biggest average miss - the board collectively underestimated his minutes by 5.45
• The shoe explosion meant that everyone but one person (Fish80) overestimated Zion's minutes. He ended up with the second biggest average miss - the board collectively overestimated his minutes by 4.73.
  
  • Had he not gotten injured, however, the board likely would have been right on. He averaged exactly 30 mpg in games he played, the board average was 30.78, and given where we were in our schedule, I suspect he would have played more than 30 mpg in those games, nudging the average up.
  
  
• Everyone but one person (Neals384) underestimated R.J.'s minutes, but the collective average wasn't that far off because everyone had him pretty high. I think people are gunshy about both a) how many minutes the highest minutes player will play and b) who that will be (I don't expect b to be an issue for the 2019-20 contest and would be shocked if Tre is not unanimously projected to lead the team in minutes).
• The board was right on for Tre's minutes - he averaged 32.37 mpg and the board average was 32.72.
• The board average picks were off by 28.86 minutes, which would have finished 10th in our contest.
• There were three double-digit errors in estimates - the biggest was niveklaen, who picked White for 5 mpg (he averaged 18.82); the next two were both by Troublemaker, who was off on picks for DeLaurier (27, actual 16.26) and Bolden (4, actual 17.61).

[jv001]

It had to be luck for me to win any contest on DBR. There are so many more knowledgeable posters who I admire on here. And thanks to pfrduke for the work on this thread. Looking at the roster for 2019-2020 season, the minutes thread is going to be very interesting. GoDuke and 9F.

[MChambers]

It had to be luck for me to win any contest on DBR. There are so many more knowledgeable posters who I admire on here. And thanks to pfrduke for the work on this thread. Looking at the roster for 2019-2020 season, the minutes thread is going to be very interesting. GoDuke and 9F.

Always thought jv001 was Coach K's handle here!

[camion]

Always thought jv001 was Coach K's handle here!

I'm not a conspiracy theorist by any stretch of the imagination, but I always wondered how the supposed "injuries" to certain players always seemed to conveniently help jv001's minutes numbers.


Now I must go and adjust my hat; the tinfoil is a bit crinkled.

[jv001]

I'm not a conspiracy theorist by any stretch of the imagination, but I always wondered how the supposed "injuries" to certain players always seemed to conveniently help jv001's minutes numbers.


Now I must go and adjust my hat; the tinfoil is a bit crinkled.

Hey, if I'm responsible for all the injuries, I'll not be in the minutes thread. We are due for an injury free season. GoDuke!

[Furniture]

It had to be luck for me to win any contest on DBR. There are so many more knowledgeable posters who I admire on here. And thanks to pfrduke for the work on this thread. Looking at the roster for 2019-2020 season, the minutes thread is going to be very interesting. GoDuke and 9F.

WELL DONE SIR (Not allowed to spork you)...

[UrinalCake]

Feels like games missed due to injury should not count towards the total.