Duke FB: Dork Polls

[MChambers]

OPK dork poll:

9 of top 17 threads on DBaskebtallR are about Duke football.

Still amazed how far Cut has brought this program in terms of performance and interest.

Football school!

Personally, I wish Duke didn’t field a football team, mostly because of CTE, but that’s just me.

[arnie]

Football school!

Personally, I wish Duke didn’t field a football team, mostly because of CTE, but that’s just me.

You must not be aware that Fedora has proclaimed hard nose, tackle football mixed in with some CTE is essential for a strong military and strong America.😀

[OldPhiKap]

34 in AP:

https://www.cbssports.com/college-fo...ball-rankings/

[JasonEvans]

As I mentioned elsewhere, Duke is #18 in the Massey Composite. Massey takes rankings from dozens of computer models to come up with his composite.

[Reilly]

As I mentioned elsewhere, Duke is #18 in the Massey Composite. Massey takes rankings from dozens of computer models to come up with his composite.

The computers love us way more than the humans (AP) do.

We're #17 in the SRS and #34 in the AP, for a difference of 17 spots.

Only Iowa State (#20 SRS; no rating AP of 40 teams) and Army (#22 SRS; no rating AP of 40 teams) had a bigger spread where the humans did not love them as much as the computers did.

App State is #16 in the SRS and #29 in the AP, so undervalued by humans relative to computers by 13 spots ... but not as greatly undervalued as Duke's 17.

NCSU, on the other hand, is #24 per the SRS/computer but #16 in the AP, so the humans are giving them more love than the computers suggest is reasonable (which must be disorienting for Pack fans to get more respect than perhaps deserved).

[Bob Green]

Duke falls from 25 to 35 in this morning's Sagarin ratings:

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/


Remaining opponents:

Pittsburgh - 76
Miami - 20
Carolina - 90
Clemson -2
Wake Forest - 86

[Reilly]

Duke dropped from #17 to #31 in the SRS:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...8-ratings.html

[Reilly]

Duke is #43 in the CBS 129: https://www.cbssports.com/collegefoo...nkings/cbs/129

[Reilly]

Duke now #40 in the SRS: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...8-ratings.html

Miami is #33 and 1+ point better than Duke on a neutral field.

[Bob Green]

Duke is #37 in the Sagarin ratings:

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

Carolina - #92
Clemson - #2
Wake Forest - #82

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Duke is #37 in the Sagarin ratings:

UVa, VT and Pitt all in the 45-57 area below Duke....sheesh...

[devildeac]

UVa, VT and Pitt all in the 45-57 area below Duke...sheesh...

Yep. What coulda been, wasn't.

[Reilly]

Duke at 36 in SRS: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...8-ratings.html

VT at 78.

And for comparison's sake, Duke's best team under Cut finished #31 in the SRS (2013), and last year's team finished #37 (second best under Cut). We're enjoying (or not) one of the best teams of the past 11 years. Beat Carolina.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Duke at 36 in SRS: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...8-ratings.html

VT at 78.

And for comparison's sake, Duke's best team under Cut finished #31 in the SRS (2013), and last year's team finished #37 (second best under Cut). We're enjoying (or not) one of the best teams of the past 11 years. Beat Carolina.

This team is nowhere near as good as 2013 IMO....injuries are a part of that of course...

[Acymetric]

This team is nowhere near as good as 2013 IMO...injuries are a part of that of course...

Agreed. It is worth noting that the "Dork" polls are not nearly as reliable in football as they are in basketball for ranking teams...just not enough games played between the schools.

Think about how many games before KenPom's stats are "connected" during the basketball season...I think it is more than 12.

[Reilly]

This team is nowhere near as good as 2013 IMO...injuries are a part of that of course...

2018 Duke team (currently #37 in SRS)
- won by 42 points over an I-AA team (NCCU)
- won by 20 points over the #31 team (Army)
- won by 14 points @ the #33 team (NU)
- won by 14 points @ the #61 team (GT)
- won by 13 points @ the #57 team (Baylor)
- won by 8 points @ the #42 team (Miami)

- lost by 9 points @ the #53 team (Pitt)
- lost by 14 points to the #46 team (UVA)
- lost by 17 points to the#78 team (VT)


2013 Duke team (finished #31 in SRS; through 9 games (using year-end ratings))
- won by 45 points over an I-AA team (NCCU)
- won by 28 points over the #53 team (Navy)
- won by 18 points over the #92 team (NCSU)
- won by 14 points @ the #96 team (Memphis)
- won by 13 points @ the #90 team (UVa)
- won by 7 points over the #91 team (Troy)
- won by 3 points over the #39 team (VT)

- lost by 3 points to the #55 team (Pitt)
- lost by 24 points to #35 team (GT)

Through this point, the 2013 squad was 7-2 compared to 2018's 6-3, but 2013 had feasted, to this point, on lesser competition (4 teams in the 90s).

[HereBeforeCoachK]

2018 Duke team (currently #37 in SRS)
- won by 42 points over an I-AA team (NCCU)
- won by 20 points over the #31 team (Army)
- won by 14 points @ the #33 team (NU)
- won by 14 points @ the #61 team (GT)
- won by 13 points @ the #57 team (Baylor)
- won by 8 points @ the #42 team (Miami)

- lost by 9 points @ the #53 team (Pitt)
- lost by 14 points to the #46 team (UVA)
- lost by 17 points to the#78 team (VT)


2013 Duke team (finished #31 in SRS; through 9 games (using year-end ratings))
- won by 45 points over an I-AA team (NCCU)
- won by 28 points over the #53 team (Navy)
- won by 18 points over the #92 team (NCSU)
- won by 14 points @ the #96 team (Memphis)
- won by 13 points @ the #90 team (UVa)
- won by 7 points over the #91 team (Troy)
- won by 3 points over the #39 team (VT)

- lost by 3 points to the #55 team (Pitt)
- lost by 24 points to #35 team (GT)

Through this point, the 2013 squad was 7-2 compared to 2018's 6-3, but 2013 had feasted, to this point, on lesser competition (4 teams in the 90s).

You need to consider streaks at this point in the season. Frankly, I don't really care what Sagarin says. I don't think this team is in the same class with 2013, not in a week ten to week ten comparison. 2013, at this point, Duke was 5 games into an 8 game winning streak. They were building a Coastal Championship. Duke 2018 in week ten has lost two of three and three of five, and is not in the Coastal discussion. 2013 team was on a big roll at this point. This team is not, not yet.

Now that could change...this team could get healthier, start catching passes, figure out how to pair the Pittsburgh game O with the Miami game D..and end the season winning three of four and finish 8-4, and win a bowl game. At that point Sagarin would have this team ahead of 2013 which is suspect. The 2013 team was one play away from a NYE bowl win and a top ten national ranking. I submit Sagarin had 2013 way too low.

[Reilly]

... The 2013 team was one play away from ... a top ten national ranking ...

Here's the AP final top 10:

17 Final 1 Florida State (14-0) 1 ACC (Atlantic)
17 Final 2 Auburn (12-2) 2 SEC (West)
17 Final 3 Michigan State (13-1) 4 1 Big Ten (Legends)
17 Final 4 South Carolina (11-2) 8 4 SEC (East)
17 Final 5 Missouri (12-2) 9 4 SEC (East)
17 Final 6 Oklahoma (11-2) 11 5 Big 12
17 Final 7 Alabama (11-2) 3 4 SEC (West)
17 Final 8 Clemson (11-2) 12 4 ACC (Atlantic)
17 Final 9 Oregon (11-2) 10 1 Pac-12 (North)
17 Final 10 UCF (12-1) 15 5 American

Which team would an 11-3 Duke team have supplanted?

In the Final AP poll (top 25), the most any team moved up in the final poll was 5 slots over the week before, and we were #22 going into NYE, so presumably would've been #17 had we equaled the largest move in the final poll. I don't think we would have vaulted 12 slots when the largest mover was 5. The largest move in the whole year (13 slots) did occur after a win over TXAM, when Auburn moved from #24 to #11 in October, but that was earlier when it seems more likely for there to be more movement. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...013-polls.html

2013 was a special season. Magical momentum. That team was better than this team, comparing its final SRS to this team's SRS. That said, it's resume is not that much better, to date. And I do not believe 2013 would have finished in the AP top 10 if it had finished off Johnny Football.

[Bob Green]

Duke falls four places to #41 in updated Sagarin ratings:

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

Clemson - #2
Wake Forest - #73

[OldPhiKap]

Duke falls four places to #41 in updated Sagarin ratings:

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

Clemson - #2
Wake Forest - #73

Playing Carolina lowered our strength of schedule. Bwahaha.

I’ll take that small dip for the pleasure of quantifying how bad Carolina really is this year.