G League to offer contracts to top high schoolers

[Acymetric]

Look at it this way. Years ago when the WNBA came about, many, many people figured it would flop. And it is still going strong today, with regular coverage and games on tv. I have no doubt that the G League can and will do better than the WNBA. It doesn't mean it is ever going to be as big as NCAA ball, but it will be bigger than it is now and find it's niche.

Edit..one thing the WNBA does smartly is it has its season at a different time of year. The G League obviously has the other games to compete with at the same time of year.

Your second line is an important part of my point. There just aren't a lot of available TV slots and eyeballs during that time. They are competing with the NFL, NBA, College Football (for the first half of the season), College Basketball (men's and women's), and probably some other sports that I'm forgetting because I don't follow them. I'm not saying nobody would ever watch, but I don't see TV as a legitimate revenue generator and suspect they would make significantly less than the WNBA (although at lower cost per player). If there were a real market for this it would already exist, I don't see a couple top tier high school prospects per year changing the math much.

[ChillinDuke]

Look at it this way. Years ago when the WNBA came about, many, many people figured it would flop. And it is still going strong today, with regular coverage and games on tv. I have no doubt that the G League can and will do better than the WNBA. It doesn't mean it is ever going to be as big as NCAA ball, but it will be bigger than it is now and find it's niche.

Edit..one thing the WNBA does smartly is it has its season at a different time of year. The G League obviously has the other games to compete with at the same time of year.

I disagree. A few reasons why:

1) Target Market - My sense is the WNBA benefits from an audience that is largely young girls + dads + families. If I had to guess, I'd say that's a pretty sizable market that doesn't have a huge amount of outlets.
2) Time of year - By having the games in an "off" season, there is less competition for eyeballs in the sports world.
3) Venues - The WNBA games are played primarily in NBA arenas and big cities.

I don't know a ton about the G-League, but I don't think it would benefit from any of these significant advantages. While the WNBA is the best of the best in that market, the G-League is assuredly not in either on-court product (NBA) or intensity of game (college). The G-League season is smack in primetime of many other major sports. And the teams play in world renowned places such as Stockton, CA, Grand Rapids, MI, Fort Wayne, IN, and Portland, ME. I just think it's hard for a sport to get regular coverage and be broadly heralded when the not-best players are playing in comparitively uninteresting places (no offense; I'm from Long Island and we have a G-League team) during a time of year when there's plenty of other things to follow and watch in sports.

- Chillin

[JasonEvans]

Well, here's the top 20 players per 247's composite rankings. If you're willing to stipulate that the 5 have to come from those 20 players, we'll have a deal. On beer, presumably.

I'm worried about a scenario in which the elite high school players reject the Select Contract, and then in order to save face, the NBA starts offering those contracts to lower-ranked recruits and foreign players in order to fill a quota. (Maybe that's overly cynical, however).

Also, the bet is off if the NBA sweetens the pot, e.g. they change the terms of the contract to pay $250,000 instead of $125,000.

First of all, I don't really like beer.



I do enjoy a good cider and I love single-malt scotch.

But, shipping alcohol is expensive and potentially violates about a half dozen laws depending on how you do it. So, how about this as an alternative...

We are both prolific posters. Can I suggest we do a bet where the loser has to spend a week where all his posts contain a line or two that celebrates the genius and superiority of the winner? I won one of those with someone a while back and it was sorta fun.

Also -- and this applies to more than just our bet, it applies to lots of posts in this thread -- the NBA/GLeague is not saying it is just going to offer $125k contracts willy nilly to any high schooler who wants one. These will be "select players" who are deemed to be worth that much. In my mind, we are talking about guys who are very, very likely to be one-and-done talents. If you are not a likely 1st round draft pick the next year -- heck, if you are not a likely lottery pick -- the NBA has no interest in paying you two or three times as much as a regular GLeague player. My bet is that this will be offered to most of the guys in the top 25 or so. If we expand your list to say top 30 prospects, not just top 20, then I think we have an accord.

-Jason "sound good?" Evans

[CameronBornAndBred]

I just think it's hard for a sport to get regular coverage and be broadly heralded when the not-best players are playing in comparitively uninteresting places (no offense; I'm from Long Island and we have a G-League team) during a time of year when there's plenty of other things to follow and watch in sports.

- Chillin

That bold part is about to change. IF this is the route the NBA chooses to take, instead of taking elite players straight from HS, then they will find a way to market those players. One of the reasons that so many people tune in on draft night is to see where the OADs go. They are well known, because they have been given exposure. I don't think the NBA, who runs the G League, is going to allow that to change. They are going to market those kids. Their agents are going to market them. And shoe companies are going to market them.
They will find a way to make that market much bigger than it is right now, since none of those folks above benefit if they don't, except for the players. And if you think any of those folks care more about the players than their own pockets, you are daydreaming. (Not saying YOU in particular, just in general.)
There should be a 2 year pie bet in here somewhere. Long time to wait for my pie, though.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Wow, talk about prescient timing, given my above comparison. Here is an article talking about WNBA salaries VS the new "select" contracts of the G League.

The biggest issue with the introduction of the “select contracts,” though, isn’t the $10,000 or so disparity between the yearly salaries of an 18-year-old man with no professional experience and arguably the greatest women’s player of all time (Diana Taurasi). It’s that the NBA sees the G League—a minor league of the men’s game, with minimal opportunity for a direct return—as more worthy of investment than the women’s game as a whole.

https://www.sbnation.com/wnba/2018/1...ba-pay-players

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Your second line is an important part of my point. There just aren't a lot of available TV slots and eyeballs during that time. They are competing with the NFL, NBA, College Football (for the first half of the season), College Basketball (men's and women's), and probably some other sports that I'm forgetting because I don't follow them. I'm not saying nobody would ever watch, but I don't see TV as a legitimate revenue generator and suspect they would make significantly less than the WNBA (although at lower cost per player). If there were a real market for this it would already exist, I don't see a couple top tier high school prospects per year changing the math much.

I agree with this ^^^ - I don't see the G league getting much fan traction in person or on TV. I don't see more than maybe 6-10 guys a year getting the 125K offer. And I see these salaries tightening after a few years. As much as I like college ball, and as excited as I am about seeing Zion in a Duke uniform, I wouldn't walk across the street with a free ticket to see him in a G league game. Well, maybe if the ticket were free...I might.

I just don't see a market. I love the idea, as it is a great option for some players, and will end some (not all) of the whiniest debate on pay the players, etc, because we'll all see it play out in front of our eyes...who is marketable, and who is not, and how will the colleges draw without the top 10-20 players a year out of high school. It will be clear who actually "generates" the revenue.

[Pghdukie]

As KaZe pointed out upthread, the cost of living (housing, food, utilities, ESPN) will be out of pocket expenses. That $125,000 is now down to $95,000. Your entourage will cost you another $75,000. Now you have $20,000. Maternity fees, lawyer fees, agents 2% - DAM, IM BROKE.

[Troublemaker]

First of all, I don't really like beer.

I do enjoy a good cider and I love single-malt scotch.

But, shipping alcohol is expensive and potentially violates about a half dozen laws depending on how you do it. So, how about this as an alternative...

We are both prolific posters. Can I suggest we do a bet where the loser has to spend a week where all his posts contain a line or two that celebrates the genius and superiority of the winner? I won one of those with someone a while back and it was sorta fun.

Also -- and this applies to more than just our bet, it applies to lots of posts in this thread -- the NBA/GLeague is not saying it is just going to offer $125k contracts willy nilly to any high schooler who wants one. These will be "select players" who are deemed to be worth that much. In my mind, we are talking about guys who are very, very likely to be one-and-done talents. If you are not a likely 1st round draft pick the next year -- heck, if you are not a likely lottery pick -- the NBA has no interest in paying you two or three times as much as a regular GLeague player. My bet is that this will be offered to most of the guys in the top 25 or so. If we expand your list to say top 30 prospects, not just top 20, then I think we have an accord.

-Jason "sound good?" Evans

Your suggested prize is fine my friend -- sounds like a lot of fun, actually. And yes, I'm amenable to extending the pool of players to 30 prospects.

But I want to examine two more edge cases before we shake on it.
(1) If the NBA reverses course and scraps the idea of this Select Contract (perhaps after hearing negative feedback from agents), then I win our bet, right?
(2) Likewise, the NBA -- in order to save face -- will certainly investigate which kids are amenable to Select Contracts before offering one to them. If the NBA ends up offering only 4 Select Contracts and they all accept, then I win our bet, right?

Essentially, you wrote that at least 5 prospects will accept the Select Contract. If you fall short of 5 in any way, whether it's 0 because the NBA scraps it, or whether it's 1 to 4 because the NBA will only offer SCs to prospects that they feel will accept it, then I win.

Are we in agreement?

[Duke79UNLV77]

Your suggested prize is fine my friend -- sounds like a lot of fun, actually. And yes, I'm amenable to extending the pool of players to 30 prospects.

But I want to examine two more edge cases before we shake on it.
(1) If the NBA reverses course and scraps the idea of this Select Contract (perhaps after hearing negative feedback from agents), then I win our bet, right?
(2) Likewise, the NBA -- in order to save face -- will certainly investigate which kids are amenable to Select Contracts before offering one to them. If the NBA ends up offering only 4 Select Contracts and they all accept, then I win our bet, right?

Essentially, you wrote that at least 5 prospects will accept the Select Contract. If you fall short of 5 in any way, whether it's 0 because the NBA scraps it, or whether it's 1 to 4 because the NBA will only offer SCs to prospects that they feel will accept it, then I win.

Are we in agreement?

I wouldn’t have been surprised if all 4 of our star freshmen from last year accepted the deal. And had a lot fewer people watch them play and know who they are.

[MChambers]

Says this is an Adam Silver production, which I suppose is obvioius:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...=.3a05ed90f070

[TampaDuke]

Are the contracts just for one year? A 4-year guaranteed contract, with an out for being drafted/signed by the NBA, would make for a desirable college alternative for many, I suspect.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Are the contracts just for one year? A 4-year guaranteed contract, with an out for being drafted/signed by the NBA, would make for a desirable college alternative for many, I suspect.

The G League IS the NBA - and I guarantee you they are not doing 125K contracts for kids who won't be in the NBA in just one year.

[richardjackson199]

I wonder if 247 Crystal Ball will start including G-League as some gurus' picks. I would assume so.

[Acymetric]

Are the contracts just for one year? A 4-year guaranteed contract, with an out for being drafted/signed by the NBA, would make for a desirable college alternative for many, I suspect.

The G League IS the NBA - and I guarantee you they are not doing 125K contracts for kids who won't be in the NBA in just one year.

1 year contract, because they (and anyone who plays professional basketball anywhere) are automatically entered into the following draft. At that point, they either get drafted or follow the standard path of UDFA players that exists now. Which is why I still don't really understand what the NBA is getting out of it.

[rocketeli]

Ummm... I am not saying Duke literally pays for strippers/hookers, but let me assure you that basketball players at Duke are swimming in offers from women on campus. At least back in my day (the late 1980s) if a player wanted to be with a different gorgeous woman every night, he would have no trouble at all doing that.

-Jason "yes, I said every night... I am not exaggerating" Evans

That was true in my day too. Hwever, most of the players (heh) soon settled down with a steady girlfriend rather than a new girl every night. Except for one guy who played in the early 80s who did both...I think we can all guess who that was.

Seriously I agree with some of the other posters that this is mostly a sop/response to those critics (like Wendell's mom) who say top HS players are forced to donate to the NCAA for a year. But wishes trump certainty on draft day, so it is a big risk to ruin your "upside" by toiling in obscurity against very good players and not putting up gaudy numbers, all three of which things are much less likely to happen at a top NCAA program.

[JasonEvans]

Your suggested prize is fine my friend -- sounds like a lot of fun, actually. And yes, I'm amenable to extending the pool of players to 30 prospects.

But I want to examine two more edge cases before we shake on it.
(1) If the NBA reverses course and scraps the idea of this Select Contract (perhaps after hearing negative feedback from agents), then I win our bet, right?
(2) Likewise, the NBA -- in order to save face -- will certainly investigate which kids are amenable to Select Contracts before offering one to them. If the NBA ends up offering only 4 Select Contracts and they all accept, then I win our bet, right?

Essentially, you wrote that at least 5 prospects will accept the Select Contract. If you fall short of 5 in any way, whether it's 0 because the NBA scraps it, or whether it's 1 to 4 because the NBA will only offer SCs to prospects that they feel will accept it, then I win.

Are we in agreement?

There are a myriad of reasons why the NBA/GL may decide to pull this idea. If they do, I say the bet is off. I'm not giving you a win if the idea if pulled off the table.

If only 4 guys get offered it, I will accept that as a loss, cause I just cannot imagine that happening.

-Jason "seems like we are close..." Evans

[phaedrus]

... so it is a big risk to ruin your "upside" by toiling in obscurity against very good players and not putting up gaudy numbers, all three of which things are much less likely to happen at a top NCAA program.

This idea has been repeated a number of times on this thread without much resistance. Is it a given that every NBA front office is incapable of comparing (1) a solid but unspectacular season against mature, established players in the G-League, against (2) a season of big stat lines against lower tier competition? Are NBA GMs, just like everyday fans, so enamored by the glitz of the college basketball season and bored by the obscure but superior play in the G-League?

Maybe. But some of them, I'd venture, are actually good at their jobs. I guess the question is whether the prospective "Select" prospects agree.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

This idea has been repeated a number of times on this thread without much resistance. Is it a given that every NBA front office is incapable of comparing (1) a solid but unspectacular season against mature, established players in the G-League, against (2) a season of big stat lines against lower tier competition? Are NBA GMs, just like everyday fans, so enamored by the glitz of the college basketball season and bored by the obscure but superior play in the G-League?

Maybe. But some of them, I'd venture, are actually good at their jobs. I guess the question is whether the prospective "Select" prospects agree.

YES, because there are major misses on first round draftees EVERY SINGLE YEAR

[LasVegas]

I’m not sure how much this will move the needle. A few players here and there, I guess. What most intrigues me is the potential for a player to be ahead in their development which could mean a bigger 2nd contract. One year in the g league is more than likely going to accelerate a player’s development and adjustment to the NBA game. So when it’s time to sign that 2nd contract you could be worth a lot more simply because you are a year ahead on your development.

I really think only players who absolutely do not want to go to college will take this route though....or someone like Zion, Bagley, etc, who could get a huge endorsement deal.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

That was true in my day too. Hwever, most of the players (heh) soon settled down with a steady girlfriend rather than a new girl every night. Except for one guy who played in the early 80s who did both...I think we can all guess who that was.

I"m not sure if you are referring to Mr. Dennard, but I hear tell he was legendary, in every possible way (use your imagination). A cousin of mine was a drinking buddy / hound dog wing man for Kenny D as they terrorized Myrtle Beach a few times.