G League to offer contracts to top high schoolers

[Blue in the Face]

As KaZe pointed out upthread, the cost of living (housing, food, utilities, ESPN) will be out of pocket expenses. That $125,000 is now down to $95,000.

G League players receive housing. Presumably that includes some level of utilities, though how much, if any, cable/internet/streaming is covered I have no idea.

[House P]

This idea has been repeated a number of times on this thread without much resistance. Is it a given that every NBA front office is incapable of comparing (1) a solid but unspectacular season against mature, established players in the G-League, against (2) a season of big stat lines against lower tier competition? Are NBA GMs, just like everyday fans, so enamored by the glitz of the college basketball season and bored by the obscure but superior play in the G-League?

Maybe. But some of them, I'd venture, are actually good at their jobs. I guess the question is whether the prospective "Select" prospects agree.

I found this curious as well. Initially, it wouldn't surprise me if some GMs are poor at evaluating the G League performance of 18 year olds. However, as analytic-focused as front offices are these days, I can't imagine that would last long. To me, the argument is not all that different from saying Wendell should have gone to Harvard instead of risking the chance of exposing his weaknesses at Duke.

In the end, it is in the NBA's interest to have top prospects playing against the best possible competition. If the best competition is in the G League, I could even imagine a not too distant scenario where top prospects are strongly encouraged to play in the G League if they don't want to risk their draft status by raising questions about the level of competition they faced in college.

[phaedrus]

YES, because there are major misses on first round draftees EVERY SINGLE YEAR

Of course, but that simply begs the question whether the major misses will be increased or reduced as a result of having some players in the G-League. It could be that many major misses happen because college play is not a good benchmark for NBA success, and that one year of G-League play will be a better predictor.

If I were a GM, I'd consider an 18 year old who hangs with the best in the G-League - even if not dominant - a far surer thing than a college freshman who puts up big numbers against physically overmatched opponents. Consider Marvin Bagley, for example. Duke plays one of the best schedules every year, but even so, how many NBA-quality big men did he play against all year?

If I were a prospect, however, I think I'd have to weigh how my skills and talent are likely to be exhibited in each forum. If I think I can put up huge numbers for a high-profile program like Bagley did, maybe college is the best place. But if I'm a player whose skills and talent seem to be a better fit for the NBA than college, maybe I can show that better in the G-League.

[elvis14]

If you are a top 10 prospect -- a guy certain to be one and done -- aside from the potential notoriety of playing in the NCAA and getting a fan base from your college fans, I can't think of any reason for those kids to go to college versus going this route.

Jason, if I'm a parent, as much as I want my son to make it big, I would also want them to experience college (even if it is just for one year and a fairly abnormal year at that, meaning big time athletes don't have the same college experience I had).

I see this an interesting piece to an incomplete puzzle. It'll be interesting to see what happens to NCAA rules and with the NBA's next CBA, other pieces to the puzzle.

What I would love to see the NCAA do is say that if you take this new route and play 1 year in the G-League, you can still come back and play college ball but you lose 1 year of eligibility if you play 1 year, lose 3 years of eligibility if you play 2 years and are ineligible if you play 2+ years. Of course, you've have to get rid of any endorsement deals to return to some sense of amateurism. There are going to be kids that get bad advice and go to the G-League when they shouldn't have. Some of them will realize that they will never make the NBA or just want to be around people their own age some more. It would be nice if those kids could come to a University and play 3 years of college ball and get a scholarship to help them with their education (assuming, of course, they don't go to UNCheat and not have class <- double meaning intended).

I don't know when the current CBA ends, but from what I understand it's the CBA that keeps the OAD in effect.

[devilsadvocate85]

G League players receive housing. Presumably that includes some level of utilities, though how much, if any, cable/internet/streaming is covered I have no idea.

No one is figuring in taxes (federal and multiple states), hiring someone to do the taxes, etc. College still has huge upside if you are willing to go to class (I'll leave the snide comments wandering through my brain out for now). Gear is free, housing is free, food is free, medical care is free, etc. Exposure at the top programs from an individuals brand will still be higher. No one is clamoring for more basketball to watch on TV, unless their team isn't on a source they can watch. I've never heard of anyone who claims a "G League" team as their team. Bottom line, this is not a no-brainer for the players and it is a "stop-gap" for the NBA until the age limit can be changed. I think the NCAA should look at this as a blessing and an argument against the "pay the players" insanity. They can point to it as a viable option. Very few of these players would get significant endorsement money until they are going to the NBA.

Also, however the NBA/G League plan and age limit rule end up, there will still be players who go to college and only stay 1 season. If a freshman has a great year and the NBA people tell him the right things, he's gone. (The only caveat here being the possibility of the NCAA instituting minimum year commitments, which I doubt will happen or would be enforceable. You can't make a kid stay in school.) In the overall picture, there will be a few players we don't recruit/lose to the NBA/G League, a small number that leave early each year and our beloved "program" players.

I don't see the G League making a dent in the popularity of college basketball in my lifetime because there is no "brand". We love the players that we have, but we love them because they have Duke on the front of their jersey. The fact that a few players each year don't ever play NCAA basketball isn't going to change that. I'm still baffled how riled up we get over a proposal that will impact such a small number of players each season. We're discussing bets if the number will be <5>. I think Coach K's comment about the trial being a "blip" applies here as well. In a couple years, I think we'll be looking back on this period and wondering what the big deal was.

[JasonEvans]

I really find it amusing all of you who are saying, "no one will want to do this because they may look bad and hurt their draft stock."

Folks, the NBA knows talent when it sees it. The NBA knows potential when it sees it.

In 2015-16 Skal Labissiere barely played for the Kentucky Wildcats... 15 minutes per game with 6 ppg and 3 rpg... he was a first round draft pick of the Kings.
Tony Bradley played 15 minutes per game for the 2017 Tar Heels, scoring all of 7 ppg before getting his guaranteed first round money.
Harry Giles and Michael Porter (I know, injuries) had only the tiniest impact on the college game before earning their millions via the draft.
Lonnie Walker averaged just 11 ppg for Miami last season, he wasn't even 3d team All-ACC, but he was almost a lottery pick.

-Jason "If a top 10 recruit, one with the length and athleticism the NBA covets, goes to the GLeague and struggles, the NBA will not care. He;s getting drafted... high" Evans

[David Bunkley]

I really find it amusing all of you who are saying, "no one will want to do this because they may look bad and hurt their draft stock."

Folks, the NBA knows talent when it sees it. The NBA knows potential when it sees it.

In 2015-16 Skal Labissiere barely played for the Kentucky Wildcats... 15 minutes per game with 6 ppg and 3 rpg... he was a first round draft pick of the Kings.
Tony Bradley played 15 minutes per game for the 2017 Tar Heels, scoring all of 7 ppg before getting his guaranteed first round money.
Harry Giles and Michael Porter (I know, injuries) had only the tiniest impact on the college game before earning their millions via the draft.
Lonnie Walker averaged just 11 ppg for Miami last season, he wasn't even 3d team All-ACC, but he was almost a lottery pick.

-Jason "If a top 10 recruit, one with the length and athleticism the NBA covets, goes to the GLeague and struggles, the NBA will not care. He;s getting drafted... high" Evans

To your point, a talented guy with an obvious flaw or two (like Trevon Duval with his shooting and decision-making) would have probably been better served by a year in the G league where it's all about personal development, than he was by a year at Duke (where the goal is to win a championship).

#GODUKE

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Of course, but that simply begs the question whether the major misses will be increased or reduced as a result of having some players in the G-League. .

...and my point is that we don't know for sure...we can never know dispositively. Someone floated the notion that the G league will be a big improvement in this area. That remains to be seen.

[-jk]

What's the harm to the NBA? The G League is a rounding error (as is, I suspect, the WNBA). This program is a rounding error on the rounding error.

Seems a no-brainer.

-jk

[NYBri]

I am a sports fan. I have NO interest in watching a G-league basketball game, let alone care about OADs I’ve never heard of playing in an empty arena in Omaha. I have a hard time watching a regular season NBA game.

I don’t see any upside for top prospects, the NBA or the fans with this deal.

[JasonEvans]

What's the harm to the NBA? The G League is a rounding error (as is, I suspect, the WNBA). This program is a rounding error on the rounding error.

Seems a no-brainer.

-jk

And it benefits the league by making it look like they are seeking a solution to the very unpopular OAD rule. From a PR standpoint, this is great for the NBA. They have a reasonably lucrative (salary + endorsement income) means of supporting young basketball players who do not want to go to college. I would not be at all surprised if they wait a few years to see if this eliminates the need to allow high school grads into the NBA.

-Jason "I also think this could make GLeague games a little more attractive and marketable... it makes the GLeague more about 'Who is Next?' versus 'Guys not good enough for the NBA'" Evans

[Troublemaker]

There are a myriad of reasons why the NBA/GL may decide to pull this idea. If they do, I say the bet is off. I'm not giving you a win if the idea if pulled off the table.

If only 4 guys get offered it, I will accept that as a loss, cause I just cannot imagine that happening.

-Jason "seems like we are close..." Evans

If you agree to these two additional stipulations, I think we've got it. I win if either:
(1) The NBA scraps the Select Contract, and there is mainstream reporting (ESPN, SI, CBS, etc) that the reason they scrap it is because they expect too few high school prospects will accept the Select Contract, or
(2) The NBA sweetens the pot, i.e. essentially admitting that $125K wasn't enough to entice players to accept the SC.

Agreed?

[HereBeforeCoachK]

What's the harm to the NBA? The G League is a rounding error (as is, I suspect, the WNBA). This program is a rounding error on the rounding error.

Seems a no-brainer.

-jk

I don't know that it is a rounding error...think arena upkeep, expenses, travel...the salaries in the G are the rounding error...the overall costs are not. I think it takes hundreds of people to open up a typical basketball/hockey arena and prepare it for a game.

[JasonEvans]

If you agree to these two additional stipulations, I think we've got it. I win if either:
(1) The NBA scraps the Select Contract, and there is mainstream reporting (ESPN, SI, CBS, etc) that the reason they scrap it is because they expect too few high school prospects will accept the Select Contract, or
(2) The NBA sweetens the pot, i.e. essentially admitting that $125K wasn't enough to entice players to accept the SC.

Agreed?

If the NBA scraps it because no one is taking it I agree that would be a win for you. If they up the ante then I think we call it a push and no one wins as it would not be entirely clear who had won in that case. I mean, if it goes to $150 versus $125 and 7 guys take this offer, was I really all that wrong about my assessment of the inducement? I think an increase in the offer is unclear enough that we just call it a push.

-Jason "I'm really going to be intrigued to see who gets offered this... top 10 guys for sure and probably a few into teens, but how many guys outside the top 15 are worth investing in without more knowledge of how their play will translate to the next level?" Evans

[Troublemaker]

If the NBA scraps it because no one is taking it I agree that would be a win for you. If they up the ante then I think we call it a push and no one wins as it would not be entirely clear who had won in that case. I mean, if it goes to $150 versus $125 and 7 guys take this offer, was I really all that wrong about my assessment of the inducement? I think an increase in the offer is unclear enough that we just call it a push.

-Jason "I'm really going to be intrigued to see who gets offered this... top 10 guys for sure and probably a few into teens, but how many guys outside the top 15 are worth investing in without more knowledge of how their play will translate to the next level?" Evans

Okay, my friend. I agree. **Shakes on it**

To review our wager:

• If at least 5 of the top 30 players (according to 247's Composite rankings) sign a Select Contract, JasonEvans wins.
• If 4 or fewer of that pool of 30 players sign a Select Contract, Troublemaker wins.
• If the NBA scraps the Select Contract, and there is mainstream media reporting that the NBA did it because they expected too few players to take the offer, then Troublemaker wins.
• If the NBA sweetens the pot of what they're offering high school prospects, it is a push between us.

I have a feeling that last one is going to save your butt, my friend. Anyway, the prize is: for one week, when we make posts on DBR, the loser will praise the winner as a genius.

[JasonEvans]

Okay, my friend. I agree. **Shakes on it**

To review our wager:

• If at least 5 of the top 30 players (according to 247's Composite rankings) sign a Select Contract, JasonEvans wins.
• If 4 or fewer of that pool of 30 players sign a Select Contract, Troublemaker wins.
• If the NBA scraps the Select Contract, and there is mainstream media reporting that the NBA did it because they expected too few players to take the offer, then Troublemaker wins.
• If the NBA sweetens the pot of what they're offering high school prospects, it is a push between us.

I have a feeling that last one is going to save your butt, my friend. Anyway, the prize is: for one week, when we make posts on DBR, the loser will praise the winner as a genius.

Gambling is fun!

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Interesting article on another unique path by Darius Bazley, who had committed to Syracuse, then decided to go straight to the G League, and is now taking something of a gap year, including an "internship" at New Balance. He is getting a guaranteed $1 million of endorsement money, with a lot of additional upside. Bazley was highly ranked but was not at the very top of his class so one could only imagine what a more highly ranked player could be earning. As I said higher in the thread, the $125k from the G League is not the driver here - the opportunity to start getting endorsements is where the real money is.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/s...section=Sports

[CameronBornAndBred]

His reasons aren't stated, but Kyree Walker has decommitted from Hurley's ASU 2020 team. Have to wonder if he is eyeing dollars over "education" now. Have to wonder if he will be the first of a few, if so. If he doesn't entertain other schools, we'll know the answer to one of those questions.

http://www.espn.com/college-sports/r...-arizona-state

[Troublemaker]

Interesting article on another unique path by Darius Bazley, who had committed to Syracuse, then decided to go straight to the G League, and is now taking something of a gap year, including an "internship" at New Balance. He is getting a guaranteed $1 million of endorsement money, with a lot of additional upside. Bazley was highly ranked but was not at the very top of his class so one could only imagine what a more highly ranked player could be earning. As I said higher in the thread, the $125k from the G League is not the driver here - the opportunity to start getting endorsements is where the real money is.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/s...section=Sports

One thing about that. It's always been available as an option. High school senior prospects have always had the option to skip college and work out / prepare for the draft for a year, sign with an agent, and earn endorsement money like Bazley has. (The no-agent, no-endorsement rule is an NCAA rule, not state or federal law.)

Almost all have chosen to go to college instead.

Then again, maybe Bazley and others like him (Mitchell Robinson) start a trend.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Interesting article on another unique path by Darius Bazley, who had committed to Syracuse, then decided to go straight to the G League, and is now taking something of a gap year, including an "internship" at New Balance. He is getting a guaranteed $1 million of endorsement money, with a lot of additional upside. Bazley was highly ranked but was not at the very top of his class so one could only imagine what a more highly ranked player could be earning. As I said higher in the thread, the $125k from the G League is not the driver here - the opportunity to start getting endorsements is where the real money is.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/22/s...section=Sports

Interesting development, but I'm thinking....in a year, with no college exposure, is New Balance going to think their one mill investment was a good thing? I doubt it. I seriously doubt it. In a year, we'll be like "Darius Who?"