Duke FB: Dork Polls

[Reilly]

#18 in the SRS ... and our D is 2x as good as our O ... https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...8-ratings.html

What else is out there?

[Bob Green]

Duke is #35 in Sagarin ratings:

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

Our remaining opponents:

Georgia Tech - 41
Virginia - 58
Pitt - 75
Miami - 19
North Carolina - 98
Clemson - 3
Wake Forest - 76

[Bob Green]

Duke is #33 in ESPN FPI:

http://www.espn.com/college-football...cs/teamratings

Our remaining opponents:

Georgia Tech - 38
Virginia - 58
Pitt - 72
Miami - 12
North Carolina - 81
Clemson - 4
Wake Forest - 68

[Bob Green]

Duke is #23 in the Massey Composite:

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Our remaining opponents:

Georgia Tech - 63
Virginia - 61
Pitt - 73
Miami - 18
North Carolina - 102
Clemson - 3
Wake Forest - 68

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Seems like all of them are pointing at a 5-2 finish from here...

[Reilly]

@ #66 GT (Duke by 7 points after home field 3 given)
v #51 Virginia (Duke by 11)
@ #78 Pitt (Duke by 9)
@ #26 Mia (pick 'em)
v #120 UNC (Duke by 27)
@ #5 Clemson (Clemson by 11)
v #67 WFU (Duke by 13)

7 straight weeks of football ... 3 home/4 road ... all ACC games ... 5/7 against old-time ACC opponents (GT, UVa, UNC, Clemson, WFU) (including GT b/c we've played them every year since 1933, I believe)

7-0: 11-1
6-1: 10-2
5-2: 9-3
4-3: 8-4
3-4: 7-5
2-5: 6-6
1-6: 5-7
0-7: 4-8

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...8-ratings.html

[budwom]

Data is awful meager for dork polls to mean much at this point...GT scored 66 vs a Power 5 opponent, albeit a crappy Lville team...I suspect they're a bit better than #66...

[Reilly]

... GT scored 66 vs a Power 5 opponent ... I suspect they're a bit better than #66 ...

Probably not much better -- maybe low 50s, given their current resume. It's the Jay Bilas NCAA selection question: who would you move them in front of? There are 47 teams with 4-2 or better records right now. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...8-ratings.html

edit -- just saw that USA Today puts GT at #74: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...me/1558936002/

[Reilly]

Link: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...me/1558936002/

[budwom]

Probably not much better -- maybe low 50s, given their current resume. It's the Jay Bilas NCAA selection question: who would you move them in front of? There are 47 teams with 4-2 or better records right now. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...8-ratings.html

edit -- just saw that USA Today puts GT at #74: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...me/1558936002/

yeah, but a lot of 4-2 records this time of year are flimsy...I like advanced metrics just fine, but it takes more data points for them to make a lot of sense.
I'm pretty certain Duke won't be a 27 pt favorite over unc, nor 11 point favorite over uva, nor 9 over pitt. Let's see how this week works out...betting line of GT -1 seems a lot more reasonable than Duke by 7, as much as I'd love to see that.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Probably not much better -- maybe low 50s, given their current resume. It's the Jay Bilas NCAA selection question: who would you move them in front of? There are 47 teams with 4-2 or better records right now. https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...8-ratings.html

edit -- just saw that USA Today puts GT at #74: https://www.usatoday.com/story/sport...me/1558936002/

The way GT is playing right now...the last few weeks...they are much better than 74.

[BandAlum83]

Duke is #23 in the Massey Composite:

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Our remaining opponents:

Georgia Tech - 63
Virginia - 61
Pitt - 73
Miami - 18
North Carolina - 102
Clemson - 3
Wake Forest - 68

<sigh>

I guess I would be OK with a 9-3 season.

[OldPhiKap]

yeah, but a lot of 4-2 records this time of year are flimsy...I like advanced metrics just fine, but it takes more data points for them to make a lot of sense.
I'm pretty certain Duke won't be a 27 pt favorite over unc, nor 11 point favorite over uva, nor 9 over pitt. Let's see how this week works out...betting line of GT -1 seems a lot more reasonable than Duke by 7, as much as I'd love to see that.

Frankly, GT only being a point or two favorite at home over us seems generous in our favor. JMHO. I would have thought the -3.5 opener in favor of GT would have widened, not shrank.

[Reilly]

yeah, but a lot of 4-2 records this time of year are flimsy...I like advanced metrics just fine, but it takes more data points for them to make a lot of sense.
I'm pretty certain Duke won't be a 27 pt favorite over unc, nor 11 point favorite over uva, nor 9 over pitt. Let's see how this week works out...betting line of GT -1 seems a lot more reasonable than Duke by 7, as much as I'd love to see that.

#1 -- the SRS is not advanced metrics; it's simple. Those high point differential numbers will calm down/correct ... unless our D really is lights out.

#2 -- the USA Today ranking of GT as #74 is not metrics at all if I'm understanding it correctly; it's Paul Myerberg's ranking (he's a v. good CFB journalist, I've found). Again, which 4-2 teams are you placing GT above? Any Power 5 teams (Miss St; Auburn; TxA&M; Syracuse; Ole Miss; Ok St; Stanford; BC; Indiana; Oregon; Baylor)? There are 7 gang of five 4-win teams that you might move them ahead of, which brings them into the 50s. Sagarin has them in the 40s(?).

GT may beat us, no doubt. And the line is probably right. That said, GT ain't elite right now based on its resume to date.

[budwom]

^ elite? Who said elite? I sure didn't. I'm just saying that if you really believe we're thirty something and they're #74, you are evidently expecting a far, far easier game than I am.
Sagarin has Duke at 35 I believe, GT at 41, that seems far more reasonable to me...

[duke2x]

Data is awful meager for dork polls to mean much at this point...GT scored 66 vs a Power 5 opponent, albeit a crappy Lville team...I suspect they're a bit better than #66...

GT is an computer poll enigma right now. The best win is over Louisville (#105). They lost to Pitt (#78) and USF (#52). They don't throw the ball well or often like VT. I'll be happy with a 1 point win. We almost never play well down there, and this game is almost a must win for a bowl (with VT, Miami, and UGA as alternatives).

[budwom]

GT is an computer poll enigma right now. The best win is over Louisville (#105). They lost to Pitt (#78) and USF (#52). They don't throw the ball well or often like VT. I'll be happy with a 1 point win. We almost never play well down there, and this game is almost a must win for a bowl (with VT, Miami, and UGA as alternatives).

I can't argue with that, an enigma they are...I'm just loathe to accept any poll or data which has them at #74 and Duke at #thirtysomething right now...point spread seems a better indication of relative merits. (As well as Sagarin).

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I can't argue with that, an enigma they are...I'm just loathe to accept any poll or data which has them at #74 and Duke at #thirtysomething right now...point spread seems a better indication of relative merits. (As well as Sagarin).

This is a problem with any metric that doesn't weight recent games more heavily...because they've been a dad gum ramblin wreck for sure the last two weeks...129 points!

[Reilly]

#34 in AP poll: https://www.collegefootball.ap.org/poll

#17 in the SRS: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb...8-ratings.html

[OldPhiKap]

OPK dork poll:

9 of top 17 threads on DBaskebtallR are about Duke football.

Still amazed how far Cut has brought this program in terms of performance and interest.