Top 5 Films of Winter 2018

[CameronBornAndBred]

Want my hot take for this winter? Fantastic Beasts 2 is going to have a tough time making $200 mil and if it finishes in our top 5, it will be in 5th place.

Yep. I think it will make the top 5, but it sure won't be the #1 or #2 film I was expecting it to be. The folks from Hogwarts have lost that magic feeling.

[Wander]

Detective Pikachu is barely in the same genre and there is a 0% chance it makes anything close to TS4. I'd make TS4 a -$225 mil favorite in that contest.

Well, there's a reason I called it a "hot take" – but I think you're underestimating how popular the brand is (how many specific games have had their own thread on DBR, for example?). It's far beyond just a "video game movie", is going to appeal to a large group of people, and has star power in Ryan Reynolds. If it gets good marketing and reviews, I think it will beat that -225 million betting line.

[BLPOG]

I'd set the line at Toy Story 4 -$120 mil. Meaning I think TS4 will earn $120 mil more than SLOP2.



Detective Pikachu is barely in the same genre and there is a 0% chance it makes anything close to TS4. I'd make TS4 a -$225 mil favorite in that contest.

Well, there's a reason I called it a "hot take" – but I think you're underestimating how popular the brand is (how many specific games have had their own thread on DBR, for example?). It's far beyond just a "video game movie", is going to appeal to a large group of people, and has star power in Ryan Reynolds. If it gets good marketing and reviews, I think it will beat that -225 million betting line.

Count me in agreement with Wander. If that movie is anything better than a disaster, it will absolutely crush at the box office. I don't think it will match Toy Story (nor do I really consider it as the same genre), but it will earn a lot. You'd do well not to underestimate the appeal of the Pokémon brand. It's something that never appealed to me, but I remember the first wave of the obsession that took hold of other kids when I was young. It has a strong, multi-generational interest at this point.

[PackMan97]

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/franch...id=pokemon.htm

Inflation adjusted, "The First Movie" did $154 million. I to find it hard to think it can challenge a Pixar movie. The two sequels did progressively worse at the box office.

[El_Diablo]

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/franch...id=pokemon.htm

Inflation adjusted, "The First Movie" did $154 million. I to find it hard to think it can challenge a Pixar movie. The two sequels did progressively worse at the box office.

Apples to oranges. "The First Movie" was an anime-style Japanese cartoon (dubbed into English), and I am not sure it was marketed much in the US. It also had terrible reviews. I wouldn't look to that as a relevant comparison for Detective Pikachu.

[Wander]

Apples to oranges. "The First Movie" was an anime-style Japanese cartoon (dubbed into English), and I am not sure it was marketed much in the US. It also had terrible reviews. I wouldn't look to that as a relevant comparison for Detective Pikachu.

Right. It's like comparing an animated Batman or Spiderman movie to Dark Knight or Homecoming (well, maybe not that extreme, but you get the idea).

I need to jump on that -225 million betting line. DBR bet, JE?

[JasonEvans]

I need to jump on that -225 million betting line. DBR bet, JE?

Well, to be clear I was setting that line right where I thought the films would fall. I'm thinking about $425 mil for TS4 and about $200 mil for Det. Pikachu. So, why would I take a bet that forces me to be wrong about one side of that prediction? I get that you think it will do much better than that, which is fine, but then the bet would need to be at more like -$175 mil to begin to entice me. Otherwise, you are just asking me to bet on whether I am going to be wrong.

-Jason "Does that make sense?" Evans

[Clipsfan]

Well, to be clear I was setting that line right where I thought the films would fall. I'm thinking about $425 mil for TS4 and about $200 mil for Det. Pikachu. So, why would I take a bet that forces me to be wrong about one side of that prediction? I get that you think it will do much better than that, which is fine, but then the bet would need to be at more like -$175 mil to begin to entice me. Otherwise, you are just asking me to bet on whether I am going to be wrong.

-Jason "Does that make sense?" Evans

Makes total sense. Given that you'd be taking the under I suggest that you go with a higher number instead of a lower one!

[JasonEvans]

Makes total sense. Given that you'd be taking the under I suggest that you go with a higher number instead of a lower one!

Huh? It is a line, not an O/U. I thought Wander was saying he wanted to bet me that Det. Pikachu would be closer to Toy Story 4 than $225 million. I said I needed something like a $175 mil number to make the bet truly attractive to me. Did I misunderstand?

[JasonEvans]

Uh oh...

Preliminary numbers show that Fantastic Beasts 2 made $62.2 mil at the domestic boxoffice this weekend. That's 16.3% less than the $74.4 mil opening for the first film in the sequel series. The first Beasts went on to make $234 mil at the boxoffice. If that 16.3% decline holds up for the entire run (not likely, but it gives us a good general idea) then FB2 will end up making $195.6 million... which is probably going to be very dicey territory for making our top 5. What's more, FB2 only scored a B+ Cinemascore, which is ok, but not great considering the first film had an A and I believe all the other Harry Pottery films have at least had an A-. FB2 is getting poor reviews, the worst of any film in the Potter universe. My concern is that while Potter fans will feel they need to see it, nothing about it feels special or interesting enough to merit a second viewing. All the other Potter films have benefited from a small subset of fans who went to see them multiple times, to catch all the details and relive the magic. This film may really suffer in that regard.

-Jason "meanwhile, the Grinch held up nicely with just a 43% decline from opening weekend and is now at $126.5 mil... I expect a big week coming up as kids are out of school (though Wreck it Ralph 2 is getting great reviews and seems likely to dominate the kid market)" Evans

[Nick]

This shouldn't affect the top 5, but Fox is releasing a PG-13 version of Deadpool 2, with Fred Savage reprising his role from "The Princess Bride":

[JasonEvans]

Final Aquaman trailer... sorry, but I am not excited. Waaaay too much fast-moving CGI fighting.

[Wander]

Huh? It is a line, not an O/U. I thought Wander was saying he wanted to bet me that Det. Pikachu would be closer to Toy Story 4 than $225 million. I said I needed something like a $175 mil number to make the bet truly attractive to me. Did I misunderstand?

Yup, makes sense. You think the line should be 225 million – DBR bet me at 200 million. Loser has to change their avatar to a pic of Pikachu (you, if I win) or Toy Story characters (me, if you win). No pies involved!

[JasonEvans]

Yup, makes sense. You think the line should be 225 million – DBR bet me at 200 million. Loser has to change their avatar to a pic of Pikachu (you, if I win) or Toy Story characters (me, if you win). No pies involved!

I would like more like -175 mil, but I can live with a $200 mil line. Avatar's for a week and we have to post messages praising the winner as well, ok?

[Wander]

I would like more like -175 mil, but I can live with a $200 mil line. Avatar's for a week and we have to post messages praising the winner as well, ok?

Done. Have you lost a DBR bet yet? Ready to be the Duke to your UNLV...

[JasonEvans]

Done. Have you lost a DBR bet yet? Ready to be the Duke to your UNLV...

Yup, I've lost one or two. We will revisit this one next summer.

[PackMan97]

Done. Have you lost a DBR bet yet? Ready to be the Duke to your UNLV...

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb...4-02-duke.html
UNLV 103
Duke 73

You should make two bets, maybe you'll win on the second try?

[JasonEvans]

Lego Movie 2 drops a trailer. I think everyone who voted against this film may have made a real mistake.



Love the meta humor like when Chris Pratt mocks being Chris Pratt.

[PackMan97]

It's a good sign that Lego2 breaks out the Beastie Boys in the trailer!

[BD80]

Saw Ralph Wrecks the Internet last night.

Wow! Was it awful! Even Wonder Woman couldn't save it.

The scene with Vanellope and the Disney Princesses was sensational. Truly inspired. The rest was dreck, except for the Stan Lee cameo.

Even though I voted for it, I urge you to save your money if you are thinking of going.