Dukies in the NBA 2018-19

[kAzE]

Appreciate the write-up, but have to push back a bit here. The "Wizards are better without Wall" narrative isn't totally based in fact. Last year, Wall got hurt after the Wizards lost to the Thunder. The team rallied and went 9-2 over their next 11 games, prompting plenty of hot-takes about how they're better off without Wall. But after that, the team went 7-13 without him in the lineup. No one went back and corrected their narrative. Combine that with a 5-6 stretch he missed earlier in the season, and the team was 21-21 without Wall, and 22-18 with him. He was then--by far--their best player in the playoffs.

Same thing happened this year: after he was ruled out for the season, Washington went 7-4. Cue the hot takes. Since then, Washington is 2-5.

I get that this is damning with faint praise--in the regular season, Wall hasn't elevated his team's play as much as you'd hope. But the Wizards' ceiling is much, much higher when Wall plays, and he shows it in the playoffs. A core of Wall-Beal-Porter-Zion would be fantastic. The Wizards should shut down Beal and tank hard to try to make that happen, since gunning for the 8th seed this year is a futile task.

Certainly, I agree the team's ceiling is higher with Wall playing, but Tomas Satoransky has actually been very good recently filling in for him. Wall is more talented, but are his contributions worth the 160+ million that he is owed over the next 4 years, starting next season? This is guy who seems like he's going to have knee issues for the rest of his career. Given that he is a bad shooter who relies on his athleticism and explosiveness to be effective, and again, someone who is not a positive personality in the locker room, I think the Wizards would much prefer to not have him on the roster.

IMO, John Wall's best days are well behind him.

[Hingeknocker]

Okafor with another big game. He’s averaging just under 20 and about 10.5 in his last 8 games. I’ve always said play him and he will produce. He didn’t just forget to score down low any more than Redick forgot how to shoot early in his career. They both just had games that were out of vogue at the time. Credit to both for persistence.

Just watched the highlights of Okafor's game last night against the Pacers. What a joy to watch him experience some sustained success in the league. At the very least I would guess he's earned himself a guaranteed deal for next year. IIRC, his current contract with NO has a team option for next season?

And incidentally, he had some nice plays last night against Domantas Sabonis, which got me wondering if those two played against each other in the 2015 Elite 8. Of course, I had to watch those highlights, too. Jah had a relatively quiet game, 9/8 in 25 minutes; Sabonis had 9/4 off the bench for Gonzaga. We, of course, got the win. Clutch shooting by that guy Matt Jones.

[Truth&Justise]

Certainly, I agree the team's ceiling is higher with Wall playing, but Tomas Satoransky has actually been very good recently filling in for him. Wall is more talented, but are his contributions worth the 160+ million that he is owed over the next 4 years, starting next season? This is guy who seems like he's going to have knee issues for the rest of his career. Given that he is a bad shooter who relies on his athleticism and explosiveness to be effective, and again, someone who is not a positive personality in the locker room, I think the Wizards would much prefer to not have him on the roster.

IMO, John Wall's best days are well behind him.

Hoping to stave off a thread-hijack, I agree with everything you wrote here. I still believe the team is better when Wall plays, but his contract is way too much in a crippling way, and he is probably on the down-slope of his career.

Ultimately though, the die has been cast: he has his massive contract, and there's nothing that can be done about it. Because it cripples the Wizard's cap space, the only chance to add high-quality players is in the draft, and given that they are very unlikely to make any noise in the playoffs this year, they should concentrate on accumulating ping-pong balls and pray for Zion. <-- See, this post is all really about a Duke player in the NBA.

[Billy Dat]

Just watched the highlights of Okafor's game last night against the Pacers. What a joy to watch him experience some sustained success in the league. At the very least I would guess he's earned himself a guaranteed deal for next year. IIRC, his current contract with NO has a team option for next season?

And incidentally, he had some nice plays last night against Domantas Sabonis, which got me wondering if those two played against each other in the 2015 Elite 8. Of course, I had to watch those highlights, too. Jah had a relatively quiet game, 9/8 in 25 minutes; Sabonis had 9/4 off the bench for Gonzaga. We, of course, got the win. Clutch shooting by that guy Matt Jones.

I just saw an IG video of Jah walking from the locker room to the team bus or something and it is incredible how he has changed his body. He has to be 50 pounds lighter than he was at Duke. It reminds me of the way Elton transformed himself, and makes me think that Zion, despite his relatively low % of fat, will also do well to get his weight down to save his legs and knees.

[kAzE]

Hoping to stave off a thread-hijack, I agree with everything you wrote here. I still believe the team is better when Wall plays, but his contract is way too much in a crippling way, and he is probably on the down-slope of his career.

Ultimately though, the die has been cast: he has his massive contract, and there's nothing that can be done about it. Because it cripples the Wizard's cap space, the only chance to add high-quality players is in the draft, and given that they are very unlikely to make any noise in the playoffs this year, they should concentrate on accumulating ping-pong balls and pray for Zion. <-- See, this post is all really about a Duke player in the NBA.

So... crazy coincidence that we have been taking about Wall (and apologies for the continued thread hijack), but the Wizards just announced that he tore his Achilles (by slipping and falling in his home, somehow) and is expected to miss 12 months, meaning he is effectively out all of next year. That’s a brutal way to start his super max contract for the wizards.

[Truth&Justise]

So... crazy coincidence that we have been taking about Wall (and apologies for the continued thread hijack), but the Wizards just announced that he tore his Achilles (by slipping and falling in his home, somehow) and is expected to miss 12 months, meaning he is effectively out all of next year. That’s a brutal way to start his super max contract for the wizards.

This is the price I pay for following the greatest college basketball program -- my other teams are an endless fount of misery.

[JasonEvans]

So... crazy coincidence that we have been taking about Wall (and apologies for the continued thread hijack), but the Wizards just announced that he tore his Achilles (by slipping and falling in his home, somehow) and is expected to miss 12 months, meaning he is effectively out all of next year. That’s a brutal way to start his super max contract for the wizards.

Such are the vagaries of injuries in a league where star players are the most important commodity in the land. I mean, what if Steph Curry had been the guy to suffer the devastating knee injury in 2012 instead of Derrick Rose? We might be talking about another Bulls dynasty instead of a team in multi-season tank mode. What if James Harden tore his Achilles instead of John Wall? What if Giannis Antetokounmpo had been the one to miss multiple seasons instead of Kristaps Porzingis? What if... What if...

-Jason "the job of NBA GM is basically guess and pray... sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you get screwed" Evans

[kAzE]

Such are the vagaries of injuries in a league where star players are the most important commodity in the land. I mean, what if Steph Curry had been the guy to suffer the devastating knee injury in 2012 instead of Derrick Rose? We might be talking about another Bulls dynasty instead of a team in multi-season tank mode. What if James Harden tore his Achilles instead of John Wall? What if Giannis Antetokounmpo had been the one to miss multiple seasons instead of Kristaps Porzingis? What if... What if...

-Jason "the job of NBA GM is basically guess and pray... sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you get screwed" Evans

Hey Jason, what'd you think of my #1 preferred team for Zion on the previous page?

Also, I think after this John Wall news, I'm retroactively moving the Wizards down my rankings, to #8 or so. John Wall willl probably never be the same player he once was, with multiple knee injuries and now a blown out Achilles. Very sad news for him. At least he signed that supermax before all this . . . that's going to be the worst contract in the league by far.

[BandAlum83]

I've got some time to kill this morning, so I have decided to rank the best basketball fits for Zion. As of today (Feb 5) , there is a 97% chance Zion will end up on one of 10 teams. I have ranked these teams in order of what I believe would be the most ideal landing spots for Zanos (regardless of my personal feelings for the teams).

1. Atlanta Hawks (12.5% to win the lottery)

The Hawks currently have 2 lottery picks, including Dallas' pick. Geographically, this is the closest NBA team to Zion's hometown of Spartanburg, SC. The Hawks were believed to be one of, if not the worst team in the NBA last off season, but have really shown some potential lately. Trae Young has picked up his play from where he was at the start of the season, and Kevin Huerter has been one of the best rookies in the league, showing some serious range and consistency on his jump shot, as well as becoming a very good passer. A nucleus of Zion, Trae Young, John Collins, and Huerter is especially enticing, because of the deadly shooting of Young and Huerter, opening up space for Zion to dominate in the paint. The passing and play making abilities of Zion, Young, and Huerter would be a joy to watch.

2. Phoenix Suns (14%)

Zion and DeAndre Ayton would certainly be a physically imposing front court. Add Mikal Bridges (who has really come on of late), and future all-star shooting guard Devin Booker, and you've got a very intriguing young core. All they need is a point guard, which may not be too difficult to acquire in free agency, considering it is by far the deepest position in the league right now. Zion would be a great fit in Phoenix.

3. New Orleans Pelicans (4.5%)

The Pelicans are obviously going to have a massive hole to fill after this season. The upside is, they should also have plenty of promising young guys and future assets to help build a team around Zion. A hypothetical core of Zion, Jayson Tatum, Terry Rozier, and a treasure trove of first round picks seems like a pretty nice way to bounce back from losing the best player in franchise history.

4. Memphis Grizzlies (9%)

A lot of things could change with the Grizzlies in the next few days, as they are perceived as sellers in the trade market right now, with aging veteran center Marc Gasol, and the eternally underrated playmaker, Mike Conley. Still, this rebuilding team would be a good place for Zion to begin his NBA career alongside the extremely promising rookie big man, Jaren Jackson Jr., who I believe will become the best big man from the 2018 draft. Jackson is a lock down defender who can protect the rim, guard on the perimeter, and also space the floor, making him the rare "unicorn." Zion and Jackson could one day become the best front court in the NBA. Catching lobs from Mike Conley wouldn't be so bad, either.

5. Washington Wizards (6.8%)

This would be a great fit on paper, but this is a team that has had more chemistry issues than an entire season of Breaking Bad. John Wall is a team cancer, and the Wizards consistently perform better with him out of the lineup than in it. This is a problem, because Wall is untradeable due to his massive supermax contract, which hurts the team's roster flexibility. Still, Wall and Beal are two of the more talented guards in the league, and the enigmatic Otto Porter can be one of the most effective two-way wings in the NBA. There is a chance that Zion could spark this group towards something positive.

6. New York Knicks (14%)

Well, there's nothing really going on in New York right now, though there is hope that they can lure a max free agent or two this off season. (I doubt KD or Kyrie are truly interested) This is historically THE worst run franchise in the league, and I don't really see how that changes until James Dolan no longer owns the team. But they do have a couple things going for them. First, they are obviously in the biggest TV market in the country. Second, their home court is considered the best venue in the league. Zion throwing down massive dunks in MSG? I'll sign up for that.

7. Orlando Magic (6.7%)

Depending on what the Magic do with Nikola Vucevic (free agent) and Aaron Gordon (tradeable asset) this off season, this could be a decent landing spot for Zion. The magic have needed a point guard for years, so they would probably be fine with getting the 2nd or 3rd pick and drafting Ja Morant, but if they did get Zion, Vucevic would be a great center to pair with Zion. However, Orlando has been a dumpster fire for years, and haven't been relevant since Dwight Howard left. I think Zion could follow Shaq and Dwight's lead and get out of there the first chance he gets.

8. Chicago Bulls (12.5%)

This is the part of the list where things are starting to get pretty dicey. The Bulls, like most of the teams on this list, are one of the worst run organizations in the NBA. They have made a habit of putting their players and coaches in horrible situations, setting them up to fail. They also have a promising young duo up front in Lauri Markkannen and Wendell Carter Jr. So how does Zion fit in here? I think he can play with Carter and Markkanen. Markkanen is good enough of a shooter to pull opposing bigs out of the paint on offense, and Zion is clearly mobile enough to defend on the perimeter. Don't get me wrong, I think Zion's future is at the power forward position, but perhaps while he's still got young legs, he can play a little small forward.

9. Detroit Pistons (3%)

With established veterans up front in Andre Drummond and Blake Griffin, there's not really a great basketball fit for Zion here, but I somewhat believe in the Pistons' front office, at least more than most of the teams on this list, and Dwayne Casey is a pretty good coach.

10. Cleveland Cavs (14%)

Dan Gilbert is arguably the least likable owner in sports, and the Cavs have won the lottery about 15 times in the past 10 years. They don't deserve Zion, and if they did get him, He'd be stuck in one of the worst situations (considering current and future assets) in the league. Please, anything but Cleveland.

Atlanta has a 12.5% chance to get the #1 pick?!

There is hope in the ATL!

[JasonEvans]

Hey Jason, what'd you think of my #1 preferred team for Zion on the previous page?

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-Jason "your Breaking Bad line was some truly sporkable material!" Evans

[BandAlum83]

Hey Jason, what'd you think of my #1 preferred team for Zion on the previous page?

Also, I think after this John Wall news, I'm retroactively moving the Wizards down my rankings, to #8 or so. John Wall willl probably never be the same player he once was, with multiple knee injuries and now a blown out Achilles. Very sad news for him. At least he signed that supermax before all this . . . that's going to be the worst contract in the league by far.

It could entice me to go in for Hawks season tickets again. I gave them up in 98 when the lockout happened and never went back.

Christian Laettner did factor into my decision to get the tickets. By the way, as an interesting aside, selling my 15th row center court tickets for Michael Jordan's last game at the Omni in Atlanta (before his second retirement) paid for the entire season.

[kAzE]

Atlanta has a 12.5% chance to get the #1 pick?!

There is hope in the ATL!

Their own pick currently has a 10.5% chance to win the lottery (there's almost no way they'll get into the top 3 to secure a 14% chance), but I added in the 2% from the Dallas pick.

[CDu]

Such are the vagaries of injuries in a league where star players are the most important commodity in the land. I mean, what if Steph Curry had been the guy to suffer the devastating knee injury in 2012 instead of Derrick Rose? We might be talking about another Bulls dynasty instead of a team in multi-season tank mode. What if James Harden tore his Achilles instead of John Wall? What if Giannis Antetokounmpo had been the one to miss multiple seasons instead of Kristaps Porzingis? What if... What if...

-Jason "the job of NBA GM is basically guess and pray... sometimes you get lucky, sometimes you get screwed" Evans

Too soon, Jason. Too soon .

But true nonetheless.

[kAzE]

1. Atlanta Hawks (12.5% to win the lottery)

The Hawks currently have 2 lottery picks, including Dallas' pick. Geographically, this is the closest NBA team to Zion's hometown of Spartanburg, SC.

Oops . . . slight self-correction before the nit pickers come out: Charlotte is actually closer to Spartanburg than Atlanta. Still, Atlanta's just a 2 hour and 54 minute drive from Spartanburg. Not too bad.

[JasonEvans]

Their own pick currently has a 10.5% chance to win the lottery (there's almost no way they'll get into the top 3 to secure a 14% chance), but I added in the 2% from the Dallas pick.

The Dallas pick is top 5 protected so if it hits, Luca and Kristaps get Zion, not the Hawks.

[kAzE]

The Dallas pick is top 5 protected so if it hits, Luca and Kristaps get Zion, not the Hawks.

Oh, good call Jason.

But holy crap . . . . there's a 2% chance of Luka, Zion, and Porzingis? I think Mark Cuban's face would implode from the grin he'd have on it over the deals he's made in the past 8 months.

Hey, here's Trae Young. You give me Luka Doncic and I still get Zion Williamson, okay?

I am 100% rooting for this 2% outcome, especially since I plan on moving to the Dallas/Forth Worth area within the next 2 years (for career/weather reasons, not because of anything basketball related lol). Would there be a more fun team to watch in the entire league? I honestly think not.

[elvis14]

If the Pelicans trade AD and bring in Ingram, then win the lottery:

Jah, Zion, Ingram, Frank, PG? (Ball)

That's a team I could get behind.

[Billy Dat]

I am 100% rooting for this 2% outcome, especially since I plan on moving to the Dallas/Forth Worth area within the next 2 years (for career/weather reasons, not because of anything basketball related lol). Would there be a more fun team to watch in the entire league? I honestly think not.

That would be a very fun team to watch.

In other news, as the Lakers/Pels talks around AD seem to have fallen off (for now!), it seems a good time to comment on the growing noise around the Lakers lack of player development. Nate Silver was just tweeting out the following:

@NateSilver538
IMO the whole key to the Anthony Davis saga is that, per our numbers, both Ball and Ingram have played to only the ~10th or 20th percentile of their preseason projections. They've stagnated, maybe even regressed, in a year when they were supposed to show a lot of development.
I should do the math on this more precisely, but the reduction in long-term expected value from Lonzo + Ingram (combined) works out to something like $35m in cap space per year, i.e. it's basically like losing a max-level player.
That just takes so much value off the table. If their development had been on track, then say Lonzo + Ingram + one 1st would have been a pretty fair offer for Davis. Maybe the Pelicans squeeze one more asset out, maybe even 2, but the trade happens & everyone feels pretty good.

I have heard others, including player development pioneer, David Thorpe, say much the same in recent weeks. It just goes to show how important a player's situation is for their future. Some players, like Lebron, are so great it doesn't matter. They will become great wherever they land. For most everyone else, a great situation, including a team devoted to player development, is so important. It is part of why i think the Nets are such a great place, as are the obvious places who do this well like San Antonio, Utah, etc. I hate when our Duke guys wind up in bad cultures and situations.

[ice-9]

I have Ball in my Fantasy team and can say with complete confidence that LeBron was a detriment to his game. Reduced Ball to a bad jump shooter. When LeBron was injured, Lonzo played much better. Wish there was an easy way to get the stats with and without, but the differences were quite stark.

[CDu]

I have Ball in my Fantasy team and can say with complete confidence that LeBron was a detriment to his game. Reduced Ball to a bad jump shooter. When LeBron was injured, Lonzo played much better. Wish there was an easy way to get the stats with and without, but the differences were quite stark.

Yeah, Ball is possibly the worst fit for a pairing with LeBron. His value is generated basically entirely from doing the things that LeBron does. Only LeBron does them SO much better (and does more things too). His game is somewhat useless off ball. It is one of the reasons I expected him to get moved eventually, if not as of last offseason. You just aren’t going to maximize either player’s value with that pairing. Not that LeBron can’t succeed next to Ball, but it is easier if the “PG” with LeBron can shoot. And as noted having LeBron basically neutered Ball because his off-ball game stinks.