KenPom 2019

[dukelion]

Didn't see a 2019 Dork Poll thread so feel free to start one.

Anyways....KenPom has us at #2 and the ACC heavily repped in the top 25.

And what's up with Nevada?

https://kenpom.com

[Kedsy]

And what's up with Nevada?

https://kenpom.com

Top 25 and Sweet 16 team returns 5 of top 6 minute-getters from last season and brings in a top 20 recruit. #6 might be a bit high, but you wouldn't flinch if they were in the #10 to #15 range, would you?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Top 25 and Sweet 16 team returns 5 of top 6 minute-getters from last season and brings in a top 20 recruit. #6 might be a bit high, but you wouldn't flinch if they were in the #10 to #15 range, would you?

Yep, Nevada's real...

[mgtr]

And the PAC-12 fell out of bed! Amazing - there is Oregon and then you have to look in the 40s for them. What would Bill Walton say?

[Troublemaker]

Kansas' projection is somewhat interesting. While many places have them #1, here kenpom is projecting dominance from the Jawhawks. #2 offensive team, #1 defensive team. The difference between their projected efficiency margin and the #2 team Duke's is approximately the difference between Duke and the #10 team WVU, or the difference between WVU and the #26 team Texas Tech.

[rasputin]

And the PAC-12 fell out of bed! Amazing - there is Oregon and then you have to look in the 40s for them. What would Bill Walton say?

Walton would say a lot, but not about the game he's broadcasting.

[Wahoo2000]

And the PAC-12 fell out of bed! Amazing - there is Oregon and then you have to look in the 40s for them. What would Bill Walton say?

Not impossible that some mid-majors could send more teams to the tourney than the "conference of champions".

[johnb]

Didn't see a 2019 Dork Poll thread so feel free to start one.

Anyways...KenPom has us at #2 and the ACC heavily repped in the top 25.

And what's up with Nevada?

https://kenpom.com

I don't ask for much, Santa, but please keep our KenPom ranking above UNC, Villanova, and Virginia throughout the year. And, while you're at it, keep Kentucky below Nevada.

[Wahoo2000]

I don't ask for much, Santa, but please keep our KenPom ranking above UNC, Villanova, and Virginia throughout the year. And, while you're at it, keep Kentucky below Nevada.

If you beat UK to start the season, you'll go a long way towards getting your wishes (at least through Christmas and 2018).

[kAzE]

Not impossible that some mid-majors could send more teams to the tourney than the "conference of champions".

*NIT champions

[flyingdutchdevil]

I don't ask for much, Santa, but please keep our KenPom ranking above UNC, Villanova, and Virginia throughout the year. And, while you're at it, keep Kentucky below Nevada.

I wouldn't put your money on us being above Virginia...

[TexHawk]

Kansas' projection is somewhat interesting. While many places have them #1, here kenpom is projecting dominance from the Jawhawks. #2 offensive team, #1 defensive team. The difference between their projected efficiency margin and the #2 team Duke's is approximately the difference between Duke and the #10 team WVU, or the difference between WVU and the #26 team Texas Tech.

I think Kenpom is factoring transfers into his preseason formula for the first time this year, and 60% of KU's likely starting 5 are transfers. (And one of the others is a freshman.) I have a feeling that this projection is going to be (at least) mildly off for that reason.

Dedric Lawson is going to be very good, but I'd be surprised if he puts up the same stats at KU that he did at Memphis. That would be Bagley/Ayton-like numbers, which would be a little aggressive imo.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I wouldn't put your money on us being above Virginia...

...perhaps, but I would put money on us playing longer than Virginia...

[House P]

Based on individual game predictions, KenPom estimates that there is about a 40% chance that Duke's current non-conference home winning streak will end this season.

This is based primarily on the fact that Duke plays home games against two teams ranked in KenPom's preseason top 40 (Indiana and St. Johns) and three home games against teams ranked between 100 and 150 (Eastern Michigan, Yale, and Princeton).

Here is how KenPom currently estimates Duke odds of winning each home game.

Opponent	KenPom Rank	Predicted Point Spread	Chance of Duke Winning
Indiana	29	Duke -9	81%
St. Johns	39	Duke -12	86%
E Michigan	113	Duke -18	95%
Yale	116	Duke -19	96%
Princeton	148	Duke -21	97%
Hartford	197	Duke -22	99%
Army	223	Duke -26	99%
Stetson	334	Duke -34	99.9%

The obvious caveat is that ratings pre-season ratings should probably be taken with a grain of salt.

For example, consider last season's games vs Elon and NC State. Based on KenPom's preseason rankings, both teams appeared to be of similar strength (Elon #106, NC State #109). However, Elon went on to have a disappointing 14-18 season and ended the year ranked #247 by KenPom. NC State went on to have a solid year, making the NCAA tournament with a final KenPom ranking of #42.

[Wahoo2000]

Kenpom updated today to reflect late additions via RS waivers, etc. Addition of Braxton Key pushed UVa just a fingernail above Duke and UNC and into the #2 spot.

What's REALLY interesting is that the 3 teams are within .18 Adjusted Efficiency Margin points of each other... meaning that a neutral floor contest among any of them is basically a pickem, or a 1pt line at most. With quality PROJECTING to be so equal, this could be the FIRST time (despite TONS of yelling and screaming over the past few seasons... I don't want to get into the data and metrics of it all, you just have to "trust me" ) that conference SOS really COULD influence who becomes the regular season champion.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Kenpom updated today to reflect late additions via RS waivers, etc. Addition of Braxton Key pushed UVa just a fingernail above Duke and UNC and into the #2 spot.

What's REALLY interesting is that the 3 teams are within .18 Adjusted Efficiency Margin points of each other... meaning that a neutral floor contest among any of them is basically a pickem, or a 1pt line at most. With quality PROJECTING to be so equal, this could be the FIRST time (despite TONS of yelling and screaming over the past few seasons... I don't want to get into the data and metrics of it all, you just have to "trust me" ) that conference SOS really COULD influence who becomes the regular season champion.

You mean between UNC and UVA? Duke is the most talented, but they will have plenty of stumbles in the ACC. Duke may have a chance to win, but it's a small chance.

UVA is winning the reg ACC. I can't really see any scenario where that doesn't happen. UNC is good, and Little is the real deal, but I don't see them competing with the uber disciplined team that is UVA.

[Troublemaker]

You mean between UNC and UVA? Duke is the most talented, but they will have plenty of stumbles in the ACC. Duke may have a chance to win, but it's a small chance.

UVA is winning the reg ACC. I can't really see any scenario where that doesn't happen. UNC is good, and Little is the real deal, but I don't see them competing with the uber disciplined team that is UVA.

You take UVA to be the 1 seed in the ACC tourney, and I'll take the field. Bet a pie?

[Wahoo2000]

You mean between UNC and UVA? Duke is the most talented, but they will have plenty of stumbles in the ACC. Duke may have a chance to win, but it's a small chance.

UVA is winning the reg ACC. I can't really see any scenario where that doesn't happen. UNC is good, and Little is the real deal, but I don't see them competing with the uber disciplined team that is UVA.

I think you might be slightly influenced by your heavily frosh laden teams from the past 4-5 seasons. This team is different. The typical chasm in talent between a top 3 prospect and a top 10-20 prospect is huuuuuuuuuuuuge. The former are guys that become NBA all-stars. These guys can dominate in college from day 1. Now, if you have just ONE of those players, and surround them with top 5-25 guys, you're probably not talented enough to overcome some "stumbles" w/r/t continuity, team chemistry, learning defense, etc. If you have 3 of those guys? The margin for error becomes OH SO MUCH greater. I'm sure many here feel differently after first hand witnessing the "struggles" of past Duke "uber talented" teams. But I'm telling you right now, that barring injury issues (pre-bolding that so someone doesn't have to bother when they inevitably respond with quotes and say, "that's it right there"), this Duke team is on another level from a talent standpoint. An "omega-talented" team, if I can coin a phrase.

All I'm saying is - this team could have the EXACT same issues with learning defense, chemistry, etc as the previous ones. They WILL NOT be losing head-scratchers to Miami/NC State/BC/St Johns/etc. You guys might drop one to KY tomorrow, as I think they're a legit top 5 team, and those can go either way. Don't let that temper your enthusiasm or expectations. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Duke will have absolutely ZERO "wtf" losses this year. Just waaaaaaaaaaay too much talent. Enough that the 14-18 Duke teams would go, "DAMN! That's a lot of talent!"


-Wahoo"On rereading I realized that I might have set the record for unnecessary overuse of quotation marks in one post"2000

[kAzE]

All I'm saying is - this team could have the EXACT same issues with learning defense, chemistry, etc as the previous ones. They WILL NOT be losing head-scratchers to Miami/NC State/BC/St Johns/etc. You guys might drop one to KY tomorrow, as I think they're a legit top 5 team, and those can go either way. Don't let that temper your enthusiasm or expectations. I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Duke will have absolutely ZERO "wtf" losses this year. Just waaaaaaaaaaay too much talent. Enough that the 14-18 Duke teams would go, "DAMN! That's a lot of talent!"


-Wahoo"On rereading I realized that I might have set the record for unnecessary overuse of quotation marks in one post"2000

I'd bet against it. We will definitely have at least 1 or 2 really dumb losses this year. Maybe not to Yale or Princeton at home, but it always happens, when you least expect it. But it won't be something to stress over. We've basically conceded all regular season titles with the OAD recruiting strategy. Even the 2014-15 team had a crazy bad WTF loss on the road against a garbage NC State team.

I'm looking hard at that first true road game @ Wake Forest. I think that would absolutely qualify as a "WTF" loss.

[budwom]

I'd bet against it. We will definitely have at least 1 or 2 really dumb losses this year. Maybe not to Yale or Princeton at home, but it always happens, when you least expect it. But it won't be something to stress over. We've basically conceded all regular season titles with the OAD recruiting strategy. Even the 2014-15 team had a crazy bad WTF loss on the road against a garbage NC State team.

I'm looking hard at that first true road game @ Wake Forest. I think that would absolutely qualify as a "WTF" loss.

I agree 100%, Kaze...could be an epic season (or not), but there will most assuredly be ugly bumps in the road...not easy hitting the road in the ACC with a gang of youngsters, their fine talent notwithstanding.
I don't even know our schedule all that well nor our opponents; rosters, but it rarely seems easy going to places like Tallahassee, Raleigh, Clemmons et al...