KenPom 2019

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think you might be slightly influenced by your heavily frosh laden teams from the past 4-5 seasons. This team is different. The typical chasm in talent between a top 3 prospect and a top 10-20 prospect is huuuuuuuuuuuuge. The former are guys that become NBA all-stars. These guys can dominate in college from day 1. Now, if you have just ONE of those players, and surround them with top 5-25 guys, you're probably not talented enough to overcome some "stumbles" w/r/t continuity, team chemistry, learning defense, etc. If you have 3 of those guys? The margin for error becomes OH SO MUCH greater. I'm sure many here feel differently after first hand witnessing the "struggles" of past Duke "uber talented" teams. But I'm telling you right now, that barring injury issues (pre-bolding that so someone doesn't have to bother when they inevitably respond with quotes and say, "that's it right there"), this Duke team is on another level from a talent standpoint. An "omega-talented" team, if I can coin a phrase.

All I'm saying is - this team could have the EXACT same issues with learning defense, chemistry, etc as the previous ones. They WILL NOT be losing head-scratchers to Miami/NC State/BC/St Johns/etc. You guys might drop one to KY tomorrow, as I think they're a legit top 5 team, and those can go either way. Don't let that temper your enthusiasm or expectations. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Duke will have absolutely ZERO "wtf" losses this year. Just waaaaaaaaaaay too much talent. Enough that the 14-18 Duke teams would go, "DAMN! That's a lot of talent!"


-Wahoo"On rereading I realized that I might have set the record for unnecessary overuse of quotation marks in one post"2000

I think you're underestimating the impact of youth. The 2015 team - stacked with talent and some amazing leadership in Cook and Jefferson - got murdered by Miami at home. And that team had the best big man in the country, on of the most productive PGs in the country, a 15ppg senior leader, and a Swiss-army knife in Winslow.

This year, there will be a "WTF" loss (and please patent this phrase. It's amazing).

Every year, we tell ourselves this year is unstoppable. In 2016-17, we had the top 2 players in the country (and this time 2 years ago, many were saying Giles would be 100% by February/March) coupled with Grayson, Jefferson, and countless OADs. In 2017-18, we thought we had the most perfect starting 5 with the top player at 4 positions and Grayson as our senior leader who can score 20 a game. This year, we are staying that ESPN's 1-3 top players means we have too much talent. But we lack depth and we lack experience. And those will lead to at least one "WTF" loss.

[BandAlum83]

You mean between UNC and UVA? Duke is the most talented, but they will have plenty of stumbles in the ACC. Duke may have a chance to win, but it's a small chance.

UVA is winning the reg ACC. I can't really see any scenario where that doesn't happen. UNC is good, and Little is the real deal, but I don't see them competing with the uber disciplined team that is UVA.

I really don't care. I just want to be sure we get the double bye!

[BandAlum83]

I think you might be slightly influenced by your heavily frosh laden teams from the past 4-5 seasons. This team is different. The typical chasm in talent between a top 3 prospect and a top 10-20 prospect is huuuuuuuuuuuuge. The former are guys that become NBA all-stars. These guys can dominate in college from day 1. Now, if you have just ONE of those players, and surround them with top 5-25 guys, you're probably not talented enough to overcome some "stumbles" w/r/t continuity, team chemistry, learning defense, etc. If you have 3 of those guys? The margin for error becomes OH SO MUCH greater. I'm sure many here feel differently after first hand witnessing the "struggles" of past Duke "uber talented" teams. But I'm telling you right now, that barring injury issues (pre-bolding that so someone doesn't have to bother when they inevitably respond with quotes and say, "that's it right there"), this Duke team is on another level from a talent standpoint. An "omega-talented" team, if I can coin a phrase.

All I'm saying is - this team could have the EXACT same issues with learning defense, chemistry, etc as the previous ones. They WILL NOT be losing head-scratchers to Miami/NC State/BC/St Johns/etc. You guys might drop one to KY tomorrow, as I think they're a legit top 5 team, and those can go either way. Don't let that temper your enthusiasm or expectations. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Duke will have absolutely ZERO "wtf" losses this year. Just waaaaaaaaaaay too much talent. Enough that the 14-18 Duke teams would go, "DAMN! That's a lot of talent!"


-Wahoo"On rereading I realized that I might have set the record for unnecessary overuse of quotation marks in one post"2000

I am completely with you on this. We are definitely tempering expectations.

While we do that, we are all secretly thinking about that mythical 40-0 season, because really....the potential top 3 picks in the next NBA draft, plus a legit pass-first, quality on-ball defending PG? Are you freaking kidding me?

[Troublemaker]

Even great veteran teams will suffer a WTF loss. Heck, UVA's only loss last season was at home to VaTech, after having beaten them in Blacksburg by 26 the month prior.

So, Wahoo2000 is technically wrong just because almost any team will suffer a WTF loss or two. But I am with Wahoo2000 in spirit in that I think this Duke team will be more consistent than some other recent versions. I think this team's talent fits how Coach K wants to play basketball like a glove, and I believe in the power of the steady, true PG.

[kAzE]

Even great veteran teams will suffer a WTF loss. Heck, UVA's only loss last season was at home to VaTech, after having beaten them in Blacksburg by 26 the month prior.

So, Wahoo2000 is technically wrong just because almost any team will suffer a WTF loss or two. But I am with Wahoo2000 in spirit in that I think this Duke team will be more consistent than some other recent versions. I think this team's talent fits how Coach K wants to play basketball like a glove, and I believe in the power of the steady, true PG.

UMBC was pretty "WTF"

Sorry, I had to go there

[Troublemaker]

UVA is winning the reg ACC. I can't really see any scenario where that doesn't happen.

You take UVA to be the 1 seed in the ACC tourney, and I'll take the field. Bet a pie?

FDD, you want that pie bet or not? If, instead, you want to say that you were a bit hasty in not being able to envision "any scenario," nobody will think any less of you.

[NSDukeFan]

I think you're underestimating the impact of youth. The 2015 team - stacked with talent and some amazing leadership in Cook and Jefferson - got murdered by Miami at home. And that team had the best big man in the country, on of the most productive PGs in the country, a 15ppg senior leader, and a Swiss-army knife in Winslow.

This year, there will be a "WTF" loss (and please patent this phrase. It's amazing).

Every year, we tell ourselves this year is unstoppable. In 2016-17, we had the top 2 players in the country (and this time 2 years ago, many were saying Giles would be 100% by February/March) coupled with Grayson, Jefferson, and countless OADs. In 2017-18, we thought we had the most perfect starting 5 with the top player at 4 positions and Grayson as our senior leader who can score 20 a game. This year, we are staying that ESPN's 1-3 top players means we have too much talent. But we lack depth and we lack experience. And those will lead to at least one "WTF" loss.

I only thought we were unstoppable in 2010-2011 and 2016-17, when we had great talent and experience. Injuries, grrrr!

[Wahoo2000]

I think you might be slightly influenced by your heavily frosh laden teams from the past 4-5 seasons. This team is different. The typical chasm in talent between a top 3 prospect and a top 10-20 prospect is huuuuuuuuuuuuge. The former are guys that become NBA all-stars. These guys can dominate in college from day 1. Now, if you have just ONE of those players, and surround them with top 5-25 guys, you're probably not talented enough to overcome some "stumbles" w/r/t continuity, team chemistry, learning defense, etc. If you have 3 of those guys? The margin for error becomes OH SO MUCH greater. I'm sure many here feel differently after first hand witnessing the "struggles" of past Duke "uber talented" teams. But I'm telling you right now, that barring injury issues (pre-bolding that so someone doesn't have to bother when they inevitably respond with quotes and say, "that's it right there"), this Duke team is on another level from a talent standpoint. An "omega-talented" team, if I can coin a phrase.

All I'm saying is - this team could have the EXACT same issues with learning defense, chemistry, etc as the previous ones. They WILL NOT be losing head-scratchers to Miami/NC State/BC/St Johns/etc. You guys might drop one to KY tomorrow, as I think they're a legit top 5 team, and those can go either way. Don't let that temper your enthusiasm or expectations. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Duke will have absolutely ZERO "wtf" losses this year. Just waaaaaaaaaaay too much talent. Enough that the 14-18 Duke teams would go, "DAMN! That's a lot of talent!"


-Wahoo"On rereading I realized that I might have set the record for unnecessary overuse of quotation marks in one post"2000

I'm just going to leave this riiiiight here after watching this opener.

Again, you CANNOT compare this Duke team to any of the other recent ones. This is like having THREE Tatums, or THREE Ingrams, or THREE Bagleys. Not those elite guys surrounded by other "pretty good" (and by pretty good, I mean still potential lottery pick players) guys.

I WILL say that I look forward to seeing our matchup again.
Guy on Jones
Jerome on Reddish
Key on Barrett
Hunter on Zion
Salt v Bolden
I don't think any team in the nation will hold Duke under 70, but if there is one, we're probably it. Until then - good health and good luck (though it doesn't look like you'll need the luck!)

[DavidBenAkiva]

Something interesting is happening on KenPom and the other advanced analytics ranking systems, AKA dork polls. Duke is pulling ahead of the field.

The trend started before the weekend. As of this morning (12/10), Duke's adjusted efficiency margin on KenPom is far ahead of the second place team, Kansas. In fact, the difference between Duke and Kansas is about the same as the difference between Kansas and the 11th-placed team, Virginia Tech. A lot of this is driven by Duke's stellar defensive effort this season. The combination of blocked shots, steals, and shutting down the shooting percentages of opponents has Duke with both a top 5 offense and defense in the country.

It's a similar story on Bart Torvik, who runs a free version of what KenPom does. There, Torvik has Duke at #1 with Michigan at #2 by a healthy gap. Team Rankings also runs a predictive rankings model and has Duke at #1, as does Sagarin. After Gonzaga lost, Duke also took the #1 spot on ESPN's BPI. So the stats are converging that this is a special team. I sure hope that Duke can keep it up.

[MChambers]

I'm just going to leave this riiiiight here after watching this opener.

Again, you CANNOT compare this Duke team to any of the other recent ones. This is like having THREE Tatums, or THREE Ingrams, or THREE Bagleys. Not those elite guys surrounded by other "pretty good" (and by pretty good, I mean still potential lottery pick players) guys.

I WILL say that I look forward to seeing our matchup again.
Guy on Jones
Jerome on Reddish
Key on Barrett
Hunter on Zion
Salt v Bolden
I don't think any team in the nation will hold Duke under 70, but if there is one, we're probably it. Until then - good health and good luck (though it doesn't look like you'll need the luck!)

What about Clark? Isn't he playing much more than Key? So you would put Clark on Jones, I assume, and then one of Guy or Jerome has to be on Barrett, right?

Or do you think Clark just gets far fewer minutes against Duke?

[freshmanjs]

A lot of this is driven by Duke's stellar defensive effort this season. The combination of blocked shots, steals, and shutting down the shooting percentages of opponents has Duke with both a top 5 offense and defense in the country.

In Kenpom, the gap between Duke and Kansas is driven more by offense than defense. #3 Virginia and #4 Michigan have better ranked defense than Duke.

Our separation vs. Gonzaga and Nevada is driven by defense right now.

Of course, it's the combination that has us at the top.

[sagegrouse]

You mean between UNC and UVA? Duke is the most talented, but they will have plenty of stumbles in the ACC. Duke may have a chance to win, but it's a small chance.

UVA is winning the reg ACC. I can't really see any scenario where that doesn't happen. UNC is good, and Little is the real deal, but I don't see them competing with the uber disciplined team that is UVA.

Oh my! Literally untrue. "Any scenario?" How about Duke wins at Cameron and in Charlottesville? Not possible? I bet there are UVa fans that think it is highly possible.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Oh my! Literally untrue. "Any scenario?" How about Duke wins at Cameron and in Charlottesville? Not possible? I bet there are UVa fans that think it is highly possible.

I wonder if that poster was one of several who was saying that UK was going to beat us by 15 or so before the season opener....

[Wahoo2000]

What about Clark? Isn't he playing much more than Key? So you would put Clark on Jones, I assume, and then one of Guy or Jerome has to be on Barrett, right?

Or do you think Clark just gets far fewer minutes against Duke?

A lot has happened since my post from early Nov.

1 - I don't think UVA is playing anywhere nearly as defensively sound as I'd expected with so many returnees. Could be partly because we've added some wrinkles (actually running some press). Haven't seen a UVA team this "shaky" on D (if shaky means more like a top 5-10ish D rather than clear cut #1 or #2) since the 1st half of Brogdon's last year. We didn't really start to lock in defensively until around the second pass through the ACC schedule. Also similar to that team, our offense has been much better than in most seasons - in fact, if we shot even a reasonable percentage on the 6-7 wide open 3s we got vs VCU yesterday, we're probably even better.
2 - Clark has really emerged as a major rotation player - probably 4th in the playing time "pecking order" after Jerome/Guy/Hunter. He is an absolute bulldog defensively. I've yet to see him really get beaten off the bounce, and even forced a 10 second violation with absolutely NO help, including having to get around a screen in the backcourt. He IS set to have wrist surgery today, and it's an unknown how long he'll be out. I'd assume at least 3-4 weeks and prob return with a cast (like the one he played with yesterday) for a few weeks after that.
3 - Not sure how we'll match up with Duke if both Clark and Guy play major minutes. Could be a field day for whichever of Barrett/Reddish draw Guy as a defender. Guy is solid fundamentally, but not the quickest, biggest, or strongest. Honestly, if it doesn't "click" a little better for Key and Diakite by then, I think we're in BIG trouble unless we can really just pack the paint and hope Duke shoots like 25% from 3.

[Troublemaker]

What about Clark? Isn't he playing much more than Key? So you would put Clark on Jones, I assume, and then one of Guy or Jerome has to be on Barrett, right?

Or do you think Clark just gets far fewer minutes against Duke?

Oh my! Literally untrue. "Any scenario?" How about Duke wins at Cameron and in Charlottesville? Not possible? I bet there are UVa fans that think it is highly possible.

It should be noted that some of these posts were made more than a month ago.

Hopefully FDD's prediction doesn't age well.

Something interesting is happening on KenPom and the other advanced analytics ranking systems, AKA dork polls. Duke is pulling ahead of the field.

The trend started before the weekend. As of this morning (12/10), Duke's adjusted efficiency margin on KenPom is far ahead of the second place team, Kansas. In fact, the difference between Duke and Kansas is about the same as the difference between Kansas and the 11th-placed team, Virginia Tech. A lot of this is driven by Duke's stellar defensive effort this season. The combination of blocked shots, steals, and shutting down the shooting percentages of opponents has Duke with both a top 5 offense and defense in the country.

It's a similar story on Bart Torvik, who runs a free version of what KenPom does. There, Torvik has Duke at #1 with Michigan at #2 by a healthy gap. Team Rankings also runs a predictive rankings model and has Duke at #1, as does Sagarin. After Gonzaga lost, Duke also took the #1 spot on ESPN's BPI. So the stats are converging that this is a special team. I sure hope that Duke can keep it up.

Thanks for pointing this out, DBA. I guess the question then becomes: do we believe it? Do we believe that Duke belongs in a tier of its own at the top of college basketball? I'm open to having my mind changed down the line, but as of now, my answer is "No." Certainly I believe we're a top-tier team but I believe there are other occupants of that tier including Michigan, UVA, maybe Kansas when healthy, maybe Nevada, maybe Gonzaga when Tillie returns. I think what may be happening statistically is that Duke is better at blowing teams out than other top-tier teams because of our pressure defense and devastating transition game, but if Michigan and Duke played a 7-game series, I would consider that to be a coin-flip series at this point, not advantage Duke.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I guess the question then becomes: do we believe it? Do we believe that Duke belongs in a tier of its own at the top of college basketball? I'm open to having my mind changed down the line, but as of now, my answer is "No." Certainly I believe we're a top-tier team but I believe there are other occupants of that tier including Michigan, UVA, maybe Kansas when healthy, maybe Nevada, maybe Gonzaga when Tillie returns. I think what may be happening statistically is that Duke is better at blowing teams out than other top-tier teams because of our pressure defense and devastating transition game, but if Michigan and Duke played a 7-game series, I would consider that to be a coin-flip series at this point, not advantage Duke.

You're on a roll...another great post! (I'll try and spork). Great point about being better at blowing people out...which will help Kenpom, but NET, not so much. I'm thinking I'm a little more willing to call Duke top tier than you are at this point, but your points are well written and well taken.

[Troublemaker]

3 - Not sure how we'll match up with Duke if both Clark and Guy play major minutes. Could be a field day for whichever of Barrett/Reddish draw Guy as a defender. Guy is solid fundamentally, but not the quickest, biggest, or strongest. Honestly, if it doesn't "click" a little better for Key and Diakite by then, I think we're in BIG trouble unless we can really just pack the paint and hope Duke shoots like 25% from 3.

Yeah, there's no way you guys play that small when it's time to play Duke. With Hunter and Key, you can match up defensively with Duke's big NBA wings better than the almost any school in the country. It'd be mismanagement not to give Key starter's minutes against Duke, which I don't expect Bennett will be guilty of. Can you imagine Clark or Guy trying to keep Barrett off the boards? (RJ's rebounding prowess is perhaps the most underrated skill on Duke's team right now).

[DavidBenAkiva]

You're on a roll...another great post! (I'll try and spork). Great point about being better at blowing people out...which will help Kenpom, but NET, not so much. I'm thinking I'm a little more willing to call Duke top tier than you are at this point, but your points are well written and well taken.

Ditto. As far as we are willing to trust the stats, Duke is a very good team. Even with the poor shooting of late, we are blowing out teams by 20+. More impressively, we are absolutely shutting down opposing NBA-level prospects. Romeo Langford was completely ineffective against Duke. Miye Oni of Yale is a legit NBA prospect and he was held to 12 points and looked completely outmatched against R.J. Barrett and crew. That will be a test for the offense as the Red Raiders have been playing defense at a high level. They are among the leaders in the nation in effective field goal defense. I hope Duke can add another signature neutral court victory to their resume.

[JasonEvans]

Thanks for pointing this out, DBA. I guess the question then becomes: do we believe it? Do we believe that Duke belongs in a tier of its own at the top of college basketball?

It is worth noting that the "Duke is on a different level" thing is not just happening on KenPom. In Sagarin's rankings, Duke is a massive 4.6 points ahead of 2nd place Michigan State. That's the same as the gap between MSU and the #13 team in the Sagarin rankings.

Worth noting that ESPN's BPI is not showing the same kind of "Duke and everyone else" gap. Duke is #1, but only by 0.3 over#2 UVA. The gap between UVA and #3 UNC is 0.7.

I am inclined to agree with my Troublemaking friend that it is too soon to say that Duke is on a different level from the rest of the sport. There simply have not been enough games between top tier teams to know that. But, once Duke plays Texas Tech (12/20), and then runs that @FSU (1/12), Syr (1/14), UVA (1/18) mini-gauntlet we will probably have enough evidence to really know if this is a prohibitive NCAA favorite or just one of several teams that seem like they have a decent shot at winning the title.

-Jason "strap in folks... it could be a fun ride!" Evans

[Ian]

Under Coach K, there have only been 3 teams where you could say, "if they don't win the title it's a major disappointment", thoses teams are 1992, 1999, and 2002.
Three other teams come close to fitting that description. 2001, 2011, and 1986, but don't quite make it. 2001 and 2011 would have had those expectations healthy but because of the injuries to Boozer and Irving their expectations got somewhat diminished, and 1986 because it was Coach K's first great team fans were more "just happy to be here" and not disappointed with anything.

I think there is a good chance that this team is the 4th team to have that kind of pressure on them.